Social Democrats Hammered in European Parliament Elections
European Parliament elections are contested country-by-country by national parties. In other words, in France the Parti Socialiste runs against the UMP, and then separately in Germany the Social Democrats run against the Christian Democrats. But the MEPs do sit in cross-national blocs. And in the voting that finished up this weekend, the cross national Party of European Socialism, representing the mainstream center-left parties of Europe, got really hammered. The Greens picked up seats. The far-right picked up seats. The Euroskeptics picked up seats. And the main center-right bloc, called the European People’s Party, picked up a bunch of seats. The ALDE bloc of centrists and liberals basically held even. And the social democrats lost out big time. This, courtesy of the BBC, is what the new European Parliament will look like:
And here’s how it went in 2004:
It’s not clear that this has any dramatic implications for EU issues as such, since ultimately the balance of power remains the same. But the terrible result the Labour Party put up in the UK—third place—appears to be deepening the political crisis there. Meanwhile, with American conservatives complaining about incipient socialism in the US at the very time Europe is moving toward the right, can the day be far off when conservatives start threatening to move to Sweden?
40 Responses to “Social Democrats Hammered in European Parliament Elections”
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June 8th, 2009 at 11:34 am
It’s easy for pissed off Europeans to cast a protest vote against the left, because they can do so safe in the knowledge that the Social-Democratic consensus that regulates their individual national economies is safe — guarded as it is by the continued strong presence of Social Democrats in national parliaments. Moreover, no center-right party in any national European parliament is, as far as know, in any position to inflict American-style social darwinism on its citizenry.
June 8th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Clearly you haven’t been paying close enough attention to the Cato blog in the last week or so, Matt.
“Is Obama Making America like Sweden?,” by David Boaz
June 8th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Most importantly, the Pirate Party now has two seats in European Parliament.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/features/swedish-pirate-party-gains-votes-in-european-elections-1699670.html
June 8th, 2009 at 11:39 am
I’m curious, given that the so-called “conservatives” in Europe aren’t exactly clamoring for an end to public health care, public education, unemployment benefits, and six weeks of paid vacation, why are dumbass American Conservatives proclaiming that Europe is now Right-Wing?
June 8th, 2009 at 11:42 am
That’s strange. In the middle of a global economic crisis created by right-wing ideology, Europeans decide to reward right-wing parties.
Most astonishing is Italy: how in hell is Berlusconi still winning elections?
June 8th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Get Cato to back Swedish health care as well and we’ll all be better off.
June 8th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Mondays are brutal enough without Euro-wonkery on my preferred websites.
June 8th, 2009 at 11:49 am
This why Social Democrats are worse than useless. They by their core principles have to open the door for the insane right to return to power, and liberalism just isn’t worth that price.
June 8th, 2009 at 11:58 am
OK, count me confused. The PES lost seats, but so did almost everyone else, because of the renumbering. The overall left held even in notional terms as is apparent from the charts. The big winners were the Independents (ie the explicit anti-Europeans), the Greens and the ALDE.
June 8th, 2009 at 11:59 am
Does this mean that now the European Parliament will be temporarily treated as if it exists and is significant, whereas before it was mostly ignored?
June 8th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
And the main center-right bloc, called the European People’s Party, picked up a bunch of seats.
By going from 282 to 264, according to these graphs?
June 8th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Indeed, by American conservative standards the centre-right are a bunch of deadly socialists.
I think it is hard to be European these days. Labour richly deserved to get its ass kicked (on account of the Iraq War, though, and because of inflating the economy with cheap credit, not because of the expense scandal,) and there does not seem to be much of an alternative (i would have voted Green if I had been in England, though). The Social Democrats of Germany have also moved too far into yuppy territory. Die Linke, which I would almost vote for, still needs to clear itself of its less-pleasant old Regime DDR links.
This will all sort itself out. I hope people learn to use their votes in the future. No excuse for not voting.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
Does this mean that now the European Parliament will be temporarily treated as if it exists and is significant, whereas before it was mostly ignored?
There will be a momentary burst of interest when the newly-elected fascist bigots show up for their first day, but that’s about it.
(For all the MP expenses scandals, it’s worth noting that Nigel Farage of UKIP managed to chisel £2m out of the EuroParl in “allowances” that were used to finance the party’s campaign.)
June 8th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
That’s strange. In the middle of a global economic crisis created by right-wing ideology, Europeans decide to reward right-wing parties.
Well, as noted, UK Labour has been taking a beating, partly for reasons unrelated to the crisis. And they were the ones running the show when the crisis hit. Their poor performance during the crisis has more to do with the fact that “New Labour” is itself center-right on economics, but there isn’t a way to make this distinction at the EP level (or the ballot box in the UK, for that matter).
Still, since this wasn’t a solely UK phenomenon, we’re brought back to Jasper:
It’s easy for pissed off Europeans to cast a protest vote against the left
Which is certainly true, as far as it goes, since the EP is unlikely (as of yet) to completely dismantle national safety nets. But it does raise the question: Why would Europeans be pissed-off at the left? Because running the European economy into the ground at the behest of bankers and union-busters isn’t actually part of the left’s platform. (A vote for Euroskeptics does make sense, but that’s not the same thing as “blaming the left” by empowering those most responsible for the current damage.) So France’s Socialists and Germany’s Social Democrats take a bath, because they’re somehow to blame? Yes, I know that over here, the smoking ruins left by Republican governance is all the fault of Democrats, but at least Democrats have actually regained power recently.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Doesn’t anyone else find the name “European Peoples’ Party” slightly ridiculous?
June 8th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
I also agree with Ginger Yellow – not nearly as big a shift as the media seems to claim. The hard left and the Greens both grew in strength.
If the situation had been reversed, and the Centre-Right had declined, the media would have been discussing how the slight decline of the Centre-Right revealed the essential conservativism of the European electorate.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
I also agree with Ginger Yellow – not nearly as big a shift as the media seems to claim.
Agreed. What you do see is a very low turnout — 40-odd percent overall — where the anti-EU brigade and supporters of other minor parties turned out most strongly. Which creates a real legitimacy problem for the EuroParl, given that its elections usually take place in off years when the impetus is to give the incumbents a kicking. (France is an exception here, mainly because the PS is busily destroying itself.)
Ireland was interesting too, because the governing parties got pulverised, and the legitimacy of the Fianna Fail / Green coalition is under question. But so did Declan Ganley’s newly-created Libertas bloc, which had candidates in a number of countries campaigning to scuttle the Lisbon treaty.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Okay, stopping to look at the numbers after posting a comment (a long and glorious internet tradition), things are slightly less bewildering. Thanks to Ginger Yellow and Cryptic Ned for pointing things out.
The EPP lost ground, it just was punished less than the “Socialists.” And in the UK and Spain, they’re taking the blame for poor economic conditions. Meanwhile, gains for ALDE aren’t entirely inconsistent with gains for “center-right,” since they have a large contingent of “classical liberals” and centrists. But they’re also a valid “none-of-the-above” choice (e.g., UK’s Liberal Democrats).
Still, EPP remains by far the largest bloc, and is probably not sweating over a Red-Green-Dark Red alliance challenging the status quo. And Independence/Democracy actually got beaten up, too, so neofascism is apparently more fashionable than straight Euroskepticism; the UEN and Ind/Dem switch in positions is probably of more concern than the Great War of the Middle Way. And hey, the actual Left was punished less than the other parties that lost ground, so perhaps there’s hope for Mr. mcmanus after all.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
The correct interpretation is that the center parties (SD’s and EPP’s) both declined, with both outliers rising.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Yes, if you ignore the fact that the Left Party and the Euroskeptics both lost seats, and that the Liberal Party is centrist, then this is spot-on.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
This actually kind of bothers me, because it signifies that the will isn’t there to fight internally to turn the parties around, and I do think that it shows a dangerously immature level of political behavior among left voters – we have neo-fascists in the European Parliament and the Left is out of power virtually across the continent, and now is the time to punish the Left?
As we say here in America, “elections have consequences.” Not just when we win.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Glad to say that Sweden isn’t a GOP wonderland yet, the conservative parties didn’t recieve further support. What actually happend here was that instead of having a EuroParl election campaign about if EU is a good idea or not(like it has been for the last thee elections) it now was about domestic economic policies. Without a discussion about EU and where and what you want to go with it and so on the field was up for parties like the Pirates, the Greens and a liberal strong pro-EU party.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
we have neo-fascists in the European Parliament
I’m not aware of any european party actually called “neo-fascist”, and with their anti-immigration and crypto-racist policies most of those far-right politicians would feel at home in the Republican party.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Does this mean that now the European Parliament will be temporarily treated as if it exists and is significant, whereas before it was mostly ignored?
Actually the power of EU parliament has grown continuously.
June 8th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
NOt only that, but both SDs and EPPs lost nearly the same number of seats, 20 for the SDs and 18 for the EPP.
June 8th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
We only reason the EPP lost out is because the Tories in the UK have left that group and are going to try to form a new, more anti-federalist grouping with a load of wingnutty and more or less racist parties mostly from eastern Europe.
June 8th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
The EPP didn’t really lose seats guys. What happened is that the UK Conservative Party (25 seats) used to bloc with the EPP, but have left them in the hope of starting their own centre-right pro-devolution group, and Forza Italia (38 seats) has dissolved. Now that Popolo della Liberta have officially announced they’re going to bloc with the EPP, Matt’s conclusions are broadly right, and when you add back in the Lega Nord’s 9 seats (they have shifted to EUN) it all adds up. The Socialists on the other hand have maintained a broadly similar membership (apart from 22 seats of PD in Italy, which can’t make its mind up between the socialists and the liberals), and most of their losses are real electoral losses.
June 8th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Actually the power of EU parliament has grown continuously.
That doesn’t mean the EU parliament won’t continue to be mostly ignored. Or only covered in the US media by English journalists rabidly anti-European.
June 8th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
That doesn’t mean the EU parliament won’t continue to be mostly ignored.
Well, if it’s ignored by the ignorant, there’s not much that can be done about that. Anybody who’s been paying attention will have to acknowledge that its power continues to grow.
June 8th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
According to the BBC’s own chart the EPP LOST 18 seats to the Socialists 20. Although perhaps this is because Britain’s Conservative Party has decided not to caucus with the other center-right parties of the EPP, accounting for some of the high growth of unaffiliated MEPs (along with the smattering of seats picked up by the far right).
June 8th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
The EPP didn’t really lose seats guys. What happened is that the UK Conservative Party (25 seats) used to bloc with the EPP, but have left them in the hope of starting their own centre-right pro-devolution group, and Forza Italia (38 seats) has dissolved. Now that Popolo della Liberta have officially announced they’re going to bloc with the EPP, Matt’s conclusions are broadly right, and when you add back in the Lega Nord’s 9 seats (they have shifted to EUN) it all adds up. \\
That’s quite right. You have to add 25 seats to whatever number the EPP has, to account for the defection of the British Conservatives’ 25 seats won this in this election. After all, the Tories are broadly centre-right.
What’s most striking, however, is Poland. The EPP group in Poland, I believe it was Civic Platform, got fifty-one percent of the vote, in a proportional system.
That’s incredible.
Meanwhile, the fact that Zapetero (who’s a obnoxious, glib prick) lost to the centre-right Popular Party, despite the fact that (the highly unappealing) Rajoy has no chance of winning in a real, national election, and with nearly 20% unemployement, is telling.
Italy, a similar story.
June 8th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Why oh why:
The British National Party won 2 seats. They are neo-fascists. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were others, there certainly are similar fringe parties in Italy and other EU nations, but I don’t know enough about those countries’ political parties to tell.
June 8th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
According to the BBC’s own chart the EPP LOST 18 seats to the Socialists 20. Although perhaps this is because Britain’s Conservative Party has decided not to caucus with the other center-right parties of the EPP, accounting for some of the high growth of unaffiliated MEPs (along with the smattering of seats picked up by the far right).
The difficulty with the system as used in a lot of areas is that they tend to, very markedly, under-reflect the swings in popular support. For example, anyone in Britain could smell Labour’s unpopularity in the air, and yet Labour still only lost like 5 seats, and this is counting the fact that British overall lost 8 seats because of the readjustment. The huge upswing for the UKIP (despite the poll numbers saying a +0.3% upswing, the sense of breakthrough for the UKIP is incredibly palpable when you watch the results come in) is reflected only in one seat. The Social Democrats clearly lost ground against the Conservatives but actually gained a seat.
This tends to be a problem with proportional systems in general, as very palpable swings in popular will and popular feeling are deflected by things like turnout, weather, etc., where as in a plurality system a seismic shift would be captured in a plurality. Labour slipped to fifth in the Home Counties, and yet still retained its one seat, when in fact its support in that area is now completely, utterly negligible, psychologically a rounding error that is ignored by just about everyone.
June 8th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
It’s not new, however. In times of crisis Europe swings right. And this is a full-blown crisis, alright.
What is hopeful, however, is the shift from the socialist/social democratic (if only in name) left to the much more appealing classic liberal/centrist Liberals, who are pro-European and tend to be quite innovative and not bound by old prejudices, like for example Germany’s Free Democrats (which won huge, nearly doubling its seats). The Liberal group leader, Watson, was on BBC, and said that it was a clear sign that voters rejected socialism.
June 8th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
it was a clear sign that voters rejected socialism.
The EU has never been and never will be “socialist” in any meaningful sense of the word. Christ almighty, the UK has been governed by a nominally “socialist” party for twelve years and London by a “socialist” mayor for 8 – yet, I can assuage any fears people might have that capitalism isn’t alive and well here, come to London and see for yourself. The correct term to describe the predominant ideology in the EU would be “social democracy” and “mixed economy” – and these are embraced by the major conservative parties as well.
June 8th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
The EU has never been and never will be “socialist” in any meaningful sense of the word.
The EU is socialist in the modern sense of the word. If you don’t know what socialism means today, take a look at which parties are members of the Socialist International and think hard.
One thing to remember is that center-right parties in Europe are or were often “christian-democrats” with a tradition of support for a welfare state – not your average free-market ideologues, except in the East and a few anomalies (like in the UK since Thatcher).
June 8th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Absolutely. It’s the Peoples Party of Europe. “European People’s Party.” Fucking splitters.
June 8th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
The EU is socialist in the modern sense of the word. If you don’t know what socialism means today, take a look at which parties are members of the Socialist International and think hard.
FYI, I’m a member of one of these parties, so I don’t need a lecture on the Socialist International, thank you very much. Instead of harping on about the terms these parties use to describe themselves, you might want to take a look at their actual policies.
June 8th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Novakant,
Precisely.
Why oh Why,
Hmm, it seems like the “Socialist” International has a different definition of socialism than the United “Socialist” Party of Venezuela, or the “Socialist” Republic of Viet Nam. Who is right?
I prefer to use the historical meaning of what socialism has always meant. I.e. _social_ ownership of the means of production (at least, on a large scale). Thus the government of Venezuela is closer to real socialism than the government of Britain. I wouldn’t call John Shelby Spong a Christian in any meaningful sense, nor would I call Tony Blair meaningfully a socialist.
June 12th, 2009 at 9:38 am
[...] That’s what Plain must count on, and Matthew Yglesias provides details: [...]