Sudan’s Coming Civil War
Omar al-Bashir (wikimedia)
For many years, Sudan had a vicious civil war between the northern-dominated central government and rebel movements based in the south. More recently the situation has calmed down thanks to peace agreements that, among other things, promise a referendum on independence. But as John Norris writes, there’s likely to be serious trouble ahead in the near future:
In 2011, Sudan is scheduled to hold a referendum that will allow South Sudan to vote on severing its ties with the North and declaring independence. Almost every observer has concluded that if this referendum happens, the South will vote overwhelmingly for independence, sundering in half the largest country in Africa (that’s why the road ahead could not be clearer). But it’s the actions taken now, by the Barack Obama administration, that may well determine if Sudan’s breakup occurs peacefully or is steeped in blood and a return to full-blown civil war.
The early signs are discouraging. There has been a sharp uptick in violent clashes in South Sudan of the same sort that have already killed hundreds this year. So dramatic is the escalation that the United Nations recently noted that the violence there is now worse than that in Darfur. There have been abundant allegations that the Sudanese government, headed by President Omar Hassan al-Bashir (who is still wanted on outstanding war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court), has been rapidly rearming proxy militias in the South to do Khartoum’s bidding. The use of proxy militias has long been a favorite tactic of the ruling party — both in Darfur and South Sudan. Officials from the South accuse Khartoum of distributing “thousands” of AK-47s in recent months. The U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in Sudan has also noted the presence of more modern and powerful weaponry in recent clashes than has traditionally been the case.
The notorious Lord’s Resistance Army from Uganda has also stepped up its level of activity in southern Sudan. It would make a lot more sense for the international community to try to intercede with the Sudanese government now before any gigantic humanitarian catastrophe emerges rather than doing the normal thing and ignoring a basically back-burner situation until calamity is already under way and extremely difficult to stop.
20 Responses to “Sudan’s Coming Civil War”
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September 2nd, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Yeah, it might be nice to be proactive and defuse the conflict now. But the international community has never, ever, done anything to stop a genocide before it’s nearly complete. So, genocide it will be. Sudan just doesn’t have enough oil to warrant anyone’s attention.
September 2nd, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Heck, look at Iraq and the Kurds. There was even oil involved.
September 2nd, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Thanks for bringing attention to this inevitable crisis, but there are two key things to add. First, all of Sudan’s oil is in Southern Sudan. This is why Khartoum would never allow Southern Sudan to secede, and will certainly go to war regardless of Obama’s actions. No amount of trade sanctions or diplomatic pressure would put more hurt on Khartoum than what they’d gain by keeping the oil. The worst you could do to them is permanently blockade Port Sudan and stop the export of oil forever, but that’s no worse than what they’d get if they allowed the south to secede.
The second thing is China, which is purchasing most of Sudan’s oil and probably has no interest in disturbing the status quo. Of all world powers they have the greatest interest in Sudan, so their actions, rather than Obama’s, are what is likely to determine the course of events there.
So really, the actions taken now by the Barack Obama administration almost certainly will have no effect whatsoever on whether “Sudan’s breakup occurs peacefully or is steeped in blood and a return to full-blown civil war.” Just because you’re the world’s most powerful person sadly doesn’t mean you can prevent every war.
September 2nd, 2009 at 4:48 pm
What an odd post. Matthew thinks that the international community shouldn’t intercede in Somalia – instead Matthew thinks everyone ought to just encourage the Islamists to win the civil war there so as to end the violence. OTOH, Matthew think the international community ought to intercede in Sudan. Utter schizophrenia, unless when Matthew says “intercede with the Sudanese government now” he means help the Sudanese government win the civil war, thus ending the violence.
September 2nd, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Prop Joe-looking motherfucker.
September 2nd, 2009 at 5:16 pm
So, genocide it will be. Sudan just doesn’t have enough oil to warrant anyone’s attention.
I don’t think anyone has any money to intercede in Sudan at this point. the U.S. is stretched thin in Middle East and Central Asia, Europe is trying to deal with its own problems, and so on.
Sudan comes really, really, really low on that to-do list.
September 2nd, 2009 at 5:42 pm
“I don’t think anyone has any money to intercede in Sudan at this point.”
Well, China does, and they’re the only country that really has a stake in Sudan. Sudan doesn’t have a whole lot of oil, but China has pretty much stuck to making deals where there isn’t much other competition. I’m not sure if China really has the military capacity to project power that far from home. But they’ve been building up their Navy, so who knows? They could easily arm the North and push them to a victory. And they can block any complaints coming from the Security Council The Chinese would very much like one entity to control the oil fields, the pipeline, and the port.
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Come on Matt, don’t fall into the, “something must be done,” trap. What do you think we should do? There is already significant aid efforts, diplomatic efforts, and mediation efforts going on to address Sudan’s various conflicts. The streets of Sudan are clogged with white SUVs from every international agency imaginable. Meanwhile the current sanctions are primarily hurting Sudanese citizens without changing the behavior of Sudan’s government. So what is it? More of what we’re doing? Something different?
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:25 pm
I know a south sudenese studying at medical school here, he’s very pro-war with the north and predicts a war with a year. He seems to think that Ethiopia will somehow get mixed up into it also. But I don’t think that’s realistic. He has a great hatred of Muslims. But if I were from South Sudan, I probably would too.
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Ehthiopia might very well fight. They are being demograph’d right out of existence by the Muslims. Hell the best bet for them (as they see it) might be to try and join it to Ethiopia to prevent the Muslims from being a majority.
September 2nd, 2009 at 7:38 pm
I’m probably going to be visiting southern Sudan within the next year. My best friend just moved there to take a job with a relief organization near the Ugandan border.
Apparently it’s quite a dangerous area, as the Lord’s Resistance Army is very active there. Then again, a life lived without danger is not much of a life.
Any suggestions as to things I should do or see while there?
September 2nd, 2009 at 8:00 pm
“Any suggestions as to things I should do or see while there?”
No, but wear the strongest insect repellent available at all times. And don’t even think about drinking the water. Don’t swim in any stream or pond. Brush your teeth with vodka. And if you ever thought about taking up drinking, that would be the time to do it. Alcohol kills most waterborne diseases, so I’d recommend a few shots of whiskey with every meal. Every traveler says this: “It’s a brave man who farts in Africa.” And of all of Africa, Sudan is pretty much the worst for disease. It’s a lot worse than India, and India is really bad.
September 2nd, 2009 at 8:02 pm
I’ll just take this opportunity to recommend Dave Egger’s wonderful semi-fictional biography, “What is the What”.
September 2nd, 2009 at 8:10 pm
Re: And of all of Africa, Sudan is pretty much the worst for disease.
I’ve lived in Africa before, though the region where I was wasn’t too bad for disease. (We did have about 12 people a year die of bubonic plague though…yep, the Black Death).
Sudan sounds a h*ll of a lot worse then where I was. Apparently there used to be some speculation that AIDS originated there (no longer believed, I think).
They are known to have Ebola too, and something called Green Monkey Disease which sounds pretty horrible.
September 2nd, 2009 at 8:16 pm
“(We did have about 12 people a year die of bubonic plague though…yep, the Black Death)”
Bubonic plague never scared me. But I’m of European descent, so I’m probably immune. We have it here in Colorado, so don’t feed the marmots.
Oh, and Sudan still has Guinea Worms. It’s not fatal, but it is really nasty.
September 2nd, 2009 at 9:04 pm
Learn to duck or run away real fast. The LRA makes the car barbarians from The Road Warrior look like angels. Good luck on the trip.
September 3rd, 2009 at 10:07 am
But the international community has never, ever, done anything to stop a genocide before it’s nearly complete. So, genocide it will be.
Oh please, the Sudanese government is too incompetent and disorganized to genocide anybody. There’ll almost certainly be a civil war, but it will be as ineptly and haphazardly prosecuted as the couple dozen previous Sudanese “genocides” people have warned about.
September 3rd, 2009 at 11:39 pm
Sudan is in a really terrible way. Now that Bashir’s got oil revenues flowing in, he will be hard to remove, not that any outside power has the will to do so. And even if he’s gone, whatever replaces him won’t be a hell of a lot better.
I hope the south is able to break away from this truly dysfunctional state. I only wish the rest of the country could do the same.
September 4th, 2009 at 8:52 am
Well, my best friend just told me over email that he “heard his first land mine explode last night, and just got diagnosed with malaria”. Charming.
Sudan sounds like a pretty disturbing place.
DaveNYC, I did know about the Lord’s Resistance Army. They are apparently Christian fundamentalists, though that doesn’t stop them from carrying out massacres in churches. I guess it’s Christianity’s answer to the Taliban.
September 4th, 2009 at 8:53 am
Re: We have it here in Colorado, so don’t feed the marmots.
Funny, I’m going to be in Colorado for a meeting later this month. I will try not to feed the marmots.