Playoff Predictions Retrospective
Time to take a look back at my NBA playoff predictions:
In the East, first round we’ll see Cleveland beat Detroit, Boston beat Chicago, Orlando beat Philadelphia, and Miami beat Atlanta. Cleveland beats Miami in round two, and thanks to Kevin Garnett’s injury Orlando beats Boston. Then Cleveland beats Orlando.
In the west, first round we’ll see LA beat Utah, Denver beat New Orleans, Dallas beat San Antonio, and Portland beat Houston. In round two, LA beats Portland (but it’ll be valuable experience for this promising young squad) and Denver beats Dallas. LA will beat Denver in a thoroughly non-exciting conference finals.
I had Cleveland as the overall champions. Clearly, not the best set of predictions. But, um, I really nailed that LA over Utah prediction. I guess the Lakers will win now.
56 Responses to “Playoff Predictions Retrospective”
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June 2nd, 2009 at 10:49 am
As close as that series was, I think I’m on solid ground stating that the Celtics would have won if Leon Powe had gotten Brian Scalabrine’s minutes.
I grossly overestimated the talent of the eleven other guys on Cleveland’s roster, and underestimated the Majic’s shooters.
June 2nd, 2009 at 10:54 am
My estimation of the Celtics has gone way up. They came very close to beating Orlando, whereas Cleveland was clearly outclassed. I agree that if the Celtics had Powe, it would have been different. Even without Powe, if Ray Allen had played at his normal level, the Celtics would have won.
I pick Orlando over LA in 6.
June 2nd, 2009 at 10:56 am
I grossly overestimated the talent of the eleven other guys on Cleveland’s roster, and underestimated the Majic’s shooters.
I wonder if it’s that or if we all just have problems doing the math of matchups.
Lakers in six. I still don’t believe in magic.
June 2nd, 2009 at 10:56 am
Clearly MY’s worst prediction:
“LA will beat Denver in a thoroughly non-exciting conference finals.”
whereas it was a nail-biter until the final game. Watching the Lakers suddenly wake up then (actually midway through game 5), I’d pick them in 6.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:00 am
Well part of the lesson here, as Hollinger keeps writing now, is that matchups really, really matter. As a Celtics fan, I actually thought prior to the Eastern semifinals that the Bulls might matchup better with the Magic because the Bulls forward complement was better suited to the Shard/Hedo matchup terrordome.
On the other hand, even as a Celtics fan, I’m uncertain of where the balance is between “Perkins is a really, really good defender” and “the Cavs’ big men are really, really bad at defending everybody on the Orlando Magic”.
I’m obligated to root for Orlando over the Lakers, but it kind of kills me because I dislike Dwight Howard (in irrational, personality-based terms) and think that of the young superstars in the leage (and he is a superstar) he’s the most overrated by far. Oh well. GO MAGIC.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:03 am
The reason Cleveland looked so good during the regular season had a lot to do with LeBron’s win every night attitude. I don’t think it’s necessary for an NBA champion to have that attitude as some recent Laker and Spur title teams demonstrated, but it can also work as the Celtics demonstrated last season. But one thing that can happen is that you get a very vulnerable squad like Cleveland this is just not as good as their regular season wins or plus/minus indicates. One red flag of that kind of squad is poor performance against the best teams in the league, which Cleveland did have. So ultimately, yeah, Cleveland’s supporting cast was overrated and will probably need upgrading (no matter how good LeBron plays) before they are really favorites to win a title.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:04 am
“I guess the Lakers will win now.”
I’d put the true odds on the series as 60/40 favoring Orlando.
Obviously, given the odds in the real world, Orlando is the correct betting play. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see LA win.
It’s really hard to see how the crucial matchups are going to play out. Can Odom and Ariza consistently bother Hedo and Rashard out to the perimeter? Can Pietrus and Lee keep Kobe from drawing fouls on Dwight? Is Bynum going to get better the further in time we get from his injury? Can Rafer exploit the Lakers’ weakness at the PG position at all?
Interesting stuff.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:08 am
“I grossly overestimated the talent of the eleven other guys on Cleveland’s roster, and underestimated the Majic’s shooters.”
The Magic did indeed match up well against Cleveland, but the Cavs had game 4 won on the road. Mike Brown’s idea to put Ben Wallace on Rashard at the end of regulation will go down as one of the most important coaching fuckups of all time. That single idiotic decision cost the Cavs the series.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:12 am
It kills me because 1) Orlando is such a fake city, not a real city at all, and certainly not a real sports city like Boston, Philly, or LA, and 2) they play in the damn “Amway Center.”
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:12 am
Yeah, I didn’t think matchups mattered that much. But I can’t convince myself that Cleveland was better than Orlando and Orlando just got “lucky” or something or other. My God that was an uphill battle for C-town the whole way and they never looked in command.
The Lakers really ought to be able to handle the Magic much better. I seriously doubt Jameer Nelson can help much if he does come back, so barring that I think Gasol/Bynum will be vastly superior defending Howard than Z/Varejao. Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza should have no trouble with Lewis and Turkoglu. LA is very much accostommed to Orlando’s pace. And of course shutting down Kobe is much different than clogging the lane to stop LeBron. Should be a good series, though.
But man-oh-man the Magic should start Pietrus.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:16 am
petey, please: orlando kicked cleveland’s butt. period. end of story.
matt, it’s funny: having called denver over the lakers, i snapped on game 5 right at the end of the 3rd quarter as the nuggets were turning the ball over on 4 consecutive possessions and i said “guess i got that one wrong!”
as for lakers-orlando, we get to find out how good bynum actually is. i’m betting, only fair….
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:16 am
The Lakers were never able to defend against threes and drives for stretches longer than a few minutes in the Denver series – defending the 3 was what killed them against Orlando during the season. I don’t see the Lakers’ B team that Jackson’s intent on playing to start multiple quarters a game being able to hold off the Magic as well as the Nuggets. I guess I’d favor the Lakers if Kobe’s able to play more minutes than he did in Denver (and obviously plays well, and the bench shows up like it did in games 5 & 6). I don’t think the Lakers have much of an answer for Howard other than trying to get him in foul trouble; their regular season matchups bear that out.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:20 am
“petey, please: orlando kicked cleveland’s butt. period. end of story.”
Orlando won the series. So, yes, they kicked Cleveland’s butt.
But if Brown hadn’t insanely decided to cover Rashard with Ben Wallace on the crucial play of game 4, then Cleveland would have won the series and thus kicked Orlando’s butt.
Sometimes, the outcome of a series really does come down to a single play.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:29 am
I think Gasol/Bynum will be vastly superior defending Howard than Z/Varejao
I really don’t see that this is the case. Howard had good numbers in their first regular season game and great numbers in their second (his minutes were limited in the first by foul trouble). I think the Laker’s best bet with Howard is to be very aggressive and foul more often than not; better that than trying to double and giving up outside shots.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:30 am
“I guess the Lakers will win now.”
Nooooooo! You keep your bad juju predictions and endorsements away from my team, Yglesias. I saw what you did to John Edwards.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:30 am
petey, i don’t want to hijack the thread, but orlando outplayed cleveland by considerably more than one play at the end of game 4. i’m not denying there is such a thing as a series decided by one play, but this wasn’t one of them….
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:47 am
Hey, trying to predict the Lakers’ commitment to defense over any stretch of time is a muug’s game, and three point shooters can mysteriously go cold for two or three games. Believe it or not, I don’t know what will happen.
I believed last year that Garnett was the league’s MVP, and events this year have made me believe it more strongly. The worst part of being a sports fan is feeling cheated out of entertainment due to injury, and boy, do I feel that right now.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:47 am
Hey, trying to predict the Lakers’ commitment to defense over any stretch of time is a muug’s game, and three point shooters can mysteriously go cold for two or three games. Believe it or not, I don’t know what will happen.
I believed last year that Garnett was the league’s MVP, and events this year have made me believe it more strongly. The worst part of being a sports fan is feeling cheated out of entertainment due to injury, and boy, do I feel that right now.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:53 am
No matter how good one player is (James) if the rest of the team is standing around watching you’re not going to get it done. Cleveland was a better team when James was dishing the ball to other players, taking appropriate rests on the bench, and then driving to the hoop to force Howard to foul. However, James seemed to wear down and was taking long three-point attempts towards the end while the rest of Cleveland stood back to admire the shots. James is a great passer because you have to guard him tight, or double team, and prevent him from driving, which leaves someone who is active open for a shot. In any case, I predict Orlando in seven.
June 2nd, 2009 at 11:59 am
And if Lebron doesn’t make a lucky 3 ball at the end of game 2, it’s a sweep. Additionally, if the queen had balls, she’d be the king.
All the talk of Orlando’s performance vs. the Celtics ignores the fact that the Orlando of the Cavs series >> the Orlando of the Celtics series. If there was an instant rematch, the Magic probably win in 5. Orlando grew up a lot in that Celtics series and became a better team as a result. Same goes for the Lakers after their Denver and Houston series.
This is a close series and a great set of matchups. I think the Lakers take it in 6, but I would not be surprised with an upset. I see this as a 60-40, in the Lakers’ favor. The experience in the players and coaching is the difference.
Interesting stat, since the NBA went to the 2-3-2 format (which I despise), no road team has won a game 7 on the road and only Miami won after losing the first two games on the road.
June 2nd, 2009 at 12:13 pm
20: This is because in the NBA there is anti-momentum. It is harder to win 3 in a row against a quality squad then it is to win on the road. That’s my take on the situation, anyhow. If you don’t split the first two that means the underdog has to sweep at home or the last two on the road. And either is damn hard to do. Most underdog winners are just outright better and can pull off the split in the first two. That Miami team was able to win by taking advantage of a loophole in the NBA officiating that Nowitzki cannot use (since he is not really good at driving to the basket).
June 2nd, 2009 at 12:29 pm
If you lose the first two games of a seven game series, that means you need to win 4 of 5 to come back and win the series. That should be hard to do — why is that surprising?
June 2nd, 2009 at 12:39 pm
But if Brown hadn’t insanely decided to cover Rashard with Ben Wallace on the crucial play of game 4, then Cleveland would have won the series and thus kicked Orlando’s butt.
This is ridiculous.
The Magic were inbounding the ball on their end of the court with 6 seconds left, down by 1. It’s only because Rashard shot so quickly that LeBron had a chance to tie at the other end. If Wallace wasn’t on Rashard, Orlando would be running a set play for the game-winning shot at home.
June 2nd, 2009 at 12:48 pm
The Cavs were also one miracle shot away from being swept in four.
June 2nd, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Because it is, or seems to be, more common in earlier rounds for teams to come back after dropping the first two games on the road.
June 2nd, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Mike Brown’s idea to put Ben Wallace on Rashard at the end of regulation will go down as one of the most important coaching fuckups of all time. That single idiotic decision cost the Cavs the series.
Like everyone else, I think this makes much too much of a single play. Orlando significantly outplayed Cleveland through out the series – bad coaching on one play did not decide the series.
OTOH, I think there is a lot of truth in Petey’s larger assertion: I don’t understand why Mike Brown plyed two big men so often! The second big man – be it Z or Andy or Ben or Joe Smith – could not guard Rashard and upset the entire defense. Why wouldn’t Cleveland go with LeBron at the PF to match up with Rashard? If it were me, that’s how I would have played it. (On the other, other hand, many people, myself included, compained about how Dallas changed the way they played in the Golden State series a couple of years ago, saying that you shouldn’t go away from what you do best to adjust to the other team. So who knows.)
(My suspicion, BTW, on why Mike Brown didn’t play LeBron at the 4 all the time is that he didn’t trust any of his small guys other than Delonte and Mo, so refused to play them big minutes in lieu of a big man. And perhaps that skepticism was warranted – guys like Wally, Boobie and Sasha seems to be rotting corpses out there.)
June 2nd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
And perhaps that skepticism was warranted – guys like Wally, Boobie and Sasha seems to be rotting corpses out there.)
Wally was horrific, but I actually thought Boobie did pretty well with the minutes he was given.
June 2nd, 2009 at 1:57 pm
“The Cavs were also one miracle shot away from being swept in four.”
The entire essence of the Cavs is that LBJ takes over at the end of games. Folks (like me) who assumed the Cavs were going to win the series assumed LBJ would single-handedly win 2 or 3 games down the stretch.
He single-handedly won games 2 and 5 at the end, was gassed at the end of game 1, and got let down by his coach at the end of game 4.
So, yes, if you aren’t assuming LBJ will average some miracle shots to win games in a seven game series, then yes, the series was almost a sweep for the Magic. But stuff like game 2 is par for the course.
Similarly, Kobe is going to make some crazy shots down the stretch of some games in the coming series. Superheroes have superpowers…
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:00 pm
It’s nice to see that some people really never do learn anything. Even thought the Celtics were clearly the better team all season long last year, everybody hailed the Lakers as the inevitable champions. They claimed it was because of the C’s struggles in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Yet now, when it’s the Lakers who’ve struggled against clearly overmatched opponents and it’s the Magic who’ve just defeated two out of the four best teams in the league…it’s again just assumed the Lakers will win because they’re the Lakers.
Just look at the matchups. LA cannot play Gasol and Bynum at the same time against Orlando because one of those guys then has to guard Lewis or Hedo. Which means Gasol or Bynum will have to cover Dwight one-on-one and after that EPIC FAIL, they’re back in the same situation that Cleveland was in.
The only team that matches up well with the Magic is a healthy Celtics and not just because Perkins defends Dwight so well. It’s because KG can control either Hedo or Lewis defensively and can dominate them offensively.
Mike
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:10 pm
“OTOH, I think there is a lot of truth in Petey’s larger assertion: I don’t understand why Mike Brown plyed two big men so often! The second big man – be it Z or Andy or Ben or Joe Smith – could not guard Rashard and upset the entire defense.”
Exactamundo.
In Brown’s defense, he didn’t have a lot of viable options on his roster to handle Orlando’s personnel. Cleveland’s whole roster schtick is to surround LBJ with really big guys and really small guys, which LBJ picking up all the slack in between. But the presence of Hedo and Rashard on the same team left Brown with only bad options.
That said, he still didn’t make the correct choices from the limited menu he had available. I would’ve given WallyWorld and Sasha more time. And I would’ve had Ben Wallace not break his leg so close to the playoffs.
But the essential point here of Brown’s idiocy of playing two bigs against the Magic is entirely correct.
If you win 66 games, you get the idea that you don’t have to adjust to deal with a team that won fewer games. You won more games, so they should have to adjust to you. But Cleveland really did need to adjust its basic rotation to deal with the Magic’s freakish roster, and Brown never really adjusted.
Notice how SVG played Redick to deal with Boston and Pietrus to deal with Cleveland. Redick is a rotting corpse, but SVG still got what he needed out of him to beat the Celtics. Brown could’ve done the same with WallyWorld and/or Sasha.
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:16 pm
“It’s nice to see that some people really never do learn anything. Even thought the Celtics were clearly the better team all season long last year, everybody hailed the Lakers as the inevitable champions.”
I thought the Lakers were going to beat the Celtics last year because I thought the Celtics had no one to cover Kobe, while the Lakers had people to cover Boston’s big three.
In practice, it played out almost entirely oppositely. Pierce and Posey were able to make Kobe work hard for his points, while the Lakers had no one to make Pierce work hard for his points.
In short, it can be hard to perceive how matchups will play out ahead of time. There are a lot of moving parts…
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:16 pm
So, yes, if you aren’t assuming LBJ will average some miracle shots to win games in a seven game series, then yes, the series was almost a sweep for the Magic.
Seems like a reasonable thing not to be assuming.
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:18 pm
In short, it can be hard to perceive how matchups will play out ahead of time. There are a lot of moving parts…
Agreed. I think the crux of this LA-Orlando series is how Gasol matches up on both ends. But I really have no read on it.
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Gasol will be able to guard Lewis much better than Lewis will be able to guard Gasol. Bynum and Gasol are better defenders than Big Z. Not to mention the Lakers also have Odom, who will both be able to guard Lewis and dominate him in the post. The key to the series is will the Lakers wing players be able to get Howard in foul trouble. If Bryant and Ariza (and to a lesser extent Brown, Farmar and Sasha, in that order), are able to consistently get Howard in foul trouble, the Magic are in deep doo doo.
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:34 pm
I really don’t see that this is the case. Howard had good numbers in their first regular season game and great numbers in their second (his minutes were limited in the first by foul trouble).
First of all, did Howard ever miss against Ilgauskas? Like, even once? I’m pretty he came close to shooting 100% when matched up one-on-one with Z. Varejao did slightly better, but his expertise is help defense. He also fouled a Hell of a lot. 47-year-old Ben Wallace might’ve done the best job of all, but hardly a Kendrick Perkins-esque performance.
So there isn’t a high hurdle here. Obviously the Lakers aren’t going to shut Howard down. And if Howard keeps making his free throws and avoiding fouls, no one will can ever shut him down. All I’m saying is the Lakers can do much, much better than Cleveland.
So…
One reason I don’t like to pay too much attention to regular season matchups is that there are all kinds of other factors at play. Like the fact that Jameer Nelson was 100% healthy for both Lakers matchups. He probably won’t play and if he does will not be anywhere near 100%. And Jameer Nelson is very good. And he was freaking awesome in both Lakers games.
That aside, in their second meeting with LA it seems Dwight Howard was good, but nothing like the spectacularly unimpeded play he enjoyed against the Cavs. He went 8-18 from the floor and had 6 turnovers. True, he went off for 20 rebounds, but in general the Lakers are a great rebounding team… and I guess if I’m a Lakers fan I’m hoping the Andrew Bynum who gets 3 rebounds in 33 minutes isn’t who shows up for this series. Yikes.
So of course it’s not a slam dunk LA will win. But look, Cleveland’s problems with Orlando run very deep and go back over the last several seasons. Dwight Howard is a problem for every team to handle. That’s the bulk of the reason Orlando is among the very best teams in the NBA. But within that subset of elite teams, there’s no real reason to suspect the rest of the group necessarily shares the same idiosyncratic matchup issues as Cleveland. Of course Dwight Howard will be a load. Mitigating his damage, using a more sophisticated offense, and having a variety of long, athletic guys on the perimeter really ought to work in LA’s favor relative to the Cavs.
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Actually, the Rockets match up quite well against Orlando. Yao outplays Howard man-to-man and everyone else stays tight on the three-point shooters. Check the stats if you don’t believe it. Howard has always come up on the short end against Yao.
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Actually, the Rockets match up quite well against Orlando.
That’s very true. Denver would have matched up pretty well too.
Anyone else think this “Jameer Nelson playing in the Finals” idea is really, really, really bad?
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:57 pm
It’s worth noting that Howard averaged 16 free throws against the Lakers, while Gasol + Bynum averaged 7 (I think).
June 2nd, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Which means Gasol or Bynum will have to cover Dwight one-on-one and after that EPIC FAIL,
Bynum is young and bigger than Howard (and Perkins). Will he be able to slow Howard by himself? Dunno. But I don’t think it’s obvious that he won’t.
while the Lakers had no one to make Pierce work hard for his points.
This is why I think that had Ariza been healthy all year, the Lakers would have won last year. I think he’s going to be the X factor in this series, too. Either he can cover one of the tall wings (probably Rashard) or he can’t.
June 2nd, 2009 at 3:08 pm
I’m still p*ssed that Yao got hurt again. I am convinced that with a healthy Yao, the Rockets would have beaten the Lakers, as I predicted on the predictions thread.
June 2nd, 2009 at 3:10 pm
I am convinced that with a healthy Yao, the Rockets would have beaten the Lakers, as I predicted on the predictions thread.
Leading, inevitably, to injured national pride and a war with China. We’re on to you, neocon.
June 2nd, 2009 at 3:41 pm
The Lakers were 2-1 against the Rockets with Yao and 2-2 in games w/o Yao. By the time Yao got hurt in game 3, the Lakers already had won the game. The Rockets without Yao were a worse matchup for the Lakers than they were with him. In addition, the Lakers look much better in the 1st three games than they did in the next three.
June 2nd, 2009 at 4:02 pm
everybody talks about the jameer games in the regular season matchups between Lakers and Magic, but there are a lot of other weird factors involved:
Radman started both games.
Bogans played more minutes than Lee and Pietrus combined in the first game @ LA.
I believe Bynum was still playing with confidence–i.e. it was pre-Bynum injury.
Between that and the relatively small victory margins (3 and 6, respectively), I think the regular season matchups are much less a guide to this series than before.
I still like Magic in 6 though.
June 2nd, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Actually, very good predictions Matt. Excellent really. Portland vs Houston? Who could say, and everybody pretty much had Cleveland over Orlando. I had Detroit vs Utah (just kidding).
I will take Orlando. Why not. I think they have the right mix of defenders to throw at Kobe and Dwight Howard should be able to stay out of foul trouble.
It seemed almost every foul Howard picked up in the Cleveland series was trying to defend Lebron after Lebron had a full head of steam and was barreling down the lane. Lebron is like a 6′8″ 260 pound fullback with 4.5 speed loose in the secondary looking to knock out a safety. I give Howard credit for standing in there and taking some body blows. He won’t face that kind of activity against the Lakers.
With Hedo Turkoglu running the show the Magic have developed a beautiful and sophisticated high post offense. They can also run a nice, controlled fast break, and when the going gets tough, they can always feed an ever more competent and confident Howard in the post.
In an offensive series, I’ll take the Magic in 6, which will make the non-Shaq Kobe led Lakers oh for two in the Finals.
June 2nd, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Matt, you’re a little tough on yourself. You flat nailed the East apart from the final team to emerge. But who wasn’t picking Cleveland? No fault there. You did muck up the West pretty bad, but the NBA Western Conference is a muddied group of mediocrities that’s barely worth your attention.
I can only go on the basketball I’m seeing played right now, and that tells me we’re looking at Orlando in 5 or 6. Not that I’m watching any of them.
June 2nd, 2009 at 4:43 pm
As a Cleveland fan, I really wasn’t able to evaluate Cleveland’s chances objectively, but right before the playoffs I was comparing Cleveland’s supporting cast to the supporting cast around Jordan when he won his first title.
I realized, much to my horror, that Cleveland’s supporting cast this season, though improved, is VASTLY inferior to the supporting cast of the 91 Bulls. This suggested to me that if Lebron won the title this year it would suggest that he is substantially better at this point in his career than was Michael Jordan at that point in his, despite Jordan being a couple years older.
That struck me as almost impossible to believe. I bought into it, like everyone else, after watching the Cavs wax two useless East also-rans, and felt blindsided by the eventual result just like everyone. But in hindsight I realize that the belief that Cleveland was going to win a title just with Lebron James and six or seven warm bodies (apologies to Ben Wallace’s corpse) was wishful thinking.
Cleveland has one more chance to get it right; this Cavs fan won’t blame him if he blows town after another year of playing with substandard talent around him.
June 2nd, 2009 at 5:08 pm
“This is why I think that had Ariza been healthy all year, the Lakers would have won last year. I think he’s going to be the X factor in this series, too. Either he can cover one of the tall wings (probably Rashard) or he can’t.”
It’s not quite that on/off.
Ariza is a two way player. He not only needs to be able to consistently hassle one of Orlando’s wing players, but he also needs to keep up his insane offensive production from this playoffs. Dude’s been knocking down shots. 67% True Shooting percentage this playoffs, which is crazy. If Orlando’s defense is as good against the Lakers as I think it might be, he might not have such an abundance of open looks.
—–
But I certainly do agree that Ariza’s production on both ends of the court will be highly correlated with the Lakers’ chance of winning the series. It’s hard to imagine the Lakers winning if Ariza isn’t highly productive.
And the Candyman can’t.
——
For all the talk of LA’s bench back during winter, it’s Orlando’s role players whom I really like. Pietrus and Lee are solid. That gives you Orlando’s Big Three, Pietrus and Lee, and Rafer who’ll be solid for half the games to get up to six core players.
LA’s weakness at PG means that can’t take advantage of Orlando’s key flaw. And after Kobe and Pau, you’re full of flaws.
You need Ariza to add to Kobe and Pau to even be competitive. The Magic are a tough team.
June 2nd, 2009 at 5:13 pm
“I’m still p*ssed that Yao got hurt again. I am convinced that with a healthy Yao, the Rockets would have beaten the Lakers, as I predicted on the predictions thread.”
I’m annoyed that series never happened, but that’s the Rockets. They’re incapable of being healthy at the right time.
Houston definitely had the roster to take down LA, pre-Yao injury, though it wouldn’t have been an easy series.
I keep thinking Iverson is headed to Houston next year, and I imagine that they’ll have the number one seed in April, when Iverson will blow out his knee…
June 2nd, 2009 at 5:20 pm
I’m still p*ssed that Yao got hurt again. I am convinced that with a healthy Yao, the Rockets would have beaten the Lakers, as I predicted on the predictions thread.
If one is to assume that LeBron will make several miracle shots to win a seven-game series, one should also assume that the Rockets will not stay healthy through a seven game series.
June 2nd, 2009 at 5:22 pm
“If one is to assume that LeBron will make several miracle shots to win a seven-game series, one should also assume that the Rockets will not stay healthy through a seven game series.”
Yup.
June 2nd, 2009 at 5:44 pm
“Gasol will be able to guard Lewis much better than Lewis will be able to guard Gasol.”
Except when Gasol scores on Lewis, he’ll be getting two points. Lewis will either be getting three or blowing past Gasol to force the Laker defense to rotate and open up a three for someone else.
Mike
June 2nd, 2009 at 5:50 pm
“Bynum is young and bigger than Howard (and Perkins). Will he be able to slow Howard by himself? Dunno. But I don’t think it’s obvious that he won’t.”
It’s obvious from watching him play in the Houston and Denver series. Bynum and Gasol were pretty consistently outworked by the other teams’ bigs and only won those matchups because they were half a foot taller. Now they’re going to be outworked by a guy their same size, who also happens to be far more athletic.
Mike
June 2nd, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Bynum is young and bigger than Howard (and Perkins). Will he be able to slow Howard by himself? Dunno. But I don’t think it’s obvious that he won’t.
I have to agree with MBunge. There’s no way in hell Bynum slows Howard.
June 2nd, 2009 at 9:11 pm
Rashard Lewis these playoffs: PER 17.4 TS% 57.6% TRB% 9.3% Ast% 11.5% WS 2.4
Pau Gasol these playoffs: PER 21.6 TS% 61.5% TRB% 22.5% Ast% 10.8% WS 3.2
So by pretty much every objective measure, Gasol is a superior player. Putting a tall 3 at the 4 against a quick 5 is usually a recipe for disaster. Otherwise there’d be a lot more college tweeners succeeding in the NBA. Don’t get me wrong, Lewis is a great, albeit overpaid, player, but he’s at a huge disadvantage against Gasol. Rebounding is going to be a difference maker in this series and Gasol adds to that advantage.
June 3rd, 2009 at 1:50 am
Matt, you’re a little tough on yourself. You flat nailed the East apart from the final team to emerge. But who wasn’t picking Cleveland? No fault there. You did muck up the West pretty bad, but the NBA Western Conference is a muddied group of mediocrities that’s barely worth your attention.
There really aren’t many difficult picks to make. 6/8 in the first round were obvious (MY got both hard ones wrong, although Heat-Hawks shouldn’t really count for anything cause both those teams suck). 3/4 in the second round were pretty easy (Boston-Orlando was the hardest one in this round, which MY got right). 1/2 in the third was also pretty easy (MY got thisn wrong). Finals is hard. Not a great showing if you discount the easy picks.
Of course, my picks weren’t much better.
June 3rd, 2009 at 3:44 am
I’d put the true odds on the series as 60/40 favoring Orlando.
NOOOOOO!!!!!! I was so looking forward to watching Dwight Howard drop the People’s Elbow on the Lakers. But you had to go and hit them with the Petey Curse. Thanks a lot, asshole.