New Lows in Key Demographic Subsets
Heather Boushey dives deeper than the headlines in the latest unemployment report and finds little but bad news:
The dismal labor market for workers is evident in nearly every series the BLS has from its household survey, which measures labor market weakness. Nearly a million workers have left the labor force over the past year; two-thirds of those unemployed are out of work because they lost their prior job, dwarfing new and returning labor market entrants; 9.3 million workers are employed part-time even though they would prefer a full-time jobs; and the share of the population with a job has fallen to 58.5 percent, lower than at any point since 1983; adult men’s employment rates fell to 66.7 percent, hitting another all-time low (going back to 1948); and teens are seeing their worst labor market ever—unemployment among 16- to 19-year-olds is a record 27.6 percent.
The high unemployment among teens is going to retard their acquisition of basic labor market skills and they’ll suffer lifelong consequences as a result. You sometimes hear it said that we can’t afford to burden the future with additional debt and “printing money.” The reality is that we can’t afford not to. Surveying the political situation, there’s probably more room for action on the Fed side of things than the Congress/White House side, but either way we need more expansionary policies.
27 Responses to “New Lows in Key Demographic Subsets”
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November 6th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
The unemployment rates for adult men are not really that drastic if you exclude illegal immigrants. Vigorous enforcement of immigration law would also dramatically increase the demand for native born labor.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Most 16-19 year olds shouldn’t be working–maybe some 18-19 year olds, but the rest are as a definitional matter high schools dropouts.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
What is the Fed supposed to do here?
November 6th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Politically the Fed may have more freedom of action, but the really effective stuff is all going to be on the fiscal side these days. Which kinda sucks, but I am still hoping we will be getting a steady series of stealth-stimulus measures.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
What is the Fed supposed to do here?
Hire some kids to run the money window.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Surveying the political situation, there’s probably more room for action on the Fed side of things than the Congress/White House side, but either way we need more expansionary policies.
There is zero room for action by the Fed. Krugman has devoted several columns to why that is. Get it straight, MattY.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
The high unemployment among teens is going to retard their acquisition of basic labor market skills and they’ll suffer lifelong consequences as a result. You sometimes hear it said that we can’t afford to burden the future with additional debt and “printing money.” The reality is that we can’t afford not to.
That would read so much better if you said:
The high unemployment among teens is going to retard their acquisition of basic labor market skills and they’ll suffer lifelong consequences as a result. You sometimes hear it said that we can’t afford to burden consumers with the high cost of goods produced without cheap immigrant labor. The reality is that we can’t afford not to.
Really, how canyou argue that we need a better labor market for teens to give them labor market skills and simultaneously support an immigration policy that forecloses most of these job opportunities for them?
Or is your real goal just to burden the future with debt and print money in order to support more aliens?
November 6th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Sailer, neither statement is a valid inference from the data, & the alacrity w/ which you make them is unattractive. We have a serious non-immigrant adult male unemployment problem, & even 1930s-style mass deportations wouldn’t ‘drastically’ improve it.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
We have a serious non-immigrant adult male unemployment problem, & even 1930s-style mass deportations wouldn’t ‘drastically’ improve it.
And that problem is concentrated among low-skilled workers. Low-skilled native workers are precisely those facing competition from illegal immigrants. It makes no sense to ignore this factor. Mass deportations would dramatically affect the demand curve for unskilled labor. So-called progressive politicians are hurting blue-collar workers in order to appease the Hispanic lobby.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
If you work construction and your wife is a nurse and you get laid off, you might not be as desperate to get a new job as if you were the sole breadwinner. As more and more women enter the workforce with more and education, their less educated and less employable husbands are going to stay out of the workforce longer, hence higher male unemployment rate.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Regarding comment # 10 by JMO
JMO
I see the point that you are trying to make.But i don’t think there are many men that are going to stat out of the job market on purpose just because their wife is employed.
I think that the reason that the unemployment rate is higher among males is that the two sections of the economy that have been hit the worst are the construction business and the manufacturing sector. the construction trade is overwhelmingly male.And the manufacturing sector is predominantly male.
Going back to MR Yglesias’s point i would agree that the best way for kids to enter the adult job market is with experience gained during the teen years.Schools are great but they can only teach you so much.An 18 year old that had part time or summer jobs as a teen is going to be a step ahead of any of his peers that doesn’t have the same experience.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Glaivester: It’s the Democratic way!
This party has been supporting the social reforms for decades while simultaneously oposing the economic reforms that would grant the broad-based prosperity and income equality required to make social reforms.
When the working class isn’t doing well, they will NOT be interested in advancing the civil rights of any minority groups as they will percieve those gains as comming at their expense. You want gay rights, womens rights, immigration reform and healthcare reform? You’re not goin to get them with the Economic policies of Matt Y or Ezra K. You honestly think the civil rights movement wouldn’t have been stomped out without the economic growth of the 50’s and 60’s?
November 6th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
So-called progressive politicians are hurting blue-collar workers in order to appease the Hispanic lobby.
Ok, this is a refrain heard over an over again. Apparently, I missed the secret Atzlan email to become part of this lobby, but can you explain why the “Hispanic lobby” would want mass illegal immigration to, in your scenario, erode job prospects for low skilled native workers? Certainly some low skilled Hispanic workers are “native” too?
November 6th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
[...] must read this. As I said before, I think this piece hits the nail on the head. See article at . VDare, Richmond, CA, Muslim, Gang [...]
November 6th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
But i don’t think there are many men that are going to stat out of the job market on purpose just because their wife is employed.
You’re in MA you’re getting $650 a week in UI for 99 weeks, your wife is making good money at the Hospital, some couples are going to make the decision to take the kids out of daycare, have dad take care of the kids for a while, and wait until the job market picks up?
November 6th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
Let’s see, everyone here wants to improve teenage employment, thus giving the relatively unskilled work skills. How about reducing the minimum wage laws which directly result in lower employment rates for teenagers. In fact, the minimum wage law hurts all low-skilled workers precisely because they are low-skilled and not productive enough to make it worth employing them by employers, especially small business owners.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
I’m glad I was dead wrong. I thought there a great chance the BLS would find a way to tag the October unemployment rate at 9.9%. It’s sad, but it is good news we cracked double digits.
We need to be in double digits. We need to focus. The U6 number is at 17.5%! We ignore that the number at our peril, but still, 10.2% unemployment will open some eyes.
I just read that 65% of small businesses that make under $150,000 have to use credit cards to make ALL their purchases. It’s insane. The backbone of our country has gotta pay 20-30% interest to fucking loan sharks to keep their doors open while Wall Street is getting interest free loans from the Fed to gamble to their hearts content.
I don’t know, I look around the country and all that I see is hodgepodge activity. States and localities throwing the kitchen sink at problems. Desperate crap. Stopgap measures. There is no coordination at all. NO PLAN OF ANY KIND.
We must have our own bank. I don’t understand why we don’t have our own seperate banking system. A simple, nationwide Savings&Loan, that is not in it for the profit. Does a Democracy fail because a Democracy has its own non-profit bank beholden to the people? I never got that one. We can’t have a bank because 180 years ago Old Hickory said that a National Bank would concentrate wealth and power in just a few hands. WHAT?
November 6th, 2009 at 5:53 pm
Re: How about reducing the minimum wage laws
In most of the country the market wage is higher than the minimum wage, so I fail to see how reducing the minimum wage would put anyone to work. The problem right now is not that wages too high (they emphatically are not) but rather than demand is too low.
November 6th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
How did a post regarding low skill positions that are attractive to teens and low teen unemployment, get turned around to blame the “Hispanic lobby” and Hispanic illegal immigrants? First of all illegal immigration is not just about all those brown people crossing the border. There are other people from other regions of the world that are here illegally, shocking I know.
First of all, the jobs that teens normally do, are not the same jobs that illegal immigrants normally do. Are people suggesting that lettuce picker was such a great option for american teens? The same thing for most janitorial positions, sweatshop workers, most nanny positions and day laborers, all jobs of course, that are normally so attractive to the American teen.
i know many of y’all are suspicious of the teh browns but we are not the cause of your problems. Speaking as one of them, I can assure you I’ve got my papers, third-generation born and raised American, and even have a masters degree! And there are millions just like me. Amazing isn’t it?!
November 6th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
A simple, nationwide Savings&Loan, that is not in it for the profit.
They are called Credit Unions asshat.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
#13:
Apparently, I missed the secret Atzlan email to become part of this lobby, but can you explain why the “Hispanic lobby” would want mass illegal immigration to, in your scenario, erode job prospects for low skilled native workers?
They don’t. But the policies they do want – more Hispanic immigration in order to increase their political clout – have this effect. Sailer (#9) is saying that the progressive politicians are taking positions that have the effect of hurting blue-collar workers because these positions happen to coincide with those that appease the Hispanic lobby and they care more about the ethnic lobbies than about native blue-collar workers.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
“..the Hispanic lobby and they care more about the ethnic lobbies than about native blue-collar workers”
I know it’s hard for you to believe, but the majority of Hispanic blue-collar workers ARE native.
What Hispanic lobby? The tiny amount of Hispanic reps. in the House? The infinitesimal amount of Hispanic lobbyists for which industries exactly? The majority of Hispanics in this country don’t have the economic, social, cultural or educational clout to make anyone take our concerns seriously beyond tokenism. And by the way, most of use have the same concerns just like any other American, such as jobs, education, the wars, etc. Please. Give me a damn break.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Actually, the two “Steve Sailer” comments above are not by me.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
If those two comments were by me, I certainly would have added the business cheap labor lobby (Tamar Jacoby, chief PR agent) to the Hispanic lobby as guilty of conspiring to deprive American teenagers of “acquisition of basic labor market skills and they’ll suffer lifelong consequences as a result.”
The interesting question about Matt is whether he intentionally serves up so many of these hanging curveball posts in order to forward the immigration restriction cause that he secretly backs but can’t come out of the closet about because it would damage his career … or is he just as clueless as everybody else on JournoList?
November 6th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Has anybody thought deeply about the consequences of another illegal immigrant amnesty. Let’s forget for the moment that suddenly 20 to 30 million people are going to be legalized? That Sanctuary states like California, New Mexico have been financially ridden hard into the ground, because illegal workers and their families are feeding at a gold mine of taxpayer money in government benefits. Let’s not mention that since the 1986 Simpson/Mazzoli bill, those made legal, was able to bring into the United States their extended family members. That although they signed an affidavit to support them, many ended up at the the taxpayers expense. So let’s slide to the side the expenditures to educate, offer free health care treatment and all the rest of hidden costs of subsiding a large portion of the US population. The fact that the businesses that draw them here, from every corner of the world–PAYS NOTHING. IT”S A FREE-BEES FOR PARIAH BUSINESS. BETTER KNOWN AS CORPORATE WELFARE.
So president Obama bypasses the masses, who have entreated–NO BLANKET AMNESTY. No path to citizenship! So the millions already here get a free ride to your pensions, social security public option health care welfare. NOW HERE COMES THE FIRESTORM. Have we taken leave of our senses, to think for one moment the fact that another amnesty which is in the works, that the single layer fence is going to hold back millions and millions of more people? That this will not be small lines of illegal aliens crossing the border during the hours of darkness? This is going to be an unimaginably rush that 9000 border patrol agents, is –Expected?– to hold at bay? Not even the National Guard and regular GI’s could stop the wave upon wave? They will sweep in from El Salvador, Columbia, Guatemala, Peru, Chile and of course Mexico. They will arrive from Canada, Ireland, Poland, Romania by plane.
Every corner of the world will hear the trumpet call of Obama’s AMNESTY. Chinese immigrants with tourist visas, will fly into Mexico City. Not just the poor, but the sick, mentally handicapped along with criminals absconding from the arm of the law across this planet. NOW THE MOST URGENT QUESTION IS? WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR ALL THIS? We are already swallowing the massive funding for Iraq and Afghanistan. We cannot even find jobs for hapless 15 million American workers, who (if true) are joining day laborers at Home Depot, Walmart, Lowes parking lots. So who is going to house, feed and pay-out even more strained US taxpayer money? Perhaps we should send families of illegal aliens to squat in Sen. Harry Reid’s house in Nevada. Send another crowd to live in House Speakers grape plantations in Central California.
Let’s give them free bus fare to each and every politician with a lousy immigration grading, such as Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-IL). Why not have them live-in at every ACLU office and their so called communist lawyers could feed them. Every pro-illegal immigrant Chamber of Commerce member could open a spare room and settle some family. All the anti-sovereignty lawmakers should have plenty of room in their Virgina mansions, for a number of impoverished families. Even the President has that large White structure could exhibit some kindness to homeless families? Any of the House and Senate who compromised illegal immigration enforcement, should announce their address for resettlement of people who just run the gauntlet at the underfunded border fence. Let’s face it these people who call us names such as xenophobes bigots and worse, ugly cuss words should open their doors to anybody who enters America illegally. Microsoft multi-billionaire Gates and the thousands of businesses that don’t incur a darn cent should bring these family members together in their giant homes. Perhaps American workers should obtain a hard copy list of every unpatriotic American and give illegal immigrant matroic a page of addresses for their extended illegal families?
Then just picture the traffic chaos in every corner of America, unless you live in an isolated ranch in the Mohave desert, in California. We think we have road rage now, but give it a few weeks after unfettered AMNESTY. I even have a better idea. Open Americas doors completely? No Ellis Island, Galveston Island. No documents, no inspections. NO NOTHING. Give everybody a bus ticket of their choosing, to where they wish to go? See how long the open border zealots put up with that progressive rush to overpopulation.
Read about E-Verify being extended 3 years, instead of being tabled by anti-sovereignty Senator Harry Reid. That the Salvation army has disassociated itself from congregational religions and faith groups and does not endorse the National Association of Evangelicals’ recent lobbying for amnesty and for an increase in foreign labor importation. That Zogby International poll reveals that 56 percent of Mexicans believe that someone they know would try entering the United States illegally if the country was to offer legal status to illegal aliens. This just a few of the nasty arrangements our so-called politicians have in store for us.
Another non-profit group is JUDICIAL WATCH with their main attention focused on political corruption in all levels of government. Judicial Watch is a watchdog over our government, legal, and judicial systems. The site posts a summary of the court cases they are pursuing along with related news stories. Currently on their site is the ACORN controversy.
In conclusion, be very aware of a blanket amnesty if enacted. Not only will millions more get past the border fence, but the costs cannot even be calculated with family reunification – known as “chain migration”. A massive Armada of the old, young, mentally sick could be sponsored. The legalized sponsor, in the majority of actions, never fulfills his financial commitment to his charges and they end up as a taxpayer expense.
The CAPSWEB site is all about our rush towards overpopulation. The US Census Bureau has not denied that America’s population could climb to projections of a 50-percent increase in the domestic population by the year 2050. Escalating from 255 million to 383 million. The next 100 million will suffocate our ability to maintain water, energy, food, communication, infrastructure and a balanced environment. It will put out of reach any chance for a stable and sustainable population within the USA. It will also create horrific water shortages and exacerbate the energy and climate destabilization crises.
WE MUST JAM THE SWITCHBOARDS IN WASHINGTON, PUSHING OUR OWN DEMANDS at 202-224-3121 that bars illegal aliens from the health care insurance “exchange” YOUR VOICE IS MAKING AN IMMENSE DIFFERENCE TO HOW THE POLITICIANS VOTE? WARN THEM OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF IGNORING PUBLIC OPINION.
Other pieces of information contributing to the dilemma of US legal population: Senate Census allows to Count Illegal Aliens for Congressional Districting . CBO Says New Health Care Bill Would Cover 2.5 Million More Illegal Aliens. Sen. Reid Kills E-Verify Amendment to Unemployment extension Bill. Pro-Enforcement Candidates win in Virginia and New Jersey. 68% of Americans Oppose Sanctuary Cities
You can learn about the corruption and incompetence of lawmakers at NUMBERSUSA. Court cases, political sleaze and immigration non-enforcement at JUDICIAL WATCH. How population growth will effect future generations at CAPSWEB. NO BLANKET AMNESTY!
November 7th, 2009 at 4:30 am
As a liberally minded person who has supported Obama, and who hasn’t had any axe to grind in regards to the illegal immigration issue, I think it is absolutely ignorant to assume that, at this point, illegal immigration is not taking an inordinate economic toll on border states, and this country.
Everything from education standards to drains on public support are being affected by illegal immigration. I have had my head buried in the sand as well, but as I look over the wreckage, it’s difficult for me to turn a blind eye to the effects that rampant illegal immigration has had on this country.
We have an incompetent government in Mexico that offers such little value to its public that America will always seem like the better option.
This administration is swirling the drain rather quickly. The Democrats are simply cowards. They are what the Right has portrayed them to be, and I find that both embarrassing, and unfortunate.
If Liberals, and Democrats continue to believe that they can couch these issues in their favor, then they are once again appearing willfully ignorant, and incompetent, and are essentially begging for dismissal. When you have moderates, and Independents walking away from the administration because they either have no clear backbone, or continue to ignore real problems, then, well you have a serious problem that might be already too late to fix.
I think the public is starting to tire of the philanthropic veneer within the Democratic party, and they simply want to have a future to look forward to at this point. Recovery doesn’t look like it will be coming any time soon.
If Obama does not pass meaningful health care legislation soon, and makes good on his list of other promises, then the Democrats will be done for a long, long time. I warned my Liberal cohorts that they are vastly overestimating the Conservative sects health during this crisis, and all that it takes is a weak economy, and a weak-kneed president, and all of the Liberal wishes go down the drain.
The legacy of Jimmy Carter will once again rear its ugly head.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Teens have been losing jobs since before the financial crisis began, and it looks like minimum wage increases are driving the decline.
I agree with Matt; unemployed teenagers will be bad for long-term productivity. Has anybody tried to study how big the effect might be ? (look at lifelong earnings for people who did/didn’t have a job as a teenager, controlling for all the usual factors)