Matt Yglesias

How Long? Not Long

Bruce Bartlett has a column lamenting the poor outlook for the Republican Party that concludes with this:

Eventually, Republicans will tire of being out of power just as Democrats did, and they will do what it takes to win. But I fear that Republicans will have to at least lose in 2010 and again in 2012 before they start to come to their senses. Perhaps by 2014, some leader with maturity, resources, vision and discipline will find a way of leading the GOP out of the wilderness. But I see no one even in a position to start that process today.

I think that’s probably right. Then again, I’m not sure that outlook is so bleak. After kinda sorta losing in 2000, some thought the lesson was that Democrats were way too liberal. Folks like Will Marshall and Mark Penn warned that they had to turn much more conservative in order to win elections. Their warnings went only semi-heeded and, consequently, Democrats lost ground in 2002 and lost more ground in 2004. But guess what? By 2008 they had strong congressional majorities and a popular new president ready to support universal health care, tough action to limit greenhouse gas pollution, a public more supportive than ever of equal rights for gays and lesbians, etc., etc.

Looking at the Republican side, the electoral map is just very bad for them in the 2010 Senate race no matter what they do. And the odds are that we’ll be in an economic recovery by 2012 that the voters will credit Obama for and he’ll get re-elected. But by 2014, the Senate electoral map will be bad for Democrats. Who wins in 2016? It has more to do with what’s happening in 2016 than with what the candidate says.

The problem with the conservative positions pushed by Bush and DeLay and Lott & McConnell and now McConnell & Lott and Boehner and Cantor and Pence isn’t that they’re “unelectable” positions it’s that they don’t work as a governing agenda. That’s bad for the country and also means that if they do get back into office, they’ll run things back into the ditch and probably get voted out again.

The Bush Family Stamping on a Human Face Forever

Faiz Shakir has George P. Bush laying the groundwork for his presidential primary big in 2032 or 2036:

Afterward, Bush said he doesn’t think Crist is a fiscal conservative and that he may have hurt himself with some Republicans for his appearance with Obama and his support of the stimulus plan.

“That will be on his track record and people are going to remember that,” Bush said, adding that Crist is running the risk of falling in the “D light” category of the party.

Just remember, the last time the Republican Party captured the White House without a member of the Bush family on the ticket was 1972. It’s true that right now people hate the Bushes. But people hated the Bushes in 1993, too. The country has a short memory, and for some reason the GOP just can’t quit these people. It’ll be Jeb in 2016 and George P. somewhere down the line.

America’s Next Bush

Make no mistake about it, Jeb Bush will be President of the United States someday. Ryan Powers has the video of Poppy mulling the concept:

Now it’s true that the extreme unpopularity of George W. Bush might be a problem here. But consider the 1992 election:

Bush got 37.45 percent of the popular vote — slightly less than George McGovern. Among major party nominees, only William Howard Taft in 1912 turned in a worse performance. And not only was Bush hugely unpopular with the electorate at large, he was also hated by the GOP base. When the base doesn’t like you and swing voters don’t like you, you have a problem. What’s more, as of 2000 everybody already knew that W. Bush was dumber and less accomplished than his dad or than Jeb. But he got elected anyway. So don’t think the fact that people hate our current president will stand in Jeb’s way.

Besides, what choice does the GOP have? The last time they captured the White House without a Bush on the ticket was 1972 — eons ago. Without a Bush, they’ve got nothing. My guess is that it’ll take until 2016 for it to happen, but it could be 2012 or 2020 depending on how things develop in the world.

America’s Next Bush

Mark Schmitt looks forward to the end of the dynasties of yesteryear:

And so one of the gratifying effects of tonight’s results is that all of that is over. There are no more Doles. No more Bushes. (Unless Jeb rears his head, or one of the grandchildren, but I think they will have to campaign despite their name rather than because of it.) No more McCains. No more Sununus

Instead, by 2024 a majority of seats in the U.S. Senate will be controlled by the related Smith and Udall families.

But seriously, I wouldn’t count Bush out yet! After all, the last GOP ticket to win the Presidency without a Bush on the ballot was Nixon-Agnew in 1972. Republicans can’t win without Ohio and they can’t win without Bush. Recall that in 1992, Bush père got a McGovernesque 37 percent of the vote while alienating his base and apparently destroying the conservative coalition that had dominated American politics for twelve years. It only took seven years from that defeat for conservative elites around the country to reach the conclusion that what America needed was his dimwitted son. If Obama has a reasonably successful first time and gets re-election, maybe the right will decide that the smarter, more accomplished Bush is the way to go. Meanwhile, consider that if Jeb had won his 1994 race, he would likely have been the 2000 GOP nominee and it’s at least possible he would have been a much better President.