Political Journalism Just Can’t Quit the Ecological Fallacy
Many cars (cc photo by Sylvar)
One favorite trick of American political journalism is to notice that some states are liberal and some are conservative, then to notice that the liberal states have some characteristics, and then make inferences about the characteristics of individual liberals by attributing the qualities of the states in which they reside to them. For example, since wealthier states are more liberal, you can assert that liberal voters are richer than salt-of-the-earth conservative types. This mode of inference, though popular, is also mistaken. It’s known as the “ecological fallacy.” But that never seems to stop it. Thus, for example, there’s this from The Washington Times:
The Volvo-driving liberal and the redneck in a Chevy pickup are long-held stereotypes. But a map of car ownership – produced by R.L. Polk & Co. – overlaid on the electoral map reveals the surprising extent to which how we vote corresponds with what we drive.
Blue-staters on each coast, from Los Angeles to Seattle and from Boston to the District, are the most likely to drive foreign cars. Domestic brands have their highest levels of market share in the mostly conservative interior of the country.
Now as it happens, it does appear to be true that there are strong correlations out there between individual voting behavior and individual consumption patterns. So there’s probably some legitimate results to be found in this area if you really look into it. More enlightening than the “foreign vs domestic” issue would probably be to look at kinds of cars—who buys trucks and SUVs versus who buys conventional cars.
18 Responses to “Political Journalism Just Can’t Quit the Ecological Fallacy”
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June 30th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Is the Washington Times even a reputable paper any longer since Bush 1 crowned the Rev.Moon king of America.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Actually, the bulk of the article moves away from this tack altogether, pointing out the raft of exceptions [blue Michigan most obviously, but also blue Minnesota] and cross-cutting variables [e.g. generation]. The basic evidence it draws upon is a Gallup poll that in fact addresses political preference directly, not through a spurious correlation with state of residence. The WT may lay itself open by leading with this, but your characterization of the article as a whole is unfair.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
I’m digging the random photo of the old Schmitt Music mural. I like that building.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
See also “Are Republicans More Likely to Have Affairs and Get Divorces?”, John Sides, The Monkey Cage.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
While consumption habits might be part of this data, wouldn’t the fact that the number of metropolitan areas are higher on each coast also factor into this. Presumably, you’re more likely to have more foreign car dealerships in a larger city than a small town. I know the town I went to undergraduate in, pop. 17,000, had domestic car dealerships, but they didn’t have a Toyota.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
It’s kind of funny to see the Korean Rev Moon owned and subsidized Washington Times making a big deal out of consumers who purchased foreign-owned products. do you think they have enough self-awareness to get the joke? LOL
June 30th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
I tend to not favor overly-broad generalizations but I think the hypothesis has some validity.
Red State dumbshits do tend to buy pieces of crap that fall apart –because they are too fucking stupid to know any better.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
What’s funny about this is that the only person I actually know who works for the Washington Times drives a Volvo. And he, not surprisingly, is no liberal.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
My wife’s uncle owns that parking lot in Minneapolis.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
I agree with MR Yglesias .I think that the whole “blue state red state” cultural thing is overblown.
First of all I am willing to bet that there are more liberals in Austin , Texas [ an obviouse red state]than there is in western Maryland [a blue state].
I happen to believe in free market conservatism .I fail to see why this means that I should like nascar or Toby Keith.I actually have some liberal friends that DO like nascar and Toby Keith . Cultural tastes can be an indicator of political beliefs .But not always.If it was I would probably be considered a flaming liberal .
Too often seriouse political debates in this country get turned into a political version of the 80’s movie ” The Breakfast Club”.With everyone playing to stereotype.
I find it funny and a little sad when I read some conservative columnists extoll the virtues of nascar just so they can achieve some sort of bizzare “working class street cred”.
It’s actually an insult to most blue collar whites in my opinion.Because it reduces us to a silly stereotype .My own opinion is that is one reason why Mcain lost the election.When he talked about blue collar whites he seemed to feel that we were retards.Obama on the other hand did not talk down to blue collar whites.It should be pointed out that Obama got more white male votes than John Kerry did.
Either way i wish we could get away from the stupid cultural stereotypes.If someone does not agree with me on the need for free market capitalism, fine. I might even agree with their criticsisms[ I am fairly pragmatic on most issues]. But I get sick of them ridiculing conservatives for supposedly liking nascar .
It is equally silly for conservatives to keep throwing around the “effette liberal” stereotypes around.. Especially when very few of the top republican spokesmen are actually from small towns or have a blue collar background.
I would also just like to say that i am a conservative and a Christain . And I feel that any conservative that suggests that conservatives are better Christains than liberals ,or that God is a Republican, is commiting the worst kind of blasphemy .
And I would still like to know why some conservatives lump homophobia in with basic conservative beliefs.My own view is that most top republicans are not really homophobic on a personal level. They just figure all blue collar whites are, so they pander to us. This makes it all of the more disgusting. Not only do they not respect homosexuals, they do not respect blue collar whites as well.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
“Red State dumbshits do tend to buy pieces of crap that fall apart –because they are too fucking stupid to know any better.”
What’s with the hate Don? Someone piss in your Wheaties this morning?
June 30th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
My own view is that most top republicans are not really homophobic on a personal level.
My view is that most top Republicans, certainly upper class Republican voters, ARE homophobic in an almost instinctual way, but are fine with the actual gay men they know and socialize with. This is also probably more true of Democratic heterosexuals than they like to admit.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
My own view is that most top republicans are not really homophobic on a personal level.
Particularly in the Senate.
June 30th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
I hate all the surface parking lots in MPLS. They kill density required for true urbanism in Minnesota.
June 30th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Re: I would also just like to say that i am a conservative and a Christain .
You may be conservative, Pete, but you are not a Conservative ™. The political Conservative movement long ago ceased to be conservative, becoming instead radical reactionaries. In the 1790s they would be more at home with Robbespierre than with Burke.
June 30th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
Hey, that’s one of my favorite pieces of public art. The music is an excerpt from Ravel’s “Scarbo,” the third movement of the piano piece Gaspard de la nuit—the most difficult piece ever written for piano at the time it was premiered in 1908. The mural is done in astounding detail, reproducing the music’s engraving in near-perfect fidelity. What a weird, cool idea. I used to live in Mpls and enjoyed walking past it whenever possible.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
Some years ago I liberated an American made truck from a prison dealership in that leftist enclave of Santa Monica. Now it is safe back behind the Orange Curtain. Unfortunately Volvo has infiltrated and established outposts in Buena Park, Santa Ana and Irvine.
June 30th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
It’s worth pointing out that those foreign cars were originally (before they set up plants here) all imports that came by ship to ports that (naturally) were on the coasts, and the foreign carmakers tended to set up their American subsidiaries near their ports (L.A. in the case the Japanese and N.Y./N.J. in the case of the Europeans), and thus tended to develop their dealer networks from the coasts inward.