Good News on Al-Qaeda
Ian Black and Richard Norton-Taylor in The Guardian say AQ Central in Pakistan is actually not in such hot shape:
Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida is under heavy pressure in its strongholds in Pakistan’s remote tribal areas and is finding it difficult to attract recruits or carry out spectacular operations in western countries, according to government and independent experts monitoring the organisation.
Speaking to the Guardian in advance of tomorrow’s eighth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, western counter-terrorism officials and specialists in the Muslim world said the organisation faced a crisis that was severely affecting its ability to find, inspire and train willing fighters.
Its activity is increasingly dispersed to “affiliates” or “franchises” in Yemen and North Africa, but the links of local or regional jihadi groups to the centre are tenuous; they enjoy little popular support and successes have been limited.
That’s via Andrew Exum, who highlights the fact that contrary to some skepticism that he and I share about the drone attacks, that the article says they’ve played a role in this. I’ll take the overall picture they paint as evidence that we need to avoid doing anything too panicky in the region and certainly that we shouldn’t take too seriously the idea that somehow the Taliban is one step away from taking over in Islamabad. But as long as the Pakistani government actually wants to clamp down on radical groups, which has been the case in recent months, then it seems that we can help them be reasonably effective in doing so.
10 Responses to “Good News on Al-Qaeda”
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
This is certainly going to cheer up Matt Lauer. But, where’s the evidence for this tale?
September 10th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
I too am skeptical western counter terrorism officials claims of success. How many times did we capture the number two man in Al Queda? It would be great if it were true, but let’s not get too excited.
September 10th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
The article seems to completely validate the continuing US presence in Afghanistan. You recently compared our presence there to a visit to ESPNZone. Horrid as this occupation has been, it was at least justified to go there in the first place, September 11th and such. Maybe we should stay a while, eh?
September 10th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
One line stuck out to me.
That’s probably an interesting factoid to keep in mind for interrogation/intelligence debates.
September 10th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Whoa: Taliban != al Qaeda.
I would argue that the Taliban is a much larger problem. Most Taliban are Pashtun, though most Pashtun are not Taliban. But the movement has taken root in huge ethnic population that spans the Afghan-Pakistan border, and which will be there long after we’ve both the US and al Qaeda have departed.
September 10th, 2009 at 7:17 pm
I would argue that if we kill off Al Qaida, we can make a deal with the Taliban. Something along the lines of: 1) Kill any arabs that show up; 2) Leave the northern alliance alone; and 3) Good Bye and Good Riddance.
The taliban may be lunatics, but they never attacked us.
September 11th, 2009 at 7:10 am
I do not think we should give any more military aid to Pakistan until they point out the location of bin Laden and Al Zawahiri.
Their ISI most certainly knows where they are. When the Predators have done their work, maybe then you have an argument for disengagement in the region.
September 11th, 2009 at 7:14 am
Testing
September 11th, 2009 at 7:14 am
I wonder what Osama bin Laden is thinking, tonight. He knows he is dead man walking -or hiding, as the case might be. His failing kidneys or a drone attack or a sniper’s bullet will end his life soon. I am sure that imminent death does not phase the man in least -he is no doubt looking forward to it. For a courageous but worn and battle weary warrior living in a dreary cave, the first of the seven rings of heaven must seem an ever more appealing place. Once he is dead the juiciest offerings of figs and dates will finally be his. Only comfort and peace, cities of gold and rivers of honey, immortal life and virgins await.
But as he looks back, now, in life, over his earthly endeavors, does Osama bin Laden believe he accomplished all that he could? Certainly the 9/11 attack was a spectacular success. Not the attack itself, which was a pinprick, but the brilliantly planned trap the attack laid. Obama set a trap and that was blindly fallen into. Objective future historians will call it a stroke of genius. Kudos will be given.
9/11 did exactly what bin Laden intended it to do, it created the environment where the leading power amongst the Infidels, the United States, felt compelled to respond by attacking Muslim’s in Islamic lands. The first part of the bin Laden Master Plan, clearly articulated and oft stated, was to draw America into the Holy Lands and then slowly drain her of her resources and her manpower. The plan, gleaned from study of the United States’ travails in Vietnam, was to offer endless and uncompromising battle, and by so doing, sap the collective will of the United States and patiently await the day the Americans -and her equally unholy allies- ignominiously turned tail and retired from the Holy Lands in order to avoid partial collapse or, with benevolent assistance and intersession from above, total ruin.
Clearly bin Laden must be feel the first part of his Master Plan worked out as well as he could have hoped and prayed for. So many things could have gone wrong. Some form of failure was a thousand times more likely than complete success. His mostly Saudi hi-jacker teams could easily have been caught, or stopped pre-flight or in-flight, and even if they weren’t stopped, had crashed ALL FOUR planes into buildings, a then President Bush, if he survived a White House attack, could have reacted wisely by choosing a policy of aggressive Diplomacy and world wide Police Action instead of the policy bin Laden desired he adopt most -War on Islam and Invasion of the Holy Lands. That George Bush and his handlers did not react wisely? For this Osama must surely gives thanks and praise to Allah more than the requisite four times per day.
But as for achieving the objectives of the second part -the more important part- of the bin Laden Master Plan, Osama must feel a sense of ambivalence. The hope was to galvanize all Muslims, everywhere, to embrace not mulit-faceted jihad but strictly interpreted War Jihad, to join in a world wide battle against the Infidel, wherever found, as a true and proper reading of the Koran instructs and Allah thereby demands.
But the results of the effort to promote a world wide spirit of War Jihad amongst Muslims is mixed, at best, and equally as bad for bin Laden, America and her allies do not seem to be on the verge of collapse. Surely Osama sees this. It is definitively true that the United States is experiencing a draining of its resources by its extended stay in the Holy Lands. But unlike Vietnam experience, an all-volunteer force of American military personnel, augmented by just enough allies and veritable army of paid mercenaries, seems to be at least maintaining if not actually growing stronger and smarter relative to enemies, 8 years in. And even though there have been scattered Al Qaeda inspired or directed attacks at targets around the globe, in Bali, in Spain, in England (to name few), to some effect; nothing so extraordinary has resulted that would change the course of history even slightly in the favor of Islamic world dominance.
And of bin Laden’s would be warriors? Only the lads in Al Qaeda seem to fight and die with purity of cause -jihad solely for Islam and for Allah. The desultory rest fight for MANY reasons. Partly they fight for Allah to be sure, but rarely, if ever, it seems, do they fight for Osama or for his cause. They seem to fight instead from mostly classical or standard positions like duty to country or because they foolishly took a loyalty oath to an idiotic but charismatic leader. They willing fight the time honored fights involving ancient tribal emnities forgotten but not forgiven, or, like everybody else, they fight for the basest of reasons, for crass political or personal gain -for the old standbys, eh, profit, loot, and gold.
It is possible to conceive that Osama bin Laden might spend the time that remains to him believing, not that he has succeeded, but that he has utterly failed. Will he know bitterness in his final days? Does he feel the sting of doubt, I wonder, not just in the here, but of the hereafter? Just what is arguably the greatest enemy in our country’s history thinking, tonight?
September 11th, 2009 at 10:45 am
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