Matt Yglesias

Obama’s Mid-June Popularity Exceeds Predecessors’

The dire headlines on today’s polls had me a bit freaked out, but Dave Weigel calmed me down with some data. Barack Obama is way more popular than Bill Clinton was at this point, and considerably more popular than George W. Bush was. I made a chart:

Basically, he’s doing well. In some ways the question is why he isn’t trying harder to actually deploy that popularity and bring pressure on congress.

22 Responses to “Obama’s Mid-June Popularity Exceeds Predecessors’”

1. Andrew Says:
   June 18th, 2009 at 4:09 pm

   Well, not to be too glass-half-full, but he *IS* doing his big health care prime time special next week. I suspect that like in the stimulus package, when push comes to shove, he’ll be fairly forceful.

   But, yeah, there are ominous signs, what with Baucus – who for awhile looked like he was doing the right thing for once – looking like he’s going to produce some incrementalist, non-universal bullshit.

   We’ll see what happens when he gets more heavily involved. I suspect they’re going to see what the two Senate committees come up with and then insist upon a few red lines (although whether that includes the public plan remains to be seen) and try to force something through.

   I think the best-case scenario is getting something not-great-but-not-awful from the Senate with a bare 60 votes (maybe minus Nelson but plus Snowe), improving it in conference and then forcing it through the Senate (Conference bills cannot be filibustered).

2. BrklynLibrul Says:
   June 18th, 2009 at 4:14 pm

   Obama may be personally more popular than Clinton or Bush were at this juncture, but he doesn’t seem to be able to translate his personal appeal into any kind of real reform. The GOP has played the one card it holds — marching in lockstep opposition — and spooking the Blue Dogs and moderate Dems in the process. Obama has lost ground on the various policy debates, ceding the pulpit to McConnell and Boner (er, Boehner) and Cantor, and relying too heavily on the sheer brilliance (ahem) of Reid and Pelosi to counter . . .

   This does not bode well for healthcare reform. The status quo is too entrenched. One thing I’m sure of now: the public option is gone, daddy, gone.

3. ga73 Says:
   June 18th, 2009 at 4:28 pm

   I wish that you were so wrong, but I think you’re right.

   # BrklynLibrul Says:
   This does not bode well for healthcare reform. The status quo is too entrenched. One thing I’m sure of now: the public option is gone, daddy, gone.

4. abb1 Says:
   June 18th, 2009 at 4:31 pm

   Swatting that fly probably added 10 points or so. Big success.

5. Poptarts Says:
   June 18th, 2009 at 4:32 pm

   This does not bode well for healthcare reform. The status quo is too entrenched. One thing I’m sure of now: the public option is gone, daddy, gone.

   Obama has been very impressive so far on a range of issues. You may be right about the public option, but on the other hand Obama has been on the ropes before and he is clutch.

   He’s like Michael Jordon, who he got the “terrorist fist bump” from.

6. Trinity Says:
   June 18th, 2009 at 4:35 pm

   I understand your despair but what have you done about it? I hope you have at least reached out to your representatives and expressed your opinion on the matter. I’ve put in several calls and emails to the WH and various Senators. The public option may not hold but I’ll be damned if I don’t let them know exactly what I think about this issue.

7. BrklynLibrul Says:
   June 18th, 2009 at 4:44 pm

   I hear you, Trinity. I’m lucky in that my rep (Yvette Clark) and both of my Senators (Schumer for sure, Gillibrand I think) support the public option. But you’re right: everyone needs to phone it in. I’m afraid that Obama has deferred too much to Congress on this issue — didn’t he learn anything from the stimulus debate?

8. JMG Says:
   June 18th, 2009 at 4:45 pm

   Obama is an extremely deliberate and methodical man. It took him months to pick a puppy, for God’s sake. This M.O. is not exactly suited to the culture of the blogosphere or cable news.
   He may screw up health care reform six ways from Sunday. But we need to judge him on a longer timetable.

9. joejoejoe Says:
   June 18th, 2009 at 4:47 pm

   There is entirely too much focus on what the Senate is going to do with health care. Obama/Pelosi are going to roll the Babysplitting Caucus in conference and pass a darn good bill with a public option using reconciliation (h/t to early, strong Obama supporter Kent Conrad for playing along).

   When the final bill passes with 53-57 votes or whatever the bipartisan fetishists like Broder will be screaming but you won’t be able to hear them over the sound of 130 million American adults celebrating the fact that they no longer depend on their asshole boss for healthcare.

   More focus on how Speaker Pelosi is playing the healthcare legislation game please!

   Obama is as popular as ice cream in summer. Are there still people who are lactose intolerant? Sure. Fuck ‘em.

10. James Robertson Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 4:50 pm

    Without saying anything about his policy choices, you don’t suppose his popularity has anything to do with the absolute fawning coverage he gets? Neither Clinton or Bush ever received the kind of positive coverage that Obama gets.

11. abb1 Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 4:52 pm

    I’ve put in several calls and emails to the WH and various Senators.

    The problem with email is that, unlike snail mail, it can’t even be used to wipe ass. Therefore, I’m afraid, its effect is probably negligible.

12. DTM Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 4:58 pm

    Obama’s popularity has been essentially unchanged since mid-March.

    One thing I’m sure of now: the public option is gone, daddy, gone.

    I really see no reason to believe this, but I don’t mind if some people end up pleasantly surprised.

13. Ben P Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 5:04 pm

    The problem isn’t Obama’s popularity – as noted it compares favorably with Bush and Clinton at similar points in their presidencies. Look at pollingreport – for example, in the NBC/WSJ poll taken from 6/23/01 to 6/26/01 had Bush at 50 approve/35 approve (Obama is currently at 56 approve/34 disapprove). A Gallup poll taken from 6/11/01 to 6/17/01 had Bush at 53 approve, 34 disapprove (Obama is currently at 61 approve/32 disapprove). A Pew poll taken from 6/14/01 to 6/17/01 had Bush at 50% approve, 33% disapprove (In this poll Obama is currently at 61% approve, 30% disapprove). I can’t find the numbers for Clinton, but they were considerably worse than Bush’s numbers at this point.

    The problem are structural impediments to reform. They are bigger than I thought they’d be. But then again, Obama has surprised me in the past – I never thought he would be president. Maybe he will surprise me again.

14. Duvall Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 5:11 pm

    Neither Clinton or Bush ever received the kind of positive coverage that Obama gets.

    Were you able to type this without breaking into laughter? Bush may not have gotten this kind of positive coverage in June of his first year, but for about two years after September 11 he got tongue baths from the press that other presidents don’t get without dying. Get serious.

15. right Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 5:20 pm

    Bush may not have gotten this kind of positive coverage in June of his first year, but for about two years after September 11 he got tongue baths from the press that other presidents don’t get without dying.

    This may be true, but it wouldn’t have much to do with his job approval rating in June 2001.

16. Tyro Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 5:31 pm

    right, Bush came into office having lost the popular vote. The fact that the press regarded him as anything other than “a president who came into office under controversial circumstances” is indicative of very favorable press and is indicative of his rather moderate approval ratings.

    The difference between Obama and the other compared presidents is that Obama won a significantly larger share of the popular vote than either of the others.

17. Daniel Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 5:56 pm

    Well by now Clinton had already made his first stumble with DADT right? And in Bush’s first time (which is what I assume the graph considers here) he was still in the shadow of his hare’s breath election. With that in mind I think what we’re seeing is something normal for a president this far into his term before he’s tried to implement the most ambitious pieces of his legislative agenda.

18. JonF Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    Re: Baucus – who for awhile looked like he was doing the right thing for once – looking like he’s going to produce some incrementalist, non-universal bullshit.

    Is there anything incrementalist left to do at this point? The only thing I can think of would be to have the government pay for COBRA, or cover the unemployed under Medicaid– and even that would have a pretty hefty price tag. Other popular reforms, like enforcing a community rating system on all insurers or requiring employers to insure their workers, would have major consequences and would pretty much require a full scale overhaul.

19. kth Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 6:28 pm

    James, to the extent that Obama gets favorable press coverage, it is, like Reagan before him, the effect of his popularity (especially relative to his opponents in the campaign and in Congress) and not its cause.

20. Jasper Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 6:52 pm

    …improving it in conference and then forcing it through the Senate (Conference bills cannot be filibustered).

    You learn something new every day.

    I wonder why this hasn’t been more remarked upon. Is there any precedent for the “improvement” being fairly substantive change from the original, as in, 62 senators spit out incrementalist bullshit and then are force fed a much more radical, Pelosified final bill that only needs fifty-one votes?

21. Jasper Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 6:56 pm

    The problem are structural impediments to reform. They are bigger than I thought they’d be.

    I think this is right, but I’d go one step further, to say that it’s structural impediments, and their imperviousness to the popularity of a much-admired president.

22. Lefty Blogs Chart Course for Future « lotus dale Says:
    June 21st, 2009 at 7:28 pm

    [...] on both sides of the ideological divide knows what I am talking about. Take Matt Yglesias. Map. Bar graph. Figure. Those are consecutive [...]