Maine Republicans Want Conservative Challenger to Snowe
It seems Olympia Snowe might be more comfortable in a different political party:
This Public Policy Polling survey of Maine isn’t all that surprising: She has a 46/40 disapproval/approval rating from state Republicans. By a whopping 27 points, those same Republicans say they’d back a “conservative challenger” to Snowe in the 2012 GOP primary. Voters who picked the McCain-Palin ticket in 2008 and self-identified conservatives all oppose Snowe and want a challenger; basically everyone else in the state has a more positive view of Snowe, the poll found.
I don’t know whether these results are “surprising” or not, but I think they ought to change our understanding of the prospects of bipartisanship in health reform. This means that when you’re thinking about whether Snowe will support a bill or not, the issue ultimately comes down to not triggers versus non-triggers, or employer mandates versus free rider fees, but whether Snowe wants to remain a Republican or not. Based on this polling, a Snowe who votes for a comprehensive health care overhaul is basically not going to be viable as a GOP primary candidate. Conversely, a Snowe who votes for comprehensive health reform and switches parties would remain a very popular general election candidate with a safe seat.
Incidentally, this poll inspired me to look up who’s important in Maine GOP politics aside from Snow and Susan Collins. Turns out the top Republican in the State Senate is Kevin Raye, who’s also proprietor of Raye’s Mustard Mill, which is one of Maine’s finest food products. I don’t know much about the guy’s politics, but he makes great mustard!
30 Responses to “Maine Republicans Want Conservative Challenger to Snowe”
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November 10th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
I seem to remember reading recently that the L.L. Bean heirs are also pretty conservative. Maybe one of them will run.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Re: which is one of Maine’s finest food products.
Uhmm, blueberries?
I hear the lobsters are really good too, though my budget won’t allow me to confirm that. According to my friend who’s from a Maine fishing town, apparently the Japanese really like Maine sea urchins (which people are catching now that a lot of the other stocks have been fished out.)
November 10th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
NYC_Charles: Linda L. Bean ran for Congress as a wingnut in 1992. Admittedly the bar for wingnuttery was a lot lower then than it is in these “Orrin Hatch is a RINO” days (and admittedly, the term hadn’t been invented yet).
There was a fair amount of controversy over whether she was politicizing the beloved L.L. Bean brand.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Weird… Raye’s Mustard Mill just came up in conversation this weekend, and I had never heard of it previously. I guess they must make some damn fine mustard.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
maybe it’s just me, but I automatically question the bias of any organization that includes the label “Democrat” party in its materials.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
The far right have been unhappy with Senator Snowe and have been threatening to unseat her for years .Polls are pretty unreliable for an election that’s 3 years away.My personal opinion is that she is fairly safe.
I also think that she is more of a true conservative than most of the so called conservatives that have been criticsising her.I think that if she or Susan Collins were to run for president in a crowded republican primary in 2012 , they both would have a chance of winning [but not if both ran ].The far right didn’t like Mccain , but he still won the primary because the far right’s votes were spread out among the other canidates.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Since Maine Republicans are out of their mind is there some way I can help them find a challenger to Snowe? Seriously if she gets defeated in a primary Maine will have a reliable progressive senator. I can’t understand why Republicans in Maine would want this outcome.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
this is horribly disappointing. i love raye’s stone ground mustard, which if memory serves correct, is the last stone ground mustard in the US to actually be ground by stone. they also have another mustard made with a porter beer from one of the bar harbor breweries (i forget which one), which is also excellent.
November 10th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Since she’s not up for re-election until the 2012 cycle, I hardly think what Maine extreme-right republicans want now bears much weight.
I drove from my home in the western Mountains to Portland last Friday; church’s with big signs along the way, “Change is in the Air,” and “We’ve been blessed.” The extreme right is feeling all woozy from the heady fumes of protecting marriage. They’ll cool down to a small, squeaky minority soon.
Maine has a lot to gain from having two moderate Republican senators because Maine, right now, is a economically depressed. Folks know they need that help. And those senators are bringing wind power, one’s bringing health-care reform of some sort. I might not like my two senator’s politics, but they and the clout they wield suit most Mainiacs just fine right about now.
November 10th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
This is what you get when you drive all the non-crazy people out of the GOP (see also Pennsylvania).
By the way, on this:
The thing is, it isn’t clear that even if Snowe votes against health care reform that she will remain viable in the primaries. Which makes Door #2 look all the more attractive (see also Pennsylvania).
November 10th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
I think that if she or Susan Collins were to run for president in a crowded republican primary in 2012 , they both would have a chance of winning [but not if both ran ].
They’d have a chance—it would be about a snowball’s chance in Hell, but it would be a chance.
Sure, the far right didn’t like McCain, but the Republicans will *never* tolerate a pro-choice nominee for Pres. or VP. Just ask President Specter (’96) or Vice President Ridge (2000, 2008).
November 10th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Exactly, she’s done either way. It isn’t just healthcare, she is also a big proponent of illegal immigration and is sure to vote for amnesty next year if Obama keeps his promise and pushes for it.
She needs to switch, although she’ll probably wait till after 2010.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Wow. If we’re lucky Republicans can recruit someone in time for her to decide that the the GOP can fuck themselves and she switches to the Dems.
I do wish that they’d thrown Specter a bone when he jumped ship. He’s totally without principle, but it would have made it easier to convince other Northeastern Republicans to join the fold if previous folks who’d done so retained their seniority.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
And certainly the Easternmost Mustard Mill in the United States (as is just about everything in Eastport).
I do like their coarse mustard.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Andy @5 — good instincts, but Public Policy Polling is actually a Democratic pollster. I think they were just trying to save space.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
“According to my friend who’s from a Maine fishing town, apparently the Japanese really like Maine sea urchins (which people are catching now that a lot of the other stocks have been fished out.)”
This is a small part of the plot of the excellent Jonathan Lethem book, Motherless Brooklyn.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
I think that if she or Susan Collins were to run for president in a crowded republican primary in 2012 ,
Collins. Her staff is known to occasionally float the possibility when well-oiled, and I doubt there’s a senator more reliant on her staff than Senator Creamcheese.
A Northerner, in a southern-dominated party; pro-choice and a woman in a party of troglodytes; a ‘moderate’, in a party of extremists — everything you need to bring the GOP back in from the cold when they’re through being all Thermopylae and stuff.
Or so the thinking goes.
I think VP is more likely.
Snowe couldn’t be bothered.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
But she hasn’t really voted for anything yet! Except the stimulus.
They’re mad because she’s acting like it’s possible that she would vote for something, and they want everybody to vote no on everything, including tort reform and troops to Afghanistan. She’s probably done for at this point.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
In addition to being heir to a mustard empire, Kevin Raye is also Olympia Snowe’s former chief of staff, and presumably about the least likely Republican in the state to challenge her.
November 10th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
[...] Snowe in trouble? But please, for the love of gawd, Stay put, [...]
November 10th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
There is even a Facebook group supporting Snowe for the switch.
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=166532444687&v=
November 10th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
The last mass trials were a great success. There are going to be fewer but better Republicans.
November 11th, 2009 at 12:31 am
I hear the lobsters are really good too, though my budget won’t allow me to confirm that.
Maine lobsters are good, but really, rock lobsters from the Pacific are just as good and less expensive; they just don’t have the big meaty claws.
November 11th, 2009 at 5:57 am
I’m not sure it’s worth placing much stock in this poll. Per #9 the Yes on 1 folks are probably feeling their oats right now, and annoyed with Snowe. But it’s cheap talk for another couple years. Come 2011, Maine Republicans may start thinking about a contested primary… but I’d suspect cooler heads will prevail.
November 11th, 2009 at 8:53 am
Raye’s Mustard is REALLY good mustard. Politically he’s probably more conservative then Snowe, but not insanely so. Personally I hope Snowe gets ousted in a primary by a conservative challenger, which would all but guarantee a Democratic pick up. In the early 1970’s Margaret Chase Smith, beloved Maine politician got knocked out by a primary to Cohen (who later became Clintons Secretary of Defense) so beloved icons aren’t as safe in Maine as you would think.
November 11th, 2009 at 8:53 am
Re: which is one of Maine’s finest food products.
Uhmm, blueberries?
I hear the lobsters are really good too, though my budget won’t allow me to confirm that. According to my friend who’s from a Maine fishing town, apparently the Japanese really like Maine sea urchins (which people are catching now that a lot of the other stocks have been fished out.)
I worked on a lobster boat (as first mate) for a summer and I can vouch for the sea urchins – the captain had a diving permit for them and his wife was Japanese so she knew how to prepare them. Maine lobster is delicious, but there are much better ways of preparing it than the traditional steaming and dunking in liquid butter. Raye’s is the best mustard I’ve ever had, but it’d be pretty sad if mustard was the best food that a state had to offer. Maybe Matt doesn’t eat shellfish? You just can’t beat fresh-caught seafood. Other than that, my favorite Maine foods were the fresh-baked blueberry scones I used to get every Sunday morning at our local farmer’s market. Some good microbrews up there, too. But stay away from the ketchup-flavored potato chips, and anything calling itself pizza.
November 11th, 2009 at 8:59 am
i love raye’s stone ground mustard, which if memory serves correct, is the last stone ground mustard in the US to actually be ground by stone.
The mill is available to tours in Eastport, and given the lack of jobs in the area, they are grateful to have the mill still in business. The Northeast has mustard, the Southwest has salsa, and the South and Midwest have, um, mayonnaise.
November 11th, 2009 at 9:01 am
Some good microbrews up there, too.
I could rhapsodize for hours on the joys of Shipyard Old Thumper, or Gritty’s Best Brown. Get it cask strength is you can.
November 11th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Rumor has it Olympia might not run for another term.
Raye’s makes a good mustard, lobsters are good (my dad was a lobsterman), but I like clams better, especially the fried ones.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
[...] a new poll showing a staggering collapse of Maine GOP support for Olympia Snowe, to the extent that Matt Yglesias posited: “Based on this polling, a Snowe who votes for a comprehensive health care overhaul is [...]