Matthew Yglesias » Blazers Bid for Andre Miller

Jul 24th, 2009 at 3:57 pm

Blazers Bid for Andre Miller

Looks like the Portland Trailblazers are going to put in a bid for the services of Andre Miller. It makes sense insofar as point guard seems to be their weakest position. But how much would Miller help the team?

Based on this it looks like he does help. But the upgrade from Steve Blake looks pretty marginal. And Miller’s not the kind of skilled long-range shooter who’d help space the floor for Brandon Roy. So this would be a useful pickup but probably not all that useful.

Update I should clarify, since folks are speculating about this in comments, that I'm not a Blazers fan. I just think they're facing the most interesting offseason issues because cap flexibility + pretty good team = interesting offseason.

Comments
21

Filed under: Basketball, NBA, Sports

21 Responses to “Blazers Bid for Andre Miller”

omellet Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
It looks like all they really need to do is give Steve Blake more playing time.
Alan in SF Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
I don’t know much about these guys’ respective defensive abilities, but offensive stats being fairly similar, I’d say the 200 lb. guy represents a major upgrade over the 170 lb guy.

All props to my fellow Terp — he’s worked hard to make himself into an NBA player, and a pretty good one, but it’s still a wonder that he’s playing in the NBA.
ambrown Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Go blazers! I’m glad that my favorite progressive blogger seems to have a flirtatious eye towards my favorite sports team.
Raoul Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
This is a great example of over reliance on stats. I like Blake, but no way he is near as good as Miller.
Matt S. Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
As a Philadelphian and 76ers fan, I think you underestimate the abilities of Andre Miller. He made the Sixers much better than they actually were (their first-round playoff exits the past couple of years served only to hurt them in draft position where they would do best to upgrade their talent). I would probably make him team MVP over the other Andre, Iguodala, who tends to go on long stretches of mediocrity and withers in the spotlight. Miller is a winner.
Adam in DC Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Jesus Christ Yglesias, are you seriously a Blazers fan? Do you just follow every cool underground trend? I’ll bet you wear scarves in the summer.

I’ll give you a hint so maybe you can be a step ahead next time: OKC. And unlike the Blazers, aka 20 seconds or more, they are actually fun to watch. I’d go ahead and buy a Durant jersey if I was shiftless fanboy like you.

But seriously, I enjoy your stuff. Keep up the good work.
Charrua Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Miller uses more possesions, is more effective with them, rebounds better, defends better… what’s not to like?
The only drawback is that Blake is a much, much better long range shooter. Miller won’t stretch defenses the same way when Roy does his thing. But he will improve their defense quite a bit, and that was their weakness last year.
z Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
AWESOME

like ambrown, Yglesias and the Blazers on the tops of my respective lists.

and Adam, seriously? its trendy to like the Blazers? we’ve been lost in the wilderness ever since the infamous 4th quarter meltdown of the western conference finals against the lakers – what 6, 7 years ago?
Adam in DC Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
z,

Seriously. Simmons, the master of inane pop culture references, calls them the “internet team”.

It all started because Henry Abbot, who writes True Hoop, is a Blazers fan boy and writes long paeans to how smart Kevin Pritchard is, how progressive the organization is, blah, blah, blah. He even had a post awhile back defending his fan-boyness against people complaining that he should be unbiased.

If you wanted to give Yglesias the benefit of the doubt you could say, “Of course he likes the Blazers. They are a well run organization, have a lot of smart interesting people writing/blogging about them, and have some exciting young players.” Alternatively, you could ask, “Why the hell would someone who grew up in New York root for a team on the left coast that until recently was one of the most historically defunct group of guys masquerading as a sports team ever assembled. Oh, thats right, it recently became the cool thing to do.”
kitsune Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
z that unfortunate event was actually nine years ago.

And something to remember is that Miller is not going to replace Blake. One of them will be the backup, and a decent backup point guard is something the Blazers missed last season. This is a good move for the Blazers, and probably means that Jerryd Bayless is available.
eric k Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
You gotta consider Defense and that Blake now becomes the backup.

Blake’s D is horrible, simply having a PG who doesn’t get beaten off the dribble at the drop of a hat will do wonders for Pryzbilla and Oden’s foul situation.

And now Blake takes Sergio and Bayless’s minutes.
Dean Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Sometimes, you get lucky with semi-arbitrary fandom. I was introduced to baseball by my best friend in elementary school, who had moved from Atlanta, around 1991. Perfect time to start following the Braves. Similarly, a friend who transferred from Idaho to Dartmouth in the Summer of 2004 picked the right time to become a Red Sox fan.
Turgidson Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Trading for Kirk Hinrich made the most sense, though the Bulls probably decided not to let him go for anything but a star big man once Detroit threw all that money at Ben Gordon.

Kirk is a better defender than either Miller or Blake, a better 3pt shooter than Miller (not as good as Blake) and is more comfortable off the ball than Miller, which seems like a prerequisite for being Portland’s PG, considering how much Roy handles the ball.
Shine Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Really, Matt, you cannot “sabermetrically” analyze basketball. Individual stats in baseball really do tell you 80 to 90% of the story; in basketball, they tell you maybe 50%, at most.

Didn’t we just have this conversation vis-a-vis the Shawn Marion post, the Allen Iverson post, the Millsap, Lee, Aldridge post …? Wonky statistical fixation works in health care and economic stimulus deabtes and baseball. It doesn’t work in basketball. Jeez . . .

And what Turgidson said.
nbt Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Performance of individual basketball players is extremely dependent upon the team situation they find themselves in. They are not robots. Yglesias’s repeated statistical comparisons are ridiculous. Hint: try comparing Shawn Marion’s numbers in Phoenix and out of Phoenix.

In any case, Miller is an upgrade over Blake. Bayless can be the backup (don’t they have a potential third point guard from Finland?) and Portland can trade Blake for loose change.
ben Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
@Adam in DC-

Why would anyone with a shred of a sense of justice or history actively root for the OKC Thunder? The ownership of the team bought a 40-year old franchise under false pretenses, shipped of all of the star players, and then broke a legal contract in order to move it away. Sure, the Thunder may have a couple of decent young players, but the team sucks, the owners are loathsome and the fanbase isn’t much better.
Petey Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
“Yglesias’s repeated statistical comparisons are ridiculous. Hint: try comparing Shawn Marion’s numbers in Phoenix and out of Phoenix.”

But such ridiculousness helps Dave Berri sell books, so why should Matthew deviate from such a popular formula, even if it’s been repeatedly debunked?
Brent Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
Totally agree with 11 and 13. The Blazers’ problem last season was defense.
Brent Says:
July 24th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Didn’t we just have this conversation vis-a-vis the Shawn Marion post, the Allen Iverson post, the Millsap, Lee, Aldridge post …? Wonky statistical fixation works in health care and economic stimulus deabtes and baseball. It doesn’t work in basketball. Jeez . . .

The reason there was a conversation specifically about Marion in the first place was because he was very much an exception and not the rule. And really, that’s not the type of argument you want to go with. To me, if you focus on basketball stats that account for pace and minutes played, there’s a lot less player productivity variation than in baseball. For my Indians, for example, every single GD pitcher not named Sabathia or Lee forgot how to throw a GD strike since 2007. That never, ever happens in basketball.

And really, the better contrast is football, I think. It turns out that basketball, at least in the NBA, is pretty simple. Some teams run a little more, some teams use geometry-based offensive systems, some teams care more about positional defense, but there’s ultimately not much any of this does to change player performance. Most teams, especially in the playoffs, play basically the same defensive systems, use tons of pick and roll, and only have a limited playbook. In the NFL, however, systems and schemes can make Jeff Garcia either a pro-bowler or a joke of a QB. Good luck analyzing THAT.
Steko Says:
July 25th, 2009 at 7:05 am
Hollinger PER:

Blake:
2003-04 10.93
2004-05 8.43
2005-06 14.56
2006-07 9.98
2007-08 12.01
2008-09 14.49

Miller:
2002-03 15.65
2003-04 18.87
2004-05 16.59
2005-06 16.4
2006-07 16.18
2007-08 18.57
2008-09 18.71

I think they are a good combo. Miller’s the bigger better defender who can create offense for all 5 positions with his dribble. OTOH having a backup who can stroke the 3 will help against teams that really exploit his lack of range.
Ed Says:
July 27th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
I agree with my fellow sixers fan that Miller helps that team more then Blake does. Miller can spread the floor by taking his man to the hoop and causing the D to collapse on him. He is a much better passer then Blake who is basically a poor mans Kirk Hinrich. The only thing about Miller that gives me pause is his defense. It’s terrible. He can’t cover anyone with any type of speed and most teams will exploit that.

I also agree you can’t rely on numbers to tell the story when it comes to point guards. They do so much more then what shows up on their own stat lines.

Matt Yglesias

Blazers Bid for Andre Miller

21 Responses to “Blazers Bid for Andre Miller”

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