Afghan Public Opinion
Mark Kleiman summarizes some key bullet points from the Asia Foundation’s most recent survey of public opinion:
— In 2009, 42 percent of respondents say that the country is moving in the right direction.
— This figure is higher than in 2008 (38%). Similarly, 29 percent feel that the country is moving in the wrong direction compared to 32 percent in 2008, signaling a check on the trend of declining optimism that had been evident since 2006.
—The main reason for optimism continues to be good security which has been mentioned by an increasing proportion of respondents each year, from 31 percent in 2006 to 44 percent in 2009. More respondents in 2009 also mention reconstruction and rebuilding (36%) and opening of schools for girls (21%) as reasons for optimism than in previous years.
— Insecurity also remains the most important reason for pessimism, cited by 42 percent of respondents. However, the proportion of respondents that highlight insecurity in 2009 has fallen since 2008 when half of respondents (50%) emphasized this factor.
— Insecurity (including attacks, violence and terrorism) is identified as the biggest problem in Afghanistan by over a third of respondents (36%), particularly in the South East (48%), West (44%) and South West (41%). However, concern about other issues such as unemployment (35%), poor economy (20%), corruption (17%), poverty (11%) and education (11%) has increased in 2009 compared to 2008.
I think you can use this data to support a variety of policy conclusion. But it’s striking that the US debate between escalation and scaling-back tends to proceed from a shared assumption that Afghanistan is in a crisis point. But Afghans seem to think things are improving. Note also that corruption, which has been talked about a lot over the past month, rates relatively low on the complaint scale. In terms of unemployment it seems to me that the most helpful thing we can do would be to revise trade policies. Allow the duty free importation of Afghan textiles to the American market. See what it takes to persuade Turkey and India to stop putting such high taxes on Afghan agricultural products.
This kind of thing is very boring to talk about and isn’t amenable to David Brooks writing columns about how the real issue is whether or not Obama is manly enough to demand victory. But it’s really important. Poor labor market conditions make people disgruntled. In stable democracies they vote for opposition parties. In non-stable places they may take up arms.
5 Responses to “Afghan Public Opinion”
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October 31st, 2009 at 2:54 pm
In 2009, 42 percent of respondents say that the country is moving in the right direction. This figure is higher than in 2008 (38%).
It’s not surprising: they already killed almost twice as many occupying soldiers this year as in 2008.
October 31st, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Well, if you read the methodology, you’ll see that this year is the first year they couldn’t reach all the areas they wanted to poll due to insecurity.
October 31st, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Good idea. However, there is one wrinkle. Allowing for legal poppy production would be a good idea, both to allow for legal avenues for farmers growing one of the more profitable crops in the region and to increase the supply of certain pharmaceuticals made from poppies that are currently undersupplied in Africa. While we do have arrangements with two nations to legally import poppies for pharmaceutical production, those two nations are Turkey and India, who probably wouldn’t want to see their market share go down.
October 31st, 2009 at 7:49 pm
You are talking nation-building, Matteo. I like it. Need more of it.
We don’t need to build skyscrapers in Baghran. Or Kabul. But wells for water, generators for electricity, some friendly trade policies, little things -could make all the difference.
Diplomacy. Talk to Turkey and India. Ask them for a favor. Ask them to help us help our little friend Afghanistan. That’s nation-building, where I come from.
@3 Reality Man: “While we do have arrangements with two nations to legally import poppies for pharmaceutical production, those two nations are Turkey and India, who probably wouldn’t want to see their market share go down.”
Interesting.
Matt, get to work on that one, will ya? You work Sundays, right? Poor bastard. Do you ever take a day off? You’re a grinder, I’ll give you that. No higher praise can be given.
November 1st, 2009 at 3:12 pm
[THE FOX AND COBRA]
Now, we read an article, [Generals Can't Be Trusted, by Lee Siegel, http://www.TheDailyBeast.Com., now we question as to if Lee had at any time been in the military himself, or understands the position those on the ground are now in, they have a [12::01] a twelve to one ratio over the [IFF] Islamic Freedom Fighters and are losing, the [MIC] Military Industrial Complex, wants to increase that ratio to a [20::01] twenty-one ratio, much as General of the Armies Douglas MacArthur, and later in Vietnam William Westmoreland, the head of U.S. Military Operations and then Army Chief of Staff [ A MIC Board Member], it is always the same and Lee has got to get that understood, It’s More Money, More Troops, More Time, More Mission Creep, and More Strategies to in the end gain Victory as defined by the political class. Lee just doesn’t get it, your either in or your out but you just can’t be betwixt and between. If Lee is saying we should withdraw then support a total withdrawal, if Lee is for Victory as defined by [Political] dictum than support Victory at any cost, any middle course is a crime against humanity.
[The Art of War, VINI,VIDI,VICI]
Karl von Clausewitz was correct [War] is a continuation of [Politics] by other means and no it does not mean it’s clear that he considered the objectives of [Politicians] and their Generals to be the same, that is just plain nuts,Generals are to be Neutral in [Politics] the Generals job is the Art of War [VINI,VIDI,VICI] I CAME, I SAW, I CONQUERED, the generals will always propose—generically, with slight regard to context—that force, has been [Politically] decided as the [Only] is the solution to the problem. They are merely following the nature of their special gift, and in war the object is a rapid overwhelming victory and not a lengthy protracted drawn out affair. Our military Commanders are viewed as Sincere, and Courageous, having the virtue of wisdom, within a father’s strictness. Lee has got it backside backwards you can trust a General it is his nature, such as [General George Patton, another NATURAL-BORN warrior who was unable to see politics in anything but starkly military terms.] Starkly military terms boils down to they aren’t the ones doing the killing or being killed at best or bearing the wounds for life at worse.
[The Art of Statesmanship]
The Moral Law is the [1st] Law upon which a State must be based, Humanity and Justice and are the principles on which a State should be governed, and [1] one of the Arts of Statesmanship is responsible for the use of power, the making of the decision to wage an offensive war after having made deliberate, calculations to arrive at the decision that WAR is the [ONLY REASONABLE] alternative or that a political solution is never going to be achieved with the humanist understanding that they are not the ones that will be following the orders of the Generals and who will kill or be killed, based upon Reasoned Political Dictum.
[Empire a Cancer to the Global Community]
The American-Israeli Empire has broken the Moral Laws, and has forfeited the right to be called a government, the people are not in complete accord with the Media Messiah Imperial President, and are not willing to follow the Messiah any where for any reason. This State [The American-Israeli Empire] is out of touch, and not in harmony with its subjects, its governed, and the people are no longer bound by Moral Laws to obey this state in fact they are by moral law too oppose that state. The [DC/544] are the problem and not the solution, and are a threat to the Global Community of Nations, Economically, Militarily and its Global Environment, The Empire is a Cancer in the Global Community of Nations that must be removed for the heath of the Whole.
[The Imperial Media Messiah President Cobra]
The Media Messiah Imperial President has been called a Liar by one of the representatives of the People to his face openly in the halls of power, and openly laughed at to his face, in the councils of Economic Power. In a letter to the King of Holland [1807] Napoleon I, wrote A prince [Imperial Media Messiah President] who gets a reputation for good nature in the first year of his reign [First Term in Office], is laughed at in the second [Laughed out of office before a second term]. The Imperial Media Messiah is much like the Cobra on the back of the Fox, crossing a river to avoid death by fire, who bites the Fox, costing both their lives. Before their deaths the Fox asked the Cobra why have you bitten me and the Cobra replied [ITS MY NATURE]. The Media Messiah Imperial President is that Cobra.
HERCULE TRIATHLON SAVINIEN