Matt Yglesias

The Bush Family Stamping on a Human Face Forever

Faiz Shakir has George P. Bush laying the groundwork for his presidential primary big in 2032 or 2036:

Afterward, Bush said he doesn’t think Crist is a fiscal conservative and that he may have hurt himself with some Republicans for his appearance with Obama and his support of the stimulus plan.

“That will be on his track record and people are going to remember that,” Bush said, adding that Crist is running the risk of falling in the “D light” category of the party.

Just remember, the last time the Republican Party captured the White House without a member of the Bush family on the ticket was 1972. It’s true that right now people hate the Bushes. But people hated the Bushes in 1993, too. The country has a short memory, and for some reason the GOP just can’t quit these people. It’ll be Jeb in 2016 and George P. somewhere down the line.

Unleashing Chiang

Since I had to read some classes about the Korean War in college, I know what a reference to “unleashing Chiang” means. But I would easily forgive a person for not knowing. It’s slightly obscure, and many people don’t know about the early days of the conservative movement in which they were every bit as crazy as they are today, but it wasn’t considered fashionable to pretend they weren’t crazy. But as Brad DeLong argues it takes a special kind of idiot to be going around making references to “unleashing Chiang” while having absolutely no idea what you’re talking about.

And yet here’s Jeb Bush, the less stupid of George H.W. Bush’s sons:

Bush then unsheathed a golden sword and gave it to Rubio as a gift. “I’m going to bestow to you the sword of a great conservative warrior,” he said, as the crowd roared. The crowd, however, could be excused for not understanding Bush’s enigmatic foray into the realm of Eastern mysticism. We’re here to help. In a 1989 Washington Post article on the politics of tennis, former President George Bush was quoted as threatening to “unleash Chang” as a means of intimidating other players. The saying was apparently quite popular with Gov. Bush’s father, and referred to a legendary warrior named Chang who was called upon to settle political disputes in Chinese dynasties of yore. The phrase has evolved, under Gov. Jeb Bush’s use, to mean the need to fix conflicts or disagreements over an issue. Faced with a stalemate, the governor apparently “unleashes Chang” as a rhetorical device, signaling it’s time to stop arguing and start agreeing. No word on if Rubio will unleash Chang, or the sword, as he faces squabbles in the future.

Jeb is badly confused here. His father wasn’t going to “unleash Chang” he was going to “unleash Chiang.” And “Chiang” wasn’t an ancient Chinese warrior, he was a mid-twentieth century would-be dictator of China. Jeb’s dad was making a joke about the wingnuts within his own party, the MacArthur and McCarthy followers who believed that the Truman administration administration was deliberately failing to defeat Chinese Communism by keeping Chiang locked up in Taiwan.

And just remember: Jeb Bush will be President of the United States one day. Most likely in 2016, but possibly in 2012 or 2020 depending on the course of events. The Republicans are bound to win one of these days, and they just can’t quit to Bush family.

America’s Next Bush

Make no mistake about it, Jeb Bush will be President of the United States someday. Ryan Powers has the video of Poppy mulling the concept:

Now it’s true that the extreme unpopularity of George W. Bush might be a problem here. But consider the 1992 election:

Bush got 37.45 percent of the popular vote — slightly less than George McGovern. Among major party nominees, only William Howard Taft in 1912 turned in a worse performance. And not only was Bush hugely unpopular with the electorate at large, he was also hated by the GOP base. When the base doesn’t like you and swing voters don’t like you, you have a problem. What’s more, as of 2000 everybody already knew that W. Bush was dumber and less accomplished than his dad or than Jeb. But he got elected anyway. So don’t think the fact that people hate our current president will stand in Jeb’s way.

Besides, what choice does the GOP have? The last time they captured the White House without a Bush on the ticket was 1972 — eons ago. Without a Bush, they’ve got nothing. My guess is that it’ll take until 2016 for it to happen, but it could be 2012 or 2020 depending on how things develop in the world.

Looking Ahead

May I just say that I, for one, am really looking forward to the 2012 GOP primary. Republicans almost always wind up going with the candidate who’s “next in line.” Thus, this year’s GOP race went through some unpredictable twists and turns but ultimately wound up where one would have expected far in advance — with next in line John McCain taking the ring. But if McCain wins, it’s not really clear who’s next in line. Both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have a solid case to make that they finished second in the primaries. And then there’s Sarah Palin.

And in a lot of respects I think Palin’s emergence has helped make Huckabee look really good. Months ago, he was this social conservative darling with undeniable political talent and a seemingly weak grasp of national policy. But compared to Palin, the guy looks like the most knowledgeable candidate on the planet. And while he has a lot of Palin’s small town charm, he’s actually charming enough that a lot of city slickers find him pretty charming too (sign me up). He’ll have a few years, and a Fox News show, to try to improve his command of various issues and then you could see him being a quite formidable contender. If, that is, he can find a fundraising base.

And then there’s Jeb, America’s next Bush waiting in the wings.