The Demographics of Unemployment
Interactive feature from The New York Times lets you see the unemployment rate for different demographic subgroups. The feature is labeled “The Jobless Rate for People Like You” so I checked and saw that white men aged 25-44 with college degrees have an unemployment rate of just 3.9 percent. Even if I reclassify myself as Hispanic it’s just 4.8 percent. Fortunately, I’m also allowed to see how people who aren’t like me are doing. Thus we learn that for African-American men aged 15-24 the unemployment rate is a staggering 30.5 percent. Even for the subset of young black men who have college degrees (which has to be a pretty tiny slice of the 15-24 set) the unemployment rate is 12.7 percent.
In general, unemployment is higher for the young than the old higher for the worse-educated than for the better educated, higher for men than for women, and higher for blacks than whites.
45 Responses to “The Demographics of Unemployment”
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November 9th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
That Keynesian Hoax in practice is sure rough on minorities, eh?
November 9th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Now factor in violent crime as an occupation and blacks do much much better in employment.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
I’ve always wondered about these statistics. Could someone devise a method of weeding out the “I don’t really give a damn about holding down a job or being a productive member of society” subset of people. Sure, they have the “no longer looking” category but that can’t capture the purposefully, dedicated unemployed. What is that number?
November 9th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Going to be hard to get that bloc of the base motivated to vote Dem in 2010 and 2012. :/
John
November 9th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Thus we learn that for African-American men aged 15-24 the unemployment rate is a staggering 30.5 percent. Even for the subset of young black men who have college degrees (which has to be a pretty tiny slice of the 15-24 set) the unemployment rate is 12.7 percent.
That clearly has to do with factors other than macroeconomic conditions. We can observe that education levels are highly correlated with IQ. Thus, the greater levels of unemployment among the uneducated are at least partially attributable to differences in intelligence. Since African-American IQ levels are a full standard deviation below the mean, we can conclude that this is a major factor in unemployment levels. Further, owing to the pernicious effects of affirmative action, even college educated African-Americans are likely to be much less intelligent than their white or asian counterparts. Thus, it is not surprising that they have high levels of unemployment relative to other college graduates.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
“Even for the subset of young black men who have college degrees (which has to be a pretty tiny slice of the 15-24 set) the unemployment rate is 12.7 percent.”
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation (PDF file), for AA men 18-29, 7.6% are college graduates, v. 17.3% for haoles. I’ll leave collecting and teasing out the 15-24 y.o. data as an exercise for the reader.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
…and, since discovering the baseline biases of the current “Steve Sailer” commenter, I can safely dispense with any consideration of his posts.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Why can’t it? I don’t understand the distinction.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
I don’t know that anyone bothers to find that number, but it isn’t included in the employment or unemployment numbers. They would fall into the same batch as stay at home parents, the idle rich and a wide variety of other people who are not considered part of the workforce.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
What is a “college degree”; does a two-year degree count?
November 9th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
“What is a “college degree”; does a two-year degree count?”
Typically, no. A four year degree is the assumption.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
More evidence of the liberal bias of the MSM. Letting people see unemployment data from demographics other than their own creates empathy, which is the necessary precursor to socialism.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Unless they use the U6 numbers the chart underestimates groups such as the self-employed, and those who have given up looking for work.
The 4+% for older males does not accurately reflect the this sector which has been hit hard.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Steve Sailer’s claims @ #5 are entirely credible. His belief that black people are typically stupid involves no racism whatsoever.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Sailer, I gotta ask, what is it you want? What’s the end-point? I really, sincerly want to know What Should Be Done.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
What is a “college degree”; does a two-year degree count?
Good question. I poked around on the Census website, but from their definitions of “College Enrollment” and “Educational Attainment,” it seems they keep separate data on the two, but they include two-year programs under the broader category of “college.”
http://www.census.gov/population/www/cps/cpsdef.html
November 9th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Sincerel. Oi.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
That reminds me: what’s the unemployment rate for dumb crackers who spend all their time bitching about negroes?
November 9th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Argghh. What happened to the Y?
November 9th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Depends.
I would guess that “African-Americans” who are actually West and East African immigrants or children of such immigrants – or West Indian/Commonwealth – probably have an even smaller unemployment rate than comparatively educated whites.
For all the stereotypes of Jewish and Asian parents, the most driven, almost psychotically obsessed with education parents of my friends were the former two groups.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Once again, the quote above from “Steve Sailer” is not by me.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Notice that if you keep the white male college graduate and select 15-24 the unemployment doubles. Not a good time to just finish school.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Also black men who aren’t high school graduates have a 48.5 percent unemployment rate and was at 35 percent in 2007.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
You know, I am far from a fan of Steve Sailer (indeed, my general opinion of the guy is how can a reasonably intelligent person who often makes erudite points on other issues be so completely fouled up on racial issues), but he’s entitled to post his own opinions without sock puppetry. Maybe CAP needs to install some sort of password system to stop this stuff.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Dear Dilan:
Thanks.
I would guess that goal of the impostor is to post a number of number of items that sound more or less like me, then to start introducing under my name the n-word, endorsements of Hitler, and the like.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
Why do the African American numbers start at age 15? Really, what is the justification here? And why is the white spread so large? Don’t you think there is a big difference between a 24 year old recent college grad and a 44 year old college grad working in the field for 2 decades? Isn’t this a case of making the numbers say what you want them to say?
November 9th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Re: Sure, they have the “no longer looking” category but that can’t capture the purposefully, dedicated unemployed. What is that number?
Unless they are looking for work those people are not counted at all, just as retirees, stay-at-home spouses, convicts in prison, and children are not counted.
Re: Going to be hard to get that bloc of the base motivated to vote Dem in 2010 and 2012.
Are you seriously suggesting they will be voting Republican, when the GOP has morphed into the Bitchy Old White People’s Party?
Re: The 4+% for older males does not accurately reflect the this sector which has been hit hard.
I suspect that’s more myth than reality. Yes, 55 year olds who get laid off have it tough finding a new job, but in reality rather few of them are being laid off (and it’s mainly the blue collar guys getting the axe when it is).
November 9th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
“Thus we learn that for African-American men aged 15-24 the unemployment rate is a staggering 30.5 percent.”
A couple posts ago everyone was going on about how we need more immigration. I wonder what effect that would have on the employment level of our low-skilled workers.
November 9th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Perhaps the most tragic American paradox of the last half century is that as the legal and social restrictions hindering black economic advancement diminished and a sizable black middle class emerged, a large fraction of black men dropped out of the workforce and/or went to prison.
Harvard economist George Borjas and two colleagues note that from 1960 to 2000:
“The employment rate of black men in the United States fell precipitously from 89.6 percent in 1960 to 76.1 percent in 2000…”
In particular, for black male high school dropouts, the exit from the job market was catastrophic:
“… the employment rate of black high school dropouts fell by 33 percentage points, from 88.6 to 55.7 percent, as compared to an 18 percentage point drop for white high school dropouts, from 94.1 to 76.0 percent.”
For black male high school dropouts, the historic surge in imprisonment staggers the imagination:
“Among [black male] high school dropouts with 1 to 30 years of experience, for example, the incarceration rate was 1.4 percent in 1960, 1.3 percent in 1980, 14.3 percent in 1990, and an astounding 25.1 percent in 2000.”
Based on his statistical analysis, Borjas concludes:
“The economic adjustments unleashed by the large 1980-2000 immigrant influx, a labor supply shock that increased the number of workers in the United States by nearly 10 percent and the number of high school dropouts by over 20 percent, reduced the employment rate of black men by about 5.0 percentage points. …
“Immigration, therefore, accounts for about a third of the 17.1 percentage point decline in black employment rates. Similarly, the changes in economic opportunities caused by the 1980-2000 immigrant influx raised the incarceration rate of black high school dropouts by 1.7 percentage points, accounting for almost 10 percent of the 19.5 percentage point increase observed during that period.”
http://papers.nber.org/papers/w12518
November 9th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
> but he’s entitled to post his own opinions
> without sock puppetry. M
The fake Sailer in the last thread was a bit obvious. But while I imagine in Sailer’s mind there is some subtle and significant difference between what was posted in #5 and the bulk of posts from the presumably real Sailer, I certainly cannot see what that difference is.
And Ha!’s question at #15 is quite cogent, fake Sailer-man or no.
Cranky
November 9th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
The fake Sailer in the last thread was a bit obvious. But while I imagine in Sailer’s mind there is some subtle and significant difference between what was posted in #5 and the bulk of posts from the presumably real Sailer, I certainly cannot see what that difference is.
It seems to me that makes the sock puppetry worse, though. It’s precisely because the sock puppet is spouting opinions that are opinions that might plausibly be associated with Sailer, but which Sailer actually doesn’t hold, that it is so defamatory.
The bottom line, though, is that I really don’t care what the fake Steve Sailer said. If someone came into a comments thread and posted opinions under my name that I didn’t hold, I’d be pissed. Sock puppetry of this sort is unfair, defamatory, and shouldn’t exist, and that’s true whatever you think of the views of the person who is being impersonated.
November 9th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
The “All other races” category reminds me of the Simpsons’ Reverend Lovejoy:
“God was working in all of our hearts, be it Christian, Jewish, or miscellaneous.”
November 9th, 2009 at 8:59 pm
I don’t think it’s sock puppetry, it’s very good satire. I can tell pretty easily and consistently it’s not the real Sailer — it’s always very obviously over the top — and I’m only a casual visitor to these threads. After my eyes pop out because I can’t believe he actually wrote that, I realize it’s a joke and chuckle. So, in an indirect way, Sailer’s brought me a tiny bit of pleasure. Who would have thought that was possible?
November 9th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
I don’t think it’s sock puppetry, it’s very good satire. I can tell pretty easily and consistently it’s not the real Sailer
You don’t need to misrepresent the identity of the poster to do satire, though. Just label the post “Treve Trailer” or something similar. Then everyone knows it’s satire and if it’s funny, we all have a laugh at Sailer’s expense.
I think the purpose of this poster is NOT to simply satarize Sailer, but to attribute extreme opinions to him. And that is fairly labeled a form of sock puppetry.
November 9th, 2009 at 9:27 pm
> I think the purpose of this poster is NOT to
> simply satarize Sailer, but to attribute extreme
> opinions to him.
Huh? The purported real Sailer’s opinions on race, IQ, etc. are not extreme?
Cranky
November 9th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
One thing that i think everyone can agree on is that in a country of 300 million it is very hard to tell exactly how many people are out of work.Any statistic is never going to be exact and most statistics should be taken with a grain of salt.
One other thing to realise is that many people with low incomes tend to work in jobs that don’t last long.Small stores in strip malls are always opening and then going out of business a few monthes later.And even the large construction companies are constantly laying off people when a big project is done.And then hiring more people a couple of weeks or monthes later when another project starts.Construction ,retail and the restraunt businiess are all very volatile.Even during the good times.And they are the industries in which many lower income people work.
In my opinion this means that during the good economic times the number of people who are working is probably more than the official statistics say.But when times get bad the reverse is true and the statistics minimise the true rate of unemployment.
I am not just talking about under the table jobs either.Many people in urban areas work for small businesses.And these businesses are constantly having to lay off people or cut hours even in the good times
November 9th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
Huh? The purported real Sailer’s opinions on race, IQ, etc. are not extreme?
So you think that because someone holds extreme opinion X, it is perfectly permissible to attribute to him extreme opinions Y and Z that he does not hold?
November 9th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
For the record i would have to agree with Dilan Esper. No matter how anyone [including myself] feels about his political opinions ,he does have a right to post on here without being impersonated.If someone disagrees with Steve Sailor then by all means they should debate him.But they should debate him , not a caricture or strawman of him.
November 9th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
Having made comment #38 , i would now like to respectfully disagree with MR Sailor.I understand the point he is making about allowing too many low -skill immigrants in.And i myself think that we should be allowing in more skilled immigrants.
Having said that i think it should be pointed out that a Salvadorian who gets a job laying brick in the suburbs of Washington DC, is hardly stealing a job from an unemployed black guy in Detroit.
The fact is that Immigrants tend to go to where the jobs are.Natives tend to stay put for a number of reasons.Because of family connections[ when you have a low income you defintly need your mom's help looking after your kids].Plus many blue collar people depend on an informal support system in their neighborhood.This support system can consist of friends or family helping look after each others kids.Or people helping each other get hired.In most low wage jobs you will always find two or more family members working for the same company.
Latino immigrants do as well.But their support system is in their new communities.They look up old friends and neighbors or family members when they come to America.
MR Sailor , i am not denying that immigration has an effect on employment levels.But i feel that it has much less an effect than you think.
I myself am currently out of work.The reason that i am not picking grapes in California right now is not because some latino stole the job from me.Nor is it because i am lazy or unwilling to pick grapes[ for the record i am not on unemployment or any other government benifit].
The reason that i am not picking grapes in California is that it makes no sense for me to go across the country for a two week job bringing in the harvest,especially when i wouldn’t even begin to know where to look for that type of job or where to look for temporary housing.That is why those jobs are dominated by immigrants.
Best regards to you MR Sailor
November 9th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
For the record, count me in with Dilan Esper. I’d rather debate Real Steve Sailer instead of constantly having to figure out whether I’m dealing with Real Steve Sailer or Fake Steve Sailer. Real Steve Sailer’s ideas are frequently odious on their own, but I fail to see how it helps to confuse matters by sending out a bunch of decoys.
Go ahead and make fun of the guy when he deserves it, but let his ideas stand or fall on their own.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:25 am
Here’s the piece on youth job creation I promised a while back.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:59 am
StevenAttewell
Thanks Steven. I couldn’t agree more. Men with axes, brooms, and shovels is all anyone thinks of when they think “government works programs.”
Right Wing thinkers/economists have been pounding the idea for so long that government jobs are nothing but “busy” jobs that Left Wing thinker/economists have docilely bought the notion hook, line, and sinker. Nothing depresses me or infuriates me more.
And then we continually get the Soviet Command Comparison. That’s been going on since I was kid. “Yes, the Soviets had impressive GDP gains from bla bla date to bla bla date, certainly above 3rd world levels, but their GDP levels never really approached the West, DID THEY?! And remember too, the Commies always had to wait in long lines for staples like stale bread and canned sardines, and, in the end… STATE FAILURE!!!”
Who gives a shit about the Soviets. They were a bunch a fuck-ups. What are the Chinese doing? That is a better question. They certainly have a centrally planned economy, with constant government works projects coming out of the pipeline the scale and magnitude of which we can only dream, and yet all throughout the interior of China, ruthless, classical, Capitalistic competition is raging on such a level as would make Silicon Valley blush.
The point is: when China gets in trouble, they focus on building something. The don’t focus on jobs, necessarily, like everybody thinks. Jobs follow. And they don’t fall into the “busy projects” trap like the lost-decade-or-two Japanese. No, when the Chinese leadership sees they are deficient in technological expertise in Area X, the build Area X University. When it becomes clear that Province Y is going to go dry in the year 2025, they build Province Y Aqueduct.
And the key to whole concept of Centrally Planned Capitalism -is banking. China’s four BIG BIG BANKS are controlled, more or less, by the government. All the Big 4’s top honchos are appointed by the government and must report to the government. They work under extremely strict capital requirements, and yet each bank is loaning out hundreds of billions of dollars every year to private investors, perhaps because over the last 12 months, for instance, they have taken in four dollars for every three they have lent out! That’s right, China’s Big 4 Banks are leveraged out right now at 3:4, quite a difference from the heart-attack inducing 30:1 of American banks, wouldn’t you say? And they are China-centric investment banks first and foremost, not Black Jack double-down Casino banks that help nobody. PITCHFORKS!
To make long story short, this country, this rapidly dying good ole US of A of ours, will need a Smart Grid with tied in Wind Farms at some point -in order to survive. It also needs a bank. Its own Green Investment Bank. And its citizens need good, secure, life-steadying jobs with benefits. I see an ultimate match in there some where.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:51 am
> Pete from Baltimore
> For the record i would have to agree with Dilan Esper.
> No matter how anyone [including myself] feels about his
> political opinions ,he does have a right to post on here
> without being impersonated.If someone disagrees with Steve
> Sailor then by all means they should debate him.But they
> should debate him , not a caricture or strawman of him
I do agree with that.
> Dilan Esper
> So you think that because someone holds extreme
> opinion X, it is perfectly permissible to attribute
> to him extreme opinions Y and Z that he does not hold?
That’s kind of the point though. Apparently there is some deep, subtle, meaningful difference between the extreme, odious, racist ideas that the real Steve Sailer holds and the slightly exaggerated and extended versions that that parodists have been posting. As I noted earlier, however, I am usually unable to tell what those differences are. I am sure they are important to Steve Sailer’s conception of himself, but if informed observers can’t tell the difference between his merely odious positions and vile versions of the same positions that strikes me as a bit of a problem for him.
And again, I’ll refer to #15: what exactly does Sailer think should happen in our society? A return to paternalistic white anglo-saxon plantation owners managing the inferior underclasses “for their own good”? A return to separate but equal? A _Brave New World_-style classification by IQ measurements? What exactly?
Cranky
November 10th, 2009 at 11:20 am
a large fraction of black men dropped out of the workforce and/or went to prison
What’s paradoxical about that? Locking black men up is a very effective way of getting them out of the workforce, not just during their sentence, but also by giving them a record that interferes with employment afterwards. Reagan ran on a “lock up the darkies” platform (not in those words, of course, he called it “law and order” — see Atwater on dogwhistling) so it’s not at all surprising that he would have put it into practice. IIRC the infamous crack sentencing disparity dates from the Reagan years, for example, and the whole War on Some Drugs was pushed into high gear especially in minority neighborhoods.
The psychology of young black men didn’t radically change in the 1980s, but government policies that affected them did. The results are only “paradoxical” if you look for causes of the following events *only* among the former.
I agree that they’re tragic, though.
November 11th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
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