Matthew Yglesias » The Governator’s Odds

Oct 31st, 2009 at 5:28 pm

The Governator’s Odds

My Wonk Room colleague Brad Johnson runs the numbers and concludes that the odds are less than one in one trillion that you would have accidentally spelled out the “fuck you” message that was left encoded in a recent Arnold Schwarzenegger veto letter.

Comments
24

24 Responses to “The Governator’s Odds”

J Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 5:41 pm
This post just begs the question: why would Schwartzennegger want to spell f*** you in the letter. If it was intentional, then the only advantage this method has above telling them directly is that he can make a denial that nobody will believe. Also, ho doesn’t seem to gain anything from intentionally doing this.
Ed Marshall Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 5:48 pm
I did the same thing when I got suspended from High School, it got noticed instantly.
southpaw Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 6:03 pm
Well,
He’s engaged in some
Occasionally inappropriate behavior for a
Custodian of the public’s trust
And I am filled with
Rage about this
Egregious prank.
Seriously.
Rich in PA Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 6:23 pm
The odds are therefore less than one in a trillion that the Gov was something other than totally awesome in this small instance of his governorship.
Ed Marshall Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 6:25 pm
I couldn’t care less, it’s pretty damn funny actually, but why lie about it?
fostert Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Unlikely events can and do happen. That’s because so many events happen that some will be unlikely. Consider this one: two golf balls colliding in mid air. It happened to a friend of mine. And the guy on the next fairway really didn’t mean to slice his drive on to the wrong fairway, much less hit somebody’s ball mid air while doing it. It was just dumb luck. The funny thing is that nobody could figure out what the ruling is on that issue. They went with the “play it where it is” rule.
Delthayre Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Whether intentional or somehow accidental, I suggest that Governor Schwarzenegger simply be allowed to enjoy this one crowning moment of awesome.
matt w Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 7:02 pm
@4,7: I disagree. It would only have been a crowning moment of awesome if he’d worked in another seven-letter paragraph; something like

As this letter will show, I will not
stand for the abuse of our process for
San Francisco’s parochial interests.
However, if the legislature is able to
override my veto, then according to the
law of the land, I will take all due
enforcement measures.

What the hell is his political career for if not to reuse his best lines?
matt w Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Also, though fostert’s point is well taken, there’s really no other explanation for why he used the word “overwhelmingly” at that point in the letter.
fostert Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 7:23 pm
Matt w: you know the first time I read it, I didn’t notice anything particularly weird about the choice of wording that would indicate intent. But rereading it, yeah, that “overwhelmingly” is pretty weird. Apparently, the governator thinks there is a small minority in California that don’t deserve reform. I wonder who those people might be. Perhaps someone saw “Fuck Y*u” and figured it would be funny to change to “overwhelmingly” to complete the phrase. But even that “Fuck Y*u” string is pretty damn unlikely. Like 1 in 50 billion. You’d be more likely to predict which blade of grass on a fairway you’ll hit first on your drive.
Aqua Regia Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 7:56 pm
It was obviously on purpose, but who cares? It was funny and he has plausible deniability. If only more politicians didn’t take themselves so damn seriously.
Gabe Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Doesn’t that math sort of miss the point? Lots of things are unlikely. If I close my eyes, spin around and throw a ping pong ball its extremely unlikely it will hit any particular spot, but it will hit somewhere. After it does hit somewhere, suppose I did the math and then claimed that it was so unlikely it would hit that spot, that it almost certainly couldn’t have been caused by chance. Thats a logical fallacy.

I’m with everyone else, overwhelmingly is the smoking gun. It doesn’t really make any sense there. Also, the message in general is a bit stilted.
Ed Marshall Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 8:34 pm
I need to gamble with the “unlikely shit happens” folk someday.
rayrick Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Worth noting is that the F and Y were capitalized as well, for extra emphasis. Just one more touch that highlights the fantastic improbability of it being an accident.
PWC Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 10:38 pm
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lakefxdan Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 1:34 am
His memory is faulty. It should have been “Fuck you, asshole.”
DJ Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 2:36 am
If I close my eyes, spin around and throw a ping pong ball its extremely unlikely it will hit any particular spot, but it will hit somewhere. After it does hit somewhere, suppose I did the math and then claimed that it was so unlikely it would hit that spot

Uhh…OK, fine, I’ll firm up the math for you. Its considered unlikely only if THAT spot belongs to a well-defined small subset of the total spots. In Arnold’s case, the set of meaningful phrases formed from 7 letters is much smaller than the total number of random combination of such letter and that’s what makes it so unlikely.
Anthony Damiani Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 3:33 am
We all know he did it, and he’s obliged to pretend he didn’t because it’s something that a statesman ‘must not do’ in an official document.

The math is utterly superfluous.
Anthony Damiani Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 3:40 am
Addendem:
This was really rather petty, when you look into it. He’s punishing the people of San Francisco because he doesn’t like their rep (who, admittedly, behaved less than cordially to him). It’s a shame, because otherwise I’d have found it rather charming.
live Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 3:48 am
“obviously” would have been a better choice than “overwhelmingly”.

In an unrelated development, I’d really like to …
oh, forget it.
DAS Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 4:56 am
We humans are pattern recognizing machines and will recognize something that really isn’t there. There might be a lion hiding in that thicket so if you “see” one, better safe than sorry.

The correct calculation would be the probability of getting any word combination that would cause people to “read between the lines” (or more accurately at the beginning of them) so to speak. Heck, if he would have “said” something about being a “tea bagger”, we’d say that’s “significant” too.

The relevent probability is the sum of probabilities for any significant outcome. Of course, even that probability would probably be fairly low.
higgins1990 Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 8:36 am
Much better to simply give the middle finger like Obama did to Hillary then McCain.
grooft Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 12:45 pm
What are the odds that some GOP “hotshot” in the Governators office would think it cute to spell out the F U in the letter? 1 in 20?

Equally interesting is the odds that a reader would notice, which I would put at 1 in a 1000 or worse.

What are the odds that a Republican response is to lie when they get caught in a prank like this? (It cannot be absolutely certain that ALL will lie; there are some that will successfully recite, “no comment”.)
Njorl Says:
November 1st, 2009 at 11:51 pm
Doesn’t that math sort of miss the point? Lots of things are unlikely. If I close my eyes, spin around and throw a ping pong ball its extremely unlikely it will hit any particular spot, but it will hit somewhere. After it does hit somewhere, suppose I did the math and then claimed that it was so unlikely it would hit that spot, that it almost certainly couldn’t have been caused by chance. Thats a logical fallacy.

If you coat your ping pong ball with paint, and throw it a trillion times at random spots of the walls, floors and ceiling, your room will be completely filled up with paint.

It is possible that it was just “chance”, but “chance” ranks below super-intelligent alien mind-control as a likely explanation. Given that, I’ll assume intent, and rest easily.

Matt Yglesias

The Governator’s Odds

24 Responses to “The Governator’s Odds”

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