Votes are Tough for Republicans, Too
One of the oddest aspects of the legislative splits of the 111th Congress is that we’ve heard a ton about the political risks run by Democratic members who represent McCain-friendly districts who vote for the Obama agenda, but basically nothing about the risks facing Republicans from Obama-friendly districts who vote for the GOP leadership’s agenda’s of blocking everything. Take, for example, Representative Mike Castle of Delaware. Barack Obama got 62 percent of the vote in his at-large district. John Kerry got 53 percent. Al Gore got 55 percent. Bill Clinton got 52 percent in 1996. Castle only survives in the House because he has a reputation as a moderate. What’s more, he’s planning on running for Joe Biden’s old Senate seat. To win this seat, he clearly needs to convince people that he wouldn’t just be a rubber-stamp for a national Republican Party that can’t win anything in Delaware. And yet here he is voting against health reform. A big risk!
Beyond Castle and Joseph Cao who voted “yes” there are 33 other House Republicans representing Obama districts. And there used to be 34 until the Democrats won the open, but previously GOP-held, NY-23 seat. Some of these were narrow, but a bunch went heavily for Obama. He won 58 percent of the vote in Jim Gerlach’s PA-6, while Gerlach won just 52 percent. Obama got 56 percent in WA-8, and 61 percent in Mark Kirk’s IL-10. Meanwhile Kirk, like Castle, is vacating his seat to run statewide in a blue state. Under normal conditions you expect a popular incumbent president to win more bipartisan support for his initiatives. But that’s precisely because under normal conditions you expect legislators in this kind of situation to be afraid of defying the president. After all, Obama continues to be much more popular than the Republican leaders to whom these blue districts House GOPers are being so slavishly loyal.
16 Responses to “Votes are Tough for Republicans, Too”
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November 9th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
How do you find these voting splits by congressional district? I’ve tried asking google but I can’t seem to get the search string right.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
I think it will be interesting to see if Castle goes down in flames with an elephant-shaped anvil around his neck, and if so, what effect that will have on the behavior of blue-district/state Republicans in future cycles.
Right now I think they’re more afraid of becoming the next Specter than of becoming the next Santorum — which is odd because Specter is still in the Senate and Santorum, well, isn’t. (I’m sure there was a cushy wingnut welfare job waiting for him on the other side of the revolving door, but the fact remains that he didn’t take early retirement on purpose.)
November 9th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
After all, Obama continues to be much more popular than the Republican leaders to whom these blue districts House GOPers are being so slavishly loyal.
Except that Obama’s health care plan is unpopular. So you have to ask – what is more salient to the voters when reviewing Castle’s or Kirk’s vote on the matter – that Obama is popular, or than Obama’s health care plan is unpopular? I’d think the latter.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Also of note is that the public disapproves (narrowly) of Obama’s handling of the health care issue.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
There are also a lot of Republicans in district where 35%+ of the people lack health insurance. Pete Sessions is one. This strikes me a a powerful campaign issue once people believe that it will help them.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
We’re not talking about the leadership of a party, we’re talking about their base, which now appears to be a group of angry, heavily-armed, crazy people.
I dunno about you, Matt, but growing up before Giuliani, my parents always taught me to stay the hell away from people like that, and if you absolutely have to deal with them, do what you need to get them to calm the fuck down.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Sure, Al, but a lot of them are single-payer advocates, etc. I disapprove strongly.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
Is that Dave Letterman’s peculiar looking cousin?
November 9th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
Al hasn’t been reading the part where we’re all pissed off at Obama right now.
Without doing research, I find it hard to believe that “we” “protect” many of the 39 no votes. However, I’ll bet half of those 33 Republicans lose. I mean, there won’t be coattails, but there’re a lot of formerly moderate Repubs who’ll be tarnished by obstructionism.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Gerlach is also running statewide in his (at least) blue-tilting state. Though Obama only took 54.7% of the vote in PA, so it could be a friendlier environment than Gerlach’s district. On the other hand, people elsewhere in PA aren’t as used to voting as Gerlach.
Of course the Republicans are all afraid of getting Scozzafavaed, but I can’t help thinking that Castle at least is stamping Beau Biden’s ticket to the Senate. The ad writes itself: “Mike Castle: Just Another Republican.”
November 9th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
Under normal conditions you expect a popular incumbent president to win more bipartisan support for his initiatives. But that’s precisely because under normal conditions you expect legislators in this kind of situation to be afraid of defying the president.
Care to postulate on why it may be the case that these Republicans felt they could defy Obama? What’s the motivation? Is this post a criticism of the White House or an indictment of South Carolina?
November 10th, 2009 at 12:54 am
I think a couple of factors play into their decisions, most of which have already been mentioned (fear of base in primary). But I also think party loyalty plays into these decisions. The GOP is a much more unified party, at least with respect to its congressional wing. Also, for someone like Castle, I am not sure that being on the wrong side of health care reform will tarnish his moderate image. He’s been around DE forever, and though voters do display recency effects, I question how powerful they are compared to his long history.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:23 am
Castle’s “district” is the entire state of Delaware, which probably makes the House to Senate transition a bit easier. He won over 60% of the vote in 2008, suggesting he is still pretty popular statewide.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:16 am
http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/10/14/DE/395
A poll and October shows Biden and Castle with a statistical tie at 45 and 46, with Castle carrying 21% of the Democratic vote. It’s long way to election day, but I think Castle will have a tough time.
Castle voting against health care reform, and voting for the Stupak amendment(a questionable decision as a pro-choice Republican) will certainly rile up the base and leave plenty of ammunition for attack ads.
http://www.delawareliberal.net/
November 10th, 2009 at 10:57 am
The GOP is a much more unified party, at least with respect to its congressional wing.
I think the elephant in the room here (so to speak) is the revolving door: that river of corporate/lobbyist cash is only available to those who remain in good standing with the conservative movement and still have some credibility with their ex-colleagues after leaving office. Losing your election, even getting indicted, is fine, but nobody is going to offer a plum lobbying job to Scozzafava.
*That’s* why being Scozzafavaed is worse than defeat, and that’s why Republicans fear it more than defeat.
I don’t think the Dems can duplicate that because the party and its funding are more decentralized, but in addition, I’m not sure they should really want to because the whole system of the modern right is so thoroughly corrupt that imitating it would risk turning the Dems into what they are trying to oppose.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
For Delaware, you have to read the Dem/Rep registration figures with a grain of salt. In the 2008 Delaware governor’s race, the only real contest was the democratic primary between the Lieutenant Governor and the state Treasurer. A lot of republicans changed their party registration to democratic so they would be allowed to vote in the primary. The winner of the primary (Jack Markell, the state treasurer) went on to trounce the token republican opposition in the general election. Much of the democratic advantage in voter registration consists of former republicans who just changed their registration last year to vote in the primary — they’re not necessarily committed democrats. That said, Delaware Republicans, historically, are somewhat less conservative/more “moderate” than the national party — hence a “moderate Republican” like Mike Castle….