Obama’s Approval Ratings Argue for Rapid Action on Health Care
Mark Blumenthal has a useful piece up at National Journal separating fact from fiction with regard to Barack Obama’s poll numbers:
The bottom line is that Obama remains quite popular, but his popularity is shrinking and as best one can tell the culprit is the bad economy. I think this underscores the fact that if Democratic legislative leaders are serious about reforming health care they’ll want to get as much as possible of the work done before leaving on their August recess. The unemployment rate is almost certain to be higher in four or five months than it is today and that’s very likely to weaken Obama’s ability to be an effective advocate. Conversely, the smart Republican play is to keep trying to convince Max Baucus that they’re one more week of work away from a bipartisan bill and then keep yanking the football away.
If there’s an “Obama plan” on the table in August, a lot of Republican members will be hearing mostly good things about it from their constituents. If it takes until October, they may hear different things.
31 Responses to “Obama’s Approval Ratings Argue for Rapid Action on Health Care”
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July 14th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Eh, his Gallup number bounced right back up this week. But it’s true that ANY new President’s popularity is a wasting asset.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
An effective party of the left would utilize worsening economic conditions to make an expansion of social insurance more, not less, likely to get enacted.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
The current polling evidence is equally consistent with the hypothesis that Obama’s popularity dropped a bit but then stabilized. I also think it remains uncertain how people will react once the general economy starts growing even as unemployment rates continue to rise.
That said, there is undoubtedly more downside risk than upside potential when it comes to Obama’s popularity, so I agree with the idea that the sooner the better on health care–subject to the very important qualification that a sufficiently bad deal now is worth walking away from in favor of trying again under the reconciliation process.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Steve LaBonne Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Eh, his Gallup number bounced right back up this week. But it’s true that ANY new President’s popularity is a wasting asset.
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But others trend down
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/07/13/opinion/polls/main5156648.shtml
President Obama’s approval rating has fallen six points in the past month, a new CBS News poll finds, amid growing skepticism about his handling of the economy and questions about the impact of the stimulus package.
The president’s current approval rating, which is 57 percent, is still relatively high. But it has fallen 11 points from its peak of 68 percent in April, and has also dropped since last month’s mark of 63 percent. His disapproval rating, meanwhile, has risen from 23 percent in April to 32 percent today.
The decline in support is coming not from Republicans – whose support for the president has actually risen – but from Democrats and independents. While 82 percent of Democrats still approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing, this number is down ten points from last month.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Man, what’s with the outlier on the disapproval plot? It seems someone is polling a ‘way different sample… I’m just too lazy research it.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Hmmm. Real Clear politics’s right-track wrong track numbers have diverged very sharply in the last month, when cap and trade and health care debates have heated up; so either the percolating worry about deficit/economy not improving has reached some sort of critical mass, or people are very uneasy about the direction of one or both of these debates.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
I worked hard for Obama’s election in spite of concerns that he might be too close to financial interests. It wasn’t hard to prefer him to McCain.
Now my worst fears are coming true. At every opportunity Obama sides with establishment, status-quo positions. Not really Change WE Can Believe In.
Maybe if he lived up to the hopes people had for him he would do better.
July 14th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
While saying that Obamas’ numbers have dropped due to the economy is somewhat correct, it is more likely that the promises coming out of the White House prior to the stimulus being passed have turned out to be utter crap and that people now have a less favorable view on his competence.
July 14th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Maybe if he lived up to the hopes people had for him he would do better.
Wait until the conference committee, where he’ll hopefully exercise some of his power to get this thing done and done well. If not, I’m giving up on giving this administration excuses.
July 14th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
So “rushing” to policy decisions is just fine, so long as they’re liberal policies. Right. It would be nice if we at least had time to read bills before votes, unlike what they did with the climate bill.
Why do Democrats fear having sunshine on the legislative process?
July 14th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Why do Democrats fear having sunshine on the legislative process?
Republican Congressmen aren’t going to read a 1000-page bill even if they had months to do so. That’s what their staffers are for, and the staffers already knew what was in it (hint: that 3 AM amendment was a long-discussed compromise that was already well-known). And the Republicans had decided long before the bill was ever written they were going to oppose it and they’d still do so no matter how long they have to think about it. So what’s the point? Courtesy?
And of course, we don’t even have to get into the history of the PATRIOT Act and Medicare Part-D. We both know damn well your side isn’t going to have any more sunshine the next time they get in power. It’s just one of those things the opposition party always complains about. So forgive me for not taking it too seriously.
July 14th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Campesino,
Obama’s numbers are still pretty high but nevertheless it is still a drop.
July 14th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
“Republican Congressmen aren’t going to read a 1000-page bill even if they had months to do so.”
It’s not so much the Congressman I’d like to give time to read it – it’s the public. Why can’t we take N days after a bill drops?
July 14th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
The row of much-lower approval ratings and the row of much-higher disapproval ratings are all Rasmussen polls, and Zogby internet polls.
Especially in the disapproval numbers, every else’s numbers cluster quite close together, with Zogby and Ras floating off in the either, consistently skewed from all of the other data, by the same amount, in the same direction.
Looking at the differences between Zog-mussen and everyone else, you can see that the gap in the disapproval numbers is larger than the gap in the approval numbers. This indicates that they are using, or correcting to, samples that are not just less Democratic than everyone else, but also more Republican, as opposed to independent. The dropoff in “approve” responses between Zob-mussen and everyone else is picked up much more in “disapprove” than in “don’t know/no answer.”
July 14th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
1. Gallup finds 56% support health care reform this year. 79% of dems..!
2. Obama’s numbers are always bad in the summer…because his base goes on vacation
I agree that they should move as quickly as possible because Obama has much too do and his popularity will not last forever. Best to get while the getting is good. However, economy will not be fixed overnight but I don’t think health care is particularly at risk…cap and trade will be harder and unions are at risk.
It appears to me this guy intends to get as much done now as feasibly possible. This train isn’t slowing for summer poll numbers.
July 14th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Micheline Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Campesino,
Obama’s numbers are still pretty high but nevertheless it is still a drop.
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He’s about where Bush was in July 2001, Gallup to Gallup
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx
But you have to follow the trend.
The CBS poll (among others) talks to losses among Independents. With current party identification skewed as heavily toward Independents as it is, that should be worrisome
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/party-id.php
July 14th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
It’s tough to see on the only graph that has that data, but it looks like Bush was in the low or mid 50s.
His gradual decline seems spikier than everyone else’s, and then 9/11. I’m not sure what I’m supposed to conclude from that.
July 14th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
heather Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
1. Gallup finds 56% support health care reform this year. 79% of dems..!
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Look deeper into that Gallup poll.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/121664/Majority-Favors-Healthcare-Reform-This-Year.aspx
To most people, “health care reform” means getting coverage they have now (or better)for a cheaper price. Only 42% see coverage of more people as a priority. Congress is busy trying to find ways to increase taxes to pay for more coverage. Serious disconnect there.
Also, as a national priority, most think healthcare reform is a distant third behind the economy and deficit spending.
http://pollingreport.com/prioriti.htm
July 14th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
joe from Lowell Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
He’s about where Bush was in July 2001, Gallup to Gallup
It’s tough to see on the only graph that has that data, but it looks like Bush was in the low or mid 50s.
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Much clearer in this table
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116500/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-George-Bush.aspx
Scroll down and you see on 10-11 July 2001, Approve 57% Disapprove 35%
July 14th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Not to nitpick, but the Gallup poll referred to in the National Journal piece was for the first week of July. We don’t have that week from 2001, but the previous week has Bush at 52% approve.
Again, Bush and Obama are at pretty similar levels, and showing pretty similar trends.
July 14th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
Gallup 7/11-7/13 has Obama’s approval back to 60%, FWIW. Still within the margin of error of Bush’s 2001 ratings.
July 14th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
There is really no need to mess with just Gallup when you have Pollster. You just need to use their interactive charts to look at the trend without Rasmussen–not that Rasmussen should be tossed out entirely, but for reasons discussed at Pollster, the frequency of his polls and notable house effect tend to wag around the end of the trend in ways that have no actual significance.
Anyway, do that and you will see that there was a slight reduction in Obama’s popularity starting around the start of May, but the trend appears to have leveled off starting around the middle of June.
July 14th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
To talk of people becoming disillusioned with Obama without discussing his embrace of Bush’s security/secrecy/civil rights positions seems to miss a large point.
The idea that we have a president who believes he can pre-emptively and indefinitely detain anyone he wishes, even after they’ve possibly been cleared of charges by a trial – and this guy has ANY support at all just points to how completely awful the Repubs are, and how low a bar progressives are willing to set.
July 14th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
The poll asked if you want a health care bill passed this year….and the majority said YES. We may differ on what we want the bill to say but most of us want health care reform passed this year! This is wind at Obama’s back.
July 14th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
No, it really doesn’t miss any point. Obama remains exceedingly popular among self-described liberals, and in fact Gallup has his approval among that group actually increasing since January.
“Liberals who disapprove of Obama” make up a trivial percentage of the population (perhaps around 2% total) and “liberals who formerly approved of Obama but now disapprove because of his stances on civil liberties” are almost certainly a small fraction of that 2%.
Although one might get a the impression from reading certain blogs that there’s been a significant liberal backlash against Obama, in the real world that supposed backlash doesn’t even register.
July 14th, 2009 at 11:36 pm
Yeah, N, I’m quite aware that “Liberals” (media synonym for Democrats) are willing to sell their civil rights for the promise of health care. Saddening. I was thinking more along the line of independents, specifically independent progressives.
July 15th, 2009 at 12:48 am
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July 15th, 2009 at 1:32 am
Uh, no – “liberal” is not a synonym for “Democrat,” and “independent” is not an alternative to “liberal.”
You’re mixing up terms from two different categories. Liberal vs. moderate vs. conservative is a measure of ideology, while Democrat vs. Republican vs. Independent is a measure of partisan identity. Gallup (like all other pollsters) measures them separately.
You might want to develop a basic familiarity with US public opinion and the study of it before opining on the reasons for Obama’s declining approval rates.
July 15th, 2009 at 8:49 am
You’re off on a tangent, N, and I’m sorry I distracted you. The truth is Obama’s popularity has gone down, the question is why. I know, personally, it was because of his policy on torture, detention, etc. That wasn’t even mentioned in the article and I found that deficient.
You brought in the label “liberal” and said that they all still love Obama, and we got off track from there. Back to the point his popularity with the nation as a whole has suffered a little and a possible point might be his unfathomable adoption of the Bush/Cheney theory of detention, torture, secrecy, etc.
On a side note, the idea that Liberal and Democrat aren’t used as synonyms by much of the nation is absurd on it’s face. Have you not listened to popular talk radio?
July 15th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Of course, so far Obama has shown exactly zero leadership on the issue. He hasn’t even sat down with members of his own party to try to end inter-Democrat squabbles. He appears to prefer to sit on his ass and wait for a bill to appear. That’s a recipe for all the Senate Sun Kings to come out of the woodwork and demonstrate their bona fides as potential presidential material.