May 25th, 2009 at 11:26 am
North Korean Nuclear Test
Everyone seems to agree that a North Korean nuclear test is a bad thing, but I’m a bit at a loss for smart things to say about it. Joe Cirincione says “North Korean nuclear test shows the failure of both US and China’s strategy to roll back the program.”
I guess it strikes me that the DPRK’s nose for grabbing attention seems a bit off if they’re deciding to do this over what’s a holiday weekend in the United States.
41 Responses to “North Korean Nuclear Test”
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May 25th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Well, it depends on whose attention they are seeking. Sure your average US citizen will be less likely to notice. But they are certainly ruining the weekend for the people paid to care about this.
May 25th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Hipsters don’t know what to say about a North Korean nuclear weapons test, but they think it’s funny that I was molested by a priest.
May 25th, 2009 at 11:52 am
If they were waiting for the right time to do this, it likely had far more to do with South Korea’s turmoil at the moment. The country is in total shock and an uproar after the suicide on Saturday of ex-President Roh (2003-2008), and this will further destablize it.
Not every action in the world is determined by US factors.
May 25th, 2009 at 11:55 am
Well certainly we can at least ask why they’re doing this. Traditionally they’ve tested weapons as a means of extracting aide from their neighbors. However in this case, they seem to be going a bit overboard. They didn’t just test a small nuclear weapon, they tested something big enough to destroy a city. They didn’t make a big fuss about how they were going to test something, they gave us 1 hour’s notice. They didn’t make a fuss about how they had new technology, they just went up and test-launched 3 short range missiles. In other words, normally the point of these things is to slowly ratchet up the threat, extract aide, and when that doesn’t work, test something small, inexpensive, but credible. These were done very rapidly, very expensively, and without warning. This is pretty belligerent, even by North Korean standards.
So maybe aide isn’t what they’re looking for. I tend to think that this actually is more of a warning of internal strife. There are a few rumors going around as to who Kim Jong Il is going to name as his successor, but it hasn’t been announced yet and it’s not quite clear. It could be that there are several factions competing for the post (between say, Kim Jong Woon, Kim Jong Chol, and that guy who’s Kim Jong Il’s half brother). Maybe the military establishment is worried that foreign countries will somehow or another interfere with North Korea if they see there is internal strife, so to cover it up they’re being extra belligerent. They’re detaining Kaesong Industrial Park employees, trying American journalists who get anywhere close to the border, cutting off treaties, testing missiles, testing nuclear weapons, etc.
I’d like to think that they aren’t doing these things because they are actually preparing to launch a war which will get them annihilated. I’d also like to think that this is all just a massive warning to the outside world not to invade or interfere while they go through some kind of unstable power struggle soon.
May 25th, 2009 at 11:57 am
It would have worked better as a poke to the USA if they announced that this was a commemoration of the sacrifices of THEIR fallen soldiers …
May 25th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
I guess it strikes me that the DPRK’s nose for grabbing attention seems a bit off if they’re deciding to do this over what’s a holiday weekend in the United States.
Heh. Obama said:
They aren’t doing it for attention. They aren’t doing because of the United States, whatever they say. They don’t care about being isolated. They just want a goddamn bomb.
After all, from their point of view, they’re trying to carry the torch of Marx and Lenin and Stalin in a world in which the evil imperialist running dogs are winning everywhere. So they’re surrounded by enemies on three sides, with the most dangerous being the Chinese, then the Americans and then the traitorous Russians. The Chinese, in particular, could overrun them in a few days (the DPRK can’t gas their tanks), but the PRC is mindful of what happened when they tried that with Vietnam. DPRK aren’t Nazis though: they’re following the fine old tradition of Enver Hoxha and Pol Pot. Poor and ravingly paranoid. They figure if they have got the bomb they can hold off the advanced capitalist countries until the world Revolution comes.
Unfortunately, nobody in DC has a complete answer because they don’t know what they’re trying to do. (Actually they do, but the strategies are entirely perpendicular to the problem: the D’s want to ensure peace, and the R’s want to prove they have big dicks.)
The only way to deal with this without starting a full-scale Great Power war is to either ignore them and let them rot (which requires patience, not something our elites have any talent at), or we gotta cut a deal with the PRC and the Russians to truly totally isolate them. No food, no water, no fuel, naval embargo. Six months of that and the DPRK will collapse since they’re barely hanging on economically now.
Essential to that is the cooperation of the Chinese, who don’t trust *us* more than they are threatened by the DPRK. As above, we can withdraw from the situation (really withdraw) and make the DPRK the problem of the Chinese. Who might eventually decide to do something about it.
max
['But I expect what really matters is what's on TV.']
May 25th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
My father-in-law was a POW during the Korean War. There are a fair number of soldiers lying in Arlington Cemetery who were killed in that war. This test raises the prospect that there could be a shitload more in the future –either in Korea or in Los Angeles.
May 25th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
Given that Obama is visiting Arlington Cemetery today, I think the message from the North Koreans is pretty obvious.
May 25th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Fuck it. This is a lot easier to solve than people seem to think. If we just cut off food aid to North Korea, the entire state will collapse within five years. We can state that if they’ve got the resources to pursue nuclear weapons, they’re clearly capable of feeding themselves. We can do it with oil as well. You can’t run a tank or a plane off batteries.
May 25th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Re “Essential to that is the cooperation of the Chinese, who don’t trust *us* more than they are threatened by the DPRK.”
————-
Actually, North Korea could be very useful to China as a nuclear armed proxy. The USA economy would be badly hurt by a nuclear strike on Los Angeles or Silicon Valley. Or even on Japan. The resulting economic damage would eventually weaken the US military and force a retreat from the bases offshore from CHina.
The Chinese could offer the ruler of North Korea sanctuary in China (hence protection from US retaliation ) and huge treasure in exchange for such a strike. Of course, the Korean ruler would be a fool to accept the offer –the Chinese would have enormous incentive to kill him at the first opportunity to keep word of the deal from leaking out.
But maybe something could be worked out as insurance.
Maybe this option is why the US government has borrowed so heavily from China — the “you can’t wage war on us –we owe you too much money” defense.
May 25th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
[...] Matt Yglesias [...]
May 25th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Note that China has the ability to kill the ruler of North Korean NOW if they so wished.
May 25th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Word around the coffee shop this morning is that Japan’s LDP is about to introduce a resolution authorizing the acquisition of nuclear weapons. This test is aimed at them, not us.
Also, comment #2 easily wins the thread; Detroit Red Wings style, knock ‘em out early.
May 25th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
…I’m a bit at a loss for smart things to say about it.
Just say: “this is very worrying, indeed”, and you’ll sound smart.
May 25th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
“Fuck it. This is a lot easier to solve than people seem to think. If we just cut off food aid to North Korea, the entire state will collapse within five years.”
Yeah, and then we’d get shit on for “genocide” or something like that. We found out way back in 1949 that there’s really nothing we can do short of war to stop a hostile country from getting the bomb. That was the choice then and it still is. Any takers?
May 25th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Kim Jong-Il had a stroke in August and is widely believed to be in declining health. Unlike when his father was entering old age and had made it obvious for 10+ years that Kim Jong-Il would be his successor, there is no obvious follower to Kim. I think the nuclear test is a warning for South Korea, Japan, and the US to give the country a wide berth during what could possibly be a turbulent transition.
May 25th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
I guess it strikes me that the DPRK’s nose for grabbing attention seems a bit off if they’re deciding to do this over what’s a holiday weekend in the United States.
The 2006 Taepodong launch was on the evening of July 4 (US time). And the last N. Korea nuke test was on Columbus day weekend.
May 25th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
The 2006 Taepodong launch was on the evening of July 4 (US time). And the last N. Korea nuke test was on Columbus day weekend.
Maybe their launch crew all have day jobs here in the US, and can only do launching stuff on their days off.
May 25th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’m having the darndest time connecting this to George Bush. Can someone help me?
May 25th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’m having the darndest time connecting this to George Bush. Can someone help me?
**yawn**
Better trolls, please.
May 25th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Jono, I had the exact same thought.
May 25th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
The Chinese are not going to cooperate in a North Korean plot to bomb a US city. The advantages gained by doing so would be far outweighed by the consequences.
In the first place, if such attack did hurt the US economy it would drive down the value of the dollar and thereby devalue the US debt owned by the Chinese. It would hurt the Chinese nearly as much as it would hurt the US.
Second, if the plot was discovered wouldn’t that give the US a perfect excuse not to repay the debt to the Chinese? No US government would send money to a country which was conspiring to kill US citizens. The consequences of a debt repayment moratorium would be politically catastrophic for the current Chinese leadership, whose legitimacy depends to a great extent on continuing and rapid economic expansion.
Of all the possible scenarios here, having the Chinese use the North Koreans as a proxy for a nuclear terrorist attack on the US is by far the least likely.
May 25th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Whatever their reasons for the test were, they surely didn’t think it through correctly. I agree that it very well could be just a warning to the world not to invade while they go through their transition of power. At the same time, I think it was a poor decision to make with the UN telling them to bolster their nuclear program. To me it seem that the quiet little kid on the playground is trying to get attention by showing off his guns. This is self-destructive behavior and if they keep it up, I’m sure N. Korea will only be remembered in the history books as the country will soon have the worlds full attention, meaning if they keep it up, it’s only a matter of time before any number of countries flattens the country literally.
May 25th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Re Kafka at 15: “We found out way back in 1949 that there’s really nothing we can do short of war to stop a hostile country from getting the bomb.”
———–
I agree with Kafka –but I would note that there is a GREAT DEAL we can do to reduce the motivations of countries to seek nuclear weapons.
After all, getting nukes involves enormous work and expense — which many countries might be willing to forego if they’re thought the planet’s superpower was not ruled by crazy psychopaths like Dick Cheney and docile asskissers like George W Bush.
It was always infuriating to me that our whoring News Media refused to examine the major damage Bush and Cheney did to this country with the Invasion of Iraq and the witless “War on Terror” –and with their bald-faced lies that everyone abroad KNEW was outright deceit. Countries far more powerful than Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Al Qaeda have concluded we are dangerous and a threat to them. We have given other powers enormous incentive to ally covertly against us and to make secret plans to hit us hard if need be.
I spent decades working in the Cold War — I have no problem with being ruthless to defend this country. But only a fucking moron threatens and attacks others if there is little to no reason. Because the best fix for a swaggering bully is a knife in the kidneys with no warning.
May 25th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
SMART POWER is a disaster.
An embarrassing mess of snobby insecurity, obsessed with vilifying domestic opposition, while making matters far worse.
Hillary Rodham Clinton said she could deal with North Korea, just before she declared human rights were not a priority for the Democrats in the Obama Administration.
She later embarrassed herself with wimpy ‘restarting’ gimmicks with the Russians, designed to stick it to domestic opposition. And Mrs. Clintons pathetic display of ignorance in front of the famous “Our Lady of Guadalupe”.
This is the same liar, who was co-President of an Administration that made it their policy to lie about genocide in Rwanda. It is no surprise, Mrs. Clinton’s involvement is going to prove regretful yet again, on the World stage.
Her condescending, partisan nature has been ugly in the State Department, which only sets up the Obama Administration to look far more sophomoric when they flop.
Meanwhile, Iran, North Korea, etc., all sense the weakness in the Obama Administration, which is going to continue to enable the most monstrous threats.
Long ago, when we found out North Korea was predictably cheating on the vapid Clinton Administration attempt to appease this brutal NK Regime, Hillary Clinton rushed out to demand further appeasement.
This is the same deceitful Politician who not only lied about ‘dodging sniper fire’, but told various whoppers about her vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq.
We are seeing failure at the highest level, and more demeaning rhetoric towards the prior Administration is not helpful, for they actually seem far more competent in comparison to this pathetic return of the Clinton – Carter Eras.
But don’t worry, maybe Hillary Rodham has acquired some more funds for Bill’s questionable Foundation from the Chinese.
And the delusional supporters of these unethical players, will remain in deep denial.
Thank you.
May 25th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
If China does not want North Korea as a proxy, then
Can anyone here explain WHY the Chinese allowed the North Koreans to acquire nuclear bombs — by undermining US attempts to impose an economic blockade?
After all, the launch path to major Chinese cities is far shorter than it is to Los Angeles.
The US might possibly have the ability to block a missile launch at CONUS — but the Chinese don’t have a hope in hell of doing so if that missile is launched at Beijing.
May 25th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Re Brooklyn at 25: “We are seeing failure at the highest level, and more demeaning rhetoric towards the prior Administration is not helpful, for they actually seem far more competent in comparison to this pathetic return of the Clinton – Carter Eras.”
———-
Er..if North Korea actually exploded a 20 Kt nuke, then they must have developed it in the past 8 years. Last Time I checked , it was not the Democrats who controlled the White House and Congress during that period.
Bush was a Triple dumbfuck. One, he didn’t stop North Korea from developing a nuke. Two, he gave North Korea a strong incentive to do so. Three, he gave Russia and China a strong reason not to ally with the USA to strangle North Korea and keep a lid on nuclear proliferation. People usually don’t want to team up with psychopaths.
May 25th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
y undermining US attempts to impose an economic blockade?
DPRK international trade (or lack thereof) is more of a function of its own policies than any external pressure; and the biggest trading partner (almost as much as everyone else combined – 45%) is the ROK.
May 25th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
North Korean leaders have their own logic. I wouldn’t analyze too much. Being land-locked, isolated, and dirt poor for so long makes them batty. Surely they feel vulnerable. North Korean defectors have a hard time adapting to life in South Korea.
Maybe they just had something ready to test.
May 25th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
Excuse me, did someone think there was positive here?
Reality often does that to the innocent and naive.
May 25th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
[...] one more thing: I can’t resist linking to little Matt Yglesias’ comments on the NoKo nuke: I guess it strikes me that the DPRK’s nose for grabbing attention seems a bit off if they’re [...]
May 25th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
This time it seems they got it right (the bomb, I don’t know about the timing). The earlier test was obviously an embarassing near-dud (I suspect some key managers/scientists paid with their lives). Most likely it has to do with the internal positioning of NK factions in anticipation of a power struggle. I doubt scaring off the rest of world while they fight it out internally has much to do with it.
I may be wrong, but my inclination is that we should ignore them. That, I suspect would seriously tick them off!
May 25th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
The timing seems to have been directed at South Korea, given the recent suicide of the ex-president who was more conciliatory towards the North. Most plausible theory out there regarding the specific timing of the whole thing..
May 25th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
It’s not at all clear to me yet that they got this bomb right. The estimate that it might be a 20 kt bomb is from the Russians. But the Russians initially estimated the previous bomb to be 10 to 15 kt. It’s possible that this might simply be another nuclear fizzle, in the vicinity of 1 kt.
Given that this would have been a live possibility, it seems that this is the most likely explanation for the North Koreans proceeding without particular fanfare. If they pull out all the ceremonial hoopla, and its another fizzle as it may well be, they lose face.
If on the other hand, they play it low key… well, a fizzle shows they’re still at it, and a big blast speaks for itself.
In terms of how this fits into their overall strategic planning, its pretty clear that they intend to demonstrate and develop a capacity to hit Japan.
Their logic is that rightly or wrongly, they believe that if war breaks out, they can and will defeat South Korea. The wild card or game loser is the intervention of foreign powers. The last war, they had no way to attack or deter the United States, the war was played out entirely over Korean soil. The American tripwire force in Korea is a guarantee that the Americans may intervene again in a future conflict. Ergo, Nuclear weapons operate as a deterrent against American intervention, potentially by extending the war to America’s allies at unacceptable cost.
There may be other factors. Establishing an independent deterrent from China, and therefore establishing a bit more room for an independent foreign policy, or even an independent reunification policy. And of course establishing a deterrent in the event of succession issues.
Nothing particularly inscrutable or remarkable about any of this.
May 25th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
People are missing the upside. I don’t follow this closely but last I heard Noth Korea had fissile material to make eight or so low yield bombs. Now they material for one less. If they tan a test a week for two monte they wouldn’t have any capability at all.
IIRC the US was more or less bluffing after Nakasaki, we had just enough uranium bomb material for one test and then one live bomb at Hiroshima and then enough Plutonium for what was in effect a live test over Nagasaki. I don’t know how many weeks or months it would take to accumulate enough material for a fourth bomb but we were not then in a position to turn Japan’e cities into radioactive ash.
Every bomb N Korea tests is one more out of their arsenal, the question is whether their centrifuges can keep ahead of their need to do dick swinging bomb tests during the upcoming regime change. To a lesser degree this is true of their long range missiles, as far as I am concerned they can blow up two bombs on the Fourth of July and shoot off four long range missiles. I get that S Korea and Japan won’t be happy but every subtraction from N Korea’s strategic arsenal is a net plus for US national security. Each of these bomb and missile tests represents a substantial fraction of N Korea’s GDP.
N Kores can turn Seoul into the equivalent of London’s WWII East End pretty much at will and make 30000 US troops take substantial casualties, something obviously to be avoided, but the idea that they are soMe sort of existential threat to the US because they theoretically could strike Attu Alaska or Christmas Island Hawaii is ludicrous. The Japanese effectively took both, by God they occupied American soil!! Well within a couple of years we were fire bombing Tokyo. Quaking in fear because the Hermit Kingdom was assigned to the Axis of Evil is just dumb. I am not saying of would be a second Six Day War but we are not talking Armageddon here. I am not sure that most people u derstand the power of an American Aircraft Carrier Group if fully unleashed against a fixed set of targets in an all out war scenario.
Not much comfort if you live in a high-rise in Seoul but if you live in Kansas or even DC it would be a matter of days before N Korea was reduced from a third world country to something resembling Darfur, the only question being how we keep the remaining population from dying of disease and starvation.
May 25th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
“Christmas Island Hawaii is ludicrous.”
Mostly because Christmas island is not part of the Hawaiian island chain and is part of the independent nation of Kiribati.
May 25th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
It means that NK is not scared of Obama (who wants everyone to like him). NK needs food and fuel and if some nation does not give it they may go to war. The told SK they have canceled the industrial contracts and get the personell out. They plan to try the US reporters. Those actions are nation prepared to go to war. They may hold off if they get what they need. Will the extortion work? You betcha!
This was Obama 3 am call and he could not care less. Bolton called it and still the left call him crazy. Well he has prdicted NK reponse from a rational basis of NK self interest. Obama apology tour told the world that Obama has no intention of defending US interests. So the world determination to talk has lead to this. Maybe we should have shut them down before but kinda late now. Team America had it right the UN and Obama will send a mean letter. Nk will send a nuke.
Right now Obama needs to be smart and not do his “why it is our fault” gig. If I hear Obama blame Bush for this I will scream. Obama needs to grow up and become President instead of sniping candidate.
Iran though Nk did such a neat thing they decided to send a missile. Maybe they coordinated and we will have this crap every holiday.
What will they do for the 4th of July, take out SK Japan?
Wake up and smell the coffee. We need the adults so stop wallowing in childish fantasies.
May 26th, 2009 at 5:32 am
The simple solution is to go back to the Agreed Framework – and this time abide by it and stop screwing around, unlike Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.
Give the North the fuel oil, the light water reactors, and food on condition they dismantle the plutonium plant completely and agree to resume membership in the NPT.
Look, there’s absolutely zero the US can do to North Korea. They’re already as isolated as it gets. You can’t blockade them – that’s an act of war.
So go the other way – give them what they need in exchange for no nukes.
You start a war with these guys, the entire world economy goes into the toilet because the South Korean economy will evaporate in 30 days – and South Korea is a bigger trading partner with China than it is with the US. Both economies, as well as Japan, will be hurt. The world can’t afford a major war in Korea right now.
And the Pentagon estimates 50,000 US casualties in the first ninety days, which will make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a picnic.
So give the North what they want and shut up.
May 26th, 2009 at 9:36 am
Tash, I’d have to regard Obama’s policy in regard to North Korea as largely unproven one way or the other. The simple fact of the matter is that Obama’s been in office only a few months, his policies have not had an opportunity to take effect.
As for John Bolton and his outlandish craziness, I’m sorry, we saw eight years of that under George W. Bush. It’s exactly the sort of childish nonsense that got us in this place now.
So less lunatic partisanship, more clear thinking.
May 26th, 2009 at 9:41 am
If the historical record is anything to go by, this is a situation that will resolve itself.
Very few of these sorts of dictatorships survive into a third generation. The usual pattern is that the first or second generation dictator clears out all potential opposition, which means that all potential successors are eliminated. Policy is frozen for decades, notwithstanding changing or evolving consensus at lower and middle levels.
When the supremo ruler/ruling class finally ages into oblivion, there’s usually a dam breaking. The old order hangs about for a little bit, tries to institute a few reforms. But the forces of change are irresistable and soon all is swept away.
This is basically what happened in Spain, the Dominican Republic, Chile, Argentina, the USSR, Poland, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, etc. etc. etc.
By now, we should all have a very good idea of how these things work.
So, let’s quit the vapors, okay.
May 26th, 2009 at 11:09 am
I agree with bigTom and Jono: The “tin-eared” timing of the test means it has nothing to do with us. Rather, it’s internal strife.