Apr 28th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Specter Leaving GOP
It’s all over cable.
Questions: Will he have seniority in the Democratic caucus? Will he vote like a northeastern Democrat, or will he vote like Ben Nelson?
Update I thought I might look back on my post of March 3:
I doubt Specter will avail himself of this option, but the obvious solution would be to stick to his guns on EFCA and follow up his support for the stimulus by switching parties and, like Jim Jeffords, reposition ideologically somewhat. In other words, stop being a vulnerable moderate Republican and become a plain-vanilla Democrat with a safe seat. It would be pretty easy for Specter, as a Democrat, to beat GOP nominee Toomey in a general election. But beating Toomey in a primary without becoming too right-wing to carry the state will be tough.Weirdly, though, he says in his statement "my position on Employee Free Choice (card check) will not change." He already changed once! Why not change back to his original position?
51 Responses to “Specter Leaving GOP”
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April 28th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
<a href=http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/04/28/arlen-specter-switching-parties.aspx Apparently not.
My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords’ switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change.
Well, in that case screw you Senator. You haven’t won the Democratic primary yet.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Is card check back on the table now?
April 28th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
And then there’s this from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette politics blog this morning: Specter courting social conservatives.
Strange times.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
This is even more evidence that the GOP needs to double-down on being more and more conservative, and appealing more strongly to their conservative base.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Big gamble by Specter. Maybe he thinks he has a better chance of winning the Dem primary than the GOP primary. Why would he think that?
April 28th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Ah, that’s my Senator. About to buttfuck the Republican Party with a broken beer bottle.
Anybody remember my earlier prediction a few months ago that Arlen would get even for that 2004 smacking that Republican extremists put him through in the Primary?
Arlen’s got a mean streak a mile wide. And he will lie out in the weeds for months waiting for the right moment.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
This is great news! For John McCain!!
April 28th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
His vote will certainly be more liberal than Spector’s because he will now be forced to appeal to a group of Democratic primary voters who are far more liberal than those in Nebraska. I would guess that EFCA is certainly back on the table at this point. While Spector might have been able to survive without his traditionally strong support from labor in a general election, their opposition to his candidacy could be extremely detrimental in a Democratic primary.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
I don’t think he would have if they weren’t going full bore to primary him out in 2010. I’m sure he was pissed at 2004, but if this goes through, I’m pretty sure he’s thinking about 2010.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
From the WSJ:
April 28th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
wow, i bet there’s a meeting going on somewhere in the bowels of the white house to figure out what moves up the list, etc.
some obvious nice things about this:
1. arlen might not survive the dem primary.
2. arlen’s super old, so this would likely be his last cycle should it come off.
3. a penny saved in penn is a penny tossed against burr, etc. plus, arlen’s no slouch in fundraising.
4. snowe and collins are going to be feeling mightly lonely.
5. 100 days is tomorrow, this nicely stuffs it in the collective gop face.
6. that club for growth weirdo is going to get shit-canned in the general, without the satisfaction of taking out spectre.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Welcome to the good team, Arlen. We accept cynical opportunists.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
I suspect hes not too concerned about winning the Democratic primary. If he loses, he can just pull a Lieberman and run as an independent.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
WHO GIVES A FUCK, IF HE’S NOT SUPPORTING EFCA?!?
I mean, if he’s going to filibuster with the GOP, then absolutely nothing has changed–he just stands a better chance at being reelected and obstructing policy.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Spike–no, in Pennsylvania that is illegal.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Yeah, I don’t get it either. If he doesn’t support EFCA he’s going to have a hard time winning the Democratic primary. Sure, he can beat Toomey in the general, but he has to get there first, and as long as he opposes EFCA there is guaranteed to be a strong labor-friendly candidate in the primary.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
He’s obviously going to support EFCA. His “position” which he’s not changing is that he couldn’t support it right now because the economy is shitty. In a year or so, which happens to be right when the unions are going to want something in order to campaign for him in the general, they’ll bring it up, maybe slightly compromised, and he’ll find his conscience.
Anyone who gets upset over that statement clearly doesn’t know Arlen Specter.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Spike – PA has a sore loser law, IIRC. If Specter lost the primary he couldn’t switch affiliation to run in the general.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Having a member of the Judiciary Committee switch sides when some of the Supreme Court justices are looking to retire could be important.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Re blah at 5: “Maybe he thinks he has a better chance of winning the Dem primary than the GOP primary. Why would he think that?”
————-
Hell, Arlen may not live until the primary.
But he has plenty of time to make the Republican Party look like something out of Deuteronomy.
They are cursed in the cities, they are cursed in the fields.
They are cursed going in, they are cursed going out.
Their enemies will lie with their wives and the fruits of their mightest labors shall go to another.
Their fate will be an object of awe to the nations of the earth.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
He’s not “supporting” EFCA right now because it would look way too obvious. Just wait til next year and he is running for reelection in the Democratic primary, trying to get union votes and money. I am sure EFCA could pass then. This year is all about strengthening the economy.
If anyone is not happy about this, you are freaking crazy. Think big picture here. He might be a Blue Dog, but a Blue Dog is much more likely to vote with the Dem agenda than any Republican. Even the trucknutz Nelson is better than a Republican with that vote. You aren’t going to get a more liberal Dem in those seats, so would you rather have a straight NO Repub vote. Bravo to Harr Reid, the old dog has a few tricks.
Obama Republicans = Reagan Democrats!!!
April 28th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Voting against your party is all well and good–honorable even. But filibustering your own party is something different. Specter should certainly feel free to vote against EFCA if he thinks that’s the right move. But he absolutely should not back a filibuster.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
@Don Williams in 20
That is my favorite blog comment ever. Thanks.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Re blah at 5: “Big gamble by Specter. Maybe he thinks he has a better chance of winning the Dem primary than the GOP primary. Why would he think that?”
————–
If you don’t realize that this has been hardwired 6 ways from Sunday ..er, Saturday ..by Ed Rendell, you don’t know Philly.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Re Don Williams
It must be frustrating for Mr. Williams to possibly have to put up with someone of Senator Spectors’ ethnic background for another 6 years.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
I’m with Adam. I don’t care what Arlen says, he will end up doing what he thinks he needs to do to win the Democratic primary and the general election, because that is his nature. It just turned out the Republicans wouldn’t let him do both (win both the primary and the general), so they left him no choice.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
I’d guess Specter will continue to vote like Collins/Snowe–50/50ish. Only difference is that Collins/Snowe aren’t facing primary fights.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
He already changed once! Why not change back to his original position?
Because, in the words of Winston Churchill, “Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain amount of ingenuity to re-rat.”
Let’s face it: Specter doesn’t have that much ingenuity.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Don’t kid yourselves that EFCA will get him knocked off in a primary. The bought-and-paid-for party bosses will make damn sure that doesn’t happen.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
I have to agree that he’s either going to end up voting for EFCA, or basically rigging it so it passes without his support (voting for cloture, etc.). Otherwise, switching parties is just going to look like a decision he should have made four weeks ago, before screwing up with the unions.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
These two cases have a number of differences. When Lieberman decided to run as an independent, he was perceived by Republicans as a Democrat moving right. He received tacit support from the Republican establishment. Some Republicans, such as Susan Collins and Newt Gingrich, were public supporters. At the same time, Lieberman had the support of a number of Democrats not ready to jump behind a staunchly anti-war political newcomer. Five Democratic Senators maintained their support for Lieberman in the general.
There is no way Spector would receive the backing of the Republican establishment. He was already facing a good deal of push back from within the party, and now he will be seen as a traitor for jumping ship. While the Democratic establishment will offer some support in the primary, (I believe CNN said that Obama has already promised his backing) if an Allyson Schwartz or a Patrick Murphy emerged as the Democratic candidate, there would not be the same reluctance to fully commit to supporting them that there was with Ned Lamont.
Finally, in 2006 Republican Alan Schlesinger only won 10% of the total vote. 70% of Republicans voted for Lieberman. There is a reason Spector doesn’t think he can win the Republican primary: PA Republicans like Toomey and, while he would not be a viable threat to win in the general election, he would still receive far more than 30% of the Republican vote.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Specter can go sodomize himself with a splintery stick. Pennsylvania isn’t a purple state any more, it’s a blue state; we can replace a wishy-washy moderate with an honest-to-God progressive. We need more pressure from the left, not Broderite centrists. Use Arlen for the next year, then bounce him in the primary and let a liberal beat Pat Toomey down and represent the working people of Pennsylvania.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Their enemies will lie with their wives and the fruits of their mightest labors shall go to another.
Look, the Big Dog’s busy hustling sheiks into helping out folks in Africa, so some of you other guys will have to start laying with Republican wives.
I’ll be glad to help out with lifting the fruits of their labor, though. Those guys are all rich as Scrooge McDuck and not nearly as nice to their nephews.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
“Let’s face it: Specter doesn’t have that much ingenuity.”
Great Churchill quote, but are you serious? Name me three more opportunistic Senators. I think you let the coolness of the quote get in the way of your judgment here.
“Don’t kid yourselves that EFCA will get him knocked off in a primary. The bought-and-paid-for party bosses will make damn sure that doesn’t happen.”
I don’t think I understand. If Specter’s not supporting Democratic priorities, why would the Democratic heavies want him to win the primary, rather than a Democrat who wasn’t a Republican as of brunchtime today?
April 28th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
I think Steve LaBonne is right about this. Who exactly is going to beat Arlen in a Dem primary? Allyson Schwartz? Joe Sestak? Murphy? John Street? Whats-his-name from the Constitution Center, who couldn’t even beat Schwartz in a Dem primary for a Congressional District 4 years ago? Aside from Rendell, who will never run against Arlen, is there a single Dem in PA who’d be polling 51-30 ahead of Arlen in a primary right now?
Now, he may be holding off on changing (back) on EFCA, as Adam says, purely because he’s looking for a fig leaf. Which may be the economy. But it may also be scuttling majority sign-up and watering down the bill significantly.
April 28th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Because, in the words of Winston Churchill, “Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain amount of ingenuity to re-rat.”
And who would know that better than Winston, who managed to rat on two major parties in his career (vigorously screwing over the Tories on at least two seperate occasions)?
April 28th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
I don’t understand either. Why IS the Democratic party so effing useless? But so it is (the PA party and the DSCC have ALREADY announced that he’ll have their backing.)
April 28th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
CNN reports on Specter’s switch:
http://www.gotchamediablog.com/2009/04/sen-arlen-specter-switches-to.html
April 28th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
@ tomemos:
Maybe he’s supporting other priorities, like health care or judicial nominations or carbon regulation or something. He’s not necessarily going to remember why he cosponsored the bill for years just because he switched parties. After all, Lincoln, Feinstein, and Webb have stabbed workers in the back on EFCA, too, and the caucus leadership doesn’t seem to have any problem with them.
April 28th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Re SLC’s comment “It must be frustrating for Mr. Williams to possibly have to put up with someone of Senator Spectors’ ethnic background for another 6 years.”
—————
1) Not at all, SLC. By the way, you left out Ed Rendell and several other local billionaires.
I admire my local Jewboys. Hell, look at that $20 Billion art heist they pulled off from those stupid Gentiles in Lower Marion.
I thought having State Senator Vincent Fumio threaten an ethics investigation of tiny Afro-American Lincoln University was a particularly nice touch. That must have made Vincent’s FBI surveillance team blink. hee hee
See http://www.broadstreetreview.com/index.php/main/article/_Barnescam__Orbr_How_to_Steal_20_Billion/
and
http://opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110004062
3) A stupid Gentile like myself would have just thrown a brick through a window or something.
This political defection is childish simplicity, in comparison.
April 28th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Labor in PA is not going to roll over in the Democratic primary just because the DSCC asks nicely.
April 28th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Keep in mind that the goal of the Democratic Party is to get party members elected, not to make the country a better place.
Part (most) of why Specter’s had such a successful career in a very precarious state is that he is a gigantic whore, perhaps the man with the longest list of unprincipled pandering in Senate history. He will torture-rape that little girl to get your vote.
I’m sure the DSCC loves the move, because he’ll be raping her for the Dems. She was gonna get raped regardless of the party affiliation.
I just want to know how many underage hairless skinny boys we need to send him to get 1) health reform, 2) EFCA, and 3) cap and trade. My fear is that he’ll vote for cloture on all 3 only if we make them not work (see: stimulus, the).
April 28th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Walter Annenberg always lusted for the Barnes Collection, SLC, and went to great lengths to grab it before he died. As the above article described.
Guess what ethnic group he belonged to as well?
April 28th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
I sure hope not. But I don’t know if they can put a challenger across the finish line by themselves. They’ll get a few bucks from me if they make a serious attempt, and I don’t even live in PA.
April 28th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
[...] http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/04/specter-leaving-gop.php [...]
April 28th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
But I don’t know if they can put a challenger across the finish line by themselves.
Not entirely by themselves. But something like 19% of PA Democratic primary voters were union members, and another 12% had a union member in their household. So that is a pretty big block that in a competitive primary you really couldn’t afford to ignore.
Anyway, long experience with Specter suggests to me this won’t even be a close one for him: he’ll find a way to at least not block the EFCA, and may well find a way to vote for it.
April 28th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Specter’s a major douche. How long before he leaves the Democratic party of the “Independent Democrats of Pennsylvania” party like his buddy Jomentum?
April 28th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
I love the irony hidden in this part of his official statement. No doubt most of those 200,000 Republicans are what you might call Obama Republicans, but remember, Limbaugh told his dittoheads to do the same thing, in hopes of keeping Clinton in the Democratic Party’s nomination race as long as possible. How’s Operation Chaos working out for conservatives now?
April 28th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
a couple of addenda:
(1) I see the Dem leadership greasing the skids for him in the primary. I don’t know why they’d do, probably just because they like Arlen and they give a rat’s ass about us.
(2) Apparently Arlen couldn’t change parties between the primary and the general, but I could see him fucking with us as much if not more than Joementum for the sake of looking “bipartisan”.
April 28th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Aside from Rendell, who will never run against Arlen,
Serious question: Why not?
April 28th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
As the U.S. starts down the road of being a one party state, it is easy to see what future elections will look like. If no one challenges Specter in the Democratic primary, the who will win the eleciton in November 2010 is already decided and the voters will have zero choice.