Hot New Blanche Lincoln Polling
Yesterday I referenced some fairly dated polling on Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln. Here’s a poll from just last week:
The report suggests Lincoln is vulnerable as she seeks a third term in the Senate next year. The university’s poll, however, said that three-fourths of respondents aren’t following news about Lincoln’s re-election bid. [...] The poll reported that just 43 percent of Arkansans polled approve of the job Lincoln is doing as senator. She enjoyed a 54 percent approval rating last fall.
These are bad, though not-necessarily-cataclysmic numbers for Lincoln. But she really needs to be seen as delivering the goods for her state’s business elite. For example, you might wonder why an alleged deficit hawk from a relative poor state would be fighting hard for a huge tax cut for muli-millionaires. Then you need to recall that thanks to Wal-Mart two of the ten richest people in America live in Arkansas.
14 Responses to “Hot New Blanche Lincoln Polling”
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November 10th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
For example, you might wonder why an alleged deficit hawk from a relative poor state would be fighting hard for a huge tax cut for muli-millionaires
That’s an ugly smear.
She seems to be fighting hard for multi-billionaires.
Then you need to recall that thanks to Wal-Mart two of the ten richest people in America live in Arkansas.
They’re so rich, and Arkansas so poor, that some kind of trickle-down is bound to happen at one point!
November 10th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
So what has changed between now and last fall?
November 10th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Matt, I’m pretty sure a Democrt can not win in Arkansas with a 43% approval rating. It’s not New Jersey or NY, it’s not a heavily Democratic state where voters default to Democrat.
Christopher: The Unemployment rate.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
“she really needs to be seen as delivering the goods for her state’s business elite.”
Coming directly after a post on the institutional details of parliamentary procedure, this is a remarkable post.
What game theory has shown over and over again is that the rules matter less than the manner of play.
You should ask what is it that makes a candidate of the relatively populist Party, in a State with lots of poor people, want to “fight” for the very, very rich? That, not voting schemes is the sickness of American politics.
Blanche Lincoln suffers from the refusal of most of her constituents to pay any attention whatsoever to what she does as Senator, and their same willingness to be influenced by slanderous 30-second spots paid for by the prospective heirs of billionaires.
Senators fear power of campaign contributors, not voters, because voters are easily manipulated by expenditures on propaganda. And, there’s no independent Media, to provide any countervailing source of trusted analysis and commentary, that might make Lincoln’s actual performance in service to the large majority of her constituents matter in the least.
The populist fervor in the country, such as it is, is entirely the creature of the most oppressive elements of the elite. Not much of a revolution in that, I think.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
The funny thing about trickle down ‘theory’ is that wealth is actually remarkably insensitive to gradient drift. It is quite easy to sustain enormous disparities in wealth.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Why do you think Harkin gave Blanche the Agriculture Chair?
Hope he got something in return
November 10th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
soullite, the unemployment rate in Arkansas is 6.7%. That’s up from 4.8% last year, but hardly enough to cause her approval to drop by a full 20%. My guess is that it’s a combination of the economy and a partisan association with Barack Obama, but more to the point is that her friends are dwindling fast.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
And to clarify, her *Democratic* friends are dwindling fast. She’s stuck in 1990s politics and no longer has any political identity.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Matthew forgot to mention that Walmart gives its employees SHIT for medical care — in order to encourage them to apply for Medicaid and dump the costs onto the state. This from a company whose owning family includes several billionaires.
But what is unclear is why Obama doesn’t get Blanche’s vote simply by asking for it from Walmart — with the implicit threat that Walmart can be fucked in various and sundry ways.
Gee — I wonder if Walmart is protected by a couple with the last name of Clinton might be involved?
You know — the defenders of the poor and downtrodden?
November 10th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
PS Matthew doesn’t see the full picture re Walmart wealth.
The family actually has SIX members on Forbes list of the world’s billionaires — the first four rank within the top 20 wealthiest people, as I recall.
Jim Walton
Alice Walton
Christy Walton
S Robson Walton
Ann Walton Kroenke
Nancy Walton Laurie
Ref: http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/10/billionaires-2009-richest-people_The-Worlds-Billionaires_Rank.html
November 10th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
she really needs to be seen as delivering the goods for her state’s business elite
Another Yglesias brand typo? ISTM that being seen as doing exactly this is what is trashing, and will probably continue to trash, her approval rating. Two of the ten richest people in America still only have one vote each, and money only gets you so far when the people are hot enough under the collar.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Walmart is in favor of HCR
Walmart came out in July in a statement with the Matt’s bosses at the CAP in support of HCR
http://walmartstores.com/FactsNews/NewsRoom/9238.aspx
We are pleased that Walmart, Service Employees International Union and Center for American Progress can support three essential elements that should be included in any health care reform legislation–an employer mandate, strong efficiency provisions and a ‘trigger’ mechanism to ensure cost reductions.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
For example, you might wonder why an alleged deficit hawk from a relative poor state would be fighting hard for a huge tax cut for muli-millionaires. Then you need to recall that thanks to Wal-Mart two of the ten richest people in America live in Arkansas.
She’s fighting for those things because it will be the Waltons along with Big Energy, Big Health and Big Food that will be paying for her Golden Parachute when she eventually loses office, not the people of the State of Arkansas.
Have to give it to Blanche: she’s created a win-win situation for herself:
* She wins if she gets re-elected while sticking to the same positions she has in recent years: six more years in the senate.
* She wins if she gets fails to re-elected while sticking to the same positions she has in recent years: the Waltons, Big Health, Big Energy and Big Food will take care of her in her post public service career.
She’s seen how well her fellow congressmen and senators do after leaving. Look at how much Daschele makes, and frankly no one thinks he was an effective Senator or Leader. Blanche has, and will likely through the balance of her term, delivered tangible things to her true “supporters”. Tangible likely to the degree of *trillions* of dollars.
They’ll take care of her, alright. As long as she takes care of them.
While I like the posts we saw around the web the last few days that since Blanche has no chance of winning votes on the right she should go hard to the left to be able to “deliver” something tangible to he voters, I don’t think they’re terribly realitic. They also risk blowing her Golden Parachute.
I think she’ll stop short of killing healthcare because it would take her out of being able to make strong impact on the Global Warming bill coming up: she’ll have played her had as nothing more than an obstructionist rather than someone who you can “deal” with by watering down bills or tossing in certain giveaways for her corporate supporters. So at this point unless there’s a massive ConservaDem uprising that gives her cover to vote against Cloture, she’ll like go along while voting “no” against the final bill and hope she can play it both ways. And then she’ll wisely move on to helping waterdown Waxman-Markey. And all sort of things next year, like fighting against the Bush Tax Cuts lapsing.
John
November 10th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
Arkansas is in fact heavily Democratic. But a strongly retrograde form. Arkansas and Louisiana were the only two states where Obama did better among white males than white females.
Mike Beebe is cruising to re-election and Mark Pryor’s number are suggestive that Blanche is taking an eight point hit for being female.