Hedo to Toronto
It looks like Hedo Turkoglu’s not going to Portland after all. Instead, he’ll sign with Toronto. I wasn’t in love with the idea of that deal for Portland, so I think this could be for the best. If they can snag Andre Miller on a reasonable contract, that could be better for them. And since there are no other real prospective bidders out there I don’t see why they couldn’t snag Andre Miller on a reasonable contract. I also think Paul Millsap and David Lee, both of whom are on the market, are better than the somewhat overrated LaMarcus Aldridge.
The other option available to them is just to do nothing. The CW is that Portland needs to use its $9 million in cap space because it won’t be available next summer when extensions for Aldridge and Brandon Roy kick in. That’s true, but the possession of cap room during the season would make them a very appealing trade partner for a team that decides it needs to shed salary. Oftentimes the most one-sided deals out there are this in-season salary dumbs (think Pau Gasol to LA or Kevin Garnett to Boston) so being in a position to be the partner in that kind of deal could be very valuable.
30 Responses to “Hedo to Toronto”
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July 4th, 2009 at 10:37 am
“possession of cap room during the season would make them a very appealing trade partner for a team that decides it needs to shed salary. Oftentimes the most one-sided deals out there are this in-season salary dumbs (think Pau Gasol to LA or Kevin Garnett to Boston) so being in a position to be the partner in that kind of deal could be very valuable.”
Maybe, but neither of your examples work.
- KG went to Boston during the off-season.
- Pau went to Los Angeles in-season when the Lakers were already over the cap, ie. the salaries matched.
The scenario that you are describing, while theoretically possible, is so rare that I can’t come up with an example of it actually happening after thinking on it for a few minutes.
July 4th, 2009 at 10:48 am
You spelled “dumps” wrong.
July 4th, 2009 at 11:04 am
“If they can snag Andre Miller on a reasonable contract, that could be better for them.”
Ugh.
Understanding Miller is pretty simple. In his prime, he was a good PG to have on a mediocre team. I’d assume the Blazers, with the deep pockets of Paul Allen, are aiming to be something more than mediocre.
And you undervalue Hedo.
I’m not sure Miller is an upgrade on Steve Blake right now, and it’ll get worse as a potential long-term Miller contract played out.
“I also think Paul Millsap and David Lee, both of whom are on the market, are better than the somewhat overrated LaMarcus Aldridge.”
I think you are wrong about both, not to mention that both are restricted FA’s.
—–
If the Hedo rapture to Toronto has any upside for Portland, it’ll likely come in the form of getting them to keep Travis Outlaw, whom they’ve been shopping for a long time now for reasons I’ve never understood. Outlaw is someone I’d really want to keep. He seems an epic type of role player that has enduring value – sorta like a very rich man’s Trevor Ariza, or maybe like a young version of Hedo Turkoglu.
—–
I’m much less bullish on Portland than most folks. I worry that Roy is never going to be durable enough, and that Oden is never going to be good enough.
They remind me of Chicago a couple of years ago – lots of good young players, but no foundation for titles. I think they have to break up their young core before signing them to big deals with a trade to bring in some gem, sorta like Boston did, and I get the feeling they don’t have the stomach for that.
July 4th, 2009 at 11:31 am
Matt, maybe I’m being a bit harsh, but I really think you might want to cut down on the basketball posts, or at least restrict their content to somethin along the lines of “such and such an event just happened in this sport that I really like but don’t understand very well.”
I’m probably putting way too much into this, but by making strong claims, like that the Lakers picking up Ron Artest is a mistake, and then supporting such claims with absolute travesties of reason, you might actually damage your credibility (albeit probably just within a small minority of readers) when making policy arguments. That would be a shame, because I really think you have a lot of worthwhile things to say in a lot of different realms. Just not professional basketball.
July 4th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Matt, maybe I’m being a bit harsh, but I really think you might want to cut down on the basketball posts, or at least restrict their content to somethin along the lines of “such and such an event just happened in this sport that I really like but don’t understand very well.”
I’m probably putting way too much into this, but by making strong claims, like that the Lakers picking up Ron Artest is a mistake, and then supporting such claims with absolute travesties of reason, you might actually damage your credibility (albeit probably just among a small minority of readers) when making policy arguments. That would be a shame, because I really think you have a lot of worthwhile things to say in a lot of different realms. Just not professional basketball.
July 4th, 2009 at 11:40 am
The Garnett deal wasn’t one-sided, Al Jefferson is a great young player. It was a standard age for youth deal.
July 4th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Not to mention Portland won 54 games last season — one win away from being the #2 seed instead of Denver — with a very young team. Why not see how much the current roster improves instead of committing to Hedo through age 35?
July 4th, 2009 at 11:53 am
Woah, did someone just say that Travis Outlaw is a rich man’s Ariza? Yikes. Outlaw can do some unique things — mainly, get off his jumper regardless of who’s guarding him, and have it go in a decent amount of the time regardless of how bad a shot it is — but the problem is he doesn’t contribute much else. Whereas Ariza is a very good perimeter defender, Outlaw is not. He loses his man on defense almost every possession. He’s extremely athletic, but he’s not very good at using that athleticism on defense. When you see an opponent cutting to the hoop and then receiving a pass for a wide-open dunk, it was usually Travis’s man. When you see a PG penetrate and then kick out to a wide-open 3-point shooter, it’s usually Travis’s man (he doesn’t understand defensive rotations all that well). And although he’s capable of grabbing a spectacular rebound, he’s not a consistent rebounder at all. Finally, although he’s starting to get better at seeing the open man on offense, he still doesn’t understand ball and player movement all that well.
Believe me, as a Blazer fan I’ve appreciated Travis’s penchant for making tough shots and stepping up in the 4th quarter. But he’s also the ultimate love/hate player because he makes a ton of silly mistakes. He’s not an intangibles guy at this point in his career, and I doubt he ever will be.
July 4th, 2009 at 11:58 am
The scenario that you are describing, while theoretically possible, is so rare that I can’t come up with an example of it actually happening after thinking on it for a few minutes.
I think the Rasheed Wallace to the Pistons trade in 2004 falls into this category, but I’m not totally sure.
In any case, I think it’s rare more because the (few) teams that are under the salary cap each season are very rarely in a position where they are looking to add talent. Far more frequently they are trying to dump salary and rebuild.
Does anyone think there’s a chance one of the elite 2010 free agents (Bosh? Boozer? Nash??) could be on the trade market at midseason if their current teams are doing poorly and looking to rebuild?
July 4th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Gotta agree with the FunkyDuck here. Outlaw is good – even though he completely disappeared in the playoffs this year – but is basketball IQ is terrible. You never know on any given night whether he’s going to start making ridiculous shots or whether you’re just going to put your hands to your face in desperation.
And Lee and Millsap better than Aldridge? I admit that Aldridge isn’t quite as good as he could be, but I’d disagree that those two are better.
Oh, and Petey – I agree with concerns about Roy. I’m nervous about always nervous about injuries on him. But Oden I’m still bullish on. Big men always take a long time to get good, especially when they’re injured for their first TWO years (apparently, Oden couldn’t even do squats last year because of lingering injuries! expect more explosiveness from him now). He just needs to learn to stop being a human foul machine, which takes time. I’d give him two more years, at which point you can make a decent evaluation of him.
July 4th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
“then supporting such claims with absolute travesties of reason”
Seriously, and there’s more than just one statistic used to evaluate players.
July 4th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
“Woah, did someone just say that Travis Outlaw is a rich man’s Ariza? Yikes. Outlaw can do some unique things — mainly, get off his jumper regardless of who’s guarding him, and have it go in a decent amount of the time”
The one “unique thing” happens to be a really valuable skill in the NBA. It’s more valuable than just being a good all-around player.
Also, I like his outlook and mind, so I think he’ll improve on his weaknesses.
But seriously, having a role player who you know can get you a good shot whenever the shot clock (or game clock) winds down is a very, very nice luxury to have.
If you don’t like the “rich man’s Ariza” comparison, try the “young Turkoglu” comparison instead. Hedo’s always been an elite role player because he’s got ice water in his veins and he can always get off his shot. That sounds like Outlaw to me…
July 4th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
matt wright Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Not to mention Portland won 54 games last season — one win away from being the #2 seed instead of Denver — with a very young team. Why not see how much the current roster improves instead of committing to Hedo through age 35?
Portland ought to use the cap space while they have it. Cap space in the NBA is a fleeting thing to be used when it is available, not saved for the future. At some point it will disappear as they have to extend all the young players they have. And even if they could carry it through to next year, there will be far more teams with lots of room to sign guys in a great but what will likely end up being overrated FA class.
Teams without a bunch of cheap, young, talented guys can save cap space because they will have it as long as they don’t make big mistakes. Teams like Portland, especially because their owner has such deep pockets, need to use it before it is gone. Even if they have to overpay or give a guy a year or two more than they might want, it is better to do that than do nothing.
July 4th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Petey,
I hear what you’re saying, and we’ve benefited quite a bit from Outlaw’s offensive skills over the past couple of years. The problem is we need to make the move to the next level, so we need Travis to make some serious strides in the “all-around-player” direction. And so far, he hasn’t shown much ability to do so. Certainly bad defensive rotations can be fixed, but it requires the player to recognize what he’s doing wrong. Travis seems to make the same mistakes over and over and over. There are lots of areas where players can improve, but it’s tough for a player with a low BB IQ to become a high IQ player. And at some point you have to ask whether his lack of improvement in certain areas — whether it’s on defense or in terms of playing within our offensive system — is hurting the team over the long run. I’m worried that Travis is near his max potential. He is who he is, and at some point, that won’t be enough for the team.
Now we do have a player on the roster who’s comparable to Ariza or Tayshaun Prince — Nicolas Batum. He’s just really young (20), and has a fairly raw offensive game at the moment. He can hit the open 3 and can slash on occasion, but he’s still fairly timid when it comes to looking for his shot. However, he’s already our best perimeter defender, and he made a ton of Prince-like blocks from behind on fast breaks last year. And he went from a projected D League player after the draft to our starting SF in about 2 months. He has shown an ability to fit within the Blazers’ system extremely well.
As for the Roy and Oden concerns, most fans are optimistic but nervous. If you ask a Blazer fan about our championship potential, we’ll start every sentence with “If we stay healthy…” Roy is an immense talent — far better than any of us could have imagined when we drafted him — but he takes a beating and has a history of knee trouble. However, “if we stay healthy” and surround him with the right role players, I think he could lead us to a championship. But a lot of things have to go our way first.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
“Teams like Portland, especially because their owner has such deep pockets, need to use it before it is gone. Even if they have to overpay or give a guy a year or two more than they might want, it is better to do that than do nothing.”
I’ll buy that for a dollar. The problem for Portland is that all the good FA’s seem to be gone already this year. In other words, there’s no one left worth overpaying.
I’m not sure Odom or Marion or Miller is much of an answer for them, and who else is out there who could command more than the MLE? Maybe Milsap is the correct move for them, but they’re going to have to really overpay to even have the slightest chance of getting Utah to back off. Utah knows Boozer is gone after this year, so they can match a Milsap deal and only have to pay tax for one year.
FWIW, this is why Otis Smith was so eager to throw the 6 year max at Rashard Lewis at 12:01am of Free Agent Day. A growing young team tends to only have one summer to bring in a high-dollar FA, and you want to make damn sure you get the best player available that summer.
Portland didn’t do that, so now they’re likely in a position where they have to try to thread the needle in some scenario like the one Matt outlined.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
“Now we do have a player on the roster who’s comparable to Ariza or Tayshaun Prince — Nicolas Batum.”
No doubt.
My assertion is that the skillset of someone like Outlaw or Turkoglu is significantly more valuable in NBA terms than the skillset of someone like Batum or Prince.
To always be able to produce a good shot under any conditions – that’s NBA gold.
“(Outlaw) is who he is, and at some point, that won’t be enough for the team.”
Turkoglu took until he was 30 to become a ’superstar’. And even as he became a ’superstar’, he was still only the third best player on the Magic.
Outlaw is never going to be “the man”, but I think he can be a very, very useful third best player on a title contending team.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
David Lee would seem to be a nice fit in Portland. One would think a significant enough contract would get the Knicks to back off, so they can preserve cap space for their upcoming failed run at LeBron.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
I don’t understand the thinking that goes into Outlaw needing to be a star-level player. Roy and Aldridge are their guys, and I guess some people might still hold out hope for Oden. Having a bunch of guys who excel in one or two areas, rather than guys who are above average all around players, is more important for a team like that.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
funkyduck is pretty much right on target about outlaw.
rich man’s ariza?
not in a million years.
his dunder-headed, on-court walkabouts end up killing the team and cause coach nate to sometimes bury him for stretches during games. stretches where the team could certainly use the one skill he possesses.
outlaw has always reminded me a a jumbo-sized vinnie “the microwave” johnson, at the forward spot.
like the microwave, when outlaw is hot, it doesn’t matter who is guarding him, he’s going to get his shot off, and he is going to make it. when he is truly hot, he is a devastating shooter, a guy who takes the heart out of the other team cause a defense can do everything right and travis will still rise up and knock down that pretty jumper.
and like the microwave, he has no fear of taking last second shots. in fact, he’s right up there with roy, in terms of being ready, willing and able to take that last second shot.
it also helps, like the microwave, that he can get his own shot. he is not a real catch and shoot guy, but actually prefers to dribble a couple of times to get his rhythm. just like the microwave would do.
i do have a problem with the way that coach nate uses him. often, he will be on the court, but portland will not really use him as much as they should. because of his defensive issues, i’d expect that portland would try to make certain that he got as many shots as possible, while he was on the court. otherwise, why have him on the court?
(the same thing happens with rudy fernandez. why it happens is mystifying.)
but outlaw is who he is, unfortunately. it’s doubtful that he’s going to develop into the all-around player that his talent suggests he could be.
but a guy like him – a streak shooter who can come off the bench and is unstoppable when hot – is a valuable piece on a very good team. unless someone gave up something else that was equally valuable, keep him. and hope that coach nate uses him more.
btw, hedo not coming here might be a blessing in disguise. while i think they would have improved immediately with hedo, his absence will give batum a better chance to develop. with his elite athleticism and defensive abilities – and you can tell he really likes to play defense – he might be a special player.
if only travis had his basketball iq and his intensity. he’d be one of the best small forwards in the league.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
To always be able to produce a good shot under any conditions – that’s NBA gold.
it is a nice skill to have, but if that was as valuable as all-around play then guys like george mcginnis would have led their teams to titles instead of being interesting nba footnotes. gorgeous george could get any shot he wanted, pretty much any time he wanted, but philly didn’t win anything until they dumped him.
for better or worse, teams need solid defensive players, especially at the small forward spot, or else, the other team’s small forward will kill that team. which is exactly what has happened to detroit over the last few years. guys like pierce and lebron have dominated tayshaun prince and basically taken over entire series. one of the reasons that orlando has improved is that hedo has turned into a pretty good defender and orlando has also been able to slide guys like pietrus into that position.
despite the league’s best efforts, defense, especially at certain positions like shooting guard and small forward, is still what wins in the nba.
there are plenty of teams with lots of guys who can get their own shots – how’s memphis and oj mayo and rudy gay, et al, doing? or the clippers with baron davis and co.? or the warriors with their brigade of gunners? or the old dallas mavs? – who were sitting home watching the nba finals.
the teams that win, still, are the ones who can put legitimate defenders out there. especially at positions where guys can get hot and kill you.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
KG went to Boston as part of an “in season salary dumb” [sic]? Really?
It’s impressive — it’s long been clear that you know next to nothing about basketball, but pretend to possess some kind of expertise by throwing out references to these “advanced” stats that show neither you nor their inventors understand anything about basketball, but every basketball-related post recently has shown your ignorance *even more clearly* than the last. Putting up the wrong picture of the Pitt basketball player, and not even knowing anything about the Garnett to Boston trade, on July 31, 2007. Which, btw, is not “in season.”
July 4th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
What frankied said.
It’s not that Outlaw’s shooting skill isn’t valuable. And we definitely don’t need Travis to be a star to win. But we do need him to play good team defense, to rebound, and to take smart shots within the flow of the offense. It’s hard to win in the playoffs when one of your key players is a leaky sieve on defense who routinely forgets to box out his man. He doesn’t need to be a star defender, but he does need to play good team defense at a minimum.
Assuming Travis stays on the Blazers, I certainly hope he learns those skills. And I’ll happily admit that I’m wrong if he does. But there’s also a risk that we’ll end up with another Zach Randolph on our hands — a guy who shines in one or two areas, and that you invest big money in hoping that he’ll outgrow his weaknesses, but who never does. (BTW, I’m not at all comparing Outlaw to Randolph in terms of character or even skill on the court. I’m just pointing out that we spent a long time waiting for Randolph to become even an average defender, and it simply never happened.) I’m concerned that Outlaw is one of those types of players.
July 4th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
I think the Rasheed Wallace to the Pistons trade in 2004 falls into this category, but I’m not totally sure.
nope, sheed’s move to detroit was not one of those trades.
strictly players and draft choices between atlanta and detroit. in fact, boston was in on the trade in a way i cannot specifically recall right now, but i do believe boston ended up taking a detroit player strictly for salary reasons.
i think they took lindsay hunter off detroit’s hands and then somehow released him, and he went right back to detroit. in fact, i think that was the trade that caused the nba to change their rules so that a player had to wait at least a short period – 30 days – before a just-released player could resign with a team that had just traded them.
(i may be wrong about the specifics, though something weird happened and i do believe that boston and lindsay were involved. i should look it up, but i am being lazy.)
detroit needed the cap room to make space for sheed.
July 4th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
“He doesn’t need to be a star defender, but he does need to play good team defense at a minimum.”
Agreed. If he doesn’t grow as a player, you can disregard everything I’m saying.
But there is some low-hanging fruit out there for him to grab in order to grow. Hedo got a rep as a bad defender when he was getting established too.
Travis is a good athlete, seems to have a good attitude, and seems to have managed growth in the areas he’s been concentrating on.
“But there’s also a risk that we’ll end up with another Zach Randolph on our hands”
God, I hate franchise-centric fans. (No offense). There are so many other cautionary tales that would be more useful than Z-Bo. Zach can’t play defense. He doesn’t have the body for it any more than Steve Nash has the body for it. Outlaw, on the other hand, does have the physical gifts to eventually be an average to above-average defender.
July 4th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
@trevor, @55
Perhaps we should liken Matt’s penchant for hoops blogging to Ezra Klein’s love for food blogging. It’s a hobby. I don’t think Matt studied basketball at Harvard, and I seriously doubt that his next book will be titled Heads above the Rim. He’s an NBA fan just like all of us. His over-reliance on advanced statistical analysis is not more egregious simply because the rest of his blog posts–which address issues more in line with his training–are sound.
July 4th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
jason b,
i agree.
i love the fact that he posts on hoops, even though i rarely agree with his analysis.
so what.
its just sports and the whole idea of chatting about sports is entertaining different views.
anyone can discount anyone’s opinion, and then, we find out, who was right or wrong or maybe just closer to the truth.
its just fun. and we’re all just fans.
keep posting, matt, even though i think you rely on hollinger too much.
July 4th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
let me ask again, what about ramon sessions? why isn’t he being considered by anyone? portland should offer sessions $9 mil a year and see if the bucks blink.
July 4th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
The thing about Hedo is he can drive through that full court press while keeping his head up so he can make the winning pass… or is that sarah?
July 4th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
Petey,
No offense taken. My point about Zach is that we, as a fan base, kept waiting for him to improve on defense. Even just a little bit. His problem, though, wasn’t his body type, although it’s definitely not ideal for his position. It’s that Zach honestly has no interest in putting forth the effort, and he’s generally clueless when it comes to team defensive concepts. We knew he’d never become Tim Duncan, but it would have been nice if he at at least tried to become a Carlos Boozer — a decent position defender, although not a shot blocker. But nope, he just didn’t have the desire or the BB IQ.
Now Travis definitely has the height and athleticism to be a good defender (although his lateral quickness isn’t as good as you’d think). But Travis has now been with the Blazers for six years, believe it or not, and he still struggles with the basics. Maybe he’s just slow to pick things up, but you’d think he’d at least get the concepts by now. I suspect he’s just an offensive-minded player, and he doesn’t have the same focus when it comes to improving on D. I hope I’m wrong, though.
BTW, Travis seems like a great guy, so I’d love him to become that player. He’s definitely a great locker room guy.
July 4th, 2009 at 11:22 pm
The problem with the Blazer lineup is that the sum of all their parts is pretty darn good but their best inside player isn’t very good with his back to the basket and their best outside guy isn’t quite a superstar talent. No offense, I love Roy and if he could land on a team with a real superstar he’d probably pass Pippen as the best #2 guy ever. But he’s just not quite ever going to be Kobe, LeBron, Wade, etc.
Aldridge is another nice talent but he’s essentially a jump shooter and struggles a bit defensively against top post-up players. For this reason I’d think that Millsap would be a great pickup for them as they would finally have that inside scoring guy that would make Roy and Co. all that much more efficient.
Usually I’m the type who leans toward the what you see is what you get assessment of players but I really do believe that Oden can be the kind of player that should have been drafted #1 ahead of Durant. If we don’t see it by mid-season 2011 I’ll admit my mistake but, for now, I’m on board with the Blazers best shot of winning a ring is with his ascension into an elite center. Because of this I think they should only play around the margins of player movement, i.e. not signing Hedo was a sound decision.
Agree with the Blazer fans about Outlaw. Probably worth more on the market than with the team since Batum is such a nice prospect.