Forgot About Jameer
Jameer Nelson (cc photo by Keith Allison)
According to ESPN “At the moment, the big issue in evaluating the Magic seems to be what you think of Hedo Turkoglu and Vince Carter” and their experts put Orlando in distant third place in terms of who’s most likely to win the East.
This strikes me as much less relevant than the return of Jameer Nelson. In 42 games last year, Nelson averaged 31.2 points per game on a very efficient .612 TS% and had a 6.2 percent rebound rate. That’s really good. But he missed the second half of the season and most of the playoffs and then didn’t play well when he did get back in. But if you can add guy like pre-injury Nelson to your team, then you’re looking at a dramatic improvement. Can they? I have no idea. Nelson never played that well before, and maybe he’ll never reach those heights again. Then again, he was only 26 last season, maybe he’ll play better than he did and do it for 82 games. That’d be a great team. But if not, then not.
23 Responses to “Forgot About Jameer”
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September 18th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that Jameer Nelson did not average 31.2 points per game last year.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Yeah, he averaged 16.7 PPG in 31.2 MPG. That’s a very good number, still.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
CJH:
Yeah, try 16.7. What MY is in turn forgetting is that the Magic also lost Rafer Alston and Courtney, who both played well in the playoffs. So they’re giving up Turkoglu, Alston, and Lee to get Nelson and Carter. I don’t think that’s an improvement.
*Yeah I know it’s hard to take Alston seriously because he comes from that And 1 shit, but he did play well against the Cavs.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that Jameer Nelson did not average 31.2 points per game last year.
Heh.
It should also be recalled that the Magic had picked up Rafer Alston to replace Jameer last year, and Rafer is gone now. Of course, Jameer played much better pre-injury (20.6 PER) than Rafer played. Still, Rafer was a decent enough substitute in the regular season (15.6 PER with the Magic).
I think, BTW, that the article is basically right, even by missing the Jameer point – how one thinks about the Hedo/VC switch will have the most impact on how you think about the Magic this year. IMO, Vince is a MUCH better player than Hedo, so the Magic should be even better this year than last. But let’s recall that they finished third in the east last year, behind the Cavs and the injury-laden Celts. So the Magic could be better this year and still finish third.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
I saw pre-injury Jameer play in person last season, and he was the key to that offense, not Hedo. The one number that stands out, though, as a counter-argument to him repeating that huge performance: 45% 3P%. He’ll still make more of a difference than people think, but he’d be hard pressed to shoot it that well again all season.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
I see that Paulie Carbone beat me to the Alston point while I was looking up the relevant #s. Dang numbers.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
The important thing to remember about why the Magic advanced past the Cavs (with a 2-1 advantage in crazy last second shots) is that the 6′3 Delonte West could not cover the 6′9′ and fearless Hedo Turkoglu. Either Lewis or Turkoglu was consistently either open due to the need to double one of them or else under-covered. Even with Howard destroying everything in his path, I think that series comes out differently if it was Jameer Nelson playing and Lewis or Hedo out.
Carter poses no such match-up problems against the Cavs. Even if they hadn’t added Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker, West has defended Carter quite well in the past.
The end result is likely this: the Magic are better against most of the league, worse against the couple of teams they matched up uniquely well against.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Carter poses no such match-up problems against the Cavs. Even if they hadn’t added Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker, West has defended Carter quite well in the past.
Fuck, West is already gearing up to defend him:
http://deadspin.com/5362835/delonte-west-is-the-road-warrior
September 18th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Al,
That’s funny. My 4:15 post stepped on your 4:17 post, but while I was looking up dang numbers Nicholas Beaudrot’s 4:14 post stepped on my 4:15. A bunch of people trying to say the same thing. I was actually going to say the same thing as minutehourday, which is that Hedo caused match-up problems for the Cavs that Carter won’t. Carter may be a statistically better player, but he’s a pretty conventional two guard.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Fuck. I hadn’t heard that Delonte got arrested.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Even if they hadn’t added Jamario Moon
But the Cavs did add Moon. So Hedo’s supposed advantage was already gone.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
In Toronto everyone knows: always bet against Vince Carter.
September 18th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
but it’s not quite so simple to say courtney + rafer + hedo for vince. they also signed matt barnes and jason williams and have jj reddick and pietrus to pick up the role-player slack. really, the question comes down to hedo and vince.
besides, howard will be better, rashard and jameer might be better. magic are either the best or second best team in the league.
September 18th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Dtah,
Matt Barnes I’ll give you–that was an acquisition I forgot about. (Williams too, but I don’t think he’ll mean much) But Reddick and Pietrus already played for the Magic and will this year too, so they don’t figure into the equation in comparing this year’s team to last year’s.
September 18th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Let’s also remember that the Magic picked up Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson as an inside/outside tandem of backup PFs. This means that Rashard Lewis can slide over to the 3 if the Magic want to play big.
The Magic can still present a lot of matchup problems, even with Hedo gone.
September 18th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
I think, BTW, that Orlando’s best lineup this year is likely to be Howard/Bass/Lewis/Carter/Nelson. Their PERs last year: 25.4/16.4/16.8/19.3/20.6. That’s pretty damned good.
September 18th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Vince is a MUCH better player than Hedo.
Correction — Vince is a SLIGHTLY better OFFENSIVE player than Hedo.
September 18th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
MY screwed up the scoring average, but Nelson was really, really good for the first 42 games. Way better that Alston was.
If he can play halfway between that and his previous output, the Magic will stay ahead of the Celtics and have an even shot of defending their Eastern title against the Cavs.
September 18th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
Correction — Vince is a SLIGHTLY better OFFENSIVE player than Hedo.
I don’t think this is right. After seeing the vast majority of Vince’s games over the past 4+ years, I think that Vince is substantially better than Hedo on both ends of the floor.
In addition, I am skeptical about this supposed huge matchup problem that Hedo presented to the Cavs. Not only is it the case, as I mentioned above, that if there was a matchup problem last year, the Cavs solved it with Jamario Moon. But also, Hedo shot 39% against the Cavs in the playoffs! It’s not like he was completely dominating.
September 18th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Al’s right about Carter vs. Hedo. I can’t believe this is actually being disputed.
September 18th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
What Al said about Orlando’s best lineup, too. Vince Carter is the famous one, and can still play, but Bass is an excellent spot-up shooter, and because he’s so big and young will present real match-up problems for a lot of teams. He always gives the Lakers fits, for one.
September 18th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
But let’s recall that they finished third in the east last year, behind the Cavs and the injury-laden Celts.
IIRC, they had the best record in the league for a time shortly before Nelson’s injury. And they were in the pole position for the #2 seed before choking down the stretch. Just saying.
September 19th, 2009 at 3:10 am
There is something weird about the respect given big, athletic, highly skilled players like Vince Carter, that have the ability to dominate from 18 feet and in, but instead choose the rainbow fallaway from 26 feet as their go to move. I guess it is the loveliness of the ball’s seemingly endless arc and fall that is the attraction for the fans, the media, and a lot of gullible coaches. Sorta like the perverse love shown for an incoming ballistic missile that cannot be shot down (Just kidding, Russia).
That said, as Matt aptly pointed out, Jameer is 26. As much as I liked Hedo, there is not enough ball -on one team- for the both of them. Go with the younger guy. Besides, the most important factor in Orlando’s fate this season is, of course, Dwight Howard. Dwight needs to become an offensive force if the Magic are to go beyond the semi’s once again.
*Imagine if Dwight perfected the skyhook. Jumpin’ jimminy he’d be unstoppable.