As Usual, Public Wants Lower Deficit Without Cutting Spending or Raising Taxes
According to the latest New York Times poll, the public continues to be ill-informed and hypocritical:
Most Americans continue to want the federal government to focus on reducing the budget deficit rather than spending money to stimulate the national economy, a new New York Times/CBS News poll finds. Yet at the same time, most oppose some proposed solutions for decreasing it.
Fifty-six percent of respondents said that they were not willing to pay more in taxes in order to reduce the deficit, and nearly as many said they were not willing for the government to provide fewer services in areas such as health care, education and defense spending.
This is why I think shrewd politicians don’t spend too much time sweating the details of public opinion about issues. What really matters in recent polling is that as Barack Obama is subject to the usual partisan attacks, his polling honeymoon has vanished and if the economic situation continues to deteriorate he’ll get even less popular. When vulnerable members of congress push the health care vote back into the fall, they’re almost certainly pushing it into a time period during which opinion will be fairly anti-Obama.
29 Responses to “As Usual, Public Wants Lower Deficit Without Cutting Spending or Raising Taxes”
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July 30th, 2009 at 11:32 am
I’ve discovered the art of being a Congressman. It was spelled out by Goethe:
“It’s nicer to think than to do. Nicer to feel than to think. And nicest of all just to look.”
July 30th, 2009 at 11:43 am
In all fairness, it’s fairly likely that a lot of the people who oppose raising taxes support less services and that a lot of the people who oppose less services support less taxes, but that there’s a significant enough minority which IS ill-informed and hypocritical to push the numbers on both views to be over 60%.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Mike Pence is looking good and feeling chipper these days. He’ll make a good President.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Let’s face it. Obama is simply a less intelligent and less extemporaneously articulate Bill Clinton. His political fortunes are tied to the macroeconomic cycle that swept him into office. Unfortunately, he’s chosen to listen Larry Summers, which almost certainly has increased the likelihood that he’s a one-term president.
And, btw, he could assist matters by not putting his foot into it, ala Gates.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Those results are exceedingly rational for the average American.
Taxes should be raised for higher incomes and reduced or maintained for everyone else.
Services should be increased or maintained.
And the structural deficit should be reduced. (Less military spending, taxes on financial transactions).
July 30th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Sigh. It’s numbers like this, confirming the stupidity of the vast majority of my fellow citizens that makes me want to just say “fuck it” and pack up and move to Germany. Oh wait, they have even more restrictive immigration policies than we do. Surely there’s somewhere out there with a sane electorate that will take an over-educated musician/historian?
Personal grousing aside, I think that Matt’s buried the lead again here. Even more disturbing than the hypocritical/delusional internal numbers is the Neo-Hooverite top line conclusion that “Most Americans continue to want the federal government to focus on reducing the budget deficit rather than spending money to stimulate the national economy.” This is utter madness in a time of lagging global demand and represents the greatest risk facing our economic future. The whole country needs a crash-course in Keynesian economics, stat, or it’s going to be a 1937 double-dip all over again.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Matt,
What the poll obviously lacked was the proper follow-up: What is your preferred method for lowering the deficit? Thus, the substantial minority of people that want a smaller deficit without changing either taxes or spending would have to answer. I’m guessing “Magic” or “UFO technology” would be their #1 pick.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:55 am
This is a powerful mandate in favor of inflation.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:56 am
If you assume there isn’t much overlap between the group that is unwilling to raise taxes and the group that is unwilling to cut spending, you’re left with a pretty small group that is unwilling to do anything to reduce the deficit. That’s perfectly consistent with a study showing that most Americans want to reduce the deficit.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
My experience when I ask that question to Republicans is that they just walk away from the debate and refuse to engage anymore. Much like when they can be seen whining and screaming about how Obama’s economic policies are destroying the nation. Well, what would you have done differently if you entered office and inherited the financial mess he inherited?
Silence. Invariably, complete silence.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
I’d like to see a poll that asks Americans if they have EVER, at ANY POINT, felt the TANGIBLE effects of the federal deficit on their daily lives. There seems to be a great passion for defecit reduction in the public, but I am convinced that this is a result of detachment from the deficit, which, for all intents and purposes, is just an amorphous blob of more money than most people can rationally comprehend.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
FXKLM is right, of course, but the conclusion that officials shouldn’t care too much about how the relevant policies poll remains correct, because there is no policy path (raising taxes, lowering spending, or doing nothing about the deficit) which gets majority support in the polls.
By the way, it is a little premature to say that polling will actually be “anti-Obama” in the fall. There is no doubt that post-”green shoots” disappointment with the economy and the slow pace of congressional action on his agenda has caused a drop in his numbers. But in most polls he is still in solid net positive territory, and those last points necessary to switch his numbers to a net negative may prove harder to persuade. Indeed, most of what we have been seeing is still being driven by dropping numbers among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, but that pool is only so large.
Finally, I honestly don’t know how people are going to react to the upcoming economic news: we are likely going to enter a phase when it is widely reported that the general economy is starting a slow recovery, but unemployment rates will continue to creep up in many areas and probably nationally, in part thanks to population growth and increased labor force participation. So I could see people going either way in terms of their sentiment on the economy–and they probably will go either way, so the question is just which way will be bigger.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
And I’ll post this again:
http://www.panarchy.org/bastiat/state.1848.html
An excerpt of The State by Frderic Bastiat
I wish some one would offer a prize, granting a large sum of money, for a good, simple, and intelligent definition of the word “State.”
What an immense service it would confer on society!
The State!
What is it? where is it? what does it do? what ought it to do?
All we know is, that it is a mysterious personage; and, assuredly, it is the most solicited, the most tormented, the most overwhelmed, the most admired, the most accused, the most invoked, and the most provoked of any personage in the world.
I have not the pleasure of knowing my reader but I would stake ten to one that for six months he has been making Utopias, and if so, that he is looking to the State for the realization of them.
And, should the reader happen to be a lady, I have no doubt that she is sincerely desirous of seeing all the evils of suffering humanity remedied, and that she thinks this might easily be done, if the State would only undertake it.
But, alas! that poor unfortunate personage, like Figaro, knows not to whom to listen, nor where to turn. The hundred thousand mouths of the press and of the platform cry out all at once:
“Organize labor and workmen.”
“Repress insolence and the tyranny of capital.”
“Make experiments upon manure and eggs.”
“Cover the country with railways.”
“Irrigate the plains.”
“Plant the hills.”
“Make model farms.”
“Found social workshops.”
“Nurture children.”
“Instruct the youth.”
“Assist the aged.”
“Send the inhabitants of towns into the country.”
“Equalize the profits of all trades.”
“Lend money without interest to all who wish to borrow.”
“Emancipate oppressed people everywhere.”
“Rear and perfect the saddle-horse.”
“Encourage the arts, and provide us musicians, painters, and architects.”
“Restrict commerce, and at the same time create a merchant navy.”
“Discover truth, and put a grain of reason into our heads.”
“The mission of the State is to enlighten, to develop, to extend, to fortify,
to spiritualize, and to sanctify the soul of the people.”
“Do have a little patience, gentlemen” says the State, in a beseeching tone. “I will do what I can to satisfy you, but for this I must have resources. I have been preparing plans for five or six taxes, which are quite new, and not at all oppressive. You will see how pleasurable will be to pay them.”
Then comes a great exclamation:
“No! indeed! where is the merit of doing a thing with resources? Why, it does not deserve the name of State!
So far from loading us with fresh taxes, we would have you withdraw the old ones.
You ought to suppress
“The tobacco tax.”
“The tax on liquors.”
“The tax on letters.”
“Custom-house duties.”
“Patents.”
“Compulsory services”
July 30th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Of course it’s possible that the seemingly-irrational aggregate data are made up of large, non-overlapping groups of individuals with differing but nonetheless rational views on the importance of deficit reduction and the ways to achieve it. But is it likely?
July 30th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
What anonymous said at #2. It is strange to argue that the public is ill-informed and hypocritical if in fact most people have coherent views on the matter. But that’s perfectly plausible. Nearly 9 out of 20 Americans are willing to raise taxes, and nearly 9 out of 20 Americans are willing to cut services. These two groups could be largely exclusive (how many people have you met who really want more taxes *and* fewer services?), so that only 10-30% are not willing to do either (maybe they don’t think the deficit is a problem, or that focusing on deficit reduction is a bad idea right now).
Politicians may spend too much time sweating the details of public opinion, but not on this issue. Ordinary people are right to be wary about tax increases or benefit cuts aimed at some long-term future good. I’m a liberal, but this idea that things would be great if only people didn’t hate tax increases so much, is dumb. Be willing to raise taxes, but you better be ready to show some tangible benefit for it. And yes, Democrats should not worry about raising taxes on the rich; they weren’t voting for you anyway.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
By the way, it may be worth looking at Pollster’s national charts for both the Right Direction/Wrong Track polls and the Economy: Getting Better/Getting Worse polls.
There is a somewhat similar pattern in each chart (not surprisingly). Until about mid-May, sentiment had been improving, but then the trends turned negative. This is what I am referring to as the “post-green-shoots disappointment” effect. Just recently, though, there are preliminary indications of things turning back around again. Indeed, if you turn up the sensitivity using the Tools function on those charts, this becomes even more apparent (although of course you are also then increasing the possibility of random error).
Again, it is way too soon to tell for sure where all this is heading. But it is possible that the incipient general economic turnaround will help improve sentiment at least a bit–of course maybe to be followed by another disappointment phase as unemployment continues to drag on, then maybe to be followed by another cycle of good news-bad news, and so on. But again, my point is just that it isn’t at all obvious how this will play out as far as Obama’s popularity is concerned.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
As others have pointed out this does not mean that lots of people hold incoherent view on this issue. What it does mean is that there is no large majority in agreement on what to do. In the absence of a clear public consensus, the tendency of Congress will be to drift along as we have been.
July 30th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Other bloggers tend to credit their commentators when they raise good points. Matt, of course, prefers to wait until he can find another blogger to credit instead.
July 30th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
This problem won’t be solved until our major creditors (e.g. China) balk at buying Treasuries at existing yields, so as to send interest rates far higher. As long as D.C. can borrow cheaply, its the path of least resistance for the spineless GOPocratic whores.
July 30th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Ah, the joys of thinking at the margin. I was about to make this point, until I saw the update. BTW, we call the people holding these incoherent views “centrists”, also swing votes. We are all hostages to the ignorant, the stupid, and the insane; under this system, anyway. I would be truly hilarious if it weren’t so fucking sad.
July 30th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
The mob arrives outside Mayor Quimby’s office, shouting “Down with taxes! Down with taxes!”
Quimby: Are those morons getting dumber or just louder?
Assistant: [checks his clipboard] Dumber, sir. They want the bear patrol but they won’t pay taxes for it.
July 30th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Actually I think the two responses are coherent. “Government services,” to any individual, is not co-extensive with “everything the government does”. For most of us, for example, the hugely bloated defense/industrial complex (now accounting for >50% of global military spending) does nothing. I would be perfectly happy to see government spending on that fall by, say, 80%. And then my taxes could go down, too, while spending on other government services that actually benefit me could go up.
July 30th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
You, sir, may well be one of “the ignorant, the stupid, and the insane” to whom I referred in #20. I must grudgingly admit, however, that you may also be, nominally, correct.
July 30th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
It always fascinated me that in 1942 we went from the depths of the Great Depression to full employment and a roaring economy within six months. But we are not allowed talk about it. The subject is verboten.
The Chinese get it. They don’t talk about it but they get it. China pretends they are United States and every year is 1942. Too smart China. They still do nasty things, like executing criminals at a faster clip than Junior did as the Guber of Texas, but they sure know how to fight an imaginary war and keep their economy booming.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Anonymous At Work –
Actually, people have done polling on it. And it’s fairly dismal – people think we can cut our way out by cutting NASA.
On the other hand, if you ask people what kinds of taxes they’re willing to see increase, there is willingness to raise alcohol and (I believe) oil taxes.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Max –
Close. According to Michael Darby’s revised numbers in “Three and A Half Million Workers Have Been Mislaid,” unemployment was down to 11.3% in 1939, 9.5% in 1940, and 6% in 1941.
From 1942 on, we drop from 6% to 1% and below, which attests to the success of military Keynesianism, but “the depths of the Great Depression” isn’t quite right. The depths were in 1933. 33-37 were growth years, as were 39-41.
July 30th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
You don’t even need a sliver of people to be hypocritical or uninformed (though I assume many are). There is a hell of a lot of spending which people don’t really think of as service. How about having a year without bank bailouts, auto bailouts, wars of choice, and stimulus packages. From that point, cut out a lot of military spending which isn’t “service”, and you can have a balanced budget. You could even balance the budget with the Bush tax cuts at that point.
July 30th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Re: In all fairness, it’s fairly likely that a lot of the people who oppose raising taxes support less services
Possibly yes, but do these people support cutting the Big Things– like defense and Social Security? Some may, but most probably do not. Many of them rant about “foreign aid” and other piddling expenses instead.
August 6th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
[...] spending on government services, earned mockery across the political spectrum, from Allahpundit to Matt Yglesias, with the latter calling Americans “ill-informed and hypocritical.” However, as Brendan [...]