Apr 2nd, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Republicans as Unpopular as Ever
How’s that backlash against Barack Obama’s agenda coming? Not so well according to the latest Democracy Corps poll:
Note that this chart makes it difficult to understand the inclination of some Democratic members of the congress to buck the president and join forces with congressional Republicans as an act of political cowardice. The path of least resistance is for Democrats, who are relatively popular, to stick with the President, who’s very popular, and to stay far away from the very unpopular Republicans. Whatever’s driving them, it’s not timidity.
42 Responses to “Republicans as Unpopular as Ever”
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April 2nd, 2009 at 1:19 pm
RE “Whatever’s driving them, it’s not timidity.”
————
What about Money?
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:22 pm
At least the Republicans realize their best chance is for the economy to stay crappy by 2010. Senate Democrats don’t seem to realize that their fortunes are much more attuned to the President than whether the local CoC gives them a nice dinner.
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:32 pm
I’m kinda with Rob on this one. The problem with Nelson and Bayh and the rest of the Wanker Caucus is that they are not sufficiently afraid of the consequences of blowing off a popular president of their own party. The solution appears to be as simple as making them afraid. They love them some glowing WaPo coverage of their moderatehood, but they love them some reelection more.
Why did Spector turn against card check, which he’d previously supported, even in a political climate increasingly friendly to progressives? Because climate or no climate, he was terrified of Toomey’s primary challenge. Nelson and the rest need to worry about having a real progressive challenge them in the Democratic primaries in their state.
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:36 pm
The big problem is that they’re gigantic tools.
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:46 pm
How’s that backlash against Barack Obama’s agenda coming? Not so well according to the latest Democracy Corps poll:
Try looking at more than one poll. Pollingreport.com summarizes the findings of many polls. Obama’s favorability/job approval ratings are generally heading down.
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:47 pm
These approval ratings are national, and the members of the wanker caucus are running in state elections. True, Bayh is from a state that went blue in the last election, but I he may think that’s a fluke.
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Also, what John said.
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:55 pm
What’s driving them are the interests of their friends, fundraisers and funders, plain and simple. The folks back home won’t vote them out in favor of a real Republican because that brand is trash. So far they aren’t afraid of challenges from the Left because their friends, fundraisers and funders have more money than the Left ever will. The Left and Obama have bodies, and only when that and some more progressive money are enough to tip the scales will they change.
Their recalcitrance on climate change is what really irritates me. These people will be dead by the time the temperature and sea level rise make enough of a difference that people have to move. They either don’t believe it is a serious threat or they don’t care about their children and grandchildren.
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Some of the douchebag Democrats actually feel more comfortable with the GOP agenda and would rather be Republicans. For historical reasons, they ended up Democrats and are now stuck.
April 2nd, 2009 at 2:03 pm
charles: According to Pollster.com, Obama’s favorables are trending down, but from almost 70%! And they’re still just under 62%. The dude is still popular, especially for a fascist/socialist who can’t speak coherently without a teleprompter. His job approval rating was trending downward but it bottomed is not trending slightly upward.
But, as Yglesias has said before (which makes this post strange), today’s polling does not really matter. What matters is the state of the economy next year and in 2012. The Serious Centrists are still acting out of timidity because they’re worried about the future of the economy (which is very uncertain). If things get better, they know they are not going to be primaried. But if things stay bad or get worse, distance from Obama may help them survive.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/fav-obama.php
April 2nd, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Obama’s favorability/job approval ratings are generally heading down.
Nah, not really. They did decline early on, during the shift from Grand Historic Moment to actual center-left governing, but the job approval ratings have been steady for a while now.
April 2nd, 2009 at 2:12 pm
charles: According to Pollster.com, Obama’s favorables are trending down, but from almost 70%!
So what? In November 2001, George Bush had an approval rating hit 87%. Things change. Obama’s numbers are heading down. The longer the recession lasts, the more people lose their jobs, the lower Obama’s numbers are likely to get.
April 2nd, 2009 at 2:19 pm
In November 2001, George Bush had an approval rating hit 87%.
So when Bush’s approval ratings were 70% (wild ass guess) in September 2002, would that have been a terrible sign for Republicans in 2002? After all, look at that trend!
April 2nd, 2009 at 2:24 pm
They did decline early on, during the shift from Grand Historic Moment to actual center-left governing, but the job approval ratings have been steady for a while now.
No, they’re sliding. Gallup’s rolling average of Obama’s job approval/disapproval ratings shows the trend. From January through mid-February Obama’s job approval rating was in the mid-to-high 60s, but has since fallen to the low 60s. By the end of March, it hit a low of 59. Meanwhile, his disapproval ratings have been steadily climbing, from the teens in January, to the 20s in February, to the 30s by late March.
April 2nd, 2009 at 2:24 pm
There is a larger issue at work.
Time is running out right quick. Obama represents our last chance. The world will not produce so fine a politician again in my lifetime, of that I’m certain.
We got lucky. Yet we are probably going to blow it.
I am finding hard to reject anything Dmitri Orlov has to say.
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html
If he is right, the window for avoiding total collapse is closing by the second. I say, string those motherf*ckin Blue Dogs up by their balls.
April 2nd, 2009 at 2:55 pm
@ 18 I retract everything I wrote. A talking head on the tele just told me the bear market is over, and good times are about to roll.
April 2nd, 2009 at 3:12 pm
What happened to “try looking at more than one poll”? Pollster provides a regression for all the job approval polls, so why look at just Gallup to determine the trend?
Pollster’s samples are limited, and combining the results of different polls is problematic because of differences in wording and methodology. Gallup’s rolling average provides a clearer indication of the trend over time. But Pollster’s regression also shows a clear trend of declining job approval ratings for Obama since December. And declining favorability ratings also.
April 2nd, 2009 at 3:34 pm
… Becomes this: …
No, DTM, one doesn’t “become” the other. They’re two different statements, with two different meanings. Read them again, look up any words you don’t understand, and perhaps you’ll realize this.
. . . and determine with their own lying eyes whether this is true: But Pollster’s regression also shows a clear trend of declining job approval ratings for Obama since December.
So you’re claiming the regression line since December for the red dots (disapproval) does not slope upwards? And the regression line for the black dots (approval) does not slope downwards? Have you had your own lying eyes checked lately?
April 2nd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
It doesn’t have a consistent slope since December.
The slope of the linear regression line between December and the most recent poll result is down for Obama’s job approval rating and up for his job disapproval rating. This is consistent with Gallup’s rolling average, which also shows Obama’s job approval rating in decline and job disapproval rating climbing.
April 2nd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Indeed they are different. Other words one might apply to describe them are “opposite” and “contradictory.”
So you’re claiming the regression line since December for the red dots (disapproval) does not slope upwards? And the regression line for the black dots (approval) does not slope downwards?
I think he’s claiming that the regression line for the red dots ceased sloping upwards, and the regression line for the black dots ceased sloping downwards about two weeks ago, and now slopes downward, indicating a falling disapproval rating and a rising approval rating. You would have been correct if you’d phrases your statement in the past tense – “the regression line since December did not slope downwards,” etc. – but that trend clearly ended.
April 2nd, 2009 at 4:33 pm
DTM, if we can’t get anything done with 58 Senators, it really doesn’t make a difference if we only have 53 Senators. We still won’t get anything done.
So there isn’t really any downside. You just fail to understand that. You think this is always true : Democrat> blue dog> Republican. But when those blue dogs ruin all discipline and always vote with Republicans, it’s better to have a Republican. It’s a lot easier to beat someone from the other party than someone in your own. You are arguing for short term gain rather than a long term strategy. That is kind of everything thats wrong with the Democratic party.
April 2nd, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Looking at the Pollster.com favorability chart, it’s interesting that every single poll since the election that has Obama’s favorability at 30 or higher is a Rasmussen poll, except for one recent Fox poll. Every other pollster has been about ten points lower than Rasmussen.
April 2nd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Really, why should those of us who want EFCA, better regulations, and a more balanced approach to economic policies than ‘give rich people everything, cuz they iz gud’, even bother supporting the party? So you guys get the issues you care about taken care of?
Thats not how this works. You stand by us, or we won’t be standing by you. Remember 2000? You’re the kind of guy who blames lefties for not voting for a party who didn’t share any of their beliefs. I blame the Democrats who spent all their time telling lefties not to bother voting for them because they didn’t want them in their party.
April 2nd, 2009 at 6:35 pm
Now maybe you are mentally drawing your own perfectly straight line from December to now,
A linear regression line is a perfectly straight line. The whole point of a regression analysis is to determine the underlying trend. The slope of the line is a measure of the magnitude of the trend. The underlying trend between December and now is undeniably a trend of declining approval and rising disapproval.
April 2nd, 2009 at 8:56 pm
Re: Obama’s favorability/job approval ratings are generally heading down.
The polling average on RealClearPolitics.com showed a decline from the inauguration bounce in the first weeks, but since mid February Obama’s average across polls had fluctuated (very slightly) around 60%. Whistle past the graveyard all you want: there is no evidence, I repeat no evidence, that Obama will be matching George Bush’s bargain basement poll numbers or that the GOP is seeing the slightest recovery.
April 3rd, 2009 at 6:01 am
Matt needs to get used to this. AS the Republicans fad away and the Democratic Party is the only relevant party, the amount of disagreement inside the Democratic Party will increase. There is no reason for Byah and Nelson (and others) to go along with the the crazy extremist of the Democratic Party just to keep the Republicans from winning.
As the U.S. becomes a one party state, the far left side of the Democratic party will lose power since there will no reason for the moderate Democrats to continue to tolerate them.
April 4th, 2009 at 10:17 am
I bet Even Bayh is more popular in Indiana then Congressional Democrats are. He might even be more popular there than Obama.
April 4th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
thanks for all