Democrats Losing Faith in Obama, Congressional Democrats
Nice poll breakdown by Greg Sargent:
Here are the net favorability ratings for Obama — i.e., the difference between the favorable and unfavorable ratings — broken down by party and compared with the previous week:
DEMOCRATS: +72 (+78)
REPUBLICANS: – 86 (- 84)
INDEPENDENTS: +35 (+39)And here are the net favorability ratings for Congressional Dems, broken down by party and compared with the previous week:
DEMOCRATS: +55 (+65)
REPUBLICANS: – 90 (- 90)
INDEPENDENTS: – 20 (- 15)
The long hot summer of right-wing attacks on health reform has hurt Barack Obama’s standing among Republicans and Independents, but the esteem in which he’s held by fellow Democrats has declined further. And on the congressional side it appears that the preponderance of growing discontent with congressional Democrats is coming from their own supporters.
29 Responses to “Democrats Losing Faith in Obama, Congressional Democrats”
Register
RSSLogin
Topic Cloud
ArchivesBlog RollAbout Matt YglesiasContact Me
Donate
August 21st, 2009 at 5:43 pm
I think we have to hope that the low-key approach that prevailed in the White House until a few days ago was mr. Obama’s rope-a-dope strategy. he used this approach in the campaign, to great effect. he likes to let the opposition show his hand, then his other hand, then his ass.
this is a high-risk maneuver (Mr. Ali admitted in later interviews that he got hurt a bit v. Foreman–no kidding!), but it has much virtue if u have the balls to stay through to the end.
i hope that’s what we’re seeing. even in our debased political and media culture, those town hall crazies are NOT recruiting anyone with their behavior. And although the haters like Limbagh and Beck are not to be taken lightly, it does seem that the American public is finally (!), bit by bit, getting over them, even seeing through them a little. god help us, i hope so.
After all,the repubs pulled out all the secret-muslim, white folk hater, terrorist fist-bump b.s. during the campaign and ultimately, the tactics came undone. SOME Americans, somewhere, somehow MUST be getting the picture this time, too, after the ‘death panels’ biz and the rest.
if i were a praying man, this is what i’d be praying for right now. first, that the American public is capable of rising above, and second, that what we are seeing is conscious strategy by BHO, and not just error.
let us pray together.
August 21st, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Look, it’s pretty simple. Health care has exposed the fact that not only is bipartisan progress impossible, so is partisan progress. There are enough Democrats whose job in Congress is to protect vested interests to make up a permanent majority with the Republicans. Now that they have theoretical power, this is being made to Democratic voters, or rather, people who used to Democratic voters until they stopped showing up in 2010.
I don’t think Obama is one of those folks, but he is unwilling or unable to bring them to heel. I admit doing so is a high-risk venture, since it means STATING that a significant section of your own party is venal and despicable.
August 21st, 2009 at 5:52 pm
I’ve not seen anyone make explicit the obvious point with regard to this poll yet: Obama’s decline among Democrats is more likely due to lack of progress and apparent wavering on health care, not because of the month-long attacks.
They are having doubts about whether their preferred policy will indeed be enacted. It is not that they are being swayed by irrational screeching (which is what so many reviews of this poll seem to credit).
August 21st, 2009 at 5:55 pm
“Right-wing attacks”, Rubbish! Did you ever think it might be His incompetence as a leader and Congressional Democrats incompetence. As Wellington said at Waterloo, “they came in the same way and we sent them out the same way.” Belief in your own publicity is fatal, just ask Newt Gingrich
August 21st, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Or maybe the right wing attacks have nothing to do with it at all, seeing as the drop is across party lines. And maybe it has something to do with… policies? effectiveness?
August 21st, 2009 at 6:08 pm
Here’s AP’s lede on the poll:
My question: Why the focus on the deficit? Most people don’t understand the dynamics that revolve around the deficit. All that does is stoke paranoia that we as a nation are going broke, which leads to all sorts of illogical conclusions. Whether or not some Joe the Plumber schmuck is concerned about the deficit is irrelevant. What matters is the worth of the policies we enact.
August 21st, 2009 at 6:10 pm
bubba has the right of it. Strange that Matt does not choose to make this point. As I’ve watched Obama waver and compromise again and again on health care, I’ve certainly lost confidence in him.
If Congress passes a bill that can reasonably be called “health care reform,” you’ll see Obama’s numbers rebound among Democrats immediately. The independent numbers will probably rebound some months later. Everyone loves a winner and no one likes a loser.
August 21st, 2009 at 6:14 pm
“but the esteem in which he’s held by fellow Democrats has declined further”
Hmmm…
Democrats losing faith in Obama in the last week.
What news has been made in the last week about Obama’s fidelity to core Democratic principles?
It’s almost as if the Democratic electorate actually cares about the public option…
—–
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again:
Off-year elections are about base mobilization.
If the final healthcare bill doesn’t have a public option, the Democratic base is going to stay home in 2010.
The choice for the WH is between a robust public option and Speaker Boehner.
August 21st, 2009 at 6:14 pm
“Strange that Matt does not choose to make this point.”
Really?
Have you read this blog before?
August 21st, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Sure would be nice if Obama cared more about helping Americans than Grassley’s delicate sensibilities.
August 21st, 2009 at 7:01 pm
There is no surer way to kill your own party than to win a solid mandate and then prove completely unwilling to govern in the interests of the people who elected you. Considering the nature of the opposition, pray we’re not watching the beginnings of this dynamic in action.
August 21st, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Erosion of support among Democrats is obviously a significant cause for concern for Obama, but let’s not lose sight of the actual numbers. In the grand scheme of things, an 83% fav./11% unfav. rating is not dramatically different from a 87% fav./9% unfav. This is especially true when the group being surveyed is unlikely to actively support the other side (unlike independents).
I’d say the biggest concern from that poll is that Obama now has a -7% net favorability among voters over the age of 60, and the Republicans have a one point lead in the generic ballot among that group. That’s the number that’ll give the Democratic strategists the most heartburn as far as midterm elections are concerned, given that turnout will be much higher among older voters than younger ones.
August 21st, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Well this democrat is losing enthusiasm for Obama because he’s allowed the entire health care debate to be driven by the right. He’s made foolish attempts to compromise and all he’s gotten is knifed by Grassley. Can someone tell me what there is to be enthusiastic about? Because until recently the White House seem-d bound and determined to walk it back to the mainstream media phony “center.”
Reconcile the damn bill, with a public option. There will be howls of outrage, and in 6 months the whole thing will be forgotten and the right will have some new ludicrous charges.
August 21st, 2009 at 8:02 pm
To back up my last point about the elderly vote – in the most recent midterm election, according to the US Census, the overall turnout was 48%. Among voters from ages 18-14, turnout was 22%. Among voters over 55, turnout was 63%.
That’s the elephant in the room.
August 21st, 2009 at 8:13 pm
“let’s not lose sight of the actual numbers. In the grand scheme of things, an 83% fav./11% unfav. rating is not dramatically different from a 87% fav./9% unfav.”
In “the grand scheme of things”, that probably means the loss of an extra 10 to 20 House seats in 2010.
Off-year elections are base mobilization elections. Have a demoralized base, and watch the seats flood away.
The base cares about the public option. This week should confirm that for even the cynical players.
Pas a bill with a robust public option or see a Speaker Boehner in January 2011.
August 21st, 2009 at 8:23 pm
I thought it was obvious from the beginning that Obama was oblivious to the needs of the people.
-Sylvia
Campanola Watches
August 21st, 2009 at 8:44 pm
Strongly agree. And I think the key word here is “unwilling.” Given that he is a very intelligent man, to many of his supporters “unwilling” signals either supreme arrogance or cowardice.
Neither is very pretty.
August 21st, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Of course Obama’s support from Dems is declining because they’re unhappy with his strategy and/or results on health care. (I imagine Gatesgate didn’t help a whole lot either, but health care is probably more important.)
This is implicit in MY’s post. You can only “wonder” with raised eyebrows why he didn’t make that point if you’re too damn lazy to read between the lines.
August 21st, 2009 at 9:32 pm
In “the grand scheme of things”, that probably means the loss of an extra 10 to 20 House seats in 2010.
Sounds unlikely to me, off the top of my head. First, out of the 2% or so of Democratic identifiers that move into the “unfavorable toward Obama” category, what percent will decide as a result to stay home rather than supporting their local Democratic candidate for the House? A lot less than 100%, I imagine. I also imagine that a disproportionate number of those voters live in districts with safe Dem seats.
Show me your math, or evidence?
August 21st, 2009 at 9:47 pm
The Democrats are on the verge of a full-scale meltdown. They never learn. It’s circular firing squads all over again. The GOP doesn’t really need to do anything except wait in the wings.
August 21st, 2009 at 9:59 pm
“The Democrats are on the verge of a full-scale meltdown. They never learn. It’s circular firing squads all over again. The GOP doesn’t really need to do anything except wait in the wings.”
Learn what? The GOP is hardly “waiting in the wings:”They’ve ebeen making up crap about “death panels” and “socialism” They have been doing their very best to make sure that the narrative is always about appeasing the right.
That’s Obama’s mistake–he was elected by the progressive left and a very large majority that was sick of the Republicans and their one-solution ineptitude. The thing to do is not to continue to appease the right in the interest of some Broder-esque fantasy of “bipartisanship. The thing to do is recognize that the voters repudiated the Republicans, handily. Pass the bill, and be brave enough to take your lumps if that’s how it plays out.
August 21st, 2009 at 10:23 pm
There’s no “circular firing squad”. There’s Obama, Rahm, Baucus et al. strafing the party’s base to please their corporate paymasters. Rahm is all about diverting corporate cash from Republican to Democratic coffers, to the exclusion of just about every other goal.
August 21st, 2009 at 11:20 pm
Folks, a president’s popularity always declines when it comes into contact with the real world of politics. That doesn’t mean “oh no the Democrats are in a meltdown.”
And the left and the center-left always snipe at each other. The last eight years were weird because we hated Bush so much that sniping sank to a minimum. But left bloggers complaining about Rahm, and Rahm accusing them of being purists, is totally normal political life. It doesn’t mean “oh no it’s circular firing squads.”
Also, while I’m at it, we’ve got another month and a half to go in the health care fight. It’s not over, and it’s premature to draw conclusions.
One final thing: the GOP’s popularity is not rising. So it’s not clear yet that there are huge electoral consequences to any of this.
I’m not saying that it’s been a great summer. I’m not saying that I’ve been impressed by the WH initiative on health care. I’m just saying: a bit of perspective, please.
August 22nd, 2009 at 2:22 am
It feels weird when I’m not the one into using the most extreme terms. I certainly agree that a great deal is being done wrong, but I don’t things are quite so written in stone as being perpetually awful yet. I mean, there’s always time, but I’m not there yet.
August 22nd, 2009 at 7:54 am
Obama did not run promising to enact his 10 trillion$$$ deficits and a government takeover of health care.
In case you have really forgotten Obama promised to be a practical centrist.
He damned HRC for wanting an individual mandate so what doesz O do? He wants TWO mandates.
He damned taxing health benefits so what does he want to do?
Why tax benefits of course.
He was going to bring home a division a month from Iraq and remind me again how many he has brought home?
His solution for Afghanistan? Why make it his very own Iraq and become a war criminal himself.
While America murders innocents with our drones Obama suns himself at a $30,000/month estate on Martha’s Vineyard.
Then read the LA times story this morning about his latest extraordinary rendition.
And then there is Guantanamo.
And illegal wiretaps.
And Abu Ghraib.
And Gay Rights.
And on and on.
Obama is the most cynical and thus most incompetent president since Harding.
And the Left is stupid enough to think that their Pork Fest of a stimulus bill proves some sort of competence?
You’ve been Jokered!
August 22nd, 2009 at 8:49 am
There are two years of Congressional debates before all the new programs settle down. Each of those two years raise the cost of unwinding bad bets, so the economy more or less waits the resolution. Hence the U shaped recovery. Eventually the economy decides to stagnate until the midterm elections.
August 22nd, 2009 at 10:20 am
Well-said JMG (2nd post).
August 22nd, 2009 at 1:28 pm
The real problem is the “progress” to date from the feckless WH has reflected the hopes and desires of one Rahm Emmanuel not the American Public at large. I strongly suspect it is he who is the “un-named source” from within the WH that said cannot understand why Obama’s left wing base is so angry at him (and I dare say ready to throw the whole batch of traitors overboard).
Obama and the dem’s rating will stop sliding, possibly even improve, when they start doing what they said they would in the campaign.
August 22nd, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Tony Coehlo to Terry McAuliffe to Rahm Emmanuel
Jimmy Carter to Bill Clinton to Barack Obama