Early Results Making Me Look Ridiculous
I don’t think all that highly of my abilities as a sports prognosticator, but I really did think it would take more than two days of action for my NBA predictions to start looking foolish. But I said Cleveland would be the best team in the league and even though I think Boston will be very good thought Cleveland and Orlando would both be better. This theory took a hit when Boston beat Cleveland on opening night. But one game is one game. Then came last night. Boston thrashed a weak Charlotte Bobcats team while the James Gang went and . . . lost to Toronto. Basically nobody except Shaq on Cleveland shot a good percent. LeBron put up a triple-double and took enough free throws (although he shot these with a bad percentage, too) to make the overall scoring pretty efficient, but everyone else stank. And since when is Andrea Bargnani good?
Oh well. Frankly, I don’t much care for the Cavs so I’d be happy for them to turn out to be surprisingly bad. But I just don’t see how this personnel could fail.
44 Responses to “Early Results Making Me Look Ridiculous”
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October 29th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
If that your new diet and that’s you in the picture, then i don’t think that the early results are making you look rediculous at all. If not, never mind….
October 29th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Well, fuck you then. The Cavs do suck. I thought about switching to baseball when they got down 20, but I didn’t want to watch Cliff Lee vs. C.C. Sabathia. Cleveland sports suck.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Not an NBA fan, but normally when you have good personnel and still lose that’s when you blame the coaching.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
It’s the first two games. Weird stuff happens in the first week to ten days of the season.
Yes, we can conclude that the Celtics are very, very good. No, we can’t conclude that the Cavs are bad.
Remember when the Patriots lost to the Jets? You should have heard the gloom and doom on the sports talk radio up here.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Bargnani isn’t a great player by any means, but he’s a reasonably good scorer…and a very good one when matched up against one of the worst defensive centers in the league.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
We have a head coach who has no interest whatsoever in the offensive half of the game.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
I’m with J.W. Hamner, and I do watch basketball. I’ve never been impressed by Mike Brown. Part of it is how the Wizards and Cavs was always a pretty decent game regardless of how well the Wizards were playing. In a 19-win season the Wiz picked up 2 at home against the Cavs. Last year’s Wizards team was dreadful and the Cavs were quite good yet they could not beat up on a bad team they’d faced in the playoffs 3 years in a row and play 4 times a year. If we assume the players are not the problem (and that’s a pretty big assumption; however, Shaq/Lebron are pretty well proven commodities) then it’s got to be coaching.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
If the Celtics can keep consistently easily beating mediocre to bad teams, while keeping the old guys’, especially Garnett’s, minutes down, they are going to be very, very, formidable come April, May, and June. They have to really be aggravated that Davis got himself injured stupidly.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Adventures in small sample size.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Is Shaq too big to fail?
October 29th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
They have to really be aggravated that Davis got himself injured stupidly.
Incredibly irritating. But on the bright side, that Williams kid out of Duke had a pretty solid game last night. I doubt he’d be seeing many minutes without Baby’s injury, and I’m inclined to think he warrants a good look.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
If they’re healthy, the Celtics are the team to beat,even the Lakers don’t match up. But come May/June, that’s a pretty big if..
As for why the Cavs look bad, Shaq is a bad fit and he’s about 20% of what he once was. He’s not dominant down low, he has no range, and he can’t move; plus, he hogs up a tremendous amount of space. He’s Z without a shot. He’s going to go 12-8 in 25 minutes/night until the inevitable midseason knee injury.
A huge step backwards. At least the NJ Nets are happy…
October 29th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
When is Bargnani good? When Shaq is guarding him.
I really don’t understand why anyone thinks adding Shaq makes Cleveland better. They might still win it all, because they were a championship-level team without Shaq, but the big fella doesn’t help them at all. Their biggest problem against Orlando in the playoffs was lack of speed at the 4 and 5, and Shaq is the only guy in the league who’s almost as slow as Big Z. They also have problems getting enough shooters on the floor with LeBron, and now they have a starting lineup with 2 big men who can’t shoot from outside of 6 feet.
Getting Stephen Jackson would help, because he can shoot and he can defend guys of lots of different sizes. It would give LeBron a break from guarding the opposing 3, and they could go small and put 4 or 5 shooters on the floor.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
And since when did the Cavs go from LeBron and a bunch of clowns to a team with personnel that can’t fail? We’re still looking at a team with only one legit All-Star. A team whose second-best player is Mo Williams. Think about how many guys the Lakers have who are at least as good as Mo Williams. Kobe, Gasol, Odom, Artest. Maybe even Bynum. The Celtics have 4 guys better than Mo Williams, too.
I like Cleveland’s personnel, too, because they have a nice collection of role players, and because LeBron really is that good. But they’re not some unbeatable juggernaut of talent.
October 29th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Shaq footnote: He’s 37 years old and ~370 lbs. When Hakeem Olajuwon turned 37, he went from 19-10 to 10-6, and he actually took care of his body. David Robinson put up 8.5-8 when he was 37. Best 37 year-old centers of all time? Kareem (22-8), followed by Ewing and Parish (15-10). All guys who took care of themselves and still were shadows of their prime by 37. Why would anyone expect Shaq to dominate?
October 29th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
the personnel in cleveland doesn’t fit their (offensive) system. the real issue with the system as it operates current is that
1) shaq kills cleveland from the line, especially late in games. full display of this in the opener against boston, even though he had a decent defensive effort, shaq clanged two vital free throws and then became invisible as his teammates (lebron) were afraid to give him the ball.
2) the lack of mobility from their center tandem puts them at a big disadvantage against teams whose bigs stretch the defense. teams like boston (garnett, wallace) and toronto (bosh, bargnani).
3) anderson varejao, a miracle stretch against boston notwithstanding, can’t hit jumpshots with any consistency. the cavaliers are effectively playing 4-on-5 (offensively) with him out there. mo williams is as inept on the defensive end as varejao is on offense.
4) they’re incorporating a lot of new rotation members (shaq, moon, parker). i think they’ll still make the over (barely), but it will take a while for the team to gel. their lack of mobility will be exploited in the playoffs, especially by teams like boston and orlando.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
It’s the first two games. Weird stuff happens in the first week to ten days of the season.
Frankly, weird stuff happens throughout the NBA season and especially come playoff time.
You may want to checkout the Tim Donaghy excerpts on Deadspin today. Granted the guy is a crook but still…
October 29th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Apparently Cleveland’s offense was run by assistant coach John Keuster last year. This year he’s the Pistons’ head coach, and the Pistons blew out Memphis at home last night. Therefore, assistant coaches, rather than personnel, are clearly the true key to a good NBA offense.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Agree with the above that you can’t really expect Shaq (or Big Z) to be able to guard Bargnani. Bargnani camps out by the 3 point line!
I didn’t see the game, but the idea that Mike Brown played Shaq/Z big minutes is crazy. Play Jamario Moon or somebody on Bargnani! As with last year’s Orlando series, Mike Brown doesn’t seem to be able to match up guys well at all.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
James,
Some teams just play other teams tough. It’s inexplicable. The Bobcats owned the Lakers last year even though those same Lakers owned the Cavs and the Celtics.
I think it’s too early to judge the Cavs, but the loss of John Kuester to Detorit may prove far more damaging than previously expected.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Is there any evidence that Shaq is still a plus defender? He looked pretty hopeless in the two hilights I saw. May not be representative, but still ..
October 29th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
At least the NJ Nets are happy…
Puzzling over this remark. Can’t refer to last night, since the Nets blew a 15 point lead against the awful Timberwolves in the last 6 minutes of the game.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
the bobcats owned the lakers last year? they won their two matchups, but one came in double overtime and the other was closer than the score indicated. again, you can make the most of your opportunities, but you can’t read too much into it.
the lakers owned the celtics last year? again, two wins in two games is nice, but with one (by one point) coming in overtime. yes the christmas matchup was big (because the celtics were rolling) but i don’t read too much into these regular season home-and-aways…
October 29th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
It’s not the personnel, it’s the team chemistry. Cleveland will be dangerous once again come playoff time.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Old Shaq has issues. Did you not see how he played in Phoenix? He’s a plus if he can be a complimentary player but he’s a minus if he wants to be the focus of offensive possessions. It kills fast breaks and ball movement. I thought Cleveland had a plan to use him in limited spots to anchor different looks while keeping last years offensive sets but they look horrid.
Pistons are 1-0 baby!
University of Connecticut-Detroit branch is looking good.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Another example of how basketball numbers deceive, especially re: defense. You can’t find an individual stat that shows how lumbering and ineffective Shaq is more than a couple of steps away from the hoop, because of the fluidity of the game, and because the guy killing Cleveland is not necessarily going to be Shaq’s man. For example, late in the Boston game, Shaq was completely useless against the pick and roll — he’s always lumbered trying to step out against a guard who can pull up and shoot, but now it’s worst than that — he can’t even get a hand up. The combination of Sheed and KG against Shaq and Z is going to be just deadly this year. Shaq is not going to help Cleveland against good teams — just the lousy ones.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
that’s what happens, Matt, when you rely solely on stats to analyze and appreciate the game of basketball. intangibles such as team chemistry always come into play.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Here’s something from Henry Abbott’s Bullets today:
This is just further to my point that last night was simply the wrong night to be playing Shaq and Z a lot of minutes. Mike Brown has to figure out when to play Shaq and when not to – quickly.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Isn’t this just a one-year experiment by the Cavs, a last desperate shot to keep LeBron after this year?
I think the Cavs will come up short again and LeBron will move to the Knicks. Shaq will bounce around to another team or maybe even follow LeBron depending on how they play together this year.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
And next Bullet down, Abbott links to John Hollinger:
October 29th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
At least the NJ Nets are happy…
Puzzling over this remark. Can’t refer to last night, since the Nets blew a 15 point lead against the awful Timberwolves in the last 6 minutes of the game.
Al, I’m referring to the Nets’ attempting to sign LeBron in the offseason. If he’s unhappy with the Cavs, he’s gone, and JayZ et al have a shot at him (though I’d be shocked if he went to NJ)..
October 29th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Yeah, there’s no moneyball in the NBA. It just doesn’t work like that.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
No could have predicted that adding a 37-year-old, 370 lb center with no speed or quickness would hurt the offense AND defense of a basketball team.
The people who thought that bringing in Shaq to “help” Cleveland need to be fired for gross incompetence. It has been obvious for years that his presence hurts a team when the game it plays relies on movement and quickness. The answer to when to play Shaq is – you don’t.
Dwight Howard must be counting down the days until he gets to wear out Shaq. At this point I think Kareem could drop 15 and 10 on him.
BTW, those people who think that all Cleveland need is chemistry are probably right. But if they think that Shaq is going to supply that chemistry they are sadly mistaken. At what point in Shaq’s career has he done that? (Except for those commercials with Ben Stein. Those are great.)
October 29th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
LeBron … took enough free throws
I watched last night’s game, and if it (ie. the “LeBron Rules” officiating) is a sign of things to come, LeBron is going to be spending most of the time at the stripe. BRUTAL.
There were at least two “blocking” fouls called on the Raptors where the player had established position, unpacked a lunch, done a Sudoku puzzle, and called his mom before LeBron came plowing into them. Hell, one of those was Chris Bosh – doesn’t he get any respect from the refs?
I think this comment just sent LeBron to the line to shoot 3 more…
October 29th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
I hope Cleveland is terrible. Not only because I’m an Orlando fan, but also because this has the potential to become the all time greatest SI cover jinx of all time. It’s basically destroyed all sports in the city.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Hollinger: “The only strong offensive quarter for Cleveland… the Cavs scored 32 points by playing a small lineup with LeBron at power forward”
Power forward is where LeBron belongs. It is not a glamorous position anymore thanks to Michael, but having LeBron play the 4 is more efficient than using him as a 6′8,” 265 lb point guard. Not only is LeBron a woefully inaccurate long range shooter but bringing the ball up 50 or 60 times a game requires energy, energy that is needlessly wasted. That’s what teams pay point guards for, to bring the ball up, and then deliver the ball to the scorer in the right spots.
I see LeBron dominating from the high-low post. Like a supercharged Kevin McHale. Get him the ball anywhere in a semi-circle 10′ to 12′ out, and let him go work. McHale was unstoppable in that role, and LeBron obviously has way more talent and drive, and unlike McHale, he is not a Black Hole. LeBron is quite clearly one the great passers in the game’s history.
He would shred defenses down there, scoring, dunking, dishing, and wiping the offensive glass. I can see him leading the league in scoring, rebounding and assists in the same season. It’s possible. He has that kind of freakish talent. He just needs a system designed to utilize/maximize his remarkable gifts. If it happens, he wins multiple titles -and cements himself as the best player in history.
October 29th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
“I see LeBron dominating from the high-low post.”
That would require LeBron changing the way he’s played the game since he could bounce a ball.
I knew a guy once who had the most gosh-awful shooting form you can imagine. He literally starting shooting the ball from his hip. That’s because he started seriously practicing outside shots when he was just a little kid and wasn’t strong enough to get the ball to the hoop. LeBron’s the opposite thing, so physically gifted that he never developed a game that maximized his advantages because he never needed to. As much as I love Paul Pierce, LeBron is so much bigger and stronger that he could destroy him in the post. But he never does, because he’s always been able to beat guys face-up (which he can still do to Pierce, but not as overwhelmingly as he could in the post).
Mike
October 29th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
It is now Lebron’s 7th season in the league, and he has had more than one coach, and all of his coaches have been blamed for not having a clue on the offensive side of the ball. At what point do we wonder whether Lebron is limited in his game? He is obviously a great talent, and is a phenominal athlete, and all that.
How many more coaches would we have to recycle before we at least consider the possibility that he isn’t as good as his media empire has announced?
October 29th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
hard to call lebron limited when he’s been the focal point of a finals team, an ECF semi-finalist that lost to the eventual champion, and another ECF team that won 60+ games.
mike brown is a solid defensive coach, and frankly its hard to blame him for the poor performance of the offense. that blame falls on danny ferry. brown could be a little more creative in how he puts together lineups, but i think the cavs are experimenting right now.
October 29th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
“At what point do we wonder whether Lebron is limited in his game?”
It’s a team game, and one requiring the right combination of
talents and tactics. Heck, Michael Jordan didn’t win a championship until his 7th year.
Now if he really wants to win, he should forgo a few million
dollars next year and take Ray Allen’s spot on the Celtics:
a team with KG, Pierce, and LeBron would really be one for
the ages. Not going to happen though
October 29th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
that’s what happens, Matt, when you rely solely on stats to analyze and appreciate the game of basketball.
People keep saying this, but Al pointed to two separate links about Shaq was -25 the other night. That’s a stat, right there. In fact, I haven’t read a single stat-geek argue that picking up Shaq would help Cleveland.
October 29th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
@37MBunge: “That would require LeBron changing the way he’s played the game since he could bounce a ball.”
It would and it wouldn’t, Mike. LeBron has an incredible low post game already. He has an array of moves. Up and unders, little one-handed fallaways, he’s willing to use the glass, has a cool little hook shot, and we know he can split big defenders and dunk.
Jordan became great and became a champion when Phil Jackson insisted that he give up the ball. You know? The Triangle Offense has a lot of functions, but a key element of the Triangle is to allow the primary scorer to get ball in good spots with time and space to operate, without him having to resort to pounding the rock.
I have no problem with Mike Brown as a head coach. Cleveland plays hard, night in, night out. But modern basketball is starting to resemble football in the level of sophistication required by coaching staffs. LeBron might just be one great offensive coordinater away from figuring it all out.
And maybe a couple of good players, too, eh?
October 29th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
That’s because this will finally be Bargnani’s break out year. Haters.
Go Raps!
October 30th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Way too early to be worrying about your predictions Matt, especially regarding Cleveland, who will need time to integrate Shaq and Parker, and who are likely going to pick up another key piece during the season.