Hedo or Batum?
Nicolas Batum (wikimedia)
I’m not sure it’s such a smart idea for the Portland Trailblazers to be trying to recruit Hedo Turkoglu. Last season he scored 16.8 points per game on .541 TS% in 36.6 mpg. He pulled down 8.2 percent of available rebounds. Portland’s incumbent small forward, Nicolas Batum, only played 18.4 mpg and thus scored just 5.4 points per game. But he did it with a .555 TS% and and a 9.4 percent rebound rate. Plus he was only 20 so he’s likely to get better. If I were the Trailblazers, I would just give Batum more minutes and spend my free agent energy on trying to find a point guard who’s better than Steve Blake.
Now of course if you sign Turkoglu then you can still play Batum off the bench and let Rudy Fernandez go sulk or whatever. But any time you’re considering signing a free agent, especially in the NBA context, I think you really need to ask yourself if you’re not headed for a “winner’s curse” type of situation. When a truly top-notch player comes along, the kind of guy who teams would pay more than the max for if that were allowed, then of course you sign that guy. But otherwise, you’d better have some reason to believe that he either fills a unique need for your team (for all that Rashard Lewis’ contract seems a bit absurd, very few guys can both hit three pointers and defend power forwards credibly) or else that you have some specific reason to believe he’s being undervalued by the market. Turkoglu, a scorer we’re all talking about because we just watched him shine on national television in a run to the NBA finals, doesn’t fit the model of someone who’s likely to wind up undervalued.
42 Responses to “Hedo or Batum?”
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July 1st, 2009 at 4:51 pm
i’m a portlander and i watch the blazers a lot.
though i am a pistons’ fan.
batum, imho, has dennis rodman potential. without the crazy.
he’ll never be a great scorer, but he is the kind of guy who can be a shutdown defender and a very good rebounder. having a small forward who can shut down the other team’s small forward – or shooting guard – is invaluable. that 3 or 2 man is likely to be the top scorer on a given team, so defending that player well can decide plenty of games.
while i like turkey-glue, i would stick with batum.
July 1st, 2009 at 4:53 pm
I agree that they shouldn’t sign Turk the Turk because Portland has multiple needs and someone is likely to overpay for Turkoglu. However, don’t forget that it Turkoglu is a better defender and much better passer than Batum. He would be a great compliment to Roy and eliminate the need to get a good point guard.
July 1st, 2009 at 4:56 pm
This does seem very un-Portland of them doesn’t it? Short of pulling off some miracle sign-and-trade for a Raymond Felton or something, I’d just sit tight this year if I’m Portland.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:02 pm
I agree, an upgrade over Steve Blake is clearly more important. They need a point guard who can actually get into the lane, to take shot creating pressure off of Roy and open shots for all their shooters and put backs for Oden and Przbilla.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:06 pm
“Turkoglu is a better defender and much better passer than Batum…”
no way is turkey-glue a better defender.
batum is really exceptional in that area. he is extremely quick and fast, with long, long arms and he is agressive. he is a very good defender, even now, and he has the potential to be an all-defensive first teamer, every year.
i’ve seen lots of turkey-glue over the years because i watch lots of pistons’ b-ball. he is an inconsistent defender. he usually gives the effort, but his lack of elite-level athleticism hurts him at times.
defense, and defense alone was the reason he was on the court last year.
batum has that elite-level athleticism, plus he puts the effort into it.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:09 pm
The Blazers don’t need to improve on offense as much as defense as they were the most offensively efficient team in the league last year. Hedo is a mediocre player without a lot of drive (doesn’t keep in shape, eats pizza right before games) without great D who fills a role occupied by Roy and Fernandez.
There’s a mob over at BlazersEdge (a SBN blog) rounding up the torches and pitchforks in the case Kevin Pritchard throws $10 million/year at Turkeyglue. Most folks are happy with the SF situation (unless an Artest or Ariza could be had) and think that the resources need to be invested in a very strong PG and/or a vet back-up PF.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:13 pm
@frankie d:
“i’ve seen lots of turkey-glue over the years because i watch lots of pistons’ b-ball.”
while most of what you said was true, this doesn’t make much sense. Turk never played for the pistons.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:21 pm
if you read the entire thread, you’d see that i live in portland.
but i am a pistons’ fan.
and therefore watch lots of eastern conference games, including lots of orlando games. against detroit and against other eastern conf. teams.
lots of west coast fans see eastern conference teams once or twice a year, when those teams play their home team.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:30 pm
frankie d:
Maybe you watched lots of Orlando games, but that doesn’t necessarily follow from “living in Portland” and “being a Pistons” fan.
Orlando played the Pistons 3 times last year and the Blazers probably the same number. Watching 6 more regular season games than the dozen or two Orlando playoff games available to everyone doesn’t make an expert. Having League Pass and watching a bunch of non-Piston, non-Blazer Orlando games may (though you didn’t mention that to begin with).
July 1st, 2009 at 5:36 pm
I actually agree. Portland has enough talent at SF; what it really needs is a good backup PF and, most importantly, an improvement at PG. Maybe they’re having a hard time finding a really good PG?
July 1st, 2009 at 5:42 pm
what about Ramon Sessions? for some reason, he hasn’t been getting enough hype, but he’s better than felton, young (23), and growing. he was underplayed due to scott skiles’s preference for boring white point guards, but this shouldn’t discourage the sane.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:43 pm
you’d better have some reason to believe that he either fills a unique need for your team
Turkoglu is a 6′10 small forward who can direct the offense, hit 3s, create his own shot, and defend 4 positions passably. He fills a unique spot on any team. But the Blazers shouldn’t sign him because… they need a guy who can handle the ball and hit threes better than Blake? With Turk and Roy on the floor, they wouldn’t need a traditional PG.
They aren’t going to give Turkoglu a max contract; they only have $8M or $9M under the cap, which isn’t much more than Orlando reportedly offered him ($35M for 4 years).
Also, I would assume if they don’t sign Turkoglu, Fernandez and Outlaw will continue to get more minutes than Batum, unless he progresses very quickly.
(for all that Rashard Lewis’ contract seems a bit absurd, very few guys can both hit three pointers and defend power forwards credibly)
Oh so NOW you think the Lewis signing was a good idea. Not such madness after all, eh? Commenters win again!
July 1st, 2009 at 5:49 pm
ben,
i thought i was clear that i watch lots of eastern conference games.
logically, though unstated, follows that i’d have access to something like league pass – or know of websites that stream games.
i have had league pass for years and i also watch games via streaming.
i’m an nba junkie, and watch too much pro basketball.
i especially watch teams that have been rivals of detroit for the last few years: cleveland, orlando, boston. when they play detroit and when they play other teams. i like to keep tabs on the competition.
while i would never call myself an expert, i can safely say i know more than the average fan. especially because i keep tabs on both conferences, something that is tough to do because of time issues, eg, early east. conf. starts.
and figuring out that turkey-glue isn’t in batum’s league as a defender really isn’t that difficult to figure out. if you watch both play.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:52 pm
“Turkoglu is a 6′10 small forward who can direct the offense, hit 3s, create his own shot, and defend 4 positions passably. He fills a unique spot on any team.”
Shhhh…
Matty thinks NBA players can be entirely reduced to TS% and rebound rate.
He doesn’t understand the entire concept of what shot creation is, and so he can’t possibly value it.
—–
Turk is 30. He’d create a weird generation gap for the Blazers, which would be my only concern. Otherwise, he’s a no-brainer for a $45m contract given that Paul Allen is willing to pay tax. He’ll make Portland better.
Dude’s got a unique and wonderful skillset. However, he won’t be quite as useful on Portland as he was on Orlando. It’s a shame he didn’t take their extension. He was made to play with Howard and Lewis.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:56 pm
and figuring out that turkey-glue isn’t in batum’s league as a defender really isn’t that difficult to figure out. if you watch both play.
I agree 100%.
The only way that I understand this move is that KP wants to exploit mismatches and free up Roy more. While Turk isn’t the better player, the best player/team doesn’t always win in basketball. Arguably, Portland lost in the first round to Houston, not because it was a worse team, but because it was a poor mismatch for them (and could have beaten LA for the same reason)..
July 1st, 2009 at 5:57 pm
As a Blazer’s fan I’m not crazy about Hedo, but I’m not totally opposed either, if the next move is trading Outlaw and Blake for a PG (Hinnrich?) Getting rid of Outlaw would actually increase both Batum’s and Rudy’s minutes, Hedo starts and Batum and Rudy get all a lot of the minutes that were going to Outlaw. Also Hedo’s ability to handle the ball means you can go PGless more often with Roy and Rudy in the back court.
Hinnrich on D would be a huge upgrade over Blake, having a PG who doesn’t get constantly beaten off the dribble will do wonders for Oden’s and Pryzbilla’s foul problems.
July 1st, 2009 at 6:01 pm
btw, i do think that turkey-glue would help. i actually like him as a player and any team could use a guy with his skills. it would also give portland another guy who will take late game outside shots. that was a bit of a problem last year. too often outlaw was the only other guy who seemed willing to take a pressure jumper. it was embarrassing to see guys like aldridge and blake pass up open shots in the last minutes of games. turkey-glue won’t do that. he’ll take that shot. and make it.
imho, however, a lockdown defender like batum – if he continues to develop – is worth a heckuva lot more than he appears to be worth initially. too often people concentrate on what he can’t do. i’d continue to let him develop.
July 1st, 2009 at 6:03 pm
“Oh so NOW you think the Lewis signing was a good idea. Not such madness after all, eh? Commenters win again!”
I think almost all of my comments on that thread have held up pretty damn well.
Folks were trying to convince me that Richard Jefferson was a more valuable player than Rashard Lewis. Hah!
July 1st, 2009 at 6:04 pm
hinrich is not the answer.
he is not a true point. he’s more of a combo guard.
chicago figured this out a few years ago, which was a huge reason they drafted rose instead of beasley.
hinrich is a quality player, but his true niche is as an off-the-bench guy who can play a little point and a little off-guard and play defense on a wide range of players.
but a pure point guard he aint.
especially at about 9 million a year.
July 1st, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Turk is a reasonably good player with a rare skillset: 6.10, average outside shooter, good ballhandler and passer, adequate defender, versatile, etc. He was especially useful for Orlando because his size and ability to play point forward made him perfect to feed Howard; few teams could defend the Turkoglu/Howard pick and roll effectively. So yes, he’s more valuable than his numbers suggest…but mainly to a team like Orlando, with a dominant big with a limited offensive game. Portland has Oden, but unless they plan to make him the centerpiece of their offense, I don’t see it.
July 1st, 2009 at 6:11 pm
“hinrich is not the answer.
he is not a true point. he’s more of a combo guard.”
Because Roy takes on most of the ball-handling duties, the Blazers aren’t looking for a “traditional” pass-first PG. They want someone who can create on their own, hit a spot-up 3, and make up for some of Roy’s defensive liabilities. The “PG of the future”, Jerryd Bayless, is something of a shoot-first combo guard, himself.
Hinrich’s valued for his strong D and decent O.
July 1st, 2009 at 6:15 pm
With Roy and Hedo you don’t need a pure PG, He isn’t my first choice either, but his bad contract is why he is available relatively cheaply. Any young PG worth getting is probably going to require Rudy or Aldridge in trade.
One not totally crazy idea is Aldridge, Outlaw and Rudy for Chris Paul and then sign David Lee, other than that fantasy scenario, I suppose Rudy and Outlaw for Devin Harris is ok.
July 1st, 2009 at 6:25 pm
9 million is a lot for a player with hinrich’s limitations.
nice player, but at 9 million i’d pass.
he’s not worth twice as much as blake. if he had a contract around 5 to 6 million, yes. 9 million. no.
especially because you aren’t really getting a pure point guard.
for instance, what happens if roy goes down with an injury for a 15-20 game stretch or so? what happens then? do they trade for another guy? or hope that hinrich can muddle through that short period?
July 1st, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Oh so NOW you think the Lewis signing was a good idea. Not such madness after all, eh? Commenters win again!
F&*$! That thread was awful. I was wrong about virtually everything I wrote.
July 1st, 2009 at 6:29 pm
F&*$! That thread was awful. I was wrong about virtually everything I wrote.
My comment was a mixed bag. I was right that the Lewis signing was a smart move, but was worried about the fact that it probably meant they couldn’t resign Darko (oops!).
July 1st, 2009 at 6:30 pm
One not totally crazy idea is Aldridge, Outlaw and Rudy for Chris Paul
New Orleans would never ever ever do that trade. The only way Chris Paul gets traded to Portland is if Brandon Roy were on the other side of the trade.
July 1st, 2009 at 7:12 pm
F&*$! That thread was awful. I was wrong about virtually everything I wrote.
Must…resist…
July 1st, 2009 at 7:26 pm
Right, You did see where I said fantasy scenario:-) But Roy for CP3 doesn’t really make sense either, if they do trade him it is because they can’t build a competitive team with a max contract player and a bunch of cheap guys, they’ll need to move him for quantity, swapping him for another max contract guy (which Roy will be as soon as the FAs get signed and he gets his extension) just puts them in the same situation.
Long term the only way I see them keeping him and being anything better than a perennial first round loser is moving to Seattle so they can make some money.
I think Rudy and Outlaw as the centerpiece of a trade for Harris is realistic.
Frankie,
You’re right that Hinnrich isn’t twice as good as Blake, but that isn’t how sports work, he is enough better just on D alone to take them to the next level, you can’t put a linear scale on the cost of wins, getting from 54 – 60 costs a lot more than getting from 40 – 54 did. And again if he didn’t have a bad contract he wouldn’t be available for so little, the Bulls would be keeping him. Sure I’d rather have someone like Harris or Calerdon, but the fact that they aren’t overpaid means they will cost a lot more in trade and may not be gettable for anything the Blazers have to offer.
July 1st, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Wait, Rashard Lewis is a credible defender now?
July 1st, 2009 at 8:07 pm
Yeah, Orlando really got favorable match-ups and until the finals never had to face a team that had more than 1 legit post player on the court at a time, no way they’d have survived in the West.
July 1st, 2009 at 8:13 pm
But Roy for CP3 doesn’t really make sense either
I didn’t say it made sense, but it’s the only thing in the universe of possibilities.
Meanwhile, can anyone explain to me the master plan in Detroit? Can Gordon and Hamilton play on the floor together? Is Villanueva really any good?
July 1st, 2009 at 8:24 pm
Basically any scenario where they stay in NO and continue losing money doesn’t make sense
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:13 am
I’ll never understand this desire owners have to go out and overpay free agents–call it Veblen’s revenge. Besides the bad Miles and Pryzbilla contracts, Portland’s highest paid player is Aldridge at $5.8 million. Apparently that makes some owners feel like they’re poor and they need to go out and spend on some wasteful, useless good.
Turkoglu was great for Orlando, and yet even on the Magic we were treated to the spectacle of him dribbling the air out of the ball for 15 seconds and then turning the ball over when–and he’s 6 foot 11! He’ll do the same thing in Portland with such a weak PG. He’s also a lazy player who regularly gives up on defense. Before the Magic, he wasn’t that good for Sacramento. Which is why Orlando got him for cheap. Has anyone mentioned that he’s 30 this year?
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:12 am
Just as well the Blazers picked up Mills then.
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:31 am
Hinrich is pretty much perfect for the Blazers, and as a Bulls fan who appreciates what he’s brought to the table for the past several years (aside from his atrocious play in 07-08), I had hoped the two teams put their heads together and figure out a Hinrich-for Outlaw/Blake kind of trade.
First, Kirk’s contract declines, so it’s not as bad as it seems, plus he’s already 2 years in and I think it’s only 5 years total. 3 years at 9mil, declining, really isn’t bad for a starting PG (he’s not a pure PG, but more of a PG than SG) who can defend both guard spots well, is a decent but not great shooter, and can handle the ball quite well. Kirk’s best years with the Bulls were at a 16pt/6ast level. He’d probably be a 12/5 guy with the Blazers since they have so many superior scoring options, but that plus Kirk’s defense is exactly what they need.
It’s all a moot point now, however. Ben Gordon is gone and the Bulls are suddenly looking at starting either Kirk Hinrich (more of a PG than SG) or John Salmons (more of a SF than SG) at Ben’s old position. I was all too aware of Gordon’s defensive shortcomings and tendency to derail the offensive flow, but the Bulls have no one to pick up that scoring slack at the moment unless Luol Deng gets healthy and learns how to create his own shot.
July 2nd, 2009 at 8:59 am
Does anyone keep stats on unassisted points? In any “theory of everything” stat, those should be worth more than assisted points.
July 2nd, 2009 at 9:12 am
Where is the love for Hedo? Did he not expertly quarterback a good but not great team to the finals. The finals, of course, were a different story. Stan Van Gundy decided to change the offense and Turkoglu’s role was drasically altered. But in the first three rounds Turkoglu was a near perfect quarterback.
In fact, the last time I saw a primary ball handler guide an offense so smoothly I have to think back to the days when Scotty Pippen ran the Chicago Bulls offense. Nothing fancy. No flashy drives. No dribble, dribble, dribble, fire. Just get the team quickly into its set, get the ball to to right guy, and operate, repeatedly, with a full clock. Efficient offense.
But no. It is always stats, stats, stats for Matty. Basketball is still proving resistant to statistical analysis, young lad. What players like Turoglu and Pippen have in common is their true value to a team will not show up in the box score. Not the current one.
Smart basketball people are beginning to look into it though. True statistical breakdowns that have meaning. But we are still in the early stages. Unlike baseball, it remains a scout’s game.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&sq=shane%20battier&st=cse&scp=1
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:22 am
“Does anyone keep stats on unassisted points? In any “theory of everything” stat, those should be worth more than assisted points.”
The problem is that “shot creation” means much more than just creating an unassisted shot for yourself.
For example, let’s take a hypothetical possession where Hedo initiates the offense in the halfcourt. To best cover the mismatch he ends up with after a pick and roll, the defense sends help. Hedo then makes the correct play when confronted with multiple defenders and passes to Rashard Lewis, whom the defense runs at. Lewis then makes the correct play and swings the ball to Pietrus, who takes a dribble, has two defenders run at him, and then makes the correct play of swinging the ball to Courtney Lee for an absolutely wide open very high percentage corner three pointer.
In that hypothetical, Hedo is the one who has created the entire series of events where the defense is scrambling, on their heels, and massively off balance. Faced with Hedo being defended by a player who doesn’t have the size and/or speed to keep him from knocking down a bunny, the defense goes nuts trying to cope, and never is able to get un-nuts. Hedo doesn’t get a shot attempt. Hedo doesn’t get an assist. Hedo doesn’t even get a ‘hockey assist’. But Hedo is responsible for the “shot creation” that got the wide open attempt for Lee.
The stats for that hypothetical result in an assisted basket that Hedo has nothing to do with. But Hedo makes it happen.
All “shot creation” means is that you have the ball in your hands and do something that gets a attempt for you or a teammate that the defense can’t effectively contest. It doesn’t matter if you’re Michael Jordan and most of your shot creation results in shots for yourself, if you’re Chris Paul and most of your shot creation results in shots for your teammates, or if you’re Hedo Turkoglu and there is a balance between the two.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:53 am
“What players like Turoglu and Pippen have in common is their true value to a team will not show up in the box score. Not the current one.”
I assert that a good amount of what a player like Turkoglu provides will never show up in the box score, no matter how good the stats someday get.
Things like shot creation (and on-ball defense) are essentially unquantifiable. Seriously, what kind of stats could possibly account for Hedo’s role in a play like the one I post in the hypothetical in the comment above? The only possibility is +/-, but there are significant limitations to what even +/- will ever be able to tell you.
Basketball will remain a half-scout / half-stat game for as long as it is played in anything like its current form. Large parts of the game are simply irreducible to stats, no matter how good and how creative the stat collection gets.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:15 pm
No one but dth has mentioned Ramon Sessions. I assume that’s because he’s a restricted free agent. But surely we’re all pretty aware that, if it had to be a sign-and-trade route, Milwaukee not only has needs but also doesn’t want to pay anyone.
Also, I think Sessions would be a better defender, and that’s the side of the ball Portland really should improve on.
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:21 pm
But the ability to disrupt a defense the way you describe stems from his ability to score on his own. He won’t get an unassisted basket for every instance where he breaks down the defense, but he will get a disproportionate number of unassisted baskets.
The most extreme example was Iverson in the year the Sixers went to the finals. His stats made him look like a low-efficiency ball hog, but it was precisely his ability to make a defense fall apart, unreflected in any regular stat, that made his team mates look as good as they did. What is certain is that Iverson scored a lot of unassisted baskets.
July 3rd, 2009 at 6:58 pm
“But the ability to disrupt a defense the way you describe stems from his ability to score on his own. He won’t get an unassisted basket for every instance where he breaks down the defense, but he will get a disproportionate number of unassisted baskets.”
Noted.