Hollinger Makes the Case for Artest
I expressed some doubts as to whether exchanging Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest really makes the Lakers better. John Hollinger makes the case that he is:
At small forward, L.A. mostly needs a floor spacer, and as far as floor-spacing ability goes, Artest is superior to Ariza — he shot 39.9 percent on 3s last season, Ariza 31.9 percent. [...] Overall, Artest isn’t as efficient as Ariza offensively because he tends to force terrible shots, but that’s likely to be less of a problem in a system in which he’s the fourth option behind Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Additionally, he’s a good passer who might see his assist rate bump significantly in L.A.
Basically the conjecture here is that rather than play in LA as he played in Houston (a guy who shoots more than Ariza, but does so less efficiently), Artest will start playing like a different guy who shoots less, but takes most of his shots in the form of highly efficient three pointers. Hollinger also says that Artest’s inferiority as a rebounder will be compensated for by his superiority as an on-the-ball defender.
Neither argument strikes me as clearly wrong, but I don’t think either is clearly correct. At the end of the day, the facts that Ariza is younger and less crazy seem like controlling tie-breakers to me.
39 Responses to “Hollinger Makes the Case for Artest”
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July 3rd, 2009 at 2:36 pm
I can’t believe anyone could think (let alone be dumb enough to publish, twice) Artest isn’t an upgrade over Ariza.
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:39 pm
I think the main point of this deal is salary cap related. Ariza wanted more than the mid-level exception, whereas Artest is fine with it. This frees up cap room for other players.
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
“At the end of the day, the facts that Ariza is younger and less crazy seem like controlling tie-breakers to me.”
The likelihood that Artest will provide a real boost on the defensive end that plays out in such a way that’ll leave Kobe more energy to expend on offense is the real tie-breaker, if one is silly enough to consider this a tie in the first place…
—–
“I can’t believe anyone could think (let alone be dumb enough to publish, twice) Artest isn’t an upgrade over Ariza.”
Matty believes he can scout hoops entirely by the stat sheet, despite all the evidence that this is a bootless strategy.
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Artest isn’t a bad move in terms of team chemistry if you take into account the difficulty of repeating as champions. I think the second Jordan run in Chicago taught Phil Jackson that great players need new challenges to keep themselves on an elite edge. Playing aside Ron Ron is a new challenge for Kobe.
Artest is going to cause trouble with Kobe but Hollinger is crazy if he thinks Artest is going to naturally see himself as an inferior offensive option to Gasol and Bynum and that is where the problems will come. If Artest starts channelling Tex Winter and Big Chief Triangle it’s a great deal but that’s not a sure thing to say the least.
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
andrew Says:
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:39 pm
I think the main point of this deal is salary cap related. Ariza wanted more than the mid-level exception, whereas Artest is fine with it. This frees up cap room for other players.
You really ought to know what the MLE is before posting about it.
The MLE is only for teams that are either already over the cap or would be put over the cap with the signing the MLE is used for.
July 3rd, 2009 at 2:56 pm
I mean, seriously, the only issue here is whether or not PJ and Kobe can get Ron-Ron to accept his role.
If that gets answered affirmatively, this is an incredibly lopsided “trade” to the Lakers advantage. Trevor could end up having a wonderful career, and this still gives the Lakers more shots at rings over the next three years, which is all that matters in their planning.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Look, I’m a Lakers fanatic, so can tell you with full aplomb, Ron Artest makes us better, bigger, tougher, and also makes more likely that Lamar Odom returns, which is the thing we have to do.
Also, it’s not just about offensive efficiency, we know we’re going to be in the deeper regions of the playoffs, chasing history and dynasty, Ron gives us the physical defensive presence we need against Bron and Paul Pierce, bottom line.
Now, even though I’ve resisted the notion, Kobe chases GOAT, and the Lakers chase dynasty.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:14 pm
By the way, some of what I heard today, need to double check and do due diligence first, but we may need to change approach on Iran, to isolation. I do not respect fiction being painted as fact.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Matt is letting his Kobe/Laker hatred (not to mention his stat crunching) get the best of him yet again? Artest is clearly an upgrade over Ariza. The fact that this is obviously the case despite Ron being crazy and older than Trevor just points to how much he will offer on the court in terms of letting Kobe rest on defense and locking up the likes of a LeBron in next year’s playoffs.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Love Ariza’s game, have since he was a Knick and with the Magic, and he played well in the Finals …
However … Artest is a unique talent, a lockdown defender and more importantly, he addresses the one weakness of last year’s champions …
What was the Laker’s weakness? Complacency … they phoned it in too often and it very nearly cost them (in fact, had they faced the Cavs rather than the Magic, I may have given the edge to the Cavs) several times.
With Ariza they were a great team, deserving their championship, but they admittedly got lackadasical.
Ron Ron, for all his faults with regard to focus, is NEVER complacent and never lakadasical … he competes in every game like it was his last and hates, hates, hates losing (I remember him tearing up a Knicks corridor when he was a Bull and they lost to the Knicks during a regular season game that meant nothing in the long run. Ron. Hates. Losing. A lot. At any game.
Ron addresses their biggest weakness last year, complacency, he can do was Ariza can do on the court, if not better, so it was an upgrade of considerable merit.
You think there aren’t GMs out there moaning in pain that their team will have to face Bryant, Ariza, Gasol and Byrnum? Not to mention Odom, who they’ll probably keep.
They’re not happy, and they remember what happened with Rodman, who they thought couldn’t be focused by anyone.
BTW, I know I spelled lackadasical wrong, but I like the way my version looks so I’m keeping it.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:22 pm
The problem with the idea of Artest accepting his role is that through all of his career he has been a high usage player. Chicago, Indiana, Sacramento, Houston, in all of those places Artest has used between 21% and 24% of the team possesions. Ariza only used 16% of team possesions and that possesions come from somewhere. Now, Artest has never played with someone like Kobe or for a coach like Jackson, so maybe he accepts it now, but it’s a big gamble.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:22 pm
If they keep Odom, then the Lakers have a really versatile lineup. Odom can play either forward position and Artest can play SG or SF, whereas Ariza was more of a forward. This gives them even more options when constructing their lineup: Gasol, Odom, Artest, Kobe, PG? Or, Bynum, Gasol, Odom, Artest/Kobe, PG? Those are nice options to have. They obviously need some pick up at the PG position – Fisher is nearing the finish line and Farmar is incosistent.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:28 pm
How does adding Ron-Ron to the team enable Kobe to chase GOAT? He is/was/forever will be a pretender to the throne.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Kobe is no pretender, he will soon enter legit GOAT discussion, though Mike is still the guy.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Yeah, I’m with Josh this is a pretty open and shut case for Artest. Ariza is nice and he helped us tremendously, but he didn’t really come on until the playoffs and a lot of his stuff stemmed from doubles on Kobe and Pau. Artest is just as good from 3 and on D.
k1
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:37 pm
The analysis of this trade on Yahoo! sports is pretty good and underscores what I think is another reason for the trade. The Lakers can’t let agents of their mid-tier players get out of line like Ariza’s agent did. Pulling the trigger on this trade sends a message to agent that will help them in the long run: Be happy your role player is in LA, and take what we offer.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:41 pm
“Kobe is no pretender, he will soon enter legit GOAT discussion”
Soon? Kobe is not statistically equal to Jordan and has now won a grand total of ONE championship as the best guy on his own team. No GOAT talk is allowed until Kobe wins at least two more titles.
Mike
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:44 pm
“Yeah, I’m with Josh this is a pretty open and shut case for Artest.”
Only if you ignore Artest being crazy and that he’s taken over a thousand shots a season for the last 3 years. For this to work, Artest is going to have to play a significantly different role with the Lakers than he was for the last 5 or 6 years of his career. It could happen, but it’s not a sure thing.
Mike
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Artest is an infinitely better defender than Ariza. Not quite as good offensively but that won’t be an issue. He is good enough and the money they save can go towards another good player. Ariza had one good post season and he is looking to cash in, as he should, but someone (Houston) is going to overpay him.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Like I said, “soon” Kobe will enter the discussion, after we win at least several more titles, doesn’t concern me that haters or skeptics are introducing arguments I’ve already considered and integrated.
Also, along the Iran lines, maybe I’m jumping the gun, we just need to keep competing with these losers, their fictional system of insisting on fantasy is a joke, and has no real world potential.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Oh, and Matt, Ron Artest is far better than Ariza offensively, especially with Phil Jackson coaching him (look for Ron in the post, not just the spot up J).
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:52 pm
“Only if you ignore Artest being crazy and that he’s taken over a thousand shots a season for the last 3 years. For this to work, Artest is going to have to play a significantly different role with the Lakers than he was for the last 5 or 6 years of his career. It could happen, but it’s not a sure thing.”
No one’s denying that he’s a loose cannon who likes to shoot, but the idea that he’ll take on a different role that fits him well is specifically why I think the Lakers took him … they know what they want him to do and, I believe, Ron knows what they want him to do …
He can shoot, he can score, he can make headlines, but what Ron really wants to do is win. They know that. He knows that.
And he and Kobe know each other well, play together in the off-season, there’s a mutual respect.
Nothing is ever certain, but I’m sure that Ron knows what he’s going to the Lakers to do (and I believe he knew what he was going to the Rockets to do and proved it up until the other two stars got injured) …
I think Ron knows what his role will be and is licking his chops at the thought. He gets to mess with the head of opposing star (whomever it will be) until they crack, hit the open three, of which there will be many, and win.
The Lakers could have had any number of people (Shawn Marion?) who play that part, but they wanted Ron because of what he’ll be willing to do for the team.
I think Ron knows his role much better than Shaq will … I love the Cavs, I’m rooting for them this year, but I’m telling you, this trade just made the Lakers much more dangerous than the Cavs trade for Shaq.
Cavs aren’t done, of course … I think they’ll pick up another piece or two yet.
Both teams, Lakers and Cavs, could use Jason Kidd …
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:54 pm
Mike, nothing in life is a sure thing, but putting Ron Artest on the Lakers is about as sure a thing as you can get, in terms of tough defense, and projecting to dealing with Bron and Pierce, not to mention just plain savvy in grabbing a guy undervalued in a buyer’s market.
July 3rd, 2009 at 3:58 pm
I’m guessing they’ll sign Shannon Brown, who looks like he’ll be pretty good.
Sasha Vujacic deal is kind of ugly, though. I bet Kupchak wishes he could do that over.
July 3rd, 2009 at 4:02 pm
I don’t understand why people are so concerned about Artest playing the right role here. Sure he’s a little crazy, but the teams he’s been on recently sucked. I think he can deal with taking 20% fewer shots. And he is exactly the kind of guy who will translate well to taking high efficiency open jump shots with the occasional post up or drive since he is a better shooter than Ariza by the numbers (FT% and 3P%).
On defense there is no comparison since Ariza, while crafty, just doesn’t stand a chance against Pierce or LeBron which have to be LA’s primary concerns.
Finally, age is irrelevant. The Lakers have a 3 year time window. Artest is 29, which is perfect. After 3 years they can resign him or not as they figure out how to rebuild the team around Bynum and a decling Bryant/Gasol. Ariza’s contract would have made it that much more difficult to sign a big name free agent down the road, which they may have to do if they want to avoid serious rebuilding.
I’m glad to see MY at least reconsidering his silly initial position. It’s too bad it took Hollinger to do it since plenty of his commenters already made precisely the same points. The only real risk here is if Ariza turns into a legitimate all-star (which is extremely unlikely). Failing to offer a 5yr, MLE type contract to a standard NBA starter (who is your 5th best player) is hardly a big loss.
July 3rd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
We would have given Trev a 5 year MLE deal too, his agent just painted that as an insult, so we moved on.
July 3rd, 2009 at 4:25 pm
26: Perhaps so. Since that’s what he ended up signing for, I figured LA was offering him fewer years, but maybe they just screwed up the negotiations.
July 3rd, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Does anyone see this move as some kind of attempt to toughen LA? Pretty much everyone agrees that last year Boston man-handled LA because LA generally plays like school girls, and doesn’t like to get dirty. Having Artest gives them a kind of enforcer that they didn’t have before, and didn’t need against the incredibly soft Orlando team.
July 3rd, 2009 at 5:04 pm
We probably would have given him 5-6 years, but I don’t understand why Trevor would demand that, considering he has yet to reach his ceiling as a player, and this is a really down market. Three years would have been perfect for him, especially with us (champion Lakers), as far as dialing up his value, so it makes me wonder if he was worried about cashing in now due to injury concerns, in which case we wouldn’t want him for 5-6 years if he was risky like that.
The case goes round and round, but bottom line is that Trevor could have been back with the Lakers, just not with the terms his agent was demanding, and once we moved to take Artest, there was no going back.
July 3rd, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Everyone loves talking about how Boston “manhandled” the Lakers, but I’ve always considered this the most fradulent analysis. Very shallow. It wasn’t the Lakers being pushed around that caused them to lose a 24+ point lead in LA, which is the only reason we didn’t go back to Boston with a 3-2 lead. I mean, c’mon, even after the Lakers lost the 24 point lead, we still defended home court in Game 5 and took the series back to Boston 2-3, we weren’t getting beat up until Game 6. Hell, we had a chance to win both Game 1 and 2 too, in Boston, and this with Lamar Odom in foul trouble over questionable touch calls, so to say we were outmatched or getting beat up is stupid.
Sure, Pau is a finesse player, he is what he is, but that doesn’t mean he’s not tough to play against, and Lamar Odom is one of the toughest guys in the league, even though he’s a finesse player himself, but Lamar’s kryptonite is KG, that’s the perfect matchup to put on LO, the one guy in this league who can really make things difficult for him, though I would say the refs were Lamar’s toughest matchup in Boston for the first two games of that series.
July 3rd, 2009 at 5:53 pm
He’s far from my favorite player, but for me the key to this deal is now Odom. Keep him and the Lakers, with the addition of Artest, have a very deep and strong core. Lose him and, even with the addition of Artest, the Lakers take a step backwards.
For Laker haters like me the only hope if LA keeps Odom is that Artest really does screw up the triangle (I think it’s unlikely with Jackson at the helm they won’t be able to accommodate Artest in their scheme), or that Artest stabs Kobe in a practice incident.
July 3rd, 2009 at 5:57 pm
It wasn’t the Lakers being pushed around that caused them to lose a 24+ point lead in LA,
Well, then what was it?
I mean, c’mon, even after the Lakers lost the 24 point lead, we still defended home court in Game 5
Who’s we? Are you a Laker?
I would say the refs were Lamar’s toughest matchup in Boston for the first two games of that series.
Please. Los Angeles has never participated in a finals series when they didn’t have officials who worshiped purple and gold.
July 3rd, 2009 at 7:42 pm
Jasper, you’re kinda funny, and yes, I am a diehard, lifetime Lakers fan, so it’s “we”.
July 3rd, 2009 at 8:33 pm
forget the offensive stats, artest is all about defense…that’s where he’s always made his mark and there’s no denying he’s an upgrade in that department. if the lakers play the cavs, artest can cover lebron, well. ariza can’t.
July 4th, 2009 at 12:39 am
I’m trying to imagine a coach who would prefer the Lakers with Artest to the Lakers with Ariza. I’m having a hard time.
July 4th, 2009 at 12:40 am
Uh, an opposing coach, that is. Oh, hell, never mind.
Go Warriors! (Sigh.)
July 4th, 2009 at 1:45 am
Artest will take the second most shots. No way does he defer to Gasol or Bynum!!!??
But those two will won’t kick up a fuss.
The main thing he adds is old-school toughness, something the Lakers could use.
I actually think this is pretty close to a wash. Ariza fit in perfectly on the offense as a high perfroming cog. That’s what the Lakers offense needs. Kobe ahs the ball does his thing and the others fit in. Artest is a minus here, becasue his will never be an offensive cog. HE needs the ball and it will come at the expense of Gasol which is a crime, because Gasol is a great offensive center.
But Artest’s man on man defensive abilities, which are in the top rank (though in decline), are a definite addition and will be especially usefull in the playoff as some others have mentioned.
July 4th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Despite my initial skepticism, I’m starting to like this move. One of the Lakers’ biggest weaknesses has been defense at the small forward position, particularly against big muscular players. For all the virtues of Ariza, he simply doesn’t have the physique to defend players such as Carmelo Anthony, Paul Pierce, or, especially, Lebron James.
Given that the major obstacle the Lakers will face in the next few years will be the Caveliers and Celtics, and perhaps the Nuggets, this trade makes a lot of sense from a match-up standpoint.
Moreover, this move fits nicely with the Lakers’ dynastic timing. Kobe Bryant has only a few more years of seriously vying for championships. While Ariza has enormous long-term potential, and his age might better match Bynum’s career trajectory, it’s best to assemble a team equipped for the likely challenges the Lakers will face over the next three or four years.
This all assumes Artest doesn’t have a meltdown, which is a big assumption.
July 5th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
joe bobbles said: Having Artest gives them a kind of enforcer that they didn’t have before, and didn’t need against the incredibly soft Orlando team.
The incredibly soft Orlando team that beat Boston and Cleveland?