Matt Yglesias

The Napolitano Future

There’s some interest in what becoming Homeland Security Secretary would mean for Janet Napolitano’s prospects as a Senate candidate. I would imagine that it will only mean good things. Nothing about running DHS prevents her from running for Senate in 2010 or, indeed, from running against John Kyl in 2012. Indeed, being at DHS is probably better to set up a 2012 run, and given that John McCain says he’s not retiring, that’s her better shot.

But beyond all that, note that she’s getting out as governor of Arizona while the going is still good. Being a governor of any state in 2009 is going to be ugly. It’s going to be all about cutting spending and raising taxes, while dealing with increased demand for public assistance and in all likelihood rising crime rates. Arizona was a major real estate bubble state, so it’s going to be especially unfun. It’s also a state that’s been in some respects benefiting economically from the war in Iraq, making things even worse. She’s very popular right now, though, and if she gets out and manages to bring about some improvements at DHS she’ll stay popular.

Mac Wants to be Back Again

I’d been assuming that John McCain wouldn’t run for Senate again in 2010. For one thing, defeated presidential nominees tend not to want to hang around the halls of the Senate (witness John Kerry’s desperate quest for a cabinet position). For another thing, he’s really old — if he gets re-elected in 2010, he’ll be eighty by the time the term ends. On top of which, he has a really great life — eight houses, thirteen cars, all the rest. Why not enjoy it?

Lurking in the background as the obvious challenger is Arizona governor Janet Napolitano who got re-elected in 2006 and is broadly popular in the state. Of course, McCain’s popular, too. It’d be an interesting matchup to watch. Despite his long service in congress, the 2008 presidential election was the first time in his life that he faced a competitive race against a Democrat (he had a tough primary to get into the House, and of course noteworthy primary campaigns in 2000 and 2008). It didn’t go very well. 2010 would be a second bite at the apple.

Time for a Change

2010 Arizona Senate trial heat Napolitano 53%, McCain 45%. Early polling has little value, but this kind of early weakness is the hallmark of a beatable candidate. Of course my assumption is that McCain won’t actually be running for re-election.