Matthew Yglesias » Many Large Cities Report Crime Decline

Jul 20th, 2009 at 3:14 pm

Many Large Cities Report Crime Decline

I’ve noted previously that murder is on the decline in 2009 for the District of Columbia, and today’s Post brings the news that the tend seems to be going national:

Violent crime has plummeted in the Washington area and in major cities across the country, a trend criminologists describe as baffling and unexpected. The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides.

In his excellent forthcoming book on crime Mark Kleiman makes the point that it’s much easier for a law enforcement system to be effective when there’s relatively little crime. With few people committing offenses, it’s pretty easy to monitor crime hotspots and to deploy swift and effective punishment. And because it’s pretty easy to capture offenders and punishment for offenses is likely to be swift and effective, people tend to be deterred from committing crimes. Which makes enforcement easier which makes crime decline which makes enforcement easier and on and on and on.

In other words, there’s at least some reason to expect that the past 15 years’ worth of success at better controlling crime in many of America’s major cities will just have a lot of momentum that can carry us forward even through unfavorable labor market conditions.

Comments
44

Filed under: Crime, DC,

44 Responses to “Many Large Cities Report Crime Decline”

Rich in PA Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Obviously guns are getting too expensive.
Sycophant of the Bourgeois Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
As private protection expands and reduces crime, government and police although not really doing anything differently will ultimately take credit.

This has been the case for the last 30 years.
HaHaHa Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
#2
Whatever you say, Running Dog.
Willie Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
As private protection expands and reduces crime, government and police although not really doing anything differently will ultimately take credit.

This has been the case for the last 30 years.

Was this the case during the parts of “the last 30 years” when crime rates were going up?
Willie Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Ugh. I should have read your name. Well played good sir.
Benny Lava Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Not too surprising, when you look at the numbers. Once cities started to empty out in the late 50s and early 60s, the violent crime rate started to jump. During the 90s the reverse happened and in many cities the exodus terminated or reversed, and LO AND BEHOLD the violent crime rate dropped. Washington DC is looking at the first population increase since the 1950 census.

So which came first, the drop in crime or the increase in population? And which came first, the spike in crime or the decrease in population?
fostert Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Big jump in arson. Hmmmm. One way to cope with a failing business is to burn it down and collect the insurance. It seems people might be taking that option. Unfortunately for them, the police and insurance companies have become quite good at such investigations. But if your business failed and you are losing your house, maybe being in jail for arson isn’t so bad. Free room and board at least.
Willie Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Washington DC is looking at the first population increase since the 1950 census.

Isn’t this evidence that the crime rate reduction isn’t just about population changes? After all, this isn’t the first year crime has gone down in DC since 1950.
StevenAttewell Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
What I find odd about this chart (not the murder, that’s great news) is that robbery is up, but burglary is down, and theft is up while auto theft is down. Now I would expect in a bad recession for all forms of property crime to go up, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Obviously, this is hard to parse unless one can tell the difference between these crimes (I’m guessing that robbery is sticking someone up, but burglary is busting into a house, but then what’s theft? Auto theft is fairly obvious).

So what’s going on?
DanF Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Lead amelioration programs and reductions in violent crime:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/07/AR2007070701073.html

Interesting read.
MaximusNYC Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
If Obama is supposed to be responsible when the stock market has a bad day, can he get credit for this too?
ron Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
A chart of crime rates along with the population of 15 to 25 yo males would be instructive.
Vermont Devil Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Maybe the writers of Freakanomics are right about crime and abortion.
fostert Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
“So what’s going on?”

Auto theft going down is pretty obvious. Many auto thefts are done by professionals who strip the cars and sell the parts. With car sales down, the market for stolen auto parts is down as well. Burglary is harder to explain. Maybe it’s just that with more people unemployed, people are home more often. So there are fewer opportunities.
R. Howe Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Hope begets patience
joe from Lowell Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
As private protection expands and reduces crime, government and police although not really doing anything differently will ultimately take credit.

This has been the case for the last 30 years.

My home town saw the largest drop in crime of any city in America during the 1990s. There is virtually no “private protection” in this city – Lowell’s a real city, you see, not some soulless collection of gated subdivisions. There was, however, a radical concept called “community policing” invented here.

Oh, and a whole lot of money spent on lead paint reduction, fwiw.
yep Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
I don’t know the answer to this, but as more rich folks move into the big city, and poorer parts become more hipsterish, maybe the crime’s just moving to inner ring suburbs?
Noah Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
I wonder if there’s any difference in the racial breakdown. Maybe Obama’s election convinced a lot of formerly disaffected black people that the country is on their side, thus reducing black crime disproportionately?

A lot of it could also just be that the 2007 oil spike and the shift in focus of a lot of government-assisted housing programs toward poverty dispersion is causing urban gentrification.
Willie Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
I don’t know the answer to this, but as more rich folks move into the big city, and poorer parts become more hipsterish, maybe the crime’s just moving to inner ring suburbs?

FBI stats suggest that the reduction in crime is nation wide and not confined to large cities.

Nationwide, violent crime fell 3.5 percent and property crime 2.5 percent during the first six months of the year; the full 2008 report will be available in the fall.

Each of the specific crimes measured by the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program—murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson—decreased during the first half of 2008 as compared to the same time frame in 2007.
Conan Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
It’s probably down because of all the “criminals” this country has deported.
Jake Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
Does the data really oppose the theory that crime depends on the state of the economy? Property crime is more or less flat, while violent crime is significantly down. That’s consistent with a universal anti-crime trend (improved policing, changes in demographics, glowing waves of Obama-induced benevolence) combined with a economy-related pro-economic-crime trend.
Sycophant of the Bourgeois Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
A 1970 estimate put the number of privately employed security personnel in the United States at roughly equal to the number of government, or public, police. Since then, public police employment, unlike private security employment, has not changed much. In 1990 there were roughly 2.5 private security personnel (about 1.5 million total) to every public police officer. This ratio is rapidly approaching 3 to 1, if it has not already reached that level. Thus, in 1990 an estimated $52 billion was spent for private security services in the United States compared to about $30 billion for federal, state, and local police.

You think I’m making this shit up?
Willie Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
22:
From the article which you copied without linking:

Crime rates have actually been trending down since 1980 (after fluctuating through the 1970s) except for the upturn in 1985-91, during a dramatic change in criminal-justice policy nationwide.2 There were 5,950 reported crimes per 100,000 population in 1980 versus 5,175.3 in 1984.

The article claims that the downward trend in crime began in the 80s but then admits that crime increased for 5 of the 10 years in the eighties.

The article also begins with this:

Why? Politicians have ready answers. They claim credit through their support of prison construction, longer mandated sentences, greater police funding, and so on. They also claim credit for the strong economy and low levels of unemployment, which reduce the incentives to commit property crimes. Police point to their efforts in the war on drugs or to innovations in policing strategies such as “community policing.” Criminologists cite many of these same causes, along with the changing age distribution of the population: the number of crime-prone young males has been shrinking thanks to aging and reduced birth rates.

No doubt many and probably all of these things work together to help explain falling crime rates, but there is another, perhaps even more important factor that has gone largely unnoticed. Private citizens have responded to the fear of crime by investing increasing amounts of their own time and money in crime prevention.

emphasis mine.

Seems like pretty weak tea to me, and nowhere as definitive as your claims.
Sycophant of the Bourgeois Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Crime in America has fallen since 1991. In that year, the reported crime rate compiled in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program peaked at 5,897.8 per 100,000 population. Then it dropped almost continuously, reaching 4,922.7 in 1997. Preliminary statistics for 1998 indicate a 7 percent drop below the ‘97 figure. (Monthly statistics suggest that the trend continued in 1999.)

Why? Politicians have ready answers. They claim credit through their support of prison construction, longer mandated sentences, greater police funding, and so on. They also claim credit for the strong economy and low levels of unemployment, which reduce the incentives to commit property crimes. Police point to their efforts in the war on drugs or to innovations in policing strategies such as “community policing.” Criminologists cite many of these same causes, along with the changing age distribution of the population: the number of crime-prone young males has been shrinking thanks to aging and reduced birth rates.

No doubt many and probably all of these things work together to help explain falling crime rates, but there is another, perhaps even more important factor that has gone largely unnoticed. Private citizens have responded to the fear of crime by investing increasing amounts of their own time and money in crime prevention.

Private-sector responses to crime have taken many forms, including crime watch and other types of neighborhood or building watching, patrolling and escort arrangements, installation of alarms and other detection devises, improved locks and lighting, investments in self-protection such as martial-arts training and guns, and employment of private security personnel. All these activities have been increasing dramatically as crime rates have fallen. Information on these activities is relatively scarce, but a number of studies conducted over the years give some indication of the trends.1 Consider private security markets, for example.

Crime rates have actually been trending down since 1980 (after fluctuating through the 1970s) except for the upturn in 1985-91, during a dramatic change in criminal-justice policy nationwide.2 There were 5,950 reported crimes per 100,000 population in 1980 versus 5,175.3 in 1984.

Private security employment has accelerated since 1970. A 1970 estimate put the number of privately employed security personnel in the United States at roughly equal to the number of government, or public, police. Since then, public police employment, unlike private security employment, has not changed much. In 1990 there were roughly 2.5 private security personnel (about 1.5 million total) to every public police officer.3 This ratio is [p. 23] rapidly approaching 3 to 1, if it has not already reached that level.4 Thus, in 1990 an estimated $52 billion was spent for private security services in the United States compared to about $30 billion for federal, state, and local police.5

The private security market apparently is the second fastest growing industry in the United States,6 but increasing employment of private security personnel is only part of the story. Going back to 1970 again, a study found that the use of security equipment was increasing at about 11 percent per year,7 but the growth rate in expenditures on security equipment reached an estimated 15 percent in 1990 when they rose to an estimated $17 billion.8

Provision of residential alarm systems (already the most frequently used component of security programs for business) provides one example of the spread of such security technology. It is estimated that at least 10 percent of the homes in the United States were connected to central alarm systems in 1990,9 up from one percent in 1970.10 One estimate by Leading Edge Reports suggests that total sales of central alarm station services rose by 36.9 percent (from $5.26 million to $7.20 million) between 1987 and 1989 (during the upsurge in the war on drugs).11

While statistics are not readily available, it appears that this trend has accelerated through the 1990s. But these services are only one of many aspects of the security market that rely on technology rather than or in addition to manpower. Electronic access control equipment sales grew by an estimated 23 percent between 1987 and 1989, while increases in sales of electronic intrusion detection equipment, vehicle protection equipment, and closed-circuit television (CCTV) were 21, 44, and 25 percent respectively, and growth rates for sales of metal detectors, x-ray devices, computer security equipment, electronic article surveillance equipment, and other types of security technology are all comparable.12

Better Technology

It is not just numbers and expenditures that are rising. Both increasingly sophisticated labor and capital are being combined to produce ever higher levels of security where it is demanded. The last three to four decades have witnessed dramatic changes in security technology, with the arrival of CCTV, microwave detection systems, portable radios and cameras, magnetic sensors, and laser technology, to name a few. And all these technologies are constantly being improved; devices that were on the cutting edge only a short time ago are obsolete. As a salesman explained to me, firms have to continue to improve products because thieves figure out how to circumvent security devices. Beyond that, they have to keep pace with new and vigorous competition.

Training for security personnel has had to improve dramatically to take advantage of the new technologies. Security personnel still include minimum-wage night watchmen, the stereotypical security from the 1950s and 1960s. But they also include highly trained and skilled electronic-security experts and security-design consultants, thanks to a growing demand for detection and deterrent equipment and price-cutting technological advances.

Given the demand for security and the increasing sophistication of many security personnel, it should not be surprising that entrepreneurs are discovering ways to supply a package of services that add up to more secure environments. Residential and business developments are increasingly being designed with security in mind. Enclosed malls and office complexes are attractive to businesses for many reasons, but security generally is part of the contract.

Apartments and condominiums often operate in a similar fashion. Such arrangements are apparently attractive: an estimated 24 million Americans lived in locked condominiums, apartment complexes, and cooperatives in 1997.13 Private residential communities, consisting of large numbers of single- and/or multiple-family homes on private streets, are increasingly being developed with security as a selling point. A 1997 estimate put the number of people in some 30,000 “gated” communities at around eight million, with a half-million in California alone.14 [p. 24]

The Results

Studies of the consequences of private-sector crime control activities are rare, but several informative ones exist. A study done in the mid-1980s examined the activities and consequences of the private security force in Starrett City, a 153-acre complex in a high-crime area of Brooklyn, with 56 residential buildings containing 5,881 apartments and about 20,000 racially and ethnically diverse but largely middle-income residents.15 Starrett City had only 6.57 reported crimes per 1,000 population, compared to 49.86 for the 75th precinct in which Starrett City is located. This is all the more remarkable, considering that Starrett City residents are much more likely to actually report crimes to their security personnel than citizens in general are. (Victimization surveys indicate that more than 60 percent of crimes with victims go unreported.16)

Similar results appear elsewhere. For instance, one of the most intriguing cooperative privatization schemes in recent history is in St. Louis and University City, Missouri.17 In 1982 the St. Louis metropolitan area had more than 427 private street-providing organizations.18 The titles to these formerly public streets are now vested in incorporated street associations to which all property owners must belong and pay dues. The street associations, most of which own one or two blocks, have the right to close their streets to through-traffic to limit cars to those of residents and their visitors. More important, ownership gives the neighborhood a high degree of cohesiveness, and the resulting cooperative behavior produces an increased awareness of activities on the streets. That along with limited access and, in a few cases, security patrols significantly lowered crime in virtually every category relative to comparable public streets. For instance, Ames Place’s crime rate was 108 percent lower than the adjacent public street.19

Smaller scale private security arrangements are also effective. Critical Intervention Services (CIS) provides private security to landlords who own apartment complexes priced to attract low-income tenants. Since CIS began offering service in Tampa, Florida, in 1991, it has received many more requests than it can serve, but it has expanded into Miami, Jacksonville, and Orlando. Revenues grew from $35,000 to roughly $2 million in 1996. The firm provided security for 50 apartment complexes that year, and crime dropped by an average of 50 percent.20

Private security and protection arrangements also can have a general deterrence effect. A 1996 analysis of Lojack, a hidden radio transmitter installed in cars to aid in recovery after theft, concluded that a 1 percentage point increase in installations is associated with a 20 percent decline in auto thefts in large cities and a 5 percent reduction in the rest of the state.21

Lojack greatly reduces the expected loss for car owners who use it, since 95 percent of the cars equipped are recovered, compared to 60 percent for cars without it. But this direct benefit is only part of the total benefit. Because a potential car thief does not know if a vehicle is protected by Lojack, its existence in a market creates uncertainty that deters auto thefts. According to the study, “Lojack appears to be one of the most cost-effective crime reduction approaches documented in the literature, providing a greater return than increased police, prisons, job programs, or early education interventions.”22 A recent extensive study of concealed handguns reaches similar conclusions; violent crimes, including murder, rape, and robbery, are significantly deterred when potential criminals know that citizens may carry concealed handguns.23

Public vs. Private Police

A comprehensive 1992 statistical study used data from 124 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas in an effort to analyze the effect of both public police and private security on the overall safety of communities and on decision-making by offenders.24 The addition of public police showed no statistically significant deterrence, but the result of private security was significant. Additional private security personnel correlated with less crime, suggesting that the benefits spill over into the community at large.

Public police may not like this finding, but they are increasingly recognizing its validity as they turn to “community policing” arrangements. In Chicago, for instance, the police department is implementing a massive change in its policing strategy, abandoning the “traditional” model of policing that relies on random automobile patrols, rapid response, forensic technology in after-the-crime investigations rather than citizen information, and a focus on arrest and incarceration.25 The new Chicago Alternative Policing Strategy emphasizes the need for community involvement in a “proactive” effort to prevent crime. While the program is relatively new, the intentions are to help develop local citizen and business crime-watch groups and to put public police back on the beat in large part to establish cooperative relationships with the people in neighborhoods. This is what private security often does. In fact, noted criminologist Lawrence Sherman defines community policing as police acting like security guards. So another consequence of the growing private response to crime is that it is providing public police with an alternative model.26

A massive 1976 report by the National Advisory Commission on Criminal Justice Standards and Goals concluded that “the private security industry . . .offers a potential for coping with crime that can not be equaled by any other remedy or approach . . .Not represented on the boards or staffs of State Planning Agencies, rarely used by municipal or county planners, only infrequently consulted by elected officials, [this] . . . industry [has] crime prevention answers desperately needed by homes, schools, businesses, neighborhoods and communities.”27 Even though politicians have rarely recognized, and crime researchers are only beginning to recognize, how accurate this study’s conclusion is, private citizens clearly know it already. The results are becoming increasingly apparent. They and the private entrepreneurs who respond to their demands deserve much of the credit for falling crime rates, despite the politicians’ assertions that they are responsible.
Sycophant of the Bourgeois Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Discussing 1985 – 1990

The upsurge in crime during this period resulted from a rapid shift for public police and prisons from property and violent crimes to drug crimes; fewer police were available to deter nondrug crimes, and prison crowding increased as drug criminals flowed in, forcing the early release of nondrug criminals; responses by the private sector and by legislators (for example, prison building) took time. Thus the general downward trend was not re-established until 1991.
Fencedude Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
I think that “Not as stupid as Sycophant” screen name someone suggested a few days ago is probably a good idea.
joe from Lowell Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
A 1970 estimate put the number of privately employed security personnel in the United States at roughly equal to the number of government, or public, police. Since then, public police employment, unlike private security employment, has not changed much. In 1990 there were roughly 2.5 private security personnel (about 1.5 million total) to every public police officer.

So, the crime rate skyrocketed during a 20-year period when “privately employed security personnel” more than doubled.

No, I don’t think you’re making this up. I think you’re wrong.
Kyle Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Auto theft going down is pretty obvious. Many auto thefts are done by professionals who strip the cars and sell the parts. With car sales down, the market for stolen auto parts is down as well. Burglary is harder to explain. Maybe it’s just that with more people unemployed, people are home more often. So there are fewer opportunities.

All else being equal, shouldn’t a decrease in auto sales cause an increase in auto thefts? After all, a 1993 Ford Explorer is going to need more replacement parts than a brand new 2009 Ford Explorer.

Also, with a bad economy, shouldn’t there be more people looking to save money by buying black market parts for their car?

Kyle
No as dumb Fenecedude or joe from Lowell (who gives a fuck where you are from) Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
So you guys straight face believe that mandatory minimum sentences and throwing money at police budgets provided the large majority of improvements in crime in the last 30 years? In the face of the private market going from perhaps 10 billion to more than 300. Those people investing in private security were just completely irrational and their investments were all for naught?

There sheer idiocy required to develop the ideologies on display by you two stooges makes me truly wonder about the future of this country.
fostert Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
“After all, a 1993 Ford Explorer is going to need more replacement parts than a brand new 2009 Ford Explorer.”

True, but there are many 1993 Explorers in the junk yards. If you need a part, that’s where you’d go. The real money in stolen auto parts is in the newer parts. When you crash your new Lexus, you’ll need a new door now and can’t wait for one to show up at the junk yard. So someone steals a new Lexus and you and several other people get all the needed parts.

“shouldn’t there be more people looking to save money by buying black market parts for their car?”

Most people don’t know they’re getting stolen parts. You don’t get them at Napa or Pep Boys. You get them when you take your car into the shop and the shop buys them for your repairs. And they buy them from a fairly reputable parts dealer, who got them from a less reputable dealer, who bought them from a chop shop. But that really only applies to new parts. Parts for old cars are readily available from junk yards. It’s really the number of new cars still under warranty that determines the stolen parts market.
Kyle Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
True, but there are many 1993 Explorers in the junk yards. If you need a part, that’s where you’d go. The real money in stolen auto parts is in the newer parts.

Never having owned a car, I hadn’t thought of the junk yards as a source for spare parts. Makes sense.

It’s really the number of new cars still under warranty that determines the stolen parts market.

I thought that new cars getting repairs under warranty are getting new parts straight from the manufacturer, without the middlemen through which stolen parts can sneak in. For non-warranty repair work (i.e. the new door for the Lexus you just crashed), I now see how stolen parts find their way into the car.

Kyle
Julian Elson Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
I’m inclined to doubt the significance of the arson jump, fostert. 24 and 28 are both quite small numbers. If arson follows a Poisson distribution with a mean annual incidence of 25, then 24 and 28 are within one standard deviation (5) of each other.
fostert Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
“I thought that new cars getting repairs under warranty are getting new parts straight from the manufacturer, without the middlemen through which stolen parts can sneak in.”

Not really. Now, if you have a Mercedes, you’ll go through an authorized Mercedes repair shop. And they will almost always have parts straight from the factory. On a Lexus, not so much. You’ll probably go to a private shop for the work. They’ll take a warranty job because they know they’ll get paid by the manufacturer. That shop will look for parts online to get the best price. If you have an American car, anyone can do the work and will accept a warranty job. And the American companies will work with anyone who meets basic certification requirements. Lexus doesn’t control things like Mercedes does. They don’t need to buy fresh parts because they aren’t under a certification contract that requires them to buy new parts.

I’m familiar with this because I own a 1976 Mercedes 230. Ain’t many of those in junkyards, and there are even fewer of them to steal. I have to get factory parts for the less car-specific things. And if I need a quarter panel, I pretty much have to wait for someone to crash one without damaging the quarter panel I need. Fortunately, the 1976 model was a Frankenstein contraption that used 220 body parts, which are much easier to get than the 1977 230 body parts. But if I need a new crankshaft, I have to have it custom manufactured. I’ve been through that nightmare, and it was $8,000, which somebody else had to pay because they fucked up an oil change. And if I need a new exhaust air return rail, well, that’s not going to be easy. It will have to be custom made, but hardly anyone does that kind of work these days. It would be cheaper for me to learn inert gas welding, buy the equipment, and do it myself.
joe from Lowell Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
No as dumb Fenecedude or joe from Lowell (who gives a fuck where you are from)

joez Law of teh Internetz: When insulting someone’s intelligence in a blog comment thread, you will make a typo that makes you look like an idiot.
joe from Lowell Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
(who gives a fuck where you are from)

Anybody who cares to consider the issue of crime reduction over the past few decades, since Lowell experienced the largest reduction in crime of any city in America during the 1990s.

Sensitive little thing, aren’t you?

So you guys straight face believe that mandatory minimum sentences and throwing money at police budgets provided the large majority of improvements in crime in the last 30 years?

I will give you $1000 for every reference to mandatory minimum sentences or police budgets you can find in my comments on the thread.

To help you out, here’s what I’ve written so far, “No as dumb:”

My home town saw the largest drop in crime of any city in America during the 1990s. There is virtually no “private protection” in this city – Lowell’s a real city, you see, not some soulless collection of gated subdivisions. There was, however, a radical concept called “community policing” invented here.

Oh, and a whole lot of money spent on lead paint reduction, fwiw.

So, the crime rate skyrocketed during a 20-year period when “privately employed security personnel” more than doubled.

No, I don’t think you’re making this up. I think you’re wrong.

In the face of the private market going from perhaps 10 billion to more than 300.

There is virtually no “private security” in Lowell, the city with the largest drop in crime during the 1990s, the period when the US experienced its large drop in crime.

Those people investing in private security were just completely irrational and their investments were all for naught?

I’m sure the mall cops managed to move around crime to outside the mall.

There sheer idiocy required to develop the ideologies on display by you two stooges makes me truly wonder about the future of this country.

How would you know? You can’t even seem to repeat back to me the ideas I’ve expressed when they’re sitting on the screen in front of your eyes.
fostert Says:
July 20th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
“Lexus doesn’t control things like Mercedes does.”

Mercedes has a really old school way of doing things, but they inspire trust. Having an old car, my maintenance issues are far from normal. And most of the mechanics weren’t born when this car was built. They’ve never even seen a cartridge style oil filter. Thus, my need for a new crankshaft, among other things. Suffice it to say, my 2.3 liter engine is now about 2.5 liters and has kick ass custom machined pistons with custom fitted rings. So now the car has the custom hot rod changes it always wanted. But that car was a 1976 factory built sedan that could do 130 mph and be rock solid stable. I’ve done it, and it blew my mind. And I did it before any repairs. Now, I would have to find a track to see what it can do. I certainly don’t need more contact with the police. It also blew my mind that nobody caught me. The statute of limitations is way gone now.
Not as dumb Fenecedude or joe from Lowell (who gives a fuck where you are from) Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 12:26 am
Anybody who cares to consider the issue of crime reduction over the past few decades, since Lowell experienced the largest reduction in crime of any city in America during the 1990s.

Sensitive little thing, aren’t you?

You mentioned “community policing” which I assume involves individuals policing and reporting suspicious activity in their own neighborhoods. You do understand that this is essentially private protection? It is assumed that only the rich can afford private protection, but in fact the poor can provide the same protections by volunteering their own time which is worth less comparatively. Opportunity cost is the term, for the mentally impaired (such as yourself).

There is virtually no “private security” in Lowell, the city with the largest drop in crime during the 1990s, the period when the US experienced its large drop in crime.

You just said the mall has security. Has the security at the mall remained entirely static in this period? I’m not sure where you are going with this. It’s entirely plausible that surrounding communities used more private protections and Lowell received indirect benefits.. The spillover externalities you liberals so commonly cite as evidence that we must have government providing protection services. I’m guessing Lowell did far more than just stand idly and community watches are the large driver in increasing levels of protection as they are in most communities.
skeptonomist Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 9:23 am
There is no reason to think that the decline of crime rates is a result of better law enforcement. More likely it is due to demographic factors (e.g. Freakonomics).
mpowell Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 10:45 am
Confusing community policing with private policing seems like a mistake. Yeah, I could see where the instinct to lump them together comes from, but on important metrics they are different. First, community policing can be effective independently of income level so that’s a good thing for a progressive. Second, it doesn’t require armed private personnel, which I think most people would agree add risk in their own way. Third, it directly advocates against isolated communities, which stands in direct opposition to a significant sector of prviate security (so we have to choose which one is really effective). And fourth, community policing is a public policy that we can instruct our public officers to pursue. The policy that we would choose to encourage more private security officers would be obviously much different. As far as you are arguing with Joe, for example, lumping them together is just not sensible.
gex Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 11:05 am
One asterisk that should be added is that violence against gays has gone up.

http://www.nytimes.com/1986/11/23/us/violence-against-homosexuals-rising-groups-seeking-wider-protection-say.html?sec=health
joe from Lowell Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 11:34 am
You mentioned “community policing” which I assume involves individuals policing and reporting suspicious activity in their own neighborhoods.

Nope. “Assume” makes an ass out of you. Period.

Look it up, find out what you’re talking about, and get back to me.

Seriously, you’re holding forth on the causes of the decline in crime, and insulting other people’s knowledge and intelligence, and you don’t even know what community policing is?

I’d feel bad for you, if it weren’t for the fact that your insufferable arrogance makes your embarrassment fun to watch.

You just said the mall has security.

Lowell doesn’t have a mall. I used the “mall cop” example to make a point, which apparently eluded you, about the effect of private security on crime.

I’m not sure where you are going with this.

I believe you.

I’m guessing Lowell did far more than just stand idly and community watches are the large driver in increasing levels of protection as they are in most communities.

Yes, they did. They implemented a strategy of community policing (why don’t you look that term up?), and staffed up the number of beat cops by tapping into federal grants like the COPS program.

COPS program, “No as stupid.” Ever heard of it? Care to take a guess what the C stands for?
neff Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 12:23 pm
One asterisk that should be added is that violence against gays has gone up.

http://www.nytimes.com/1986/11/23/us/violence-against-homosexuals-rising-groups-seeking-wider-protection-say.html?sec=health

I hope President Reagan can do something to take care of that, but he might be distracted with that new Iran-Contra scandal
Sycophant of the Bourgeois Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 1:51 pm
How is this so fucking hard for you to understand. I will repeat is again community watches are private policing.

Rich people have very high opportunity cost for their time. It is better for them to hire someone else to patrol their neighborhood or watch the entrance to their property than to do it themselves.

First, community policing can be effective independently of income level so that’s a good thing for a progressive.

Poor people on the other hand (for example people from dumbfuck Lowell) don’t have particularly high opportunity cost for their time and reap larger rewards for patrolling themselves. They are still giving up a resource (their own time) in exchange for better, more focused, and more effective policing.

Both are private, and have provided a much larger decrease in crime than police departments and legislative mandates.

Second, it doesn’t require armed private personnel, which I think most people would agree add risk in their own way.

Less than 10% of private security guards are armed. Most have no more power than that of simple citizens arrest. Shootings per confrontation in private security are an order of magnitude less common than among public police.
Cooper Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 6:25 pm
I blame our new President and role model.

Matt Yglesias

Many Large Cities Report Crime Decline

44 Responses to “Many Large Cities Report Crime Decline”

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