DC Near a Tipping Point
When it comes to urban transportation, path dependency issues are everywhere. The more car-dependent people are the more political support there’ll be for car-promoting policies. Conversely, the more there retail and job opportunities are already accessible through non-automotive means, the more realistic it is for new residents to get by without a car, or for a family to get by with only one. And one interesting thing about the District of Columbia is that according to the Census Bureau we’re nearly fifty-fifty in terms of commuting patterns.
The city is also poised for further development and population growth in the years to come. So a crucial question is what form will that development take? If an outdated zoning code and short-sighted neighborhood groups force all new development to include vast swathes of parking, the city stands a good chance of “tipping” into a car-dependent pattern over time. Alternatively, if we create a situation in which new residents own cars if and only if they’re inclined to pay the true cost of owning and storing a vehicle, the city could achieve a clear majority for people who commute through non-automotive means. If that happens, the political context will exist for policies that clearly prioritize moving people over moving automobiles—things like dedicated bus lanes, separated bike paths, and traffic light timing schemes that take into account pedestrian safety and convenience. If that happens, it’s likely to be self-reinforcing.
With policy tilted more in favor of ease of transit, walking, and cycling more people will decide against relying on a car for day-to-day use. And that will create a bigger market for things like Zipcar and walking-accessible neighborhood retail. Most American cities are so firmly in the car-dependency camp that it’s a bit hard to know how you might get from here to there. But DC is right in the middle, and stands a good chance of evolving over the next couple of decades into a solid urbanist model, though it could also turn into a major missed opportunity.
17 Responses to “DC Near a Tipping Point”
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October 6th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
And yet, if the city continues vastly underfunding metro to the point where crashes and other major delays (like this morning’s fire) make it hard for people to consistently get to work on time… that undermines the culture. It’s not just urban planning, it’s also upkeep on what we already have.
The other crucial improvement that you don’t mention is how often buses run. In DC, the most heavily trafficked bus routes run every 8-10 minutes during weekday rush hour. Most routes are more like 15-20 (again at rush). And late at night, or on the weekends (crucial if people are really going to abandon cars)… half an hour is more common than not. In most major European cities, the wait times are closer to half that, because the volume is twice as high–making bus travel more dependable, which in turn leads more people to use the bus. Metro is great, but it doesn’t go everywhere. Part of the tipping you describe needs to be higher volume bus routes.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
The suburbs are a glaring omission from that pie chart. (Granted, if it’s not the scope of the study then it’s not the scope of the study, but still.) I live in Arlington, but commute to work in DC by public transportation.
I’m surprised so many DC residents drive as it is (unless “other” is some big category that doesn’t come to mind), although I guess I should see the numbers for some other areas before I assume that’s really high.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
San Francisco is 52/48 non-car, with carpoolers making up a quarter of the car commuters. Not that that pushes city “leaders” to do anything for bikes or buses. Our bike plan was stalled by one lone fruitcake lawsuit for over three years, and the bus rapid transit plan – which I wouldn’t call bold – hasn’t budged an inch in years despite a price tag in the $100-$150 million range per line. We spend that kind of money upgrading an interchange. I don’t think you can blame this on local neighborhood leaders – it’s a lack of leadership by the city, state and our local congresswoman.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
The concept of a tipping point is just silly. Was DC at a tipping point in the 1970s before it built the Metro system? I’m all for better public transport, but the concept that there is some magic tipping point is just silly.
Incidentally, in the attached link it shows that the ratio of graduate school educated residents to high school residents is roughly 1:1 are we somehow at a tipping point there?
PS – Malcolm Gladwell probably wants a cut of this post.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
@ Cyrus. I don’t think the number that drives is that surprising at all. There is a decent sized area of the city that doesn’t support Metro terribly well. I would include much of the Georgetown/Glover Park/Palisades area as well as Chevy Chase and other part around Rock Creek. My sense is that there are also significant parts of Northeast DC that Fall into this relative isolation. Additionally, there is just tons of free parking in federal buildings.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Actually the world is at a tipping point. China is putting 2,000 net additional cars on the road every day. The U.S. could take the lead and stop the $trillions in private auto subsidies. But it won’t come from the federal government. It will come from localities deciding they have had enough of the congestion, traffic deaths, parking woes, drainage problems, noise, stress, etc.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Additionally, there is just tons of free parking in federal buildings.
Not sure I’d call it tons. Parking spaces in most of the federal buildings in the District are limited enough to have to distribute passes via some combination of RHIP and lotteries.
The other flaw in the tipping point theory is that Congress has a huge role in DC transportation decisions and will insist on keeping priorities car-centric for the convenience of themselves and their staffs no matter what the locals think.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
I can’t speak to the veracity of spot check billy’s first paragraph, but the second one is right on the money. I’d also add that while I haven’t heard anything about it in a while, I recall the VA suburbanites being particularly hostile to the idea of paying or using taxes to fund the very metro that branches out into their locales.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
The growth DC is getting isn’t fully healthy; you can see this in the continued shrinkage of (and awful state of) the school system there. A healthy area will have a growing or stable amount of students – that’s not DC
October 6th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Does the data from DC-proper tell us the whole story? You have to keep in mind that DC is a huge metropolitan area. Even more important, the employers there draw workers from far beyond that metropolitan area. From wiki:
“Officially, the area is designated by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as the Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV CSA. It is composed primarily of two major metropolitan areas, the Baltimore-Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and the Washington Metropolitan Area. In addition, three other smaller urban areas not contiguous to the main urban area but having strong commuting ties with the main area are also included in the metropolitan area. These are the Winchester, VA-WV MSA, the Lexington Park, MD Micropolitan area and the Culpeper, VA Micropolitan area.”
So maybe it makes sense for the federal agencies to have a lot of parking. As I understand it, there is demand for much, much more. Which would seem to give lie to the idea that people move to the exurbs because of a falsely inflated attention to parking. According to people who work at those agencies, there is not nearly enough parking. But they moved to the exurbs anyway.
I think that’s a dumb thing to do. When I was living in DC, I was perpetually mystified be people who willfully commuted two hours a day, just so they could have an extra 500 square feet in Northern Virginia. But there you have it.
October 6th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
In DC, the most heavily trafficked bus routes run every 8-10 minutes during weekday rush hour. Most routes are more like 15-20 (again at rush). And late at night, or on the weekends (crucial if people are really going to abandon cars)… half an hour is more common than not.
I don’t want to deny or downplay the horrible crappiness of bus service in Washington, but this picture isn’t entirely accurate. The 42 (and now 43, which goes under Dupont Circle–why did it take this long?) bus, for example, which if not the busiest route in the city is certainly among the busiest, runs every two to five minutes during rush hour, every 8 to 10 minutes mid-day, then 15-20 later at night. I would submit that the 42/43 doesn’t run often because it’s busy, it’s busy because it runs often.
On the other hand, many routes don’t merely run infrequently late at night and on weekends, they don’t run at all. I give you the L1/L4, for example.
October 6th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Unfortunately, I don’t think we’re as close to a tipping point as the chart implies. Much of that “public transportation” slice is no doubt made up of the working poor — folks who ride the bus, but don’t exert much political clout. To get into an equilibrium where the politically connected class prioritizes non-car means of transportation will still take a lot of work.
October 6th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Since the Feds have a huge influence in DC development patterns and infrastructure funding, and the control of the federal government is dependent on GDP growth in years divisible by four (Yglesias Unified Political theory), the path of DC development is therefore up to Ben Bernanke. Are Fed Chairperson’s mode of commute broken out separately?
October 6th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
@James Robertson: Please check your facts.
The growth DC is getting isn’t fully healthy; you can see this in the continued shrinkage of (and awful state of) the school system there. A healthy area will have a growing or stable amount of students – that’s not DC
The DC Public Schools enrollment has arguably stopped its decline, a turnaround helped by an ad campaign and re-branding with a celebrity Chancellor, a cracker jack facilities maven, and a ton of Mayoral support. Most notably, however, is the fact that public school enrollment overall has not really been declining in DC. The charter school movement is booming, with that sector’s enrollment surging in recent years. Middle class families are staying in DC and keeping their kids in school. That will grow the tax base and provide revenue for more school public improvement (traditional and charter) — another tipping point for DC!
October 7th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
There’s no reason to think the tipping point has anything to do with the midpoint or 50% mark. Just sloppy thinking.
October 7th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
[...] released as part of the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Matt Yglesias honed in on the transportation mode share for DC residents: When it comes to urban transportation, path dependency issues are [...]
October 13th, 2009 at 5:29 am
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