Murder Down in DC
After experiencing a large decline starting in the 1990s, the number of murders in DC has been creeping up slightly the past couple of years:
So far this year, however, murder is way down:
There’s been some concern across urban America that poor economic conditions will lead to a return of the high levels of crime seen in the 1980s and early 1990s, but the historical evidence on how likely that is is mixed. Certainly, any such increase would be a very unwelcome development. Crime, after all, features a lot of tipping point and feedback loop effects. The fewer murders there are in the District in any given year, the more time and attention MPDC can afford to dedicate to investigating any given murder. The ability to devote more attention to particular cases increases the odds of apprehension which decreases the odds of violation. That, in turn, makes policing easier.
And of course with less murder there’s more resources available to deal with other kinds of offenses. A reduction in crime also encourages people to be out and about more, which creates “eyes on the street” and can further reduce crime. It also spurs economic opportunities and job creation which, in turn, reduce crime. By contrast, rising crime can swamp the law enforcement infrastructure and then start to devastate the tax base which supports it.
14 Responses to “Murder Down in DC”
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June 30th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
I don’t care about any of this shit. Just tell me if Ryan Powers is still typing. That’s what I come here to see.
June 30th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Er, isn’t it a bit premature to be predicting the number of murders a month from now? It wouldn’t take a terribly large spike to get the number over eighty-two. Or do you mean June 30?
June 30th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
What? A crime post without a reference to the Wire? You’re slipping Matt.
June 30th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Is any of this reduction due to gentrification? Has the murder rate gone up in PG County? I don’t know, but it would be interesting to look into.
June 30th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Some jackass is going to look at this and say “well if this means the murder rate is going up then that other chart you posted means global temperatures are going down!”
June 30th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
I’ll add my voice to JH’s to demand more coverage of Ryan Powers typing. It should be a regular feature any time a graph is posted.
June 30th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
It wouldn’t surprise me if Matt Y got confused, and compared the numbers for year-to-date murders in 2009 with murders up to July 30 in 2008.
June 30th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
You have to distinguish between violent crime and property crime. It has been shown that there’s more of the latter during recessions, but not of the former.
June 30th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
From the article, first-half murders are down 20%, so Matt has the right numbers in his graph (82 to 66). I’m not sure if you really need a bar graph to compare two numbers, however.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
It’s simple: they’re running out of victims, they’re all dead.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Interesting. What does Ryan Powers think about these charts, though?
June 30th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Hmm, interesting. The murder rate is way down in San Francisco as well: as of June 6, there have been 20 in 2009, vs. 47 at the same date in 2008. That’s pretty significant. Crime is down in Chicago as well. Wonder if this means anything.
June 30th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
legalization of handguns for home defense and murders are down? coincidence?
July 1st, 2009 at 8:52 am
I wonder what happens if you include surrounding counties in the statistics. From what I’ve heard from friends in the area, the worst crime has simply moved a few miles north over the border to PG County as DC has gentrified. SE DC is no longer the worst part of the DC-metro area.