Apr 18th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
NBA Playoff Predictions
With the beginning of the NBA playoffs today, I think I owe the world some predictions.
In the East, first round we’ll see Cleveland beat Detroit, Boston beat Chicago, Orlando beat Philadelphia, and Miami beat Atlanta. Cleveland beats Miami in round two, and thanks to Kevin Garnett’s injury Orlando beats Boston. Then Cleveland beats Orlando.
In the west, first round we’ll see LA beat Utah, Denver beat New Orleans, Dallas beat San Antonio, and Portland beat Houston. In round two, LA beats Portland (but it’ll be valuable experience for this promising young squad) and Denver beats Dallas. LA will beat Denver in a thoroughly non-exciting conference finals.
Last, Cleveland will win the championship. What do you think?
54 Responses to “NBA Playoff Predictions”
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April 18th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Lakers over Cavs in 6. The Lakers’ length at the 4 will yield a lot of easy buckets. Lebron will shoot the ball poorly–the outside shot will be given to him. The Cavs defense is particularly good at defending the pick and roll–which the Lakers don’t rely on.
April 18th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Reasonable, if fairly unadventurous predictions. I do think San Antonio has a much better shot at beating Dallas than people think.
I’m a Cavs fan so I can’t predict the East as I have no objectivity. Seems likely the Cavs will make the Finals but I can’t really say.
I do think the Lakers are a bit better than the Cavs, though. I am definitely hoping they stumble in the early rounds and Cleveland gets to face someone else.
Portland is becoming a very sexy pick and they did get a nice break in that they don’t have to face the Spurs, but they have turned in some awful performances on the road and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose to Houston.
April 18th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Matt:
I’ve had a running discussion with some friends with the premise being that if Cleveland wins the title (a big IF from this Laker fan but nevertheless), Lebron will have accomplished something Jordan never did, and perhaps no one has ever done. That is win a ring with a less than stellar supporting cast. Jordan had Scottie (HOF), Horace, Rodman. Magic had Kareem, Worthy, Scott, etc. Bird had Ainge, Parrish, McHale. And the list goes on and on. Lebron would win arguably with the least likely team in the history of the NBA. That – I think – would be a huge feather in his cap.
But Go lakers!
Marc
April 18th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Re #3
n.b. Rick Barry and the Warriors in 74-75.
April 18th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Geez, way to go out on a limb. The only upsets are against Boston (w/o KG) and San Antonio (w/o Ginobili).
Then again, it’s not your fault that there are two dominant teams, one in each conference, and few series that look to be super competitive.
@Marc: what about HAKEEM OLAJUWON in 1994 when he won with his second best player being either Vernon Maxwell or Otis Thorpe?
April 18th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
I get the feeling that San Antonio will (unfortunately) go further, not least because Dallas can be guaranteed at least one choke, and the Spurs are the kind of annoying team that helps out chokers. I still think the Celtics make it to the eastern final.
And I think you ought to go and watch Caps-Rangers, if you can get tickets.
April 18th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
@#4
Good point with regard to surprising teams. I was more comparing the efforts of star players who led their teams to championships. No doubt Barry’s accomplishment was stellar in 75. And Barry was a good if not great player. But I don’t think anyone’s going to argue whether Barry was better than Jordan or Lebron.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
@ Jim
They had a little more than Maxwell/Thorpe. They also had Sam Cassell, Mario Elle, Robert Horry and Kenny “the Jet”. I think he clearly had a bit more help than Lebron does this year.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
I think you’re underestimating the Celtics’ bench. Leon Powe and Glenn Davis are the real deal. They’re not KG, but they’re enough for a Celtics team that “only” has Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Rajon Rondo as its starts to beat Orlando in a home-court series.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
And, yeah, it’s Cleveland’s year. Lebron is a Jordan/Bird/Magic-level talent, and he’s not a baby anymore.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Stick to talking about the news!
Atlanta will beat miami in five.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
As a portland fan, I sadly think the Lakers beat the Blazers in 7 (everyone wins their home games!) and Lakers beat Cavs in 6. The Cavs are good, but the Lakers are definitely better, especially with Bynum back.
I think Orlando might give the Cavs a scare – here’s to hoping for an Orlando – Portland finals
April 18th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
I’d probably go with Atlanta over Miami in the first round. Wade could very well win a series by himself, but I think over seven games, the Hawks have too many weapons.
Portland vs. Houston is harder. I’m leaning towards the Rockets because Greg Oden is a foul machine at this point and Yao is a good free throw shooter. (Although Vanilla Gorilla will probably play the bulk of the minutes.
Dallas vs. San Antonio- My heart tells me the Mavs, but my head says go with Duncan, Parker and Popovich even though I fucking hate the Spurs. If Josh Howard shows up, I think Dallas will win, but that’s a big if.
Finals: Lakers over Cavs in 6.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the Nuggets will continue their perfect streak of not winning championships.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Lakers FTW, ATL over MIA, and Spurs over Mavs. Otherwise fine. Who has the link to the predictions at the start of the season? I know I had a LA-CLE final, but I think I had DET and the Spurs in the final four.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
No way Boston loses to Orlando. It’s not like the Celtics just suddenly started playing w/o KG, they’ve gotten used to his absence, and they can definitely finish off an overhyped Orlando squad.
Also, as much as I love watching the Blazers, I don’t think people realize how terribly they match up against the Rockets. Home court will be huge for Portland, but I could see them going down in 6 and disappointing everyone who’s jumped on the Blazer bandwagon.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Detroit have done a remarkable fade this year from many preseason picks, haven’t they? Can we blame Iverson?
April 18th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Houston over LA in round 2 (after beating Portland in round 1).
Since I am at it, Chelsea over Barca and Arse over ManU.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Boston, eh, it goes without saying, huh?
Orlando scares me, but I think they have flaws that will show more prominently over the course of a seven game series- particularly the reliance on three-point field goals and poor offensive rebounding.
I personally think the Cavs will edge out the Lakers. I don’t have very strong convictions about that, but I will say two things- 1) not sure regular reason matchups have typically proven reliable predictors of post-season outcomes and 2) to those predicting LA in 6: really? In a 2-3-2 format? 5 games or 7 games would make more sense. I highly doubt the Cavs pick one off in LA and yet it seems awfully difficult to win 4 consecutively.
Also, award predictions?
April 18th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Detroit have done a remarkable fade this year from many preseason picks, haven’t they? Can we blame Iverson?
No. Petey will insist that the Pistons were better off because their roster more closely resembled the blueprint for winning the championship. Which trumps the fact that the roster became worse with Iverson. Or something.
And that’s obviously an air tight argument because even if the Pistons got demoted to the D-League the claim is still not falsifiable.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
I want the Lakers to win it all, therefore the Lakers will win it all.
Wishful thinking has never worked for me in the past, but I just know it will this time.
April 18th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Houston over LA in round 2
The triumph of hope over sense.
I personally think the Cavs will edge out the Lakers.
I’m mildly sympathetic to this belief because I do think it will be a really close series. But I can’t figure out why it will be a close series. The Lakers are really stacked. After LeBron beats Kobe, I’m not sure the Lakers lose another position matchup. Maybe at PG.
April 18th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
“Portland is becoming a very sexy pick”
Portland was a sexy pick a week ago. Now they’re a cliched pick.
—–
“No. Petey will insist that the Pistons were better off because their roster more closely resembled the blueprint for winning the championship. Which trumps the fact that the roster became worse with Iverson. Or something.”
Saddest season I’ve ever watched. Happy basketball teams are all alike; every unhappy basketball team is unhappy in its own way.
You could write a very long, very complicated, and very tragic novel about the Iverson/Pistons saga this year.
—–
Dwyane is the show to watch during this round.
April 18th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
I think folks are misunderestimating KG’s value to the Celtics. Emotion plays a large part in a winning ball club (unless you are the Spurs; laconic anyone?).
April 18th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
The triumph of hope over sense.
I think that the Houston defense has the ability to control Kobe and Pau. And the Lakers supporting cast has gotten mysteriously worse over the past few months – see especially their PGs. Bynum is obviously a wild card.
(I think this also applies to Portland – Battier/Artest have the ability to control Roy.)
Also, I think there is some Ewing Theory with T-Mac out. Houston is better and will go farther in the playoffs without T-Mac than with him.
April 18th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Happy basketball teams are all alike; every unhappy basketball team is unhappy in its own way.
Petey, do you think Iverson was just unhappy this year? Or injured? What’s the deal with him? Hard to believe that just “unhappiness” would cause Iverson to destruct so spectacularly – especially in a contract year.
I happen to think Iverson is done. But then again I’ve never been an Iverson fan.
April 18th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
I should say, I’ve never been an Iverson fan in the NBA. I was a huge Iverson fan in college.
April 18th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Iverson’s ‘injury’ was bullshit. The guy is legendary for his toughness, but a sore back keeps him out just as he was relegated to the 2nd unit? Dude was pouting.
He should sign with Charlotte next year(really). I think it would actually be a pretty good fit.
April 18th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
“Petey, do you think Iverson was just unhappy this year? Or injured? What’s the deal with him?”
After trying to mesh Iverson in for about a month, the Pistons decided to jump start their rebuilding and play Stuckey on the ball. Once that decision was made, Iverson had no place to go. He’s of no use off the ball.
And I think Detroit management was happy to have their fans focus on the Iverson saga rather than the team’s decline from its salad days. Once January rolled around, management was intentionally trying to put Iverson in bad situations on the court.
The way the story plays, Iverson comes off cast as the bad guy, which works well for Dumars and the franchise.
—–
It was a sad saga because if the Pistons had been willing to hold off Stuckey one more year, they had the personnel to make a genuine playoff run. Iverson can still create a goodly amount of beneficial chaos for his team, and Detroit has a lot of veteran finishers that can take advantage.
They were actually an intriguing team for the month or so they gave for the team to find its balance with Iverson.
In short, they coulda been a contender if the rug hadn’t been pulled.
April 18th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Iverson can still create a goodly amount of beneficial chaos for his team
Sure, if they’re able to trade him to the opposing team. If every team you leave–through trade or “injury”–improves, at some point you need to accept that you’re Marbury. The Pistons got what they wanted: cap space and sufficient hope to cover the remainder of the season after the trade.
More interesting is what happens next. I think Iverson retires. I don’t love him or his game, but I will be sorry to see him go out like that.
April 18th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
“(I think this also applies to Portland – Battier/Artest have the ability to control Roy.)”
Oh man, thanks for the laugh! Brandon Roy is going to light Houston up, just you wait. If the Blazers can set the tempo (and I think they will at home), they’re going to run circles around Houston’s huge lumbering lineup. Everyone expects a big Yao/Oden showdown, but I don’t think they’ll play that way – it’s never been Portland’s style anyway. Portland will do best if they can go small with Aldridge at center, make Houston look like a bunch of gigantic Treebeards, and outrun them. The only thing that scares me about Houston as a Blazer fan is Shane Battier, that guy is a wizard.
And the handful of you saying Portland “got lucky” not having to face the Spurs must not have seen Portland beat them handily in the season series 3-1, not to mention that Timmy D & Ginobili are both going to be MIA for this playoff season. The Spurs will be lucky to make it through the first round this year, I think. They look really old this year.
As for predictions, I would bet it’ll be a Lakers/Cavs final, if only because the NBA already has all the t-shirts printed up & it’s easier to get the refs to throw a couple of games here and there (what’s new?). If I had to guess, I’d say the Cavs will beat the Lakers and it won’t go to 7 games.
April 18th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Here’s what I got, agreeing completely with Matty on the East, but with Mavericks being the best futures bet of this bunch, take the odds on them making it to WCF.
LA over Utah, Denver over NO, Dallas over SA, Houston over Portland
LA over Houston, Dallas over Denver
LA over Dallas
LA over Cavs
Cavs over Magic
Cavs over Heat, Magic over Boston
Cavs over Pistons, Celtics over Bulls, Magic over Sixers, Heat over Atlanta
…and yes I know Celtics lost Game 1, still got ‘em in Round 2.
April 18th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
“Sure, if they’re able to trade him to the opposing team. If every team you leave–through trade or “injury”–improves, at some point you need to accept that you’re Marbury.”
Iverson has been significantly better than Marbury at every milepost of their respective careers. If Iverson comes back next year, I’m sure he’ll again be better than Marbury at this stage.
—–
“More interesting is what happens next. I think Iverson retires. I don’t love him or his game, but I will be sorry to see him go out like that.”
Interesting indeed. He’s still got some game left.
Dunno what he’s going to do. I’d guess it’ll have a lot to do with the situations available to him. I’d love to see him to go to a smart, self-confident, veteran coach with a veteran team who will know how to use him to good effect.
But if he does goes out like this, I don’t think it’s bad. It’s all very Tony Montana:
April 18th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Utah and LA, now that SA is without Ginobili, are the only good playoff teams in the West. Too bad the Jazz had to choke at the end of the season.
If Denver goes to the conference finals and does anything against LA, people should talking about Billups in the Hall of Fame.
April 18th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
We’re getting Bulls fever here in Chicago. Catch It!
April 18th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
God, I hate to agree with Dave Berri, but it’s funny watching Petey avoid admitting that Iverson just isn’t that good anymore.
April 18th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
Anyway, Cleveland will win it all, in 6 or 7 games over the Lakers. Not sure about the rest of it, but I like the Bulls chance in Round 1, and I like Portland’s, and I like New Orleans’.
April 18th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
Iverson’s problem is the thing that made him special was his explosiveness, and now he’s lost a couple of steps. He’s a decent shooter, but not exactly a “good” one. A 6-foot shooting guard who’s not that great a shooter and isn’t that quick anymore just isn’t a very good NBA player. It was bound to happen.
April 18th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Oh, and another “upset” pick: I really like Miami over Atlanta. It’s a bad idea in this league to bet against the team that has the best player by about 300%.
April 18th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
[...] right? So this guy I kind of know predicts the Blazers will beat the Rockets, only to be “schooled” as the saying goes by the Lakers, [...]
April 19th, 2009 at 12:04 am
[...] right? So this guy I kind of know predicts the Blazers will beat the Rockets, only to be “schooled” as the saying goes by [...]
April 19th, 2009 at 12:11 am
I know the Heat suck & will struggle vs. ATL & even if they win they will fade shortly thereafter. But I will never understand this blog’s proprietor’s antipathy toward DWade. So he’s not Kobe or LeBron or Jamieson or whoever slips your screen – - but surely 2006 + the Olympics + this year on an o/w mediocre team deserve some appreciation. No??
April 19th, 2009 at 4:16 am
A team has to lose in the Finals once before taking it all. It’s the law.
Lakers over the Finals-inexperienced Cavs in 6.
Cavs win next year, probably.
April 19th, 2009 at 7:58 am
“God, I hate to agree with Dave Berri, but it’s funny watching Petey avoid admitting that Iverson just isn’t that good anymore.”
Of course, Berri’s contention is not that Iverson isn’t any good anymore. Berri’s contention is that Iverson was worse than the average NBA player at the peak of his game.
And if you buy that, I’ve got some GM common stock I’d like to sell you.
—–
“Iverson’s problem is the thing that made him special was his explosiveness, and now he’s lost a couple of steps. He’s a decent shooter, but not exactly a “good” one. A 6-foot shooting guard who’s not that great a shooter and isn’t that quick anymore just isn’t a very good NBA player. It was bound to happen.”
Iverson’s gift is not speed or explosiveness. It’s his handle. And that’s still intact.
He still can’t be covered without zones or double-teams, which means that a smart coach can put the other four players in position to take advantage of the extra attention that defenses give to Iverson. Offense becomes easy when you play four on three.
He needs to play 34mpg rather than 42mpg at this point of his career, but he’s still got some elite game left in the tank.
And while we’re at it, Iverson is not a shooting guard. Various coaches have seen profit in publicly mouthing that concept at various points of his career, but if you actually watch the games, you’ll find that Iverson plays the same position as Baron Davis or Tony Parker – aka a PG who also looks for his own shot – aka a combo guard.
—–
You’re usually better than this, too many steves.
April 19th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Turnaround:
Cleveland made the 2007 finals.
Petey:
Iverson does play the same position as Tony Parker. He just plays it TERRIBLY. Iverson would be a good point guard if he had the discipline. But he’s a horrible scorer. HORRIBLE.
A player who takes a lot of shots at hits 42% of them is not a useful player. A third banana can get away with that if he’s a really good defender. Iverson could have been a great point guard, or a decent third option as a combo guard on a good team.
But he never had any time for that. He has to get his. And that’s why he’s not and never has been anything in the NBA except a headache.
April 19th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Turnaround Says:
April 19th, 2009 at 4:16 am
A team has to lose in the Finals once before taking it all. It’s the law.
Lakers over the Finals-inexperienced Cavs in 6.
Cavs win next year, probably..
Totally! Just like the Celtics!
April 19th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
It’s good to know you think so highly of me, Petey. I’m not really in the Berri camp — obviously AI in his prime was a great player. But right now he’s a below average PG and a below average SG. I just don’t see the value in a complimentary player who dominates the ball. And from what I’ve seen of him earlier this season, I don’t think he demands a double-team anymore.
April 19th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
“And from what I’ve seen of him earlier this season, I don’t think he demands a double-team anymore.”
Well, he was just fine in 07-08. So you can either decide that he fell off the cliff in the summer of ‘08, or you can decide that Detroit’s odd decision to play him off the ball was the reason he wasn’t particularly effective in 08-09.
And for the month that Detroit was playing him on the ball, he was getting regular double-teams.
He’s still got some elite game left in him at the point.
The problem for any acquiring team is that there is a growing chance every season as he ages that he’ll get genuinely injured. So any contending team that picks him up for 09-10 needs to have a paucity of options.
I’d love to see him go to Houston.
April 19th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
We’re hearing some strange stuff being said about AI, like he has always been a headache. Huh? The guy literally carried his team to the Finals and a near championship one season, anyone watching that postseason can testify about Mr. Allen Iverson.
As for whether he’s “done”, or “below-average” point guard, these are clearly statements made by people who really don’t have true insight into the game, and get infected by the hype that surrounds the game, because Allen Iverson is still very much an elite basketball player, he just didn’t fit in at Detroit, while with Denver they were still a very good basketball team with him, 50-32 with AI last season, 54-28 with Billups this season, only a 4 game difference.
You put AI on a team like NY with D’Antoni, he’ll go back to putting up 25-27 points per game and being a threat, and he’s a point guard, not able to double as a shooting guard anymore, unless of course you’ve got a PG like Chris Duhon who can cover 2s.
Imagine AI on NY, they’d have either him or Nate on the floor at all times, and that would fuel the 7-second offense even greater, and there’s other teams AI would fit on too, it’s just a matter of how much he’s willing to make (for instance, if he has a chip on his shoulder, he could join Dallas for the MLE, and imagine a team starting Kidd, AI, Howard and Dirk, that team would dominate, and Kidd could defend the 2).
April 19th, 2009 at 8:42 pm
“You put AI on a team like NY with D’Antoni, he’ll go back to putting up 25-27 points per game and being a threat”
While this is true, I’d rather see him go to a team that has a chance of contending next year. And for all of D’Antoni’s virtues, that ain’t the Knicks.
The idea for next year isn’t to get Iverson buckets. The idea is to get him to a team that can build on the advantages he confers to get to the next level.
Adelman is a actually a pretty good, creative, and flexible basketball mind, which is why I’d love to see Iverson in Houston. If they think McGrady is toast, it’d make sense for both sides.
April 20th, 2009 at 8:15 am
“A player who takes a lot of shots at hits 42% of them is not a useful player.”
FG% is really not a relevant metric. TS% is.
Check out the numbers.
In 08-09, Iverson’s TS% was 50%. Given what else Iverson brings, you are correct, that is not a useful player.
However, in 07-08, Iverson’s TS% was 57%. Given what else Iverson brings, that is a useful player.
As stated slightly upthread, there are two possible explanations here: either Iverson got old suddenly in the summer of ‘08, or Detroit’s odd decision to play him off the ball made him a not useful player.
Given that I’ve long thought he wasn’t useful played off the ball, I lean towards the second explanation.
April 20th, 2009 at 8:39 am
“if he has a chip on his shoulder, he could join Dallas for the MLE, and imagine a team starting Kidd, AI, Howard and Dirk, that team would dominate, and Kidd could defend the 2).”
Bad fit. Both Iverson and Kidd need to be played on the ball.
The fact that Iverson is useless played off the ball limits his potential situations.
If you look at contending teams who don’t have superior talent on the ball, you end up with a list like:
- Houston (assuming McGrady is not central to their plans)
- Lakers
- Atlanta (if Bibby isn’t re-signed)
If Iverson doesn’t want to be a backup, and wants a chance at a ring, I think those are the realistic destinations. If he’s willing to play limited minutes, the list of teams obviously would expand.
April 20th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Neither Phil Jackson nor Kobe Bryant is going to want AI dominating the ball, in the Triangle, so you can subtract the Lakers.
April 23rd, 2009 at 10:51 am
Chauncey Billups has been amazing in these first two games. Averaging over 30 points, 12/15 3pm/a, 19/19 ftm/a, no turnovers, and above all the statistical production, just oozing out leadership and confidence so hard the rest of his teammates just can’t help but be infected by it. Billups for AI = Best trade of the 2008-09 season, and by a long, long way. Thank you Joe Dumars!