Matt Yglesias

Breaking Down the Divisions

Here’s a useful table to contemplate now that we’re in NFL playoff season:

Apparently the two West divisions were the worst, and second-worst performances since the AFL-NFL merger. He then offers us some questionable statistical analysis under the guise of elucidated “conspicuous trends” from the history of this data:

The most compelling of these is that 26 of the 37 Super Bowl winners since the merger came from divisions that placed in the top three in win percentage during that season. This trend gets even stronger if the start year is moved to 1977, as 25 of the 30 world champions in that time hailed from one of the top three divisions based on win percentage. This trend stretched beyond Super Bowl champs, as 42 of the 72 conference champions since the merger came from the top three divisions. (These numbers don’t include the 1982 season because divisional play was not used that year.)

The historical evidence also shows strong indications for playoff teams that come from the bottom divisions. There were six divisions from 1970 through 2001, and only one time during that era did a team that came from the division with the worst win percentage win a Super Bowl (1999 St. Louis Rams). In fact, playoff teams from the sixth division during those years won only 24 playoff games, and seven of those were wild-card victories.

Another way of looking at this is that good teams tend to win the Super Bowl, good teams tend to have very good regular season records, and since NFL divisions are small having a very good team in your division tends to pull your division’s overall record upward.

The Price We Pay

Obviously, if I were a Patriots fan I’d be outraged at the idea of missing the playoffs after an 11-5 record while an 8-8 team out of the NFC West gets in. And even a Colts fan has a right to think it’s a bit silly that my 12-4 team will need to play on the road against an 8-8 division winner. But I think it would be a mistake for the NFL to try to fix that particular “problem.”

For starters, you have to recognize that it’s not as if we have a plague of this sort of thing happening all the time. If it were happening constantly, you really might want to address it. But we’re looking at a somewhat flukey outcome. Whereas on the flipside, the benefits to fans of the NFL’s heavy focus on the division accrue each and every week. One of the most fun aspects of being an NFL fan is that precisely because of these division phenomena not only are all of your team’s games important, but you have a strong rooting interest in all games involving any of your squad’s three division rivals. It creates more fun over the long haul.

Meanwhile, this isn’t like the NBA where the divisions are meaningless lines on a piece of paper. An AFC East team and an AFC West team will have played very different schedules, so it’s completely legitimate to say there’s no need to make a head-to-head comparison of records from amidst different divisions. It’s true that common sense tells you New England had, in fact, a harder overall schedule. But again to think beyond this one season to the level of general systems, once you start making subjective judgments about strength of schedule you’re slipping toward BCS nonsense. The NFL has an objective system with clear rules (well, clear rules plus obscure tie-breakers) that serves us well the vast majority of seasons — don’t mess with a good thing.

Redskins FAIL

Wow. That game was excruciating to watch. Not just losing, or even especially getting blown out, but really being ground down into nothing in a depressing way. May Tuesday night go better than Monday.

Pittsburgh FAIL

Turns out you need to make sure your backup long snapper has practiced throwing the long snap. Just saying.

Tom Brady

Everyone knows I wish nothing but suffering on Boston sports fans, but I think I’m getting soft in my old age and can’t quite bring myself to root for Tom Brady’s injury to turn out severe. Humanitarian considerations aside, that wouldn’t at all be the right way for a great dynasty to go down.