The Bright Future in Houston
We’re only six games into the season, but I think you’d have to judge the Houston Rockets’ 4-2 opening a victory for the stats-oriented approach to basketball. Not only is Houston’s GM a stats guy, but with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady both injured we’re actually getting to put a somewhat outlandish hypothetical to the test. Guys like Dave Berri are always saying that guys who rebound well and score efficiently are valuable players even if relatively low shot volume keeps their total points modest. Critics tend to retort that low-volume, high-efficiency opportunities are being opened up by more prolific scorers and that if you had a whole team without a star shot-creator they’d suddenly be ineffective. Instead, put in a position where it makes sense for him to shoot a lot, Trevor Ariza is scoring twenty points per game, and guys like Carl Landry and Luis Scola are still getting their double digits.
The 2009-2010 Rockets aren’t going to be a great team, but I think there’s a good chance they’ll be a perfectly good team. And their good players are all pretty young. And they’ve got a chance to deal Tracy McGrady’s expiring deal if someone decides they need a midseason salary dump. And even if that doesn’t happen, then his contract will come off the books and soon Yao will be at the end of his deal. All in all it’s a reasonably bright future, especially when you consider that their GM has put up a very solid track record of good moves with modest resources over the past three years.
38 Responses to “The Bright Future in Houston”
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November 10th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
Almost every single player in the NBA was a scoring machine in high school, so it’s not that difficult for them to revert back to taking shots. They’ll make a lower percentage than the superstars, but they’ll typically do okay.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Your reference to Berri in this post is nearly a non-sequitor. Houston does a lot of stat analysis to find players that they like, but I doubt it’s as shoddy as Berri’s.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Do the Rockets also provide a testbed for the “Superstars get the fouls” theory as well?
November 10th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
“Your reference to Berri in this post is nearly a non-sequitor. Houston does a lot of stat analysis to find players that they like, but I doubt it’s as shoddy as Berri’s.”
Yup.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
“The 2009-2010 Rockets aren’t going to be a great team, but I think there’s a good chance they’ll be a perfectly good team. And their good players are all pretty young. And they’ve got a chance to deal Tracy McGrady’s expiring deal if someone decides they need a midseason salary dump. And even if that doesn’t happen, then his contract will come off the books and soon Yao will be at the end of his deal. All in all it’s a reasonably bright future.”
The word you’re making do a lot of work there is “reasonably”.
In reality, Houston’s future is tightly tied to Yao’s recovery prognosis.
Without a genuine horse to ride, there is only so far you can go by simply assembling a solid team. There’s an enormous chasm between winning 50 games and winning titles.
Houston has superb general management and coaching, but I’d take Oklahoma City’s future over theirs.
—–
The Phoenix story is starting to look pretty compelling. They’re doing what they’re doing with rubber bands and balsa wood, but they’re doing it. It’s Jared Dudley’s world, and we just live in it.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
And what’s the deal with KG?
I’ve only seen one Boston game so far, but in the one I saw, KG looked simply awful. And I don’t mean he had a bad game – he was knocking down his outside jumper – I mean it looked like he couldn’t run or jump.
The Roscoe pickup means that KG can take his time getting himself back to full speed, but if he doesn’t have his legs back by February, it’s going to be a waste of a very elite squad.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
I thought this post was going to link to the new “Future Power Rankings” that Chard Ford and Hollinger put up today, which assessed each team’s projected on court success over the years 2010, 2011 and 2012, based on the players they have today, their management/ownership, the amount of money they have to spend under the cap (and in general), the market they play in, and future draft picks/position. Kind of an interesting project. Top 5 were Portland, Orlando, Lakers, Oklahoma City, and Miami.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Here’s the link to Berri’s actual analysis of the Rockets. His bottom line: Houston’s main core of Scola, Battier, Ariza, Brooks, Landry, Hayes and Lowrey were all (other than Brooks) above average players in the past. “This suggests that these players will be above average in 2009-10. If that happens, the Rockets have a good chance of being an above average team. And this team – again, contrary to popular perception — might avoid the lottery in 2010.”
Seems to me that the results so far bear out Berri’s (and Matthew’s) analysis.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
I’ve only seen one Boston game so far, but in the one I saw, KG looked simply awful.
KG was horrid in the Nets game on Saturday. But then again, I think the entire Celtics team sleepwalked through that game, as they were playing an NCAA team.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
“Kind of an interesting project. Top 5 were Portland, Orlando, Lakers, Oklahoma City, and Miami.”
Highly reasonable choices.
What’s the next five?
(I won’t pay Disney to get behind their firewall since I hate their TV coverage of the association so very much, and since the internets should be free, and I’m already paying so much for League Pass, and since Hoopshype exists. But that Chard Ford has interesting things to say at times.)
November 10th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
“KG was horrid in the Nets game on Saturday. But then again, I think the entire Celtics team sleepwalked through that game, as they were playing an NCAA team.”
That’s the game I saw. Helluva game.
It’s too bad you can’t get odds on the Nets team plane crashing. I’d take the action. Both pilots will have heart attacks, Courtney Lee will rush into the cockpit ready to save the day, but he’ll trip and fall into the controls…
—-
His clock is ticking, but I still think Paul Pierce is the most compelling player to watch in the association.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
“Seems to me that the results so far bear out Berri’s … analysis.”
Berri also thinks a team of Reggie Evans cloned 15 times over would win a title…
November 10th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Highly reasonable choices. What’s the next five?
Utah, Chicago, San Antonio, Cleveland, and Denver.
Bottom 5: Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento, Milwaukee, Charlotte.
November 10th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
The real question about any team like this is, who takes the big shot?
November 10th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Utah’s the interesting choice, at #6. I don’t normally think of them as having an especially bright future, but they kept Milsap over the summer so have a replacement for Boozer already set up, they have Deron Williams, and they have the Knicks #1 pick in the 2010 draft (which will have a lot of ping pong balls going for it).
November 10th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
“KG was horrid in the Nets game on Saturday.”
That was Boston’s 8th game in 12 days, which was more games than anyone else in the league played to start the season.
Mike
November 10th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
“Utah’s the interesting choice, at #6. I don’t normally think of them as having an especially bright future, but they kept Milsap over the summer so have a replacement for Boozer already set up, they have Deron Williams, and they have the Knicks #1 pick in the 2010 draft (which will have a lot of ping pong balls going for it).”
I’d put scare quotes around the “interesting” there.
The rationales don’t quite add up for me, barring a bombshell result out of the Knicks’ pick. Milsap is a nice chip, but he’s not the kind of running mate Deron needs. And the franchise doesn’t seem the kind that’s willing to pay tax on a regular basis. Not to mention that it seems to be the least desirable destination in the league for free agents…
November 10th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
“That was Boston’s 8th game in 12 days, which was more games than anyone else in the league played to start the season.”
Has Garnett been able to run or jump in the other seven games?
He didn’t seem tired. He seemed like a cripple.
November 10th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
The real question about any team like this is, who takes the big shot?
Brooks took the big shot at Oregon. World of difference, yes, but he knows what it means to be the go-to guy with the game on the line.
November 10th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
The rationales don’t quite add up for me, barring a bombshell result out of the Knicks’ pick. Milsap is a nice chip, but he’s not the kind of running mate Deron needs. And the franchise doesn’t seem the kind that’s willing to pay tax on a regular basis. Not to mention that it seems to be the least desirable destination in the league for free agents…
I think you’re underselling that lottery pick. The Knicks are pretty terrible; Utah can probably start picking up lottery-talent big men to bring in for workouts now (although the thought of John Wall in Utah, is strangely compelling). The bigger albatross is Kirilenko’s big contract, which ties their hands.
November 10th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
“The bigger albatross is Kirilenko’s big contract, which ties their hands.”
Yup. The only way around that is to pay tax, which I’ve gotta think was a one-year thing for Utah this year.
As stated above, there is an enormous chasm between winning 50 games and winning titles, and I have trouble seeing how Orlando jumps that chasm, barring turning the Knicks’ pick into something truly huge.
Portland also seems a bit of fool’s gold at the #1 spot, unless you think Oden is going to be more than Oden is likely going to be…
November 10th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
The Detroit Pistons just had a semi-dynasty type run (6 straight conference finals) without really having a superstar on their roster.
I mean, was Chauncey Billups a superstar? I don’t think so. He was excellent player at his peak, but he was never a top 10 guy. Rip Hamilton, Teyshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace were all very good players, love em all, but were any of them top 20 guys? Again, I don’t think so. I think all three could have been found somewhere between 25 and 45. And Ben Wallace may have been a sort of Dennis Rodman type at the center position, but I think his value at the time was highly inflated because he played on such a solid defensive team. As soon as he was traded, his game was totally exposed.
My point is, you can get repeated shots at an NBA title, and maybe win one or two, without having a superstar on your roster. If you can put together a solid starting unit comprised of five good to excellent dedicated two way team guys; you are going to present a tough out. To anyone.
In other words, do what GM Joe Dumars did, put together a team in your own image. Put 5 Joe Dumars types out there, and you got a chance to win it all.
November 10th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Petey, he hasn’t looked great, but he’s looked ok. He’s running well, but he’s definitely not changing directions or getting airborne like before the injury. That said, he looks to be easing into the game. We’ll see whether he’s got any gas left in the tank between now and ~February.
That said, they’re in far better shape than last year if he does happen to go down (thanks to adding ‘Sheed and Shelden Williams). If he gets back into 2007-8 form, they will roll to a title, if not, they could still get to the finals (and anything can happen there)…
November 10th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
“The Detroit Pistons just had a semi-dynasty type run (6 straight conference finals) without really having a superstar on their roster … My point is, you can get repeated shots at an NBA title, and maybe win one or two, without having a superstar on your roster.”
Black swan…
November 10th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
The problem with assigning Houston’s recent success with good statistical analysis is that Houston’s success is due to efficient players who are also have good character. I don’t know what the statistics signs of good character are.
November 10th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
These are my favorite threads. I don’t give a shit what Matt says, so long as its interesting enough to bring the usual suspects to the table. Me, I just want the Raptors (where I’m from) and/or the Hornets (where I live) to make the playoffs. I like my odds for one of them over neither or both.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
“My point is, you can get repeated shots at an NBA title, and maybe win one or two, without having a superstar on your roster.”
Petey’s going too far by calling this a “black swan”, but it’s still a rare scenario. The NBA is generally dominated by one or several teams that have a superstar or two. Solid teams with very good role players often make it to the conference finals, but they rarely win it all… because they’ll eventually run into a team with a superstar.
The Sixers, Celtics, and Lakers dominated the 80s. Then the Pistons won two with Isiah, who was at least arguably a superstar. Then the Bulls won three. Then the Rockets won two with Hakeem. Then the Bulls won three more. Then the Spurs took one with the Admiral and Tim Duncan. Then the Lakers took 3 with Shaq and Kobe. Then the Spurs won one more. Then the Pistons took their one title with a team full of role players. Followed by more Duncan, D-Wade, the Celtics’ big three, and the Lakers.
Sure, the Pistons made six straight conference finals during an era when nearly all the superstars were in the other conference. They had a great run, but it’s not exactly what I’d call a trend.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:27 am
@24 Petey: “Black swan…”
A continuous six year Black Swan Event. I like it.
Hey, I’m not saying it happens all the time. The only other team in my memory that won an NBA championship without a true superstar was 1979 Seattle Supersonics. Seattle had a great -but superstarless- backcourt tandem, Dennis Johnson and Gus Johnson, just like the Pistons had with Rip and Chauncey, but the rest of the starters taken as a whole were actually quite average, Jack Sikma (C), John Johnson (F) and the immortal Lonnie Shelton (F).
@27 LaFollette Progressive: “Then the Pistons won two with Isiah, who was at least arguably a superstar.”
Isiah was one of the greatest guards ever to play the game. But in the glory period, 1987-90, when the Pistons were two Black Swans away from winning four straight, Isaih subjugated his game to such an extant that it was always hard to say which Piston’s guard was more valuable to the team, Joe Dumars or Isiah.
Obviously, the team was loaded with primo talent. Isiah, Dumars, Bill Lambeer, Vinnie Johnson, Dennis Rodman, and Mark Aguirre all fit in there somewhere between 15 and 30, I would say. So the late 80’s Piston’s certainly don’t fit profile of a team of grinders winning it all without the aid of a true superstar, that’s for sure.
Wouldn’t it be cool, though, if the Rockets gelled come playoff time and beat the pants off of everybody -and won the championship with a bunch of nobodies?
November 11th, 2009 at 8:48 am
A continuous six year Black Swan Event.
No, it was a one-time black swan event. Getting to the conference finals (in a conference as bad as the East in the early to mid ’00s) is not the same thing as winning the championship.
November 11th, 2009 at 8:56 am
Houston plays Chuck Hayes, the best under 6′9″ center since Dave Cowens, Jerry Lucas, and Wes Unseld.
November 11th, 2009 at 8:56 am
Also, on Utah, next year, Kirilenko’s contract becomes an expiring deal (it ends after the 2010-11 season). So it becomes easier for Utah to deal after this season is out. I wonder if, for example, Mikhail Prokhorov buys the Nets, the Nets might trade for him this summer — especially if they are not able to lure a big name max deal free agent this summer. Kirilenko played for Prokhorov’s CSKA Moscow team 10 years ago and the two are friends.
(Clearly, Utah doesn’t want to become a regular tax payer. They did this year because they wanted to keep Milsap – which I think is fine, since Boozer is gone next year.)
November 11th, 2009 at 9:00 am
This post makes me think Houston is maybe the destination for LeBron in 2010. Houston could sign him with McGrady’s money. LeBron has been targeting the Chinese market in his quest to be the world’s first billionaire athlete and Houston is already well known in the Chinese market. And the team would be pretty damn good if you added LeBron to the likes of Chuck Hayes and Kyle Lowery. OK, maybe not.
November 11th, 2009 at 9:44 am
“if, for example, Mikhail Prokhorov buys the Nets”
I can tell you how that will play out.
The deal will get finalized with just days remaining in 2009. They’ll have a press conference with David Stern and Prokhorov to announce it. Courtney Lee will rush up to the podium to shake Prokhorov’s hand to congratulate him, mistime his steps, and crash into Prokhorov, breaking Prokhorov’s neck and killing him, and thus voiding the deal.
—–
“the Nets might trade for Kirilenko this summer — especially if they are not able to lure a big name max deal free agent this summer. Kirilenko played for Prokhorov’s CSKA Moscow team 10 years ago and the two are friends.”
While your speculation seems reasonable on the surface, given the new rule saying that all European NBA players must play for Toronto, doesn’t that mean Kirilenko will end up a Raptor?
Joking aside, if multiple max free agents move this summer, and if the ownership deal goes through, it’s hard to imagine the Nets not being able to snag one of the max free agents. The combination of the New York destination, mega-cap space, and a free spending owner should produce results.
November 11th, 2009 at 10:41 am
Thanks for jinxing us, Matt.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:12 am
I think the free-agent scene next summer is not difficult to predict.
Wade stays in Miami, Bosh to Miami, LeBron to New Jersey, Boozer to Chicago, Stoudemire to Oklahoma, McGrady to LA Clippers, Joe Johnson stays in Atlanta, Ginobili stays in SA.
Knicks come up empty.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:34 am
They were also two “black swan” events from winning 0 titles. The Lakers lost Byron Scott and Magic in 1989 and were one game away from losing to a Bulls team that would one year later begin to dominate the NBA.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:47 am
max424, that was gus williams, not gus johnson (gus johnson was one of the first great leaping forwards in the ’60s, following in the footsteps of elgin and foreshadowing julius).
and petey, speaking as an old-timer, let me take you down new york knick memory lane and willis reed’s knee problems. fundamentally, after the first knick title, reed’s knee was never the same again (the knicks picked up the aging jerry lucas to help make up for it); the only time after the 1969-70 season that willis looked like willis was the 1973 finals, for which i can’t quickly find the boxscores (but he was the MVP of the finals).
now, i haven’t seen garnett at all, but really, the celts only need garnett to be garnett come the post-season….
November 11th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
@37 Howard: “max424, that was gus williams”
Thanks Howard.
@36 Mo “They were also two “black swan” events from winning 0 titles.”
True enough. That’s the beauty of sports, and world economics, come think of it -everything can and often does, hang by a thread.