CBO Scores Complete HELP Bill and the News is Good
When the Congressional Budget Office did its preliminary analysis of a sketchy outline of the Senate HELP committee’s vision of health care reform, the outlook was not-so-good. The bill was estimated to cost $1 trillion over 10 years, while reducing the number of uninsured by “only” one-third. At the time, voices of reason tried to point out that this was a preliminary estimate of a bill that was missing many crucial elements so we ought to reserve judgment. But Faiz Shakir reminds us that key conservative legislators were not so kind:
John McCain: “[The CBO estimate] should be a wake up call for all of us to scrap the current bill and start over in a true bipartisan fashion.”
John Boehner: “[T]he public option would cost over $1 trillion, and would cause 23 million Americans to lose their private health care coverage.”
Lindsey Graham: “The CBO estimates were a death blow to a government run health care plan.”
It’s a sign of the ignorance or dishonesty of Boehner and Graham that they made those remarks even though the absence of analysis of the impact of a public health insurance option was precisely one of the shortcomings of the initial analysis. At any rate, now a more fleshed-out version of the bill is available and as the AP reports things now look much better:
The plan carries a 10-year price tag of slightly over $600 billion, and would lead toward an estimated 97 percent of all Americans having coverage, according to the Congressional Budget Office, Sens. Edward M. Kennedy and Chris Dodd said in a letter to other members of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. [...]
The [employer mandate] provision is also estimated to greatly reduce the number of workers whose employers would drop coverage, thus addressing a major concern noted by CBO when it reviewed the earlier proposals.
John Cohn explains that this $900 billion figure is actually somewhat misleading, and fully covering this 97 percent should cost more like $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion. That’s a lot of money, but the gains in coverage are major. Given that the right was so impressed by the CBO score of the preliminary draft, will they also be so impressed by this new, more accurate score of the more completed draft? If they’re honest and principled they ought to be and they ought to recognize that this is a pretty good bill.
12 Responses to “CBO Scores Complete HELP Bill and the News is Good”
Register
RSSLogin
Topic Cloud
ArchivesBlog RollAbout Matt YglesiasContact Me
Donate
July 2nd, 2009 at 9:26 am
“this $900 billion figure is actually somewhat misleading…”
Do you mean “this $600 billion figure”?
July 2nd, 2009 at 9:34 am
Typical! The secretly Stalinist Congressional Budget Office is not factoring the loss to American economic productivity by the guaranteed standard of living from broader health insurance turning Americans into a degenerate slob-population!!
Yes, that is a joke on my part.
Making health insurance more available to Americans (especially through a low-hassle public option) is an important tool for justice, and the Democrats in the White House and Congress need to be clear on this.
July 2nd, 2009 at 9:54 am
Basically the same price as the Medicare drug benefit passed by Bush.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:47 am
Hmm…any chance this was a brilliant strategy by the HELP committee. Submit a partial report without the most contraversial reform proposals, scare everyone with a big number, then magically reduce it by adding in the employer mandate, public option, etc. to achieve a resonable score? It would seem to put moderate “fiscal conservative’s” backs against the wall.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:53 am
I had the same thought as Jared–this seems an awful lot like yet another rope-a-dope. But I would still bet against that scenario: I just think the Republicans these days have a unique talent for rope-a-doping themselves.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:44 am
If [the right is] honest and principled they ought to be and they ought to recognize that this is a pretty good bill.
Just leave the comedy to Franken for now, OK?
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Keep in mind, even that high estimate of $1.3 trillion is only about 2% of total healthcare spending in that 10 year period.
Does the estimate take into account potential cost reduction? The across-the-board savings to governmentally and privately insured people could easily more than make up for that 2%. The government as a whole might (or might not) pay more, but the people as a whole would pay much less. It would be worthwhile even if it didn’t extend coverage; that it does so makes it an overwhelmingly good idea.
July 2nd, 2009 at 12:21 pm
You must remember that Matt multiplies all numbers by 3. So when he says that something cost $1800 billion dollars, he really means it will cost $1200 billion dollars.
I suffer from a similar malady myself, multiplying everything by 4.
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:25 pm
@Njorl – I think you are suffering from Doubled Multiplier Syndrome, wherein multiplying a number by 3 gives you an answer that’s only 1.5 times bigger.
July 2nd, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Jared – you might be right, but it is interesting how much momentum was just generated (the CBO score, the AMA backing the public option, Franken as an additional vote on the Committee), and the end result – all 13 Dems backing it.
Regarding Cohn’s numbers, of course that number leaves out cost-savings and other reforms to Medicare/Medicaid, the impact of the public option on private insurers, and the $2 trillion pledge from the health care industry.
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:02 pm
There’s an aspect of this issue that the accounting probably does not capture. In theory, there should be a reduction of costs to those that are already insured. When an uninsured person shows up in the emergency room, he gets treated even if he can’t pay. Those costs are covered mostly by raising the costs of treatment for everyone else. In theory, that shouldn’t happen anymore, so the costs to the already insured should drop. Of course, prices never go down in medicine, but maybe they could rise more slowly now.
July 2nd, 2009 at 8:54 pm
AMERICA’S NATIONAL HEALTHCARE EMERGENCY!
It’s official. America and the World are now in a GLOBAL PANDEMIC. A World EPIDEMIC with potential catastrophic consequences for ALL of the American people. The first PANDEMIC in 41 years. And WE THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES will have to face this PANDEMIC with the 37th worst quality of healthcare in the developed World.
STAND READY AMERICA TO SEIZE CONTROL OF YOUR NATIONAL HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.
We spend over twice as much of our GDP on healthcare as any other country in the World. And Individual American spend about ten times as much out of pocket on healthcare as any other people in the World. All because of GREED! And the PRIVATE FOR PROFIT healthcare system in America.
And while all this is going on, some members of congress seem mostly concern about how to protect the corporate PROFITS! of our GREED DRIVEN, PRIVATE FOR PROFIT NATIONAL DISGRACE. A PRIVATE FOR PROFIT DISGRACE that is in fact, totally valueless to the public health. And a detriment to national security, public safety, and the public health.
Progressive democrats the Tri-Caucus and others should stand firm in their demand for a robust public option for all Americans, with all of the minimum requirements progressive democrats demanded. If congress can not pass a robust public option with at least 51 votes and all robust minimum requirements, congress should immediately move to scrap healthcare reform and request that President Obama declare a state of NATIONAL HEALTHCARE EMERGENCY! Seizing and replacing all PRIVATE FOR PROFIT health insurance plans with the immediate implementation of National Healthcare for all Americans under the provisions of HR676 (A Single-payer National Healthcare Plan For All).
Coverage can begin immediately through our current medicare system. With immediate expansion through recruitment of displaced workers from the canceled private sector insurance industry. Funding can also begin immediately by substitution of payroll deductions for private insurance plans with payroll deductions for the national healthcare plan. This is what the vast majority of the American people want. And this is what all objective experts unanimously agree would be the best, and most cost effective for the American people and our economy.
In Mexico on average people who received medical care for A-H1N1 (Swine Flu) with in 3 days survived. People who did not receive medical care until 7 days or more died. This has been the same results in the US. But 50 million Americans don’t even have any healthcare coverage. And at least 200 million of you with insurance could not get in to see your private insurance plans doctors in 2 or 3 days, even if your life depended on it. WHICH IT DOES!
If President Obama has to declare a NATIONAL STATE OF EMERGENCY to rescue the American people from our healthcare crisis, he will need all the sustained support you can give him. STICK WITH HIM! He’s doing a brilliant job.
THIS IS THE BIG ONE!
THE BATTLE OF GOOD Vs EVIL!
Join the fight.
Contact congress and your representatives NOW! AND SPREAD THE WORD!
God Bless You
Jacksmith – WORKING CLASS