Matt Yglesias

Some Public Opinion With Your Tea?

Tea Parties aside, Barack Obama’s handling of the economy remains extremely popular:

Gallup also reports the following finding that reenforces my general sense that you shouldn’t take public opinion survey data about second-tier personalities and issues at face value:

The partisan ratings of Bernanke have shifted from last year, when he was serving under a Republican president. At that time, the Fed chairman received a 61% confidence rating from Republicans, 43% from independents, and just a 40% rating from Democrats. Apparently, Americans associate the Fed chairman with the particular president he happens to be serving under.

Ben Bernanke was, of course, not only appointed to his Fed job by George W. Bush but he was on the Bush Council of Economic Advisers. But people just have very little awareness of most of what’s happening in the political world, and tend to form their opinions using relatively crude heuristics. People do have strong opinions about Barack Obama, and they see Bernanke appearing next to Obama administration officials and their views shift accordingly.

10 Responses to “Some Public Opinion With Your Tea?”

1. Craig McGillivary Says:
   April 14th, 2009 at 8:55 am

   I find it odd that people even knew who Bernanke is. Did they refer to him as Federal Reserve Chairmen Bernanke? In eight years if Bernanke is still the Federal Reserve chief and the economy is doing well then Republicans will make him into a national hero who deserves all the credit for the economy. Its really important that Obama replaces him with someone who is both competent and liberal.

2. TJ Says:
   April 14th, 2009 at 8:57 am

   He’s still got some time before he turns into a pumpkin. A bad Main St. economy will do in his popularity sooner or later, and probably sooner. That’s just the way it works.

3. Why oh why Says:
   April 14th, 2009 at 9:21 am

   A bad Main St. economy will do in his popularity sooner or later, and probably sooner. That’s just the way it works.

   That’s just the way it works when you screw up everything like Bush. Clinton ended his second term very popular.

4. Moral Panicker Says:
   April 14th, 2009 at 9:28 am

   Isn’t Yglesias a blogger? Aren’t bloggers supposed to
   go “Waaah, landlines!” whenever someone mentions public opinion polling?

5. TJ Says:
   April 14th, 2009 at 9:31 am

   That’s just the way it works when you screw up everything like Bush. Clinton ended his second term very popular.

   Clinton had a bubble. My WAG is that Obama has no more than a year max of a flat regular economy (ie, unemployment) before he’s in the thirties. It’ll probably be worse for him, after orchestrating more money to the rich in a shorter period than Bush ever dreamed of. And I suspect that even though the Republicans like giving cash to the wealthy and corporations, they won’t cavil at using that against the Dems.

6. skeptonomist Says:
   April 14th, 2009 at 9:35 am

   On the whole, this is a sorry list of economic leaders. Obama and Democrats in Congress presumably get points from liberals for pushing through the stimulus, but as far as we know all of those in the poll are working towards keeping the current rotten financial structure in place with little modification. Obama talks big about changing things, but his appointments are almost all from the establishment.

7. Aaron Says:
   April 14th, 2009 at 9:51 am

   Obama at 71% but his Treasury Secretary, Geithner, at 47%? Curious. People historically tend to believe that their rulers are well-intentioned but may be getting bad advice; perhaps that is what is going on here.

   People also may associate the (popular) main street stimulus with Obama and the (unpopular) Wall Street stimulus with Bush/Paulson/Geithner/Bernanke.

8. kth Says:
   April 14th, 2009 at 9:54 am

   Aren’t bloggers supposed to
   go “Waaah, landlines!” whenever someone mentions public opinion polling?

   Only if you have some reason for thinking that the cell-only demo is a locus for anti-Bernanke (or pro-Bernanke) sentiments. Cell-only users tend to be younger than average, which is why it makes sense to think that excluding them from last year’s horse race polling would undercount Obama’s popularity. It’s less clear how such a bias would affect estimates of Bernanke’s approval (except insofar as his track’s Obama’s, as surmised in the OP).