Are We Still All Georgians Now?
This seems like some eminently reasonable conclusions:
A nine-month European Union investigation into the 2008 war in the Caucasus has concluded that Georgia triggered the conflict, but that Russia prepared the ground for war to break out and broke international law by invading Georgia as a whole.
Conclusions to the roughly 1,000 page report, released on Wednesday by Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, also found that Russia-backed South Ossetian militias committed atrocities and “ethnic cleansing” of Georgian villages during and since the war. It faulted Russian forces in control of the territory that either “would not or could not” control the South Ossetians.
The report found no evidence to back Russian claims that Georgia committed genocide on the night of Aug.7-8.
As you may recall, last August it immediately—and somewhat mysteriously—became dogma in American political and media circles that the conflict was a front-line struggle between freedom and dictatorship in which everyone was supposed to embrace Georgian nationalism as a core element of US grand strategy. The reality, as we can see in this report, is that Georgia very unwisely chose to launch a war with its obviously-much-larger neighbor. Sober-minded people criticized Russia for a response that swiftly went well beyond what international law permits, but it would be very unwise for the United States to take actions that encourage small friendly countries to think that they can roll the dice and be backstopped by the United States on fights about issues that, like control of South Ossetia, have nothing to do with our interests.
67 Responses to “Are We Still All Georgians Now?”
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September 30th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Re Matthew’s comment “but it would be very unwise for the United States to take actions that encourage small friendly countries to think that they can roll the dice and be backstopped by the United States on fights about issues that, like control of South Ossetia, have nothing to do with our interests.”
————-
Maybe Georgia looked at how Israel’s Likud party manipulates the US Government and decided to give it a try.
Hmmmm. I wonder if the someone ELSE might have whispered in the Georgian’s ears?
Come to think of it, there is a BIG US oil pipeline that passes through Georgia –carrying Chevron oil to Turkey.
Or does the oil flow END in Turkey?
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1358
“DEBKAfile discloses Israel’s interest in the conflict from its exclusive military sources:
Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines reach the Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian network. Intense negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey and thence to Israel’s oil terminal at Ashkelon and on to its Red Sea port of Eilat. From there, supertankers can carry the gas and oil to the Far East through the Indian Ocean.
Aware of Moscow’s sensitivity on the oil question, Israel offered Russia a stake in the project but was rejected.
Last year, the Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armored and artillery combat tactics. They also offer instruction on military intelligence and security for the central regime. Tbilisi also purchased weapons, intelligence and electronic warfare systems from Israel.
These advisers were undoubtedly deeply involved in the Georgian army’s preparations to conquer the South Ossetian capital Friday.
In recent weeks, Moscow has repeatedly demanded that Jerusalem halt its military assistance to Georgia, finally threatening a crisis in bilateral relations. Israel responded by saying that the only assistance rendered Tbilisi was “defensive.” “
September 30th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Well it was a great opportunity for “Serious!” foreign policy thinkers to advocate for more war!
September 30th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
NOTE that if Georgia has successfully conquer South Ossetia, it could have blown up the 2.5-mile long Roki Tunnel / Roksky Tunnel tunnel and Russia would have been stuck on the OTHER side of a very high mountain range from that Big Oil Pipeline.
The Israelis know that the best defense is a preemptive OFFENSE –er…except when it ain’t.
See http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/south-ossetia-5.htm
September 30th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Note also that you didn’t see much discussion of the above facts in the New York Times.
In my opinion, That’s because the purpose of the New York Times is to lie to us –not to inform us.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Matt,
Hear, hear!
Don,
That’s the second post in as many hours that you have immediately thread-jacked toward Israel and the Jews. One might suspect that you are a bit fixated.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Matt:
as you may recall, last August it immediately—and somewhat mysteriously
Here’s Matt again taking the big bully Russia’s side against the underdog Georgia.
Yes Georgia wasn’t smart and they’re a bit reckless like Israel. Russia’s overreaction just proved right those who argue Russia’s a big bully who likes to push around its “near neighbors.” It’s good to see when underdog however recklessly pushes back.
And it’s always funny when Matt becomes the cold realist and blithely asserts “it would be very unwise for the United States to take actions that encourage small friendly countries to think that they can roll the dice and be backstopped by the United States on fights about issues that, South Ossetia, have nothing to do with our interests.”
I don’t see how we encouraged Georgia. They’ve always hated the Russians. Just as the Israelis and Arabs hate each other.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Re heedless
Is Mr. heedless not aware that the blogs resident Bolshevik, Mr. Williams, is absolutely obsessed with the State of Israel and its supporters in the United States? He continues to maintain that the Government of Israel inveigled the US into the Iraq adventure, despite the testimony of former Colin Powell deputy Lawrence Wilkerson that the relevant officials there advised against invading Iraq. Like the the birthers and the troofers, his mind is made up and no evidence will convince him otherwise.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
This report is obviously a product of European deep anti-georgianism. Plus, Russia is secretly controlling the EU thanks to the almighty natural gas.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
So Texas declares independence and Mexico moves armored columns into Texas and starts ethnically cleansing the
Anglos and firing rockets into Oklahoma.
When the US fires on Mexican troops in Texas Matty is willing to blame the US for starting a war?
This is such bullshit.
And the reason it is bullshit is that it legitimizes and legalizes the law of the jungle in international affairs.
So if Putin invades the former East Germany to defend a “breakaway” movement the German Republic must not fight back?
No Matty’s point is that the world should not care enough about Georgia to defend its territorial integrity.
Because after all what is Georgia to us?
And you wonder why Obama and the Left are derided for playing Butt Boy to Putin?
Europe has no choice but to kiss the ass of the KGB thug.
But the US?
September 30th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Re SLC at 7:
I KNEW that if I blew on my SLC whistle , he would come barking.
For news articles Re how Likudites Ariel Sharon, Bibi Nathanyahu, and Shimon Peres helped con America into a bloody, unnecessary war, see http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obamas_jewish_problem.php#comment-2136706
By the way, SLC, you never answered my question: Did Mossad find Saddam’s nukes yet? Israeli billionaire Haim Saban’s buttboy, Kenneth Pollack–of Bill Clinton’s National Security Council , said they gotta be there somewhere.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
As a native of Ukraine, I like to think that I know a little something about Russia’s behavior towards its “near abroad”. When I say Russia, I’m mostly referring to its leadership, but it probably applies to a healthy chunk of its population.
It’s really not all that complicated. Russia is incredibly insecure about its role in the world following the collapse of the Soviet Union and its subsequent economic problems. Now that it has sort of regained its economic footing (mostly due to high energy prices), it is very eager to flex its muscles on the world stage and especially in the near abroad, if for no other reason than to show its relevance. That’s why you have to treat it with a light touch, especially (again) when it comes to the near abroad.
This is why Georgian leadership was so dumb to start a shooting war in its breakaway provinces with Russian “peacekeepers” ready to jump into action and punish Georgia for its intransigence. They’ve been waiting for that exact opportunity. This is why the missile shields and Ukraine’s entry into Nato are such provocative and unnecessary steps. I think that Obama, being the strategic thinker that he is, understands the situation quite well and we finally have the leadership to match wits with the undeniable strong strategic thinker like Putin. Perhaps it’ll even get us somewhere with Iran, though I doubt Russia will want to give up its leverage and relevance on the issue.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Choochoo
And you wonder why Obama and the Left are derided for playing Butt Boy to Putin?
The trade off is cooperation on nuclear arms control and Iran and Afghanistan. Russia is letting the US use a resupplying base.
Matt’s just trying to make fun of McCain’s overheated rhetoric.
Matt also made fun of the “Green Revolution” in Iran and prematurely said it was over, since we shouldn’t antagonize the Iranian regime.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/30/world/middleeast/30iran.html?_r=1&ref=world
Iranian Students Stage 2nd Big Protest Since Returning to University Campuses
Students at one of Iran’s largest universities staged an antigovernment protest on Tuesday, the second big demonstration at a major university in two days and a further indication that government efforts to intimidate student leaders have not been entirely successful.
Over 1,000 students demonstrated at Sharif University in Tehran on Tuesday morning to protest a visit by the minister of science and higher education, Kamran Daneshjoo, a student Web site, Advarnews, reported.
Protesters carried green balloons and ribbons, a symbol of the protest movement since the disputed June 12 presidential election, and banners that read “The university is still alive,” according to the Web site.
The Web site also reported that the university’s security guards were not able to disperse the crowed as it kept growing.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
The Georgia misadventure was just another of a long line promoted by the neocon/zionist a**holes.
The evidence is plentiful, but as Don says, you won’t find it in the US media.
Now if they can only succeed in starting a war over Iran’s perfectly legal actions, they will be so happy.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Georgia was always an artificial state that was simply the legacy of first Russian Imperial and then Soviet administrative convenience and at no time since Georgian independence did Georgians proper have direct control over South Ossetia or Abkhazia. That this border was internationally recognized did not give Saakashvili the right to simply try to extend his physical control.
Saakashvili is a little man who induced by an inherent megalomania fed in large part by his own Wormtongue Randy Scheunemann.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Scheunemann
Saaksshvili saw that his own paid lobbyist was running the campaign of John McCain and was induced by that to believe that he had the full backing of the U.S. which would come to his aid in the event of a war with Russia. And if McCain had been elected might well have been right, if the PNAC Vulcans (for whom Scheunemann is a director and President of PNACs Committee for the Liberation of Iraq) had their way we would likely be in the all out World War IV they have been pushing for all along.
I find it hard to blame Russia here. The Bush/Cheney/PNAC foreign policy was openly based on the concept of ‘The Worlds Only Superpower’ and in everything from missile defense in Poland to building up Georgia into a NATO candidate (which meant bringing its Army to NATO level capability) they made it clear that their goal was first containment and then rollback of Russian power, i.e. by trying to draw Ukraine into the western military and economic orbit.
It is worth noting what Russia actually did on entering Georgia proper. From Abkhazia they moved south and largely destroyed the Navy Base and what limited Naval assets Georgia had at Poli, from South Ossetia they penetrated only as far as needed to destroy the NATO quality base the U.S. had been financing near Tbilsi. Given the sabre rattling coming out of Washington at the time this seems like little more than prudent self-defense and a needed lesson to Saakashvili. To the extent it violated international accords I expect that Russia will accept whatever hand slapping it gets.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Okay mr ChooChoo, it’s August 2008 and you’re the president of United State, Russia just invaded Georgia over the conflict in South Osetia, what do you do? All out war? Ready the nukes? Seriously, what are you going to do over a conflict thousands of miles away having to do with local history and politics that you haven’t a faintest understanding of?
September 30th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Just a reminder that Obama agreed with the neocon line at the time. Obama solidified this false reality. Even though McCain’s chief of staff was literally a foreign agent at the time and may have encouraged Georgia to attack!
And smart progressives at the time assured us Obama was clever enough to know that Georgia may have been the aggressor but for political reasons needed to pretend that Russia was a big meanie.
Obama has subsequently adopted many other right-wing canards, the latest involving Iran, and we still get this 11th dimensional chess argument that he is engaging in this propaganda so as to cleverly trick his opponents into thinking he is ‘tough’ but will secretly fight for more sane policies–or something.
Ha.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Wall Street Journal:
Georgia triggered the conflict, but that Russia prepared the ground for war to break out and broke international law by invading Georgia as a whole.
Conclusions to the roughly 1,000 page report, released on Wednesday by Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, also found that Russia-backed South Ossetian militias committed atrocities and “ethnic cleansing”
Reminds one of Israel and the Phalangists in Lebanon. Phalangists wiped out Palestinian refugee camps under the eye of the Israelis. Russia like Israel doesn’t really care how the rest of the world sees them as long as they look tough. See Chechnya. See their diplomatic backing of the Serbs.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Choo Choo there is no such thing as ‘Georgian territorial integrity’. It was simply a line drawn on a map by first the Czar in 1802 and later the Soviets after the much larger Georgian Kingdom got dismantled over a period of centuries. You might as well base your reality on the following map from Wiki showing Georgia circa 1300.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Geor_tamro_aandersen.GIF
Georgia made a nakedly aggressive move against two largely autonomous areas and got spanked. Funny how no one was thinking ‘We are now Abkhazians now’ when Georgia tried to dominate an ethnically different people. The U.S. has no obligations to tie itself to the ambitions of every tinpot dictator in the world. And I bet 99% of Americans STILL could not point to Georgia on the map or are wondering why we ever let the Russians attack Atlanta to start with.
It is not even dog-whistling. The PNAC openly rings the dinner bell and all its puppies at home start drooling.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
It should also be noted that the circumstances are very similar to Israel’s recent war in Lebanon. Hizbullah attacked some soldiers in Israel and instead of using a proportionate response it beat the shit out of Lebanon as a whole for a month. The United States defended this action and even rushed weaponry to the Israelis to help them do it.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Um, if you remember back to the campaign, “SFHawkGuy”, Obama and the neocons said VERY different things, and Obama was hammered by the neocons for being equivocal and soft in his responses. I remember well that everyone was saying how it was “a big win for mccain!” because of his “sharper tone”. We all know how that turned out.
Obama on the Georgian conflict:
“I think it is important at this point for all sides to show restraint and to stop this armed conflict.”
“No matter how this conflict started, Russia has escalated it well beyond the dispute over South Ossetia and — and has now violated the space of another country.”
Now what Mccain said:
“And he wanted me to say thank you to you, to give you his heartfelt thanks for the support of the American people for this tiny, little democracy, far away from the United States of America. And I told him…
And I told him that I know I speak for every American when I say to him, “Today, we are all Georgians.”
And, given this report, in hindsight, Obama was exactly correct. Georgians DID start it, and Russia DID escalate it beyond what is legally allowed. So what’s the problem?
September 30th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
SFHawkguy:
It should also be noted that the circumstances are very similar to Israel’s recent war in Lebanon. Hizbullah attacked some soldiers in Israel and instead of using a proportionate response it beat the shit out of Lebanon as a whole for a month. The United States defended this action and even rushed weaponry to the Israelis to help them do it.
Your post @ 16 is by far the stupidest thing I’ve read today but you’re right about this. Israel has done nothing but alienate itself further by invading Lebanon and blockading Gaza. I fear they will attack Iran but there is no way they can sustain an invasion.
Obama and the US won’t invade Iran despite what the antiwar assholes in the comment section say.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Russia like Israel doesn’t really care how the rest of the world sees them as long as they look tough.
That seems oddly familiar so I reached into the Memory Hole and pulled up this from Mr. Jonah P-L
So it doesn’t look like Russia or Israel have a patent on this particular theory. Who the hell cares if Iraq actually was a threat or not? Or that Americans are getting blown up for no clear reason in Afghanistan. Because real men kick ass because we can and never ever back down.
Gosh maybe Bush really did look in Putin’s eyes and saw his soul. “Man that is one mean son of a bitch, I’ll show him two people can play that game”
September 30th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Wrong Aqua Regina.
Obama originally was measured but was baited by McCain into taking a very anti-Russian response. Yes, he was less belligerent than McCain. But McCain wanted to rush full-on into a military confrontation with Russia when we already had 2 wars going! And McCain’s chief of staff was literally a foreign agent of Georgia! Of course Obama was more measured than McCain.
But Obama adopted the false premise that even I could see was false at the time and which this report now confirms; that Georgia was the aggressor.
Lincoln Mitchell describes where Obama and McCain agreed:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lincoln-mitchell/obama-mccain-and-russias_b_118984.html
September 30th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Re Don Williams
Mr. Williams can post all the news articles he likes; he is still full of shit. Lawrence Wilkerson was there and present when Ariel Sharon advised the US representatives that an invasion of Iraq was a bad idea because Iraq posed a counter point to Iran; overthrowing Saddam would only cause instability in Iraq and would empower Iran, which was the true threat in the region. How right he was! None of the folks quoted by Mr. Williams, including Bibi were there when this conversation took place.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Israel cannot attack Iran without active U.S. complicity. Period. It doesn’t have enough KC-135 tankers to refuel the planes as they exit Iran and even refueling the F-15s and F-16s on the way in means staging those KC-135s over Iraqi or Turkish or Saudi Arabian air space and any of those means the U.S. seeing what is happening and standing by on the attack run and actively assisting in the recovery of the jets afterwards.
Israel has the air power to start a war but they don’t have nearly enough to do the job. It is a total fantasy. At least that it the clear conclusion you should get in reading Cordesman and Toukan’s recent assessment from CSIS. (big PDF)
Outline of Study on an Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities
And when backed to the wall Neo-Cons admit that any such action will simply serve as a trigger forcing the U.S. to finish the job they think we should have done long ago.
You can’t wave your hands in the air and make the realities of plane range and refueling capacity just go away, this isn’t a game of risk where you can just move some counters around on the map board. Somebody has to deliver the gas at the right time and place or your planes fall out of the air or land in someone else’s country.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Soviet Georgia was a great place, I loved it. Now – not so much.
They should’ve stayed with Russia.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
…and actually the same could be said about most of the Soviet republics. The Baltic states is probably the only exception.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
There’s nothing in this report that wasn’t already obvious last year. Georgia responded to Russia disproportionately, which then responded to Georgia disproportionately. Which still doesn’t mean it’s okay for the Russian military to occupy sovereign Georgian territory, which was the problem to begin with.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
@ abb1: Yeah Belorussia is just flourishing these days innit?
September 30th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Matt seems to have developed a reputation for precision in these parts, so I am curious as to what, precisely, he means by Georgia deciding to “launch” a war with it’s neighbor. It did not such thing. As the report says, it definitely triggered the conflict, and unwisely so. But there were al lot of other triggers, among them the insecurity of the Russian leadership with respect to the size of their penises. Georgia launched an operation to retake control over territories that, whatever the history, were internationally recognized as part of Georgia. Oh, and where Georgians were being friggin massacred. So you know, they launched a war within Georgia to prevent Georgians from being massacred. So evil! Of course, just to spite the zionist neocons (read: Jews), folks here would rather see a genocide of Georgians than defend a country with ties to Israel.
Again, with respect to the decisionmaking, no one argues that there wasn’t lots foolishness on the Georgian side. But to say that they launched a war with Russia, as Matt does, is preposterous.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Belarus’ HDI is higher than Russia’s, incidentally.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Re SLC at 24: “Mr. Williams can post all the news articles he likes; he is still full of shit.”
————–
Hey, SLC, something to get the ole blood circulating:
The New York Times put up an article today re the new Iranian enrichment facility — comparing the current situation to the run up to the invasion of Iraq. Has 139 reader comments so far — with only 6 selected by the New York Times editors as “Editor Choice”
Guess WHOSE comment is numero uno?
http://community.nytimes.com/comments/www.nytimes.com/2009/09/30/world/middleeast/30intel.html?sort=editors-selection
hee hee
September 30th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Matt seems to have developed a reputation for precision in these parts, so I am curious as to what, precisely, he means by Georgia deciding to “launch” a war with it’s neighbor. It did not such thing. As the report says, it definitely triggered the conflict, and unwisely so.
True. Matt isn’t above bending the truth or spinning when he feels like it. It’s not that often but it’s very blatant as in this instance, so anyone who knows something about the subject is aware what he’s doing. It’s as if he’s trying to be provocative in a blogtastic manner.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Re: @ abb1: Yeah Belorussia is just flourishing these days innit?
Idiot Philly Guy,
Belarus is doing well these days. Its economy shrank less, after the Soviet collapse, then most Eastern European countries, and actually grew last year by 9%. As compared to the 0.4% growth rate in the United States. It also has a very low level of economic inequality, lower than Mr. Yglesias’ precious Germany. In many ways, Belarus is a success story, and is sure a hell of a lot better off than Georgia. They are also, of course, a close ally of Venezuela.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Shorter Hector: Ally yourself with Venezuela, and all will be well!
September 30th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Except in this case Freddy the numbers actually back Hector up. As I’ve already mentioned, Belarus has a higher human development index than Russia. they are also 10th in the entire world in GDP growth per capita. And 20th in Gini coefficient, meaning that they have very low income inequality (From the 2005 data I found Hector, they are at 29.7, slightly worse than Germany’s 28, but virtually identical). Russia is at 41 and the United States is at 45.
Therefore, I would say that Hector is in the right here.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Aqua Regia, I was wondering whether correlation = causation. Thanks for clearing it up.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
LOL.
Georgia didn’t start a war, it just launched an operation.
This is a good example of the juvenile thinking that characterized neoconservatives (not re: Jews, but rather, re: neoconservatives): “It’s different, because we’re the good guys.” You see, the Georgians had really, really good reasons to shell and send armored columns into South Abkazia, so therefore, doing so shouldn’t be called “starting a war.”
It’s different, cuz we’re the good guys. Grow up.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
In my experience, people who get caught with their pants down in an internet debate like to throw out the name of a logical fallacy, like some sort of covering fire, as they beat a hasty retreat.
“Straw man” and “correlation doesn’t equal causation” are two favorites.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Belarus didn’t have a civil war like other former republics, no naked power struggle, no revolutions. It’s stable. I think arguably they are better off, especially if you favor evolutionary development over a radical, revolutionary one.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Joe, I have no idea what you are talking about. How did Georgia start this war? They conducted a military operation within their own country. Russia then attacked Georgia. This has nothing to do with good guys are bad guys.
With respect to correlation and causation, I was just trying to figure out whether the relationship with Venezuala is the cause of Belarus’s propserity.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Geez, didn’t think there were so many defenders out there of authoritarian ruled, Soviet-style economies supported by below-market energy prices from Venezuela and Russia. Good to know. Anyway, the GDP per capita is not as bad as I thought (between Bulgaria and Iran), but hardly flourishing either. Seems to me, that the price to pay for this economic stability is pretty damn high, if you’re at all interested in things like civil liberties and basic democratic institutions.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Re: With respect to correlation and causation, I was just trying to figure out whether the relationship with Venezuala is the cause of Belarus’s propserity.
Dunce, the alliance with Venezuela was cited as proof that Belarus has a moral foreign policy, in contrast to that of the United States.
It is unrelated to the fact that Belarus is _also_ a fairly prosperous and egalitarian society.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Why don’t you read the report Matt linked to instead of pulling “facts” out of your ass, and feigning ignorance about the legal, political, and military situation in South Ossetia?
The fact that you have strong feelings about who SHOULD have had de facto and de jure rights to station troops in the region doesn’t change the reality.
Christ, the Georgians shelled territory full of civilians as part of their “military operations in their own territory,” in an effort to drive out Russian forces that had an international mandate to be there, and you think that putting a happy smiley face on that changes the fact that doing so started a war?
No, no, it’s different, because the Georgians were the good guys! Whatever.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Re: Seems to me, that the price to pay for this economic stability is pretty damn high, if you’re at all interested in things like civil liberties and basic democratic institutions.
Ah, the Yglesian yahoos are out in force, I see. Philly Guy, democratic institutions are a means, not an end in themselves. When they fail to serve that end, they have outgrown their usefulness, and should be abolished. Belarus has achieved low levels of inequality, a high standard of living, and a stable, peaceful and reasonably content society. The demise of liberal democracy strikes me as a price very well worth paying. As President Lukashenko’s election campaign asked a few years ago, “Which is more useful? Freedom or sausage?”
September 30th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Alternate reality: as radioactive Europe smokes in the aftermath of Bizarro Helmut Kohl’s ill-advised invasion of East Germany, FreddyBak explains that West Germany didn’t start the war, because really, the Soviets and East Germans shouldn’t have been there anyway.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Yep, still not thrilled about the prospect of bringing Georgia into NATO.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
@Hector:
Are you effing kidding me? You’re basically making the argument of dictators world over (stability vs. freedom), even quoting the dude’s “campaign” (the one where his opponents and opposition protesters were beaten and thrown in jail). First of all, let’s stop pretending that it’s some sort of utopia over there, 65th GDP per capita in the world is nothing to brag over. Second, let’s not forget that it’s massively subsidized by Russia, so its economic stability is not self-sustaining. The argument you’re making can only come from someone who has never lived under dictatorship and its asinine.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Philly Guy,
Ah, more of the junior high school textbook stuff about the glories of democracy. Yes, I’m definitely more on the side of Lukashenko than his opponents here, and consider his opposition for the most part to be a bunch of oligarchs and U.S. collaborators anxious to import the same Western capitalism that appears to be falling apart at the seams. Liberal democracy ‘works’ for some countries but not for many others, it’s strictly a means and not an end, and when it doesn’t work it should be replaced.
The reason that argument about stability vs. freedom is made so often, is because it happens to be _true_. It’s true in Venezuela, it’s true in Cuba, and it’s true in Belarus. Apparently you prefer to be on the side of the twittering hipster ‘democracy activists’ instead.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Not much sympathy here for folks who lob shells into civilian areas policed by much larger, stronger armies. Little sympathy for Hamas and Hezbollah because of this, same with Georgia. If they want to pick a fight with a much larger neighbor that’s their prerogative I guess, but I’ve always thought it especially stupid for the aggressor to go around begging the rest of the world to come in and save their ass from the consequences of a truly stupid decision that they made.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
El Duce Hector:
It’s true in Venezuela, it’s true in Cuba, and it’s true in Belarus. Apparently you prefer to be on the side of the twittering hipster ‘democracy activists’ instead.
As Churchill famously said, democracy is the least worst alternative. You might get lucky and get a decent dictator, but there’s no guarantee the next guy will be as good and if you get a bad apple, you’re stuck with him. See what happened with Iraq and Saddam.
What I’m starting to question is the viability of sanctions. Whether on Iran or Burma or whoever. Sanctions plus Saddam destroyed Iraq. Sanctions destroy the village in order to save it. Instead of isolating these regimes, which they obviously don’t like – they’re often as hedonistic as the West – look at North Korea – or worse – why not subvert them via “soft power” and the Internet and free and open trade?
Hector assumes the populations of these countries want what their overlords want them to have, when in fact they just want Jordache jeans and disco music and Baywatch and the chance to lead normal lives without the hassle often provided by dictatorships. In fact Hector is rather patronizing about the citizens of these countries.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Hector, I don’t come over here that regularly, so I’m not sure if I’m indulging your trollish tendencies or what, but you’re clearly ignorant on a number of levels if you really believe the nonsense you’re spouting. Not to make this personal, but you maybe missed the part where I said I’m originally from Ukraine, i.e., former Soviet Union. In other words, I have first hand experience (granted I was a kid, but it’s more than you’ve got) and tons of direct second hand accounts of what life is like in an undemocratic society. Not some textbook fluff, but real life.
So to see someone making the case for petro-dictators and Soviet-style strongmen in the 21st century is a bit shocking. Not to sounds like a teabagger, but that style of government really does make its citizens completely dependent on its govenment for survival. It may provide stability while petrol bucks (or whoever is subsidizing you with petrol bucks) are rolling in, but sooner or later it implodes economically, not to mention socially. To see someone take the freedoms we have so for granted as to say, they only serve as means to an end….not an end itself is pretty twisted. You really think it’s not so bad to live in a country without basic civil libetrties protections? Without the knowledge that any day, the state security apparatus can throw you in jail for something as innocent as collecting rare coins (as happened to my great-uncle in the 1970s). You’re the naive one my friend, go tell the protesters getting raped in Iran’s jails that stability is more important than freedom.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
This is a good example of the juvenile thinking that characterized neoconservatives (not re: Jews, but rather, re: neoconservatives): “It’s different, because we’re the good guys.” You see, the Georgians had really, really good reasons to shell and send armored columns into South Abkazia, so therefore, doing so shouldn’t be called “starting a war.”
Same goes for Hezbollah. Since they’re fighting Israel, kidnapping their soldiers and firing rockets at Israeli civilians is seen as legit by “antiwar” people. And Israeli overreacting to these provocations is somehow criminal.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
if you get a bad apple, you’re stuck with him
Poptarts – even more like Chauncey Gardner than Yglesias himself.
September 30th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Philly Guy,
I’m not going to argue this point further, as I don’t think we have even the slightest common ground. I find your point of view abhorrent and immoral, and maybe you think the same of mine. I will just note, though, that just one of us has adduced any actual statistics here to prove our point. Me.
Poptarts, as I’ve said before, you are the intellectual and moral equivalent of a five year old who doesn’t want to eat their vegetables. Fortunately the people of Venezuela, Madagascar, Cuba and Belarus are more intellectually advanced than you, and they wish to keep power out of the hands of people like you. As they should.
September 30th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
abb1:
Soviet Georgia was a great place, I loved it. Now – not so much.
They should’ve stayed with Russia.
I’ll agree with you on this. The consolation prize for coming in second in the Cold War is that you get to become a giant brothel!
Which is why many Russians are nostalgic for the Soviet era. Despite the economic calamity of the post-Soviet years, the former republics don’t seem to feel this way which is why they’re reaching out to the US. Poland, Ukraine, George, the Baltic states, the Czechs. And the central Asian states routinely play the US and Russia off one another.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Re Phillyguy at 52: “To see someone take the freedoms we have so for granted as to say, they only serve as means to an end….not an end itself is pretty twisted. You really think it’s not so bad to live in a country without basic civil libetrties protections? Without the knowledge that any day, the state security apparatus can throw you in jail for something as innocent as collecting rare coins (as happened to my great-uncle in the 1970s). You’re the naive one my friend, go tell the protesters getting raped in Iran’s jails that stability is more important than freedom.”
————–
I have never lived in the Soviet Union or Iran so I can not say how they stack up relative to the USA.
I will note that many Americans have a much less pleasant experience with the US government than does Philly Guy. We have by far the highest incarceration rate in the world — much higher even than totalitarian China.
Our much vaunted Bill Of Rights evidently can be tossed aside like used toilet paper merely on the basis of legalistic sophistry from Gonzales, John Yoo or David Addington.
Our inequity of income is much worse than Europes — almost as bad as some South American dictatorships.
ANd we have people raped in prison all the time — they joke about it on late night shows.
I used to think we were better at respecting civil liberties than the rest of the world. Now I’m not so sure. It seems that you can sustain that illusion only if you toe the line. Certainly it is US law that you can be tossed out on the streets to starve at the whim of your employer.
And that the average citizen can have $150,000 of debt dumped on him in order to bail out Wall Street gamblers.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
PS And re being tossed in jail for collecting coins, you could be imprisoned in the USA for possessing gold coins in the period from FDR’s Administration until Richard Nixon made possessing gold legal.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
Oh yes — try taking more than $10,000 out of the country without reporting it — or bring more than $10,000 into the country. We’re not talking just cash either — gold, jewelry,etc all count.
September 30th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
I hear you. On the other hand, one of the preconditions for joining NATO is that the applicant nation not have any unresolved territorial disputes. If the prospect of that sweet, sweet military aid and mutual defense compact can motivate the Georgians to take their damn medicine already i/r/t South Ossetia and Abkhazia, that can’t be a bad thing.
September 30th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
Some anti-war people. Most seem to take a “screw them all” attitude. Sympathy for the populations Israel frequently brutalizes isn’t actually the same thing as sympathy for the rather nasty political movements that grow out of them. Far more common is the attitude that such nasty political movements are the cost of irresponsible, imperialist policies.
Overreacting, in the sense of using disproportionate violence or targeting civilians is criminal, no ifs ands or buts about it. This is not a controversial statement, or a stretch. It’s black-letter international law, articulated in the Geneva Conventions and elsewhere.
October 1st, 2009 at 12:05 am
Hector, I’m pretty sure 95 percent of the American public finds your views immoral and abhorrent, so have fun hanging out with the pro-dictator fan club. Maybe you and the guy from Newsmax calling for a military coup against Obama can host a pot-luck dinner or something. And your data is absolutely worthless if you really believe Belarus has a high standard of living. You’re a sheltered fool utterly convinced in your own cleverness. Btw, out of the top 30 most developed nations in the world, how many are not liberal democracies? Thought so…
Don, I am not saying US is perfect, there is still plenty of work to be done on the issues you raise. The Bush was certainly a low-point for American moral standing in the world and hopefully there is return to the rule of law with the Obama presidency. Our political/economic system isn’t ideal, and it could use some serious tweeking, but it really is the least bad option out there.
October 1st, 2009 at 12:38 am
Aqua Regia,
The numbers I found said that the Gini coefficiemnt was at 27.9, just below Germany. Yes, they do look pretty good. Belarus is clearly doing a lot of things right- their unemployment rate is apparently under 2%.The big problem with Belarus appears to be their fertility rate. On the other hand, there is a slow growth in religiosity (perhaps fostered by the concordat with the Belarusian Church) so hopefully that will help raise their birth rate. Maybe, too, they can take in more Assyrian immigrants like Sweden has. I have a lot of hope for Russia, Belarus, and the rest of the East.
I would bet that Belarus (and to some extent its friend and protector, Russia) will emerge from the coming economic crisis- which will make the Great Depression look like a tea party- in better shape than America. Venezuela is doing pretty well, too (and like Belarus, they have a lower unemployment rate than President Obama has been able to achieve here). They are engaged in a collaboration on dairy production with Venezuela now, I believe.
October 1st, 2009 at 12:40 am
Russia, of course, beyond being just the friend and protector of Belarus, is serving a very invaluable role by helping out the emerging group of Latin American nations hostile to the American political and economic system- Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Cuba, and Ecuador. It’s a pity that they haven’t yet helped out the Rajoelina regime though. He needs foreign help if anyone does.
October 1st, 2009 at 12:54 am
Though actually it does look like Belarus has problems with cultural and religious repression beyond the merely political. I don’t have a problem with nonliberal regimes in principle (Venezuela certainly isn’t a liberal state, after all) but I am concerned about the religious and social repression there (and, as I understand it, in Russia too). I hope they can create more space for religious minorities and liberalize themselves a little bit, within the context of a generally socialist and agrarian order (which has served their economy well, it would seem).
Introducing the kind of system that Poptarts longs for would, of course, be a cure no better than the disease.
October 1st, 2009 at 2:04 am
firing rockets at Israeli civilians is seen as legit by “antiwar” people.
One can’t be a part of colonizing militantly racist entity and declare himself ‘civilian’.
You want to be a civilian – move to Norway, or something. Otherwise, don’t complain.
October 1st, 2009 at 9:08 am
Re Don Williams @ #32
Gee, Mr. Don Williams of Philadelphia, current home of the worlds most notorious procurer of fighting dogs.