Shoes That Have Not Yet Dropped
Someone asked me earlier today what I thought of the ongoing political unrest in Moldova. I didn’t have anything especially to say, but I was able to make the observation that there’s always the outside chance that Romania will try to intervene in the situation. Moldovans are Romanian-speaking and their territory was part of the Romanian state in the past. The protests are being characterized as “anti-Communist” in nature, but also reflect disagreement about whether Moldova should be oriented toward Bucharest or to Moscow. You can see this reflected in the fact that the party line is that this agitation is all being masterminded by Romania:
“We know that certain forces from Romania masterminded these riots,” Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted Mr. Voronin as saying. “Romanian flags which were planted on state buildings in Chisinau prove this.”
You could imagine Romania and Russia both intervening in this situation as part of a regional tug-o-war. And Romania’s in NATO, so next thing you know maybe it’ll be nuclear war. But obviously that’s unlikely.
Still, the larger issue is that political instability in former Soviet Republics embeds a lot of potentially problematic international conflicts. And the recession is fostering a lot of political instability. Not only in Moldova but also (via Ezra Klein) in Ukraine where, again, domestic political conflicts are tied in with geopolitical struggles between Russia and the West. And there’s also, it seems, trouble in Thailand.
This sort of thing is probably the most fundamental danger in the economic crisis. Given enough time and calm, the policies the major countries have put in place should lead to a recovery sooner or later. But if “sooner or later” takes too long, the calm starts to go away and there are big risks of downward spiraling.
16 Responses to “Shoes That Have Not Yet Dropped”
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April 8th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
“Potentially problematic” was funny when Hermione Granger said it “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” (2005).
April 8th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
The Moldovan leaders are claiming the Romanians are behind the protests, but I am pretty skeptical of that. Russia on the other hand, obviously has influence in Moldova. My sense is that Romania has its own problems and view Moldova pretty pragmatically: sure, we could claim them as our Romanian brothers, but Moldova is really screwed up. That has certainly damped down revanchist sentiment.
April 8th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Here is an AFP article on the Russian reaction if you are interested:
Moldova’s ‘Grapevine Revolution’ out of control: Russian media
MOSCOW, April 8, 2009 (AFP) – Mass protests against the Communist election victory in Moldova may echo popular uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine, but have spun dangerously out of the opposition’s control, Russian media warned Wednesday.
“The opposition quite obviously did not expect such a development,” the state Rossiskaya Gazeta wrote in an article headlined “Moldovan wine is fermenting” in a reference to the country’s wine industry, one of its key sectors.
“Chisinau did not have your regular popular uprising. It had local street hooligans get out of control, sure that local authorities will not rein them in for fear of Europe’s condemnation,” the Rossiskaya Gazeta said.
“The result is sad — Moldovan democracy was dealt serious damage, and it was not the Communist Party’s fault,” the daily judged.
Other newspapers, however, suggested that Moldova was about to follow Georgia and Ukraine into a popular revolt sweeping a new regime into power.
The Novye Izvestia daily even dubbed it “Grapevine Revolution” after the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia and “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine.
“All attributes are there. First the elections, then a rallying mob demanding the resignation of leaders who reportedly falsified the vote, and the opposition dreaming of using the merciless violence to their benefit,” the Izvestia daily echoed.
However, the unrest risked fuelling further violence as the authorities could be preparing to retaliate, newspapers warned.
“The unprecedented rhetoric by the head of state — who compared the opposition with fascists — is quite obviously Vladimir Voronin’s ultimate step to win support from both Russia and Europe,” the Vremya Novostei daily noted.
“Judging by the authorities’ mood, they do not intend to yield. In his address to the nation, Vladimir Voronin made a very harsh statement, calling the opposition’s acts a coup d’etat,” the Kommersant daily pointed out.
“This may mean that the country’s leaders, who refrained from using force to suppress the opposition all day yesterday, may order the army and police to enforce order. Chisinau is waiting for a state of emergency,” the daily warned.
April 8th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Don’t worry about Thailand. Political instability is the norm there.
Kinda like someone with a messy desk, they just wouldn’t know how to deal if things were set right. (Not that there’s anything wholly wrong with Thai politics or messy desks.)
April 8th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
I thought it would tidy things up considerably if the Romanian majority portion of Moldova went (back) to becoming part of Romania, and the Trans-Dniester region to Ukraine. But, I suppose the mafias embedded in both governments would prefer to hang onto their current private fiefdoms.
April 8th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
I also used to wonder why Moldova chose not to rejoin Romania. Here’s a summary of what I learned:
What I’m wondering now is, given the news stories about Moldova having the “last Communist government in Europe” – what, besides their name and origins, makes them Communist? What do they stand for? The necessary context is rarely if ever in these stories.
April 8th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
What makes you think Romania wanted Moldova back? The place is a garbage dump. It’s major economic activities are organized crime and sex trafficking.
April 8th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
Rioting in Thailand is pretty perennial, so I’m not too concerned as long as they don’t shut down the airport again. That really hurts tourism.
April 8th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
We can all see how out-of-date George Washington’s advice about avoiding entangling alliances is from the fact that Romania is now a NATO member. Obviously, it’s crucial for America’s well-being that we be involved in ethnic clashes in the Trans-Dneister, and maybe go to war with Russia over it.
April 8th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
Interestingly enough, Mr. Yglesias’ favorite Israeli, Mr. A. Lieberman, is from Moldova.
April 8th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Chris S.,
What do they stand for? They stand for late-capitalist American cosmopolitan busybodies minding their own bloody business. And they stand for fealty to their elder brother and protector, Russia.
Just what business is it of yours whether Moldova is run by Communists or ‘liberals”?
April 8th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
My understanding from Romanians have I talked to in recent days is that there is little desire to take over Moldova, at least among everyday people.
April 8th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Personally, I hope that the Moldovans learn from this lesson that their only hope for future security lies in rejecting the blandishment of cosmopolite Eurocrats and turning East for help.
April 8th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
“Don’t worry about Thailand. Political instability is the norm there.”
Amen, brother. They don’t even bat an eye when there’s a coup happening. And coups happen there as often as presidential elections happen here. That goes the same for new constitutions. My roommate is there right now, and he doesn’t think it’s anything to worry about. But he’s been through several Thai coups. This time, it’s the pro-Thaksin folk that have their panties in a bunch. When my roommate arrived, it was the anti-Thaksin folk that had the airports shut down. He barely made it into the country because of that. He sent me one of those yellow headbands that the anti-Thaksin people wear. Hopefully, he’ll send me one of the red pro-Thaksin ones as well. I’d like that, I need it to complete my set. In the end, Thailand will be fine, they always are. It’s just too bad that Matt hasn’t learned that yet. If you care, go to the Asia Times site and read Shawn Crispin’s take: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD04Ae01.html. He’s the best writer about Thai politics you’ll ever read. His article was written a week ago, so it’s written more as a prediction, but it holds up well. Crispin’s work always does.
April 8th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
Hmm, sorry about that bad link. Not sure why it doesn’t work. But go to the Asia Times site and look for “Seeing red in Thailand.”
April 8th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
As for the Moldovan issue, I’m at a loss. But if the Romanians are getting involved, color me scared. Nothing good ever comes out of Romania.