Pakistan in Denial
Via Spencer Ackerman, Jane Perlez writes that Pakistani security officials are concerned that anti-Indian extremist groups they’ve nurtured are building ties with al-Qaeda but they don’t know how to admit this:
The senior personnel in the security forces seem to understand the gravity of the militants’ strength and the durability of their network, Mr. Saleem said. But they cannot bring themselves to say publicly that those whom they created are coming back to bite them, he said.
The problem arguably runs even deeper than this. IRI’s May 2009 survey of Pakistani public opinion asked the following question: “Terrorists recently attacked the city of Mumbia, killing 164 people. The news is reporting that the attacks were planned in Pakistan and carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba. Do you believe this is true.” 78 percent said no. Just seven percent said yes. By contrast slightly over eight percent of Americans claim to have personally witnessed an alien spaceship. In other words, it’s not just that Pakistanis don’t believe the anti-Indian terrorist groups their government has been nurturing are a threat to them, in Pakistan belief that anti-Indian terrorist groups are perpetrating attacks against India is a bit of a fringe idea.
So who do Pakistanis think was responsible?
India!
I bring this up not to rag on the population of Pakistan, but simply to point out that a lot of American commentary on Pakistani behavior seems to me to not seriously engage with the Pakistani epistemic situation. In our narrative about ourselves, Pakistan is threatened by trans-border Taliban operations and we’re working with our partners in Afghanistan to help stabilize the situation. The Pakistani view is that the Karzai government is a hostile, pro-Indian entity. The American view is that Pakistani security forces are playing a dangerous double game with lethal anti-Indian terrorists. The Pakistani view is, I guess, that terrorist attacks perpetrated in India are false flag operations designed to discredit them.
34 Responses to “Pakistan in Denial”
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October 16th, 2009 at 11:33 am
The thing to realize is that the craziest crazies we have over here have only begun to explore the depths of human stupidity.
October 16th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Only 20% of Pakistanis think the CIA organized the Mumbai attacks? File this under ‘great news’! But I wonder how many Indians think the CIA did it…
(A higher percentage of Americans thinks the CIA – or the Pentagon – was behind 9/11.)
October 16th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Oh shit.
October 16th, 2009 at 11:47 am
So who do Pakistanis think was responsible? India
that should be “claim to think was responsible”. Just as 70% of Americans conveniently claimed to think Saddam was behind 9/11 when they wanted easy revenge on Arabs, any Arabs. But when the war started going south, they claimed to have been deceived by Bush.
The whole “difficult to get a man to understand when job depends on not understanding” thing applies here. Pakistanis have no particular reason to accept agency in the Mumbai attacks.
I don’t know what engaging with the “epistemic” situation is supposed to do. Bush engaged with the epistemic situation of American delusions about Saddam by screwing up the Iraq war royally and, voila, (partial) enlightenment.
October 16th, 2009 at 11:53 am
So the Pakistanis are sorta in the same state of denial as the US was after we left Afghanistan to the Taliban and they started making nice Al Q.
Everyone thinks they do something better than the last guys did (and these guys live in the region – we didn’t). No one ever learns(until it’s too late)
October 16th, 2009 at 11:53 am
It is not preposterous for Pakistanis to think that “India” was behind the terrorist attacks if by that they meant domestic Indian groups. They may have had in mind that the group responsible was either a muslim or hindu extremist group. Such violence is after all relatively common.
While the view taken in this post may be correct, those quick to dismiss these opinions as stupid simply betray their own ignorance of the region.
October 16th, 2009 at 11:57 am
As a South Asian who believes in South Asian solidarity, etc, this is scary, downright scary. Speaks to the incredible amount of anti-India propaganda the Pakistani media and government have been putting out for years.
OTH, I have heard outlandish conspiracies ascribed to the ISI in India as well. It would be interesting to pick an analogous question to ask. Seeing that Indian intelligence orgs are not seen to be actively fomenting terrorism in Pakistan, it is hard to see one…
October 16th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
You can read Najam Sethi’s (The Friday Times, Pakistan) editorial on my blog:
http://arunsmusings.blogspot.com/2009/10/najam-sethi-threatens-huge-terrorist.html
Among other things, he writes this: “”The Pakistani military leadership cannot concede the proposed American strategy to confront the Al-Qaeda-Taliban network because it will risk losing its long-term “assets” for political adjustment in Afghanistan.”"
This despite the fact that this network has attacked Pakistani military GHQ.
Sethi then threatens a massive attack on India:
“Therefore the two America-sponsored options can be scuttled by a terrorist attack inside India that unleashes the demons of Mumbai and brings the two countries to the brink of war, diverting and diminishing attention from America’s “war against terror” and leading to political convulsion and possibly regime change in Pakistan.”
and gives the conditions under which it may not happen:
“Clearly and realistically speaking, the powerful Pakistani military and national security establishment must be part of any regional solution. It must be accorded a greater role in America’s roadmap for determining Afghanistan’s future as a peaceful and stable state that is friendly and not hostile to Pakistan. If that doesn’t happen, the odds are that the Pakistani military will strike back. The Kerry-Lugar bill is the first casualty. If renewed tension with India and regime change in Pakistan follow, there will be no winners and losers in the region.”
—-
October 16th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
I should be clear that my point is about motivation and convenience. Just because someone holds a particular crazy belief due to strong motivation and convenience, it doesn’t imply that they’ll also believe all its logical corollaries.
Pakistanis will probably do a fine job of coming to terms with the local terrorist threat without, in any way, changing their views about terrorist attacks in India.
October 16th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
@arun; you are assuming there is a thing called “pakistan” and the “pakistani military”. These are highly opaque entities and the people in charge might be only able to see down one or two levels. When I see militants attack paki installations, I assume is OTHER elements in the military giving those orders.
FWIW, the macroview held by Pakistani elites has a certain element of truth. Karzai is a dangerous leader funded by enemies of Pakistan (India) and highly unreliable allies (the US). What Karzai wants is the dismemberment of Pakistan and the creation of a greater Pashtunistan. Funding the Taliban to fight him makes sense because for 30 years they’ve been doing the same thing in India. That is all logical, except for assuming that funding militant groups isn’t going to have major blowback.
October 16th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
@mpowell: Yeah, the situation is pretty depressing. We complain about FOX viewers all the time; but the sad fact is that it’s not an American phenomenon. In the political realm at least, “facts” determined by parochial tribalism rather than evidence are pretty much the human norm. Murdoch just institutionalized it.
October 16th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
When the Mumbai attacks happened, my Pakistani friend said India did it.
When the video of the Taliban in Pakistan whipping that women came out, a different Pakistani friend says it was a fake.
9/11… an Egyptian friend said it was an American conspiracy.
Islam can do no wrong… and that’s what we are dealing with
October 16th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
@11 aks2: “In the political realm at least, “facts” determined by parochial tribalism rather than evidence are pretty much the human norm. Murdoch just institutionalized it.”
Yup. Most humans chose to be willfully misled.
October 16th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
The other side of the coin is that when a sewer main breaks and floods a street in Bangalore it’s a Pakistani conspiracy in India.
“Don’t know” is probably the best answer anyway to “Who do you think was responsible” anyway. I don’t know what happened, but no order came down from Islamabad to do what happened in Mumbai.
October 16th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
There are large parts of the world where men compete to prove themselves the smartest guy in the room by seeing who can come up with the most complicated conspiracy theory. Occam’s Razor is not universally popular.
October 16th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
The other side of the coin is that when a sewer main breaks and floods a street in Bangalore it’s a Pakistani conspiracy in India.
Bullshit!
October 16th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
you are assuming there is a thing called “pakistan” and the “pakistani military”. These are highly opaque entities and the people in charge might be only able to see down one or two levels.
The US government apparently has no trouble in identifying “pakistan” and giving it $7.5 billion in aid, so don’t give me this nonsense.
October 16th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
intelligence orgs are not seen to be actively fomenting terrorism in Pakistan
Sure. Keep believing that. Back in the 90s, a bombing in Indian Kashmir would, coincidentally, be followed by a “mysterious” explosion in a market in Hyderabad. That’s how it works.
Pakistani’s have a high capacity for delusions So do Indians. Ask a NRI Gujurati about Modi’s role in the Gujurat pogroms. Delusions are universal, the objects are particular. Hell, a good proportion of that race of superintelligent geniuses, the Americans, thought Saddam had a role in the WTC attacks.
The Swat operation showed Pakistan can deal with militants when it wants to. A strange upsurge of terrorist attacks just as the US begins engaging civilians in Pakistan? Watch them vanish once America’s usual pro-Pakistani military policy comes back. Wheels within wheels, baby. And all of this without any exploding mangoes!
October 16th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Re: Ask a NRI Gujurati about Modi’s role in the Gujurat pogroms.
Um, I know plenty of Indians, and plenty of NRI Indians. No Gujaratis, I’ll concede. But very few of the ones I know are any admirer of the butcher Modi. Who, I will concede, should face the gallows for his role in the pogroms.
October 16th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Hector — far off topic, but Modi was re-elected (twice!) by the Gujarati Hindu population, and remains popular with NRIs in America. He had been invited to speak to the Asian American Hotel Owners Association in 2005 till Condeleeza Rice denied his visa application. He tried again in 2008 with the Association of Indian Americans of North America, still denied. His defendors can be found at many Indian-American political websites that are not explicitly left-wing.
This is all easily google-able. Perhaps you don’t have a mainstream (read: Punjabi and Gujrati) crosection of Indian-American friends?
October 16th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
Re: Perhaps you don’t have a mainstream (read: Punjabi and Gujrati) crosection of Indian-American friends?
No, I don’t. Most of the actual Indians I know are South Indian Tamils who consider the BJP a perfect example of north Indian barbarism, and most of the North Indian extraction people I know are Westernized Indian-Americans who wouldn’t know the BJP from a purple cow.
I was simply pointing out that there is _also_ a large contingent of Indians, both at home and in America, that consider Modi to be a vicious murderer.
October 16th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…oh, my aching sides. Like they couldn’t see that one coming.
Given that all of the Mumbai attackers were from Pakistan, and nine of the ten were from Pakistani Punjab, it is a smaller leap of the imagination to assume that they were recruited by LeT, which is based in eastern Pakistan, than to assume that India convinced ten Pakistanis to make their own country look bad.
But, of course, that’s too simple for 78% of Pakistani respondents.
October 16th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
What Karzai wants is the dismemberment of Pakistan and the creation of a greater Pashtunistan.
Not really, no one seriously entertains this idea. And certainly no one in the Pakistani establishment.
October 16th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
I won’t repeat my prescriptions for the India-Pakistan relationship, but suffice to say that Matt’s comment demonstrates one more reason (as if the fact that both are nuclear states is not enough) why it would be a good idea to put an American push behind some efforts to improve relations between India and Pakistan. It’s not as sexy as the Israel-Palestine problem, but it’s really important nonetheless.
October 16th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Re: I won’t repeat my prescriptions for the India-Pakistan relationship, but suffice to say that Matt’s comment demonstrates one more reason (as if the fact that both are nuclear states is not enough) why it would be a good idea to put an American push behind some efforts to improve relations between India and Pakistan
There’s a big problem with this. I don’t know about Pakistan, but Indians do _not_ like anyone telling them what to do, and especially not the United States.
October 16th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Hector, there’s all sorts of constructive roles that non-parties can play in diplomatic negotiations that don’t constitute “telling” a party “what to do”. Everything from hosting a conference to drafting a peace plan to providing a mediator to do shuttle diplomacy to offering bribes and inducements. It’s not like diplomacy is some new and untried mechanism– these sorts of methods have produced many agreements over the years, some better than others.
India’s a pretty powerful country. They have a growing economy, a bright population, and nuclear weapons. Heck, even Pakistan is a more powerful country than people appreciate. Nobody’s going to be telling either of these parties what to do– but that doesn’t mean there is nothing we can do to further a better relationship.
October 16th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
They meet with each other already. The only bribes and inducements that either country might want from us are military, and those are right out.
I don’t see how adding America to the equation magically changes anything, other than to turn 1.3 billion people against us.
October 16th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/16-Oct-2009/A-clearcut-war-on-Pakistan
“It is like an open secret that the terrorists are getting all kinds of support from Afghanistan. Pakistan must have to review its policy toward Afghanistan and the unconditional support being given by Pakistan to the NATO forces, which are silent while the Indians are recruiting Afghans and sending them into Pakistan to carry out terror attacks.
Pakistan should immediately cut the supply line of NATO forces and summon the US ambassador in Pakistan to explain her position. There are also strong reports that the USA after its failure in Afghanistan is pushing the war inside Pakistan.
Everybody in the City is terrified. We cannot tolerate such a situation. We, as a nation, can afford all kinds of sanctions, but will not accept the controversial Kerry Lugar Bill. How will we respond to the loss of our innocent Pakistani lived when we refuse to identify our enemies?”
October 16th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
Re: Ask a NRI Gujurati about Modi’s role in the Gujurat pogroms.
— The case would be remotely comparable if Modi was also attacking said NRI Gujaratis.
October 16th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
Back in the 90s, a bombing in Indian Kashmir would, coincidentally, be followed by a “mysterious” explosion in a market in Hyderabad. That’s how it works.
Yeah, right. You can show us press reports of these coincidental bombings?
October 16th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
“That’s why, for example, today, if you mention names like Musharraf, Zardari. Altaf Hussain or Nawaz Sharif, one won’t be surprised to see a number of Pakistanis leap into to action, getting into an animated mode, criticising and lambasting corrupt politicians and power-hungry generals. However, the moment you try to discuss a recent episode of suicide bombing, most Pakistanis can then be seen suddenly going into a shell, trying to avoid the topic.
The majority will not condone suicide bombings and terrorism, but they will not condemn it either – or at least the way it should be condemned. No wonder, according to a recent survey, most Pakistanis actually believe terrorism is a secondary problem in their country – rather obnoxious a delusion indeed.”
From, The Dawn, Karachi.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/03-the-great-denial-ss-01
October 16th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
More from the above:
“What Musharraf represented or what this present government is all about in the form of the establishment comes with a historical and visible baggage. It is thus a target that can be clearly seen, pinpointed and attacked, whereas extremism remains an elusive enemy. Some would even go to the extent of negating its very existence, in spite of the ubiquitous sights of blood, bodies and limbs quivering on blackened streets. So, it is not general apathy or distracted energies of the people that the extremists are feeding on; it is a collective case of denial on the part of an increasing number of Pakistanis that is strengthening the extremists. A denial made worse by the animated apologists found babbling and foaming incoherent and unsubstantiated drivel across the many TV screens and channels of the nation.
Though it is true the terrorists are not overwhelmingly popular with the masses, it is also true that most Pakistanis have yet to perceive the extremists as the kind of enemy that they really are. With ready-made explanations like RAW, CIA and that ‘fellow Muslims are being subjected to state atrocities in the north’ spiel being their best answers to the madness of extremism and terrorism, it is highly unlikely to expect Pakistanis to tackle the issue anytime soon – in spite the fact that maybe it’s already too late.”
October 17th, 2009 at 1:06 am
Dilan Esper,
If you were one of the American negotiatiors you talk about, just what would you suggest India and Pakistan do?
I know you’re going to say, “grant independence to Kashmir”. And I’ve come to agree with you that that would, morally speaking, a good idea. Then what? What if that doesn’t solve the problem?
October 17th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
Hector:
I am not a diplomat. But I assume you do the same sorts of things that Carter did with Israel and Egypt. Offer security guarantees, money, trade, presidential visits, etc.
And I want to make this clear. It doesn’t always work. But it’s worth trying– heck, even if it doesn’t work, being more engaged in that part of the world will help us with the sorts of problems we are currently having with Pakistan in fighting radicals.