2009-2010 NBA Predictions Thread
Tonight is the first night of thrilling professional basketball action; a welcome pick me up for put-upon Redskins fans eager to embrace the warm mediocrity the Wizards are likely to deliver. Time for some regular season predictions!
In the West, I think the Lakers will have the best record followed by (in order) Portland, San Antonio, Dallas, Denver, Utah, and Houston as the remaining playoff teams. In the East, it’s Cleveland then Orlando, Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, Washington, and Philadelphia. Lakers will almost certainly come out of the West and Cleveland will likely bring home LeBron’s first championship ring.
Looking at the ESPN “expert” predictions it strikes me as slightly insane that people are underestimating a team that features LeBron James and Shaq—these aren’t obscure, neglected, underrated guys. Last years Cavs had the best record in the league and they substantially upgraded their personnel during the offseason.
66 Responses to “2009-2010 NBA Predictions Thread”
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October 27th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Well, maybe it’s because it’s not clear they substantially upgraded. They’re going to miss Delonte West for some time and he was an important player on last year’s team. Meanwhile Shaq is old, kinda fat, and a ticking injury time bomb. That’s before we get to the fact that he has a shelf life in any town he’s in. The team will still be very good and perhaps even win the championship. But they’re definitely not in the same category 1-12 of the Lakers (god I hate typing that). Too often their offense devolves into “watch Lebron barrel to the basket and hope he scores”. Nothing they’ve done has seemed to change that dynamic.
October 27th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Boston third in the East? That’s pretty harsh, dude. Must be counting on injuries to hold them down.
Well, now that I think about it, that’s reasonable for a thirty-five and older team in the NBA.
October 27th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Only 7 teams are making the playoffs from the West this year? That’ll make the first round especially easy for the Lakers.
October 27th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
I have the Lakers winning it all but let’s not underestimate the Cavs’ additions. Anthony Parker is a VERY solid 2-guard; Jamario Moon is a plus-defender. They didn’t just add Shaq.
October 27th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
I think portland is too high. They lack the veteran leadership to finish 2nd in the west, even if the talent is there. I would move the Nuggets in front of Dallas as the nugs have had dallas’s number for the last couple of years.
October 27th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Fine – I’ll make predictions since you force me to do so, but this year I’m not going back and looking at them again at playoff time, like I did last year. That was embarrassing.
West playoff teams:
San Antonio
Lakers
Nuggets
Mavs
Portland
Utah
Clippers
Hornets
East:
Cavs
Magic
Celtics
Hawks
Miami
Indiana
Washington
Chicago
I note that I thought that the curse of the Clippers would hit Blake Griffin sometime, but I didn’t expect it before his first game. Nonetheless, the surprise of the league will be the Clippers. For the Finals, I like San Antonio and the Cavs.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
It’s scary that the Wizards are now likely the best of the three* major D.C. area sports teams.
*Hockey is still not a major sport in the D.C. area. Sorry, but. Nobody grew up here playing hockey on frozen ponds, and indoor rinks are a relatively recent addition to our civic landscape.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Gee, what a shocker. Boston-hater Matt Ygelsias doesn’t even have the Celtics making the conference finals. In realty, Rondo will step up his already spectacular game and lead Boston to an 18th banner.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
If the Celtics are healthy, I think they beat either Orlando or Cleveland. Their second unit sucked last year and Sheed and Marquis Daniels make their bench pretty solid. I’m interested in how Shaq holds up without the Phoenix athletic trainers.
If Artest doesn’t go off the rails, the Lakers win the West, although I think San Antonio is going to be a brutal out. Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson and a healthy Ginoboli upgrade them enough to seriously scare the shit out of L.A.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
I’ll go ahead and go with a Spurs-Magic final. I reserve the right to pick the winner of this when/if it happens.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Anthony Parker > Delonte West
Jamario Moon > potluck backup SF
Old Shaq + Old Z > Old Z + mystery meat
Cavs are loaded but Shaq will mess with their chemistry a bit. His game still has very strong points but it will take a bit to get the mix right so maybe it will hurt the Cavs record.
I have the Magic with the best record in the East. Turkoglu is overrated and they got more athletic with his replacements.
Spurs will be the best in the west. McDyess and Jefferson are both great additions and DeJuan Blair will be an energy big who lets McDyess and Duncan get plenty of rest in the regular season. Look for the Spurs to go up 15 on teams in the first 3 quarters, then rest their old players. They’re that good.
Spurs beat Magic in Finals.
In my heart, Let’s go Pistons!
October 27th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Kendrick Perkins receives votes for Defensive Player of the Year.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Not enough respect for Vince Carter people. If he gives a shit (and that’s a big if) they handle Cleveland again. But assuming L.A. stays healthy they get the trophy.
Lakers
Spurs
Mavs
Jazz
Hornets
Nuggets
Clippers
Suns
Cavs
Magic
Bulls
Celtics
Heat
Hawks
Pacers
Sixers
October 27th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
I’ll add that I also like the Magic alot. Vince is much better than Hedo, and they also got better by adding a real PF in Brandon Bass. I would absolutely love to see an Orlando-Cleveland Eastern Conference Finals – Shaq vs. Howard would be fun, and LeBron would have revenge on his mind. I just think that Cleveland improved slightly more than Orlando, and should also have home court (Rashard Lewis’s suspension may cost them a game or two in the standings).
October 27th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Different-for-the-sake-of-being-different people are almost always idiots.
Lakers/Cavs.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
“I have the Magic with the best record in the East. Turkoglu is overrated”
And Vince “I’ve done jack in my career without Jason Kidd around” Carter, isn’t?
The thing to watch in the East is that the Cavs got Shaq to deal with DHoward, yet it should weaken them against Boston by keeping a Celtic big in the lane on defense and allowing Pierce/Allen to pick-and-roll them to death.
Mike
October 27th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
I am a San Antonio native, and Manu and Tim are healthy, with Tim having dropped about 15 pounds and looking as good as he has in years. Simmons had them winning 68 games or something absurd like that – I don’t think it will happen simply because you will see guys getting nights off all season on back to backs.
This team has a chance to be the best Spurs team of them all. I think the Lakers came down some switching Artest for Ariza, and I think Portland is in the mix for the long haul. I will also add that I think New Orleans is in for a tough season with a fourth place finish in the Southwest behind the three Texas teams.
I like the Spurs over the Magic in the finals, but I really pay very little attention to the east until the conference finals or so.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
And Vince “I’ve done jack in my career without Jason Kidd around” Carter, isn’t?
I think Carter has managed to become somewhat underrated. Orlando will be very good. The recession has tended to make the best teams (LA, San Antonio, Orlando, Cleveland, Boston) better and the rest worse.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
It boggles my mind that Matt has never lived more than 15 minutes from a pro venue. Now, he doesn’t even have to take the Metro.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
What Lebron needs is a guy who can generate his own offense so that Lebron save himself for the later part of the game. At this point in his career, Shaq is a complimentary player – he can rebound, score off of backdoor passes and patrol the lane (somewhat), but he can’t score on his own, and you can’t run the offense through him. The days of simply passing the ball down low to Shaq are gone.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Lakers and Spurs will battle it out in the West. Veteran quality players (nothing like future hall of famers) will prevail. . . In the East the Cavaliers will not be denied. Anthony Parker will be more important to their success than Shaq! . . . The finals will see the coronation of LeBron as the new King of Hoops.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
Everyone is overrating the Bulls. Deng is the worst contract in the NBA.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
@Richard: Portland tied for the 2nd best record in the West last year, but were seeded 4th based on tie-breaker rules.
All the kids are a year older, Oden is expected to make a big leap, and they essentially swapped Sergio Rodriguez for Andre Miller. I would think they could at least repeat their 2nd-place tie from last year.
October 27th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
The NBA has a huge problem. Everyone knows before tonight’s game even starts who the NBA Champion is going to be. It has been that way more often than not ever since Detroit was winning back in the 80s.
But the problem is really deeper than knowing the eventual champ. We also know with a fair degree of certainty who the final 4 teams will be in the Conference finals. The only thing we don’t know is whether or not injuries or disinterest on the part of the players will impact the seedings in the playoffs. And even here we know that Shaq’s body and Vince Carter’s passion for playing D can’t go a full 82 games.
So you have a game that is boring to watch, with ultimate outcomes that are incredibly easy to predict, being played in half-empty arenas that have all the energy of 40 watt light bulbs. And it has been this way for nearly 2 decades.
David Stern better pray every night that some team that hasn’t won it recently – like Portland – gives LA a credible run for the Western Conference Finals. And credible means that each of the 7 games is an absolute war that could go either way.
(Baseball has the same problem, but the outcome isn’t nearly as pre-ordained as the NBA. The best team doesn’t always win in a 7 game series in baseball whereas in the NBA the best team almost always wins. The only exception being when Denver beat Seattle in the opening round back when Seattle was so good.)
My prediction: the teams with home court advantage in the conference finals, and the team with home court advantage in the league finals will win. That is likely to look like LA over San Antonio and the Celtics over Orlando. LA wins the whole thing – again. Yawn.
The only real mystery this year is if any NBA franchise goes bankrupt because fans realize that paying more than $20 a seat to watch, say, Memphis v Oklahoma City is a horrible waste of money.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Al, are those ordered as expected for both the regular season and the playoffs?
Reg West: LA, San Antonio, Portland, Nuggs, Mavs, Hornets, Phx, Utah.
Playoffs: LA over Portland in the conference finals.
Reg East: Cleveland, Orlando, Wizards, Celtics, Hawks, Miami, Indiana, Chicago.
Playoffs: Cle over Orlando.
LA wins it.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Ah, the annual predictions, just want to point out that I was right about the Lakers last season (and not alone either). On to this year (this is truly off-the-hip too because unlike past season, I haven’t followed the league much this offseason or preseason, but I do have a handle on the major roster changes):
WEST
1. Lakers (best in basketball, Artest fits like a glove)
2. San Antonio (Jefferson and Blair perfect pickups)
3. Portland (Oden will impact, right up there with the Spurs)
4. Denver (keep rolling, but losing dude off bench will hurt)
5. Dallas (Marion changes this team dramatically)
6. Utah (Utah is a possible sleeper, if healthy, deep and solid)
7. New Orleans (won’t fall off too much, too talented)
8. Phoenix (by end of season, if healthy, this team could surprise)
Bubble: Golden State, LA Clippers
Sleeper: Oklahoma City
Tanker: Houston
EAST
1. Orlando (this team even more talented, scary)
2. Boston (veteran squad keeps on rolling, young guys step up)
3. Cleveland (still elite, will challenge ORL and BOS)
4-8 anybody’s ballgame except Milwaukee, there’s just way too much uncertainty and parity between the rest of the teams.
Detroit could be solid again, or fade. Toronto could jump, or disappoint. D’Antoni could work magic, but it’s not really in the interest of the Knicks to be mediocre rather than just bad. Philly could still be a notch above, or fall into the pack. Washington could return to prominence, or merely struggle to separate. Charlotte is due for the playoffs, based upon Brown’s record, but this will take his best work. Atlanta has some elite talent, but I still question their depth and chemistry. Miami has Wade, Beasley and company, but is O’Neal gonna be an impact big again? Chicago has potential to be better than the pack, but same ol’ story, do they have any post offense? Indiana has a yeoman’s team and good balance, is that enough to be better than .500? New Jersey could really surprise people with Douglas-Roberts and Williams bringing young dynamism to replace Vince, but can they stay healthy (common refrain)?
Whatever happens with the pack in the East, it won’t matter, because it will boil down to Magic, Celtics and Cavs, and I’m predicting the Cavs get past the other two to fall to the Lakers in the Finals, only because I feel they’ll manage Shaq right and somehow get past both the Magic and Celtics, who I feel are better teams.
Could anyone challenge the Lakers? I’d say the team with the best shot would be the Magic.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
Hedo to VC is a huge upgrade, and the supporting cast got better too with the additions of Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson, Jason Williams and continuing maturation of Redick and Gortat.
Orlando over San Antone in the finals. Full order of finish:
Orlando
Boston
Cleveland
Atlanta
Chicago
Philadelphia
Miami
Washington
San Antonio
LA Lakers
Denver
Dallas
Portland
LA Clippers
Utah
Oklahoma City — there, I said it.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
The Celtics went pretty far last year even without KG.
Obviously they’re vulnerable to injury, but with the addition
of Rasheed Wallace and with Rondo gaining further experience
above and beyond his triple-double performances in the
playoffs, they should get by with fewer minutes for the
Big 3. Don’t know what will happen, but if you take last
year’s playoff team and add a healthy KG and Rasheed,
I think they’ve got a good chance against anyone.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
Al, are those ordered as expected for both the regular season and the playoffs?
Well ordered as expected for the regulat season. For playoffs, I would see LA-SA and Cle-Orl in the conference finals too. However, as I mentioned on one of the previous threads, I really wonder about Artest’s effect on the Lakers. They will be good again this year – especially if Bynum can stay healthy (although I think Bynum is somewhat overrated) – but I don’t see a huge upgrade since last year for the Lakers (unlike SA) and Kobe is a year older.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Reg East: Cleveland, Orlando, Wizards, Celtics,
Wizards finish higher than the Celtics? Really? Wow.
October 27th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
I believe the Celts will be fourth more than I believe the Wiz will be third. The Celts are old.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Spurs beat Cavs in seven.
October 27th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
As a policy wonk/Blazers fan, I appreciate yor patronage of both Portland’s home town team as well as our rich alternative transportation infrastructure. And you know, our beer’s the best, too. You oughta quit wasting your time in DC, submit to your obvious inclinations, and relocate to The City of Roses.
October 28th, 2009 at 5:05 am
@15 Different-for-the-sake-of-being-different people are almost always idiots.
In your case one can omit the almost.
October 28th, 2009 at 5:50 am
Shaq’s gonna clog LeBron’s lane. By time they figure out how to run an efficient offense, the Cav’s will be gone. Orlando is going to miss Hedo. It’s hard to replace a quarterback. Sheed will help Boston. He still has the ability to be a great defender, and Garnett will keep his ass in line. Garnett brooks no bullshit. Don’t forget, the Celts can, if they so chose, put five all-stars out there, EVERY NIGHT, to start the game -ALL of them unselfish.
Barring a BLACK SWAN EVENT (an injury) Celtics over the Lakers in a shocker. Four zip.
October 28th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Choska ##24: Really, you think that the existence of great teams is bad? You think it’s bad that the best NBA teams always win in the playoffs, rather than fluky Colorado Rockies ‘07 outcomes? You favor “Any Given Sunday”-style parity? Pfffft.
October 28th, 2009 at 10:23 am
I didn’t read every comment, but some people seem to be conflating MY’s predictions regarding the regular season with his predictions for the playoffs. I think the Celtics will finish first in the East in the regular season, but will likely be knocked out by the Cavs or Magic. On the other hand, the Spurs will play well enough to finish in the top 4 but will win the Western finals provided Manu stays healthy.
October 28th, 2009 at 10:28 am
Barring a BLACK SWAN EVENT (an injury) Celtics over the Lakers in a shocker. Four zip.
I think Boston easily has the deepest and most talented squad in the east. And they’ve easily improved more than any team in the association, talent-wise; it’s really not even close. I mean, you’re basically taking a team that went deep into the playoffs and adding Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels, and Kevin Freaking Garnett.
Sure, people have to stay healthy. But you can say that about everybody else, too. Duncan’s not getting any younger (he’s older than KG). And Shaq sure ain’t.
I like Boston to reach the finals again. And the Lakers also to reach the finals again. I’m not making any predictions about the outcome of that series. (I said “east” above when referring to depth; the Lakers are obviously pretty deep, too). But I do think there’s at least a 30% chance Artest will injure Kobe in a fight some point between now and June.
October 28th, 2009 at 11:15 am
Sheed is no longer an all-star, let’s get real, and the Lakers are the clear front-runners. Artest is actually a great fit for the Lakers, and the presence of childhood friend Lamar Odom along with Phil Jackson is enough to keep Ron in line, there won’t be any fist fights with Kobe. As for the rest of the Lakers, they’re ridiculously strong, while the Celtics are getting old. Andrew Bynum is a legit 20 and 10 guy, one of the best centers in the league, will be an all-star, and along with Kobe, Gasol and Ron give the Lakers four all-star caliber players in the starting lineup, with another all-star caliber player in Lamar Odom coming off the bench as 6th man.
Historically, the Lakers struggled against the Celtics because of Pierce, not KG or Allen, and Ron Artest is about the best guy you can assign to defend Paul Pierce that exists in the league. Ditto for Bron. So my contention that the team with the most legit shot of knocking off the Lakers, if they make the Finals out of the East (no easy task), is the Magic, due to their overall depth and talent, as well as size, but even that is an uphill battle, the Lakers are the clear favorites.
October 28th, 2009 at 11:36 am
I’m pretty sure you forgot the Hornets last year too!
People are sleeping on them–they had to trot out serious minutes for Hilton Armstrong, Melvin Ely, and Sean Marks in the middle last year (not to mention Chandler when he was barely able to get up and down the floor). Just replacing that is a real upgrade.
October 28th, 2009 at 11:39 am
“I mean, you’re basically taking a team that went deep into the playoffs and adding Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels, and Kevin Freaking Garnett.”
I agree 100%. Plus Rondo can be expected to keep getting
better. And from last night’s opener, it looks as
though the C’s are meshing nicely while the LeBron/Shaq Cavs
haven’t yet figured out what they should be doing.
“Sure, people have to stay healthy. But you can say that about everybody else, too. Duncan’s not getting any younger (he’s older than KG). And Shaq sure ain’t.”
Kobe is 31 now, but he came into the NBA in 96, just one
season after KG (and two years *before* Paul Pierce).
And as a player depending on speed and athleticism more
than size or strength, he might decline sooner rather
than later.
October 28th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
“I mean, you’re basically taking a team that went deep into the playoffs and adding Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels, and Kevin Freaking Garnett.
They won one round, right? Against the seventh seed? In seven games?
I could see them making the second round again.
October 28th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
children, i hope most of you refrain from betting the family money on your predictions. it’s defense that wins championships, and, assuming the celtics remain relatively healthy, they will have the best defense in the league. it will again be a historically great defense, likely better than that of their championship year, when, i remind you, the collective basketball acumen of this site failed to recognize that the celtics could stop anyone until it was far too late. going into the finals, the lakers were the nearly unanimous favorites both here and in the sporting press, but they were destroyed by the celtics in what was, to reference boston globe writer bob ryan’s memorable phrase, the first six-game sweep in the history of the nba.
why will their defense be even better this year than it was in that impressive year? the team is deeper. i loved the late addition of p.j. brown that year, but rasheed wallace is better and will have been with the team the entire year by the time the playoffs are here. who, coming off the lakers’ bench, is the equivalent of rasheed wallace? eddie house’s role is now well defined (doc rivers didn’t know how to use him during that championship year). and who would you prefer coming off your bench, marquis daniels or, say, luc walton? i could go on.
of course, you’ll tell me the celtics are old and therefore likely to succumb to injury—to which i will reply that injuries are quite unpredictable and happen to young and old alike. and that the celtics are not as old as you think. here, courtesy a poster on the celtics’ forum, is a comparison of the ages of the top eight players on the celtics, lakers, and cavaliers:
Celtics top eight guys:
Name – age – Seasons
Rasheed Wallace – 35 – 14
Ray Allen – 34 – 13
Kevin Garnett – 33 – 14
Paul Pierce – 32 – 11
Marquise Caniels – 28 – 6
Kendrick Perkins – 24 – 6
Rajon Rondo – 23 – 3
Glen Davis – 23 – 2
AVERAGE – 29 y/o – 8.625 seasons
LAKERS top 8 guys:
Name – age – seasons
Derek Fisher – 35 – 13
Kobe Bryant – 31 – 13
Lamar Odom – 30 – 10
Ron Artest – 30 – 10
Pau Gasol – 29 – 8
Luke Walton – 29 – 6
Jordan Farmar – 23 – 3
Andrew Bynum – 22 – 4
Average – 28.625 y/o – 8.375 seasons
CAVALIER’S top eight guys:
Name – age – seasons
Shaquille O’Neal – 37 – 17
Zydrunas Ilgauskas – 34 – 11
Anthony Parker – 34 – 11(since drafted by PHI in ‘98)
Jamario Moon – 29 – 7 (since entering draft in ‘01)
Mo Williams – 27 – 6
Anderson Varajao – 27 – 5
Delonte West – 26 – 5
LeBron James – 25 – 6
Average – 29.875 y/o – 8.5 seasons
If youth wins this year, it won’t be the lakers or the cavs (or the spurs) winning, it will be the magic. but i wouldn’t bet on youth; i’ll bet on defense and depth.
October 28th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
“I mean, you’re basically taking a team that went deep into the playoffs and adding Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels, and Kevin Freaking Garnett.”
I agree 100%. Plus Rondo can be expected to keep getting
better. And from last night’s opener, it looks as
though the C’s are meshing nicely while the LeBron/Shaq Cavs
haven’t yet figured out what they should be doing.
“Sure, people have to stay healthy. But you can say that about everybody else, too. Duncan’s not getting any younger (he’s older than KG). And Shaq sure ain’t.”
Kobe is 31 now, but he came into the NBA in 96, just one
season after KG (and two years *before* Paul Pierce).
And as a player depending on speed and athleticism more
than size or strength, he might decline sooner rather
than later.
It doesn’t matter how you look in Oct/Nov, it matters how you look in May/June. The Cavs have all year to figure out how to run their offense and defense with fat Shaq. Of course the Celtics have meshed better, it’s the same starting lineup they’ve had for 2 years and they can use Wallace the same way they used Big Baby, but with greater range. Shaq requires making way more changes.
Wallace was awful last year and his PER was the worst since 1997. Unlike KG, Kobe came off the bench his first couple of years and regularly started the same year that Pierce did. Though he came to the league before Pierce, miles in college are still miles. And have you watched his game, he’s much more of a low/high post player and perimeter shooter than he is a slasher. Slashing Kobe went out around the same time Rumsfeld did.
Barring a BLACK SWAN EVENT (an injury) Celtics over the Lakers in a shocker. Four zip.
When you have a team as old as the Celtics, injuries are white swan events. If the Celtics don’t have to deal with injuries from their major contributors, that’s the black swan event. Ray Allen can’t create his own shot, Wallace is allergic to the paint, Paul Pierce is aging fast and that’s not even counting KG who had major knee surgery. Age isn’t something you just get over like a flu or a sprained ankle. Age is a degenerative disease.
It’s going to be Lakers over Cavs in the finals. I like Orlando the best in the East, but the odds of a Finals rematch are pretty tiny, so I think Orlando loses to Cleveland rather than LA losing to SA.
October 28th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
they were destroyed by the celtics in what was, to reference boston globe writer bob ryan’s memorable phrase, the first six-game sweep in the history of the nba.
Ryan notwithstanding, it went six games, and the Lakers had just returned Bynum and Ariza. I still think it was pathetic that the Lakers lost as they did–that was a sad, sad Celts team, which no one much respected the next season (I think Ryan wrote about that, too)–but they weren’t at strength.
The Celts are massively overrated. There’s a reason lower echeleon teams–Hawks, Bulls, whoever’s up this year–get well against them.
October 28th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
who, coming off the lakers’ bench, is the equivalent of rasheed wallace? eddie house’s role is now well defined (doc rivers didn’t know how to use him during that championship year). and who would you prefer coming off your bench, marquis daniels or, say, luc walton?
LO >> Rasheed Wallace
Walton > Daniels
Over the past 3 years, Daniels has 2.9 total win shares, Walton has 9.0 (in about the same amount of minutes). In that same time period, Daniels’ offensive rating is 97 and his defensive one is 108, Walton’s are 107 and 108, respectively. Walton also has a better TS% and eFG%, better O&D rebound %, better steal % and assist %.
Also, using averages skews your view. They have a few very old players (4 older than Kobe) and a few very young players. The Lakers have 5 between 29 and 31, which is right smack dab in the middle of “prime years”.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
“I still think it was pathetic that the Lakers lost as they did–that was a sad, sad Celts team, which no one much respected the next season”
Whatever. I’ll be perfectly happy to support a sad, sad team
that no-one much respects that wins the championship and
then starts the following season 29-2.
Maybe what the C-bashers are missing – and what no-one much
expected when Ainge assembled Pierce/KG/Allen – was the
exceptional commitment to team defense. They don’t give you
so many highlight-reel plays, but they’re very effective:
if the opposition puts up a “pathetic” performance, it’s
usually because the defense has left them stifled and
frustrated.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
“It doesn’t matter how you look in Oct/Nov, it matters how you look in May/June. The Cavs have all year to figure out how to run their offense and defense with fat Shaq.”
And also figuring out how to run it when the 325lb 37-year-old
Shaq gets injured and is either out completely, or loses
his mobility. I’m not at all sure that the “how you look
in May/June” criterion is favorable for the Cavs.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
if the opposition puts up a “pathetic” performance, it’s
usually because the defense has left them stifled and
frustrated.
Or two of five probable starters have just come back from injury.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
As Dwyer has been pointing out relentlessly on Ball Don’t Lie, Shaq’s only effective game at this stage is lane-hogging for putbacks & rebounds. This is anathema to LeBron’s lane-storming, drive-and-kick game. It’s exactly why Shaq’s tenure with the Suns was a disaster, only worse, because the Cavs don’t have the outside shooting the Suns had.
Hedo was the ball distributor that made the Magic’s offense work. Without him there’ll be a lot of standing around and watching Carter or Lewis play 1-on-5. neither of them is a good enough ballhandler to be dishing to Howard where he needs it. Nelson is embarrassingly overrated and will have an off-year.
Celts outta the east. A motivated Sheed is a better acquisition than either Shaq or Vince.
Artest will do to the Lakers’ offense what Shaq will do to Cleveland’s. Shoulda stuck with Ariza. Kobe will deck RonRon in the face at some point for ballhogging/refusing to understand the triangle/jacking bad shots/pouting when benched for Odom/Making too many appearances on TMZ.
Richard Jefferson is a much better defender than we realize, plus plenty else to like about the Spurs. Spurs over Celts in the finals.
Oh, and @24: Having good teams remain good, and having a championship be something that has to be earned over years of smart franchise-building (basketball) is a more entertaining & meaningful drama than 8 months of an owner dumping a stupid amount of money on a team only to let all the players walk after you’ve won the championship, and stinking it up the next year (baseball & football, all too often). That’s why we like it. You don’t. Cool.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
In other words, what’s to like about the better team losing a playoff series, unless I’m a network exec? Why do I want to watch an expansion team with a Johnny-come-lately fan base like the Marlins, Rockies, Rays, Ravens, Titans, or Panthers win or play for a title? Parity is only exciting if you have ADD, and reeks of cheapness.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
The “Artest will ruin the Lakers offense” meme is based more on wishful thinking than on fact. With Artest, Houston made it out of the first round for the first time since the Dream laced them up and took the eventual champions to 7 games (something no other team did). Not to mention, with a clear alpha, beta and gamma dogs (plus Phil), there are enough strong personalities to keep Artest in line. Also, it’s amusing that Artest is a bad cookie, but Rasheed Wallace’s hothead tendencies are ignored. If Phil could manage Rodman for 3 rings and the Shaq and Kobe egos for 3 more, he’ll have no problem with Artest. Plus, in the preseason, he has shown the ability to play within the triangle and know his role.
Amazing how Ariza was considered to be overrated and a weak spot for the Lakers throughout the regular season, but a month and a half of shooting 3s 20 percentage points higher than his career numbers turns him into Bob Horry.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
and how did those two probable starters (bynum & ariza) fare against the celtics in the regular season two years ago? (hint: not spectacularly). and do you remember that kendrick perkins, who was (and remains) an important cog in the celtic’s defense, was injured for a significant number of games in the finals? and what are you saying about the likelihood of injury when you reference the injuries of two young players? why is it assumed that garnett will spend more games on the disabled list this year than bynum? why is it assumed that ray allen will fall apart? what will happen to the lakers if derek fisher suddenly cannot move at all? rasheed wallace doesn’t have to be an all-star: all he has to do is grab a few rebounds and draw the opposing big man away from the basket. all we have now are early returns, but it seems he can do just that.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
? and what are you saying about the likelihood of injury when you reference the injuries of two young players?
I’m not saying anything at all. I want the Celts to stay healthy. It’ll make it all the more delicious when they get bounced in the second round. For the second straight year.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
I would say Bynum is an injury risk. However, young players (or rather young people in general) recover from injuries faster and more easily than older players. Heck, KG was supposed to be out only a few weeks, then was going to be back for the playoffs and then needed major knee surgery. Bynum came back, albeit in a limited manner. And the Lakers proved that they don’t need Bynum to win. If Bynum is healthy all year, that essentially counts as a second new player for them.
Also, not fair to compare the Lakers w/ Ariza and Bynum but sans Gasol. A better comparison is the two regular season games last year (one was minus Bynum). KG was in both of them and the Lakers dispatched the Celtics in both of them.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
“Ray Allen can’t create his own shot, Wallace is allergic to the paint, Paul Pierce is aging fast and that’s not even counting KG who had major knee surgery”
1) On a team with KG, Pierce, and an excellent distributor
like Rondo, Allen doesn’t need to create his own shot
to be effective.
2) I don’t see much evidence that Pierce is aging fast: what
I see is that he’s inconsistent. When he’s on he’s terrific,
when he’s off he’s almost invisible. He’s always been
that way, and it got him a championship and a Finals MVP
and pretty decent stats.
3) KG’s knee surgery – removal of bone spurs – isn’t
particularly “major”. AFAIK there’s no big structural
damage, just a nagging painful condition. It’s very
possible that he’ll be 100% and have no further
problems with it.
4) You might be right about Wallace at the offensive end,
but he’s a monster defensively and will allow the C’s
to rest Garnett without much dropoff in defense.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
I would say Bynum is an injury risk.
Gee, you think?
I want the Celts to stay healthy. It’ll make it all the more delicious when they get bounced in the second round. For the second straight year.
If a second round bouncing is what you’re after, you most definitely don’t want a healthy Celtics squad. Because a healthy Celtics squad — meaning a Celtics squad with Kevin Garnett — in other words the defending championship team that went 29-3 — would have easily won the conference. And destroyed Los Angeles. For the second straight year.
By the way, Sheed’s a hot-head, but he’s been disciplined enough over the years to be a winner. Artest has been an out and out psychopath. There’s no comparison.
October 28th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Based on last night, it looks like the Celtics’ bench is a whole lot deeper than the Cavs’ – and that was with Glenn Davis out.
October 28th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Bottom line, Lakers lost to the Celtics in the Finals mainly because of Paul Pierce (and blowing a 25-point lead at home in Game 4). The Lakers didn’t have anybody who could really match up with Pierce, now they have Ron Artest, the most ideal defender to put on Pierce in the league.
Like I said earlier, ditto Bron, if you could pick anyone in the league to match up defensively with Bron, it would be Ron Artest.
So, the Lakers have the best man defender in the league against the two guys who kill them the most, whose presence frees up Kobe Bryant to terrorize the passing lanes and/or lock down the next best wing player. Then you toss in two 7-footers and the Lakers defense will be lockdown come postseason, and we’re not even considering the best overall defender on the team for the Lakers last season, Lamar Odom.
October 28th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
“So, the Lakers have the best man defender in the league against the two guys who kill them the most”
Uh, Artest hasn’t been the best man defender in the league for at least 3 seasons and probably more.
And you Laker dittohead can make all the excuses you want about losing to the Cs, but Jordan was NEVER beaten like that in any playoff series he ever had with the Bulls.
Mike
October 28th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
I don’t see the cause for name-calling here, or bringing up Michael Jordan (wtf?), and I didn’t say that Artest is the best man defender in the league (without qualification), I said he’s the best man defender in the league against Bron and Pierce, who present unique challenges with their size, and who have hurt the Lakers in the past few seasons.
October 28th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
The Lakers, if you look at them in a 1-12 way, shoulda won the title against the Celts too. They didn’t bc BBall isn’t a fantasy league. They matched up well against Orlando, period. Bynum is Oden on a better team, Artest doesn’t listen to coaches and is often a victim of thinking the media is laughing with him not at him, Odom is STILL underrated but doesn’t help you win unless he’s the best player on the floor, and Pau has a lot of heart but talentwise can’t hold a candle to Garnett, Duncan, or Howard. Ariza was better cos he bro’d with the bench and kept them involved. w/o him the bench is gonna be bored and uninterested in hearing Kobe holler at them. See every year before last.
October 28th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
btw Matt, the Blazers are gonna be better than the Spurs? Aren’t you just Joe Leibermanning us?
October 28th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
Philly last? Where exactly did we lose any important piece from a playoff team last year? Wizards homer. They will be done by the all star break.
October 28th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
East Coast bias much?
Lakers are the clear favorite to win the title, although the Celtics will give them hell in the NBA Finals and the match-ups will be quite entertaining.
By the way, am I the only one who used to love KG until he became a complete douche bag in Boston?
Ron Ron is absolutely the best person in the league to guard Paul Pierce in a playoff series and for those that think he will ruin the Lakers chemistry………….gl with that wishful thinking.
October 29th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
Philly last? Where exactly did we lose any important piece from a playoff team last year?
Andre Miller wasn’t important?