Rubio to Barcelona
DKV Joventut’s teen sensation Ricky Rubio will be traded to FC Barcelona rather than joining the Minnesota Timberwolves as the fifth pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. This is mostly being spun as a bad thing for the ‘wolves and possibly even a tactical error by Minnesota. One factor in Rubio’s decision to stay in Spain is that the bill for buying out his contract with Joventut would have been prohibitively expensive. Thus Bill Simmons speculates that Rubio would have paid for the buyout to join a bigger market team where he could have earned more endorsement bucks and thus afforded the buyout: “Rubio needed big market endorsement $$$ to buy out other deal. LA-NY-Chi-Hou-etc. Minny couldn’t work. Kahn messed up. Shoulda flipped him.”
I think this whole line of thought is a mistake. Minnesota benefits from Rubio’s decisions. In general, basketball players are considerably better at 20 than at 18. Thus, in general you’d rather draft 20 year-old players rather than 18 year-old players. The problem, however, is that players with obvious promise enter the draft at 18 so unless you want to pass up on tons of talented guys, you often need to draft teenagers. Under the circumstances, for your teen draft pick to decide he wants to spend two years getting bigger and stronger while honing his skills in one of the world’s top leagues is a good thing. Maybe over the next two seasons Rubio will prove to be a bust, in which case no loss for Minnesota. Or maybe he’ll play well, in which case he’ll come to Minnesota in 2011, and the Timberwolves will get to have the 20, 21, and 22 year-old versions of Rubio on their roster for the rookie salary scale.
43 Responses to “Rubio to Barcelona”
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September 1st, 2009 at 4:01 pm
This is the dumbest most over thought out post ever.
You’d rather have rubio honing his skills in THE BEST league as opposed to “one of the best.”
September 1st, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Maybe. But then you need to apply a pretty steep discount
rate to the value of athletic performances far in the future:
many athletes get hurt.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:11 pm
But Minnesota is meanwhile out a 5th overall draft pick that could have actually helped the team.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Basketball players also develop more quickly by playing more minutes against higher-level competition. A guy who plays in college or in the Euroleague isn’t going to learn as much or be pushed as much as guy who spends the same amount of time on an NBA squad.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:12 pm
A smart basketball post by Matt Yglesias? Will the wonders never cease?
Also remember that Minny is in serious payroll slashing mode. So they get the asset of a 5th pick without any of the liability of a guaranteed salary. Stroke of genius if you ask me.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:12 pm
I don’t think Matt addressed that issue. He is merely pointing that when Rubio decides to enter the NBA, Minnesota will have the rights to an asset that may well have increased in value, at a reduced price.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:31 pm
And it’s not like Minnesota is going to be making any serious playoff runs for the next few years. But by 2011, they may be ready to take on the big boys, and if they can have an experienced guard on the cheap then, well, that’s a nice advantage to have.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:36 pm
I’m with bperk, as a good economist, you have to at least address the opportunity cost of giving up your 1st pick (5th overall) of 2009 for a player who doesn’t play until 2011, at the earliest. How about the 2 years Golden State will get out of Stephen Curry (#7 overall) during that time? Or any of the other players drafted after Rubio? Is his potential so much higher that he’s worth that level of risk? We’ll see…..
September 1st, 2009 at 4:37 pm
This post sounds right to me. Will Rubio learn more by playing in Barca than in Minny? I don’t know, but think that it is probably – he will be the starter in Barca (I assume), but would be behind Flynn here.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:39 pm
What bperk and cdg are missing is that Minny will only have Rubio for 5 years either way. They may be missing out on 2009 Rubio and 2010 Rubio, but in return they get 2014 Rubio and 2015 Rubio, both at rookie scale wages.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Maybe. Or Minnesota saves value now in rookie salary (which is relatively cheap), delays/reduces the development of Ricky Rubio and ends up with rights to a guy who isn’t as good as he could be (and then they have to renegotiate his contract after a year of NBA play).
September 1st, 2009 at 4:43 pm
FC Barcelona? Doesn’t FC mean Football Club? (Or Club Futbol or whatever in Spanish?) I know European teams are really giant amorphous sporting organizations, like if the LA Lakers also fielded football, baseball, and hockey teams and they were all called the Lakers, but I’m surprised the whole enchilada is named FC.
Aren’t they membership organizations too? Like, if I lived in Barcelona I could pay a membership fee and join FC Barcelona? In that case do they serve other functions as well for non-athlete members? (i.e. high-end gym where businessmen can make deals over cognac after meeting up on the treadmills.) Wierd.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:47 pm
@Al RE: playing time
In the Spanish ACB league there’s only 34 games per season and the games are only 40 minutes long. If Rubio played 15 minutes a game with the Timberwolves, he’d rack up more minutes than if he played 30 minutes a game (a lot for a Euro player) for Barca. He’d also probably lift a couple more weights, get more acclimated to the physical NBA play and be more comfortable with the NBA 3.
September 1st, 2009 at 5:04 pm
True but you assume that he would get the same amount of playing time in the NBA than he will in Euroleague and that is probably not the case. I think this is good if not, not bad news for Minn. They get an older more experienced player at the same price and its not like Rubio was going to take them to the playoffs this year in a perennially stacked West. Now if he refuses to come to Minn after his contract is up then the sky is falling.
September 1st, 2009 at 5:04 pm
When you did a post a while back on great things about America its strange that you didn’t meantion basketball.
September 1st, 2009 at 5:05 pm
This is good for Minn. They get to rack up another year or two of being crappy to get more good draft picks. They can target the best free agent available in 2011 now, and start trading for expiring contracts.
That would work out, unless 2011 is the collective bargaining year.
September 1st, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Good point
September 1st, 2009 at 5:21 pm
ben,
In Europe, they play three different competitions. Barca will play in the ACB against other teams from Spain. It should also play in the Copa del Rey (kind of like an NCAA tournament for Spanish teams). And it will also play in the Euroleague competition against other teams from Europe.
September 1st, 2009 at 5:24 pm
The only Barcelona FC that matters is the one just acquired and is now playing Zlatan Ibrahimovich. Come on Matt, go Euro all the way and start following football (and call it “football”!).
September 1st, 2009 at 5:47 pm
This is not better than Rubio coming over now, but it still does not make the pick bad, or the situation a disaster. It is still a really solid investment, especially given the weak draft.
I really don’t understand people knocking Kahn. Knowing everything I know now, if I could go back in time as Kahn I would STILL take Rubio. His value is still high, and it will only get higher.
Minnesota can trade his rights any time over the next 2+ years. In other words, they bought low and the may have the opportunity to sell high (a top 3 pick in a better draft? A young-ish All-star at a position of need?) and the luxury of being able to wait. They are already over stuffed with youngsters and wouldn’t be getting in the playoffs with Rubio next year anyway.
September 1st, 2009 at 5:51 pm
spokeytown @ 12:
Yes to everything you said. In fact, you can sign up for membership online. (I don’t know what good it would do you if you’re not local, but whatever.)
AFAIK, there is one official penya (fan club) in the US, in New York
September 1st, 2009 at 5:57 pm
FC Barcelona? Doesn’t FC mean Football Club? (Or Club Futbol or whatever in Spanish?) I know European teams are really giant amorphous sporting organizations, like if the LA Lakers also fielded football, baseball, and hockey teams and they were all called the Lakers, but I’m surprised the whole enchilada is named FC.
Yes, it’s weird. But that’s what it’s called.
September 1st, 2009 at 6:04 pm
Aren’t they membership organizations too? Like, if I lived in Barcelona I could pay a membership fee and join FC Barcelona?
You can pay the EUR 77 a year if you live in Biloxi. You get priority access and discounts on all of the sporting club’s tickets, though with 170,000-odd members, that’s no guarantee of a seat at the Camp Nou for the Real Madrid game.
September 1st, 2009 at 6:05 pm
Um, if all this is true, and Minnesota would or should prefer for Rubio to spend the next two years in Spain, then why did Kahn waste so much time negotiating with Rubio, flying to Europe and otherwise trying pretty damn hard to get him to join the team this year?
September 1st, 2009 at 6:09 pm
there’s just enough of an opening for me to further the soccer-jacking of the thread by noting, for those unfamiliar with spanish soccer, that barcelona and real madrid are the red sox and yankees of spanish soccer, only there’s this:
franco was a real madrid supporter.
and fascist thugs murdered the left-wing president of barcelona some time during the spanish civil war.
now, i don’t go so far as to say that al is a fascist, but still, it has always amazed me that al supports the lefty team of this two-some….
September 1st, 2009 at 6:17 pm
I think people are forgetting that Minnesota will actually have to play some games over the next two years and by trading Foye and Miller’s expiring contract away for essentially nothing, Kahn has largely ensured the team is going to suck even worse than it did last year. If Flynn is a bust, they could suck a lot worse. How much is it going to hurt the franchise, financially and team-wise, to be playing to 1/2 or 3/4s empty arenas over the next two seasons? What if Al Jefferson decides he doesn’t want to waste two more years of his career, and then however many more after that for Rubio to fully develop, and starts demanding a trade?
The Rubio pick would have been a great move in a fantasy league. In the real world, it’s an epic fail.
Mike
September 1st, 2009 at 6:19 pm
now, i don’t go so far as to say that al is a fascist, but still, it has always amazed me that al supports the lefty team of this two-some….
I prefer not to mix politics and sports. Speaking of Barca – I saw that their opening game of La Liga was televised on ESPN yesterday. Stupid work prevented me from watching. But I am excited that ESPN is televising La Liga and EPL matches this year (even if they lost Champions League). But it looked like they had a nice comfortable win, even without Messi, Iniesta and Henry.
September 1st, 2009 at 6:26 pm
ESPN is picking up some soccer because of some setanta problems that i’ve seen referenced in the ny times but don’t really understand; my soccer local is still pulling in matches broadcast by setanta over satellite, so it’s not that they are out of business.
as long as messi, iniesta, and xavi play most of the matches, fc barcelona should do just fine in its primary line of buiness; there are certainly fewer questions about barca than about any of the other big-name teams in european soccer this year.
September 1st, 2009 at 6:28 pm
Al
I saw when I was in England that ESPN was doing EPL, but I haven’t seen it on ESPN 360. Will it be on? (That’s how I watch ESPN.)
I’d take EPL and La Liga over UCL anyday.
September 1st, 2009 at 6:33 pm
In fact, you can sign up for membership online. (I don’t know what good it would do you if you’re not local, but whatever.)
My understanding is that FC Barcelona is owned by its club members – somewhat like the Green Bay Packers. So, presumably for your 77Eur membership fee, you get some vote for the President or Board of Directors. Again, though, with 170,000 members, that vote isn’t going to be very decisive.
September 1st, 2009 at 6:55 pm
it’s insane to believe jonny flynn would play ahead of rubio.
September 1st, 2009 at 7:04 pm
Bill Simmons isn’t exactly the most unbiased source on the T-Wolves.
September 1st, 2009 at 7:07 pm
So, presumably for your 77Eur membership fee, you get some vote for the President or Board of Directors.
Every member gets a vote for the club president every four years. There’s also the annual Delegates’ Assembly (the Barça AGM) where around 400 members are chosen for two-year periods, (basically at random, but using an age quota to ensure representation of all generations of senior members) who then vote to approve the club budget, the appointment of directors, etc. That tends to be a bit of a rubber-stamp in practice, but it’s a reminder of who’s in charge. I doubt, though, that if you are in Biloxi, you’d get your travel expenses reimbursed if the computer threw up your name.
September 1st, 2009 at 7:36 pm
@Al RE: PT
Fair enough. He’d probably get more playing time in Spain than in the States (if he was starting in Spain but a reserve player in the NBA). If he came to the states, though, he’d probably get a good chance at playing significant minutes (unless Flynn ended up taking the starting job away from him).
I think the bigger concern is one I raised a little later: he’s going play the next two years in Europe instead of the NBA. He’s not going to have a weight-training regimen like he would over here. The defensive rules and shape of the court are completely different. He’s not going to be shooting NBA 3pts and he needs that as part of his arsenal to succeed in the NBA. He’s going to be playing against softer, less physical competition that won’t push him as hard as the NBA players. Have you seen the list of the All-Euroleague teams going back the last 10 years or so? Only a handful of those guys made it in the NBA.
Bottom line: If you want to play in the NBA, the best preparation is playing in the NBA. Playing under Euro rules against Euro competition with Euro preparation is just going to result in Rubio being more ready for international play and less ready for NBA play.
September 1st, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Matt,
You make some valid points in the abstract, but as a whole your dead wrong. As mentioned, if this was the plan Kahn wouldn’t have been jetting to Spain to sign the kid. Also, Kahn may not even be around to see Rubio in a Wolves uniform by the time he plays. Another point, is that he has more leverage than ever. What’s to stop him from pulling the same thing in 2 years, so that the Wolves are forced to either trade him or allow this asset to continue decreasing in value. And, the Wolves aren’t exactly rolling in money as Simmons has mentioned. You don’t think that wasting a pick that could have produced actual butts in the seats isn’t part of the “value” equation. I think that there are just too many ways that this blows up in Kahn’s face.
September 1st, 2009 at 8:30 pm
I saw that their opening game of La Liga was televised on ESPN yesterday.
In razor-sharp HD. Also.
But it looked like they had a nice comfortable win,….
Gijon was a relegation struggler last season, and they aren’t any better now.
Ibra scored his first La Liga goal, on a nice diving header.
September 1st, 2009 at 8:39 pm
So do members/shareholders/whatever of FC Barcelona join up so they can cast a vote at some ceremonial club functions, and they do this out of team enthusiasm and so they can get a discount on tickets or something? My (sketchy) understanding is that in addition to being an organization that fields professional teams in various sports, European sports clubs are traditional elite hangouts where businessmen, politicians, royalty play squash, smoke stogies, and make corrupt deals. Sort of like if the Bohemian Club or the Yale Club fielded teams in the NFL and NBA.
September 1st, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Al Jefferson is reading this post right now and thinking, “So we traded two of our better perimeter players so that we could have Ricky Rubio in two years. Then we’ll have to trade this year’s other lottery pick to make way for Rubio. Awesome.”
At least they’ll be getting some more lottery picks over the next two years.
Minnesota didn’t have a lot of great options in the draft (except NOT doing a trade with Washington and simply drafting Stephen Curry), but this now stinks in about three different ways.
September 1st, 2009 at 9:39 pm
I heart Jonny Flynn
September 1st, 2009 at 10:07 pm
He’ll team up well with Messi at midfield. There is only one Barcalona.
September 2nd, 2009 at 12:17 am
If Minnesota continues to be awful and Rubio does eventually show up as more of a finished product, it could be a repeat of the situation that the Spurs faced when they drafted David Robinson and then had to wait on him for 2 years. In the meantime, they got another high lottery pick, Sean Elliott. That team turned it around overnight.
September 2nd, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Does anyone think that maybe an 18-year old guy would prefer to spend the next 2 years in sunny, exciting Barcelona, rather than be shipped off to cold and gray Minnesota?
Don’t human interests figure into this at all?
I’m just saying. And obviously, I’m not a big sports guy, otherwise I would probably suggest, like everyone else, that the decision is 100% basketball-based.
September 2nd, 2009 at 7:28 pm
In 1987 I didn’t hear a lot of people complaining about the Spurs taking David Robinson #1 even though they had to wait 2 years for him to play (and he didn’t play any ball during that time). Seemed to work out for San Antonio ok.
I’m sure there *might* have been someone arguing that Armon Gilliam or Dennis Hopson or Reggie Williams would have provided *immediate* help. I’ll wait while you look up their careers…
I don’t see who they could have picked that would have made any bit of difference to the win or attendance totals. Curry, maybe. But half of these #1 picks are going to be on their way out of the league by 2011 anyway. If Rubio does turn out to be a bust in the next 2 years, at least the Wolves won’t be paying him to suck.
The Wolves won 24 games with a full year of Miller and Foye. Those two were somehow going to magically push them over the top? Curry? Get real.
Larry Bird was a junior-eligible pick that Boston had to wait a year on… that seemed to work out ok too.
I’m not saying Rubio is Bird or Admiral, but if he really does have the tremendous-upside-potential everyone says he does, talent is talent… it’s a no-lose situation… and looking at Jermaine O’Neal’s career and I only have a five-year window (which the Wolves do) I’d much rather have Rubio 20-24 than Rubio 18-22, even if I have to wait.
BTW I would guess that the Rubio’s salary/contract length is governed by the CBA in which he was picked, not the CBA in which he enters the league–in 2011 he’ll get the starting scale for 5th in the 2009 draft, 3 guaranteed + 2 option years.