Arlen Specter’s Ideological Meandering
Dave Weigel takes an informative look inside Arlen Specter’s pre-primary efforts to remake himself into a more conservative figure, the better to fend off a strong challenge from former Congressman Pat Toomey. The basic gist of Specter, as I understand it, is that Pennsylvania conservative see him as fundamentally a liberal squish who dashes right whenever he’s facing a challenge from the right. Pennsylvania progressives, meanwhile, see him as fundamentally a conservative who dashes left whenever he’s facing a challenge from the left. Everyone hates him, in other words, except the voters of Pennsylvania who seem to like him just fine.
The fundamental situation looks quite good for Toomey to me. He almost beat Specter in 2004 at a time when a very popular conservative incumbent president was strongly backing the more moderate choice. Without those kinds of friends in high places to back him up, Specter should be in big trouble. The question then becomes whether or not a top-tier Democrat will emerge to run against Toomey. There’s no real evidence that an orthodox conservative can win in Pennsylvania anymore than an orthodox conservative could win in Maryland or Delaware or New Jersey. But Specter is hugely popular so PA Democrats haven’t been clamoring to get into a hard-to-win race against him. Toomey, by contrast, would be very beatable if a solid candidate emerged.
13 Responses to “Arlen Specter’s Ideological Meandering”
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April 3rd, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Matt – what did you think of Hank Greenberg’s testimony (victory lap) before Congress on Thursday?
April 3rd, 2009 at 6:17 pm
There’s no real evidence that an orthodox conservative can win in Pennsylvania anymore than an orthodox conservative could win in Maryland or Delaware or New Jersey.
Well, us Pennsylvanians did suffer the indignity of having Rick Santorum represent us a few years back. We did boot him out once his wingnuttery became widely apparent, though.
April 3rd, 2009 at 6:25 pm
Well, us Pennsylvanians did suffer the indignity of having Rick Santorum represent us a few years back.
This is sort of the exception that proves the rule, though, isn’t it (in the actual, meaningful sense of the widely abused phrase)? He didn’t just get booted out when he ran for reelection, he got crushed in a way that incumbents almost never get crushed, even after being indicted.
April 3rd, 2009 at 8:08 pm
He could also pull a Leiberman if Toomey beats him in the primary and run as an independent. I suspect with him splitting the conservatives with Toomey, a decent Democrat would have a pretty good chance, but Specter would also be able to take some of the more moderate positions that seem natural to him.
April 3rd, 2009 at 8:18 pm
TW, I’ve read elsewhere that PA law prohibits The Lieberman Maneuver, so I’m not sure that option is available to Specter.
April 3rd, 2009 at 9:32 pm
These kind of craven displays from a 79 year old man are deeply undignified. Specter will be nearly 81 when he begins his term if he is re-elected, and nearly 87 when that term is over. He’s a cancer survivor. Is continuing to be a senator really so important to him that he wants to go through this whole awful game of sucking up to the right and then sucking up to the left just so he can be nearly as old as Robert Byrd at the end of his next term?
Which is to say, why doesn’t he retire? I can understand wanting to stay in the Senate if it’s easy to do, like it was for Lautenberg last year or Byrd in 2000 and 2006.
I could even understand wanting to run for re-election in general, even if it’s going to be a difficult race. What I don’t understand is the pure cravenness of this – the fact that his entire reason for staying in the Senate appears to be so that he can stay in the Senate. If he needs to go right to stay there, then so be it. If he needs to go left, he can do that too. It doesn’t matter, as long as he gets to be an 85 year old senator. It’s embarrassing, and I’m embarrassed that he’s my senator (although I voted for the other guy last time around)
I don’t understand why Rendell doesn’t run. He’d obviously crush Toomey, but I think he’d pretty easily beat Specter, too, especially if Specter spends the next year and a half pandering to the right in order to beat Toomey. Rendell is term-limited and can’t run for re-election for governor. And I think he’s fairly unlikely to get a cabinet appointment from Obama. So why not move to the Senate? It seems like a logical next step for him, but I never hear any rumors that he’s interested in it at all.
April 3rd, 2009 at 9:45 pm
Ahmm I wouldnt say Arlen is *hugely* popular. Even without a challenge from Toomey Id say a credible Dem could knock him off.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1280
April 4th, 2009 at 2:16 am
John,
Rendell and Specter are friends. Rendell worked in Specter’s office when the latter was DA. He’d never run against him.
April 4th, 2009 at 11:17 am
As the PA gubernatorial race shakes itself out (esp. internally, on the Demo side), it may well be that deals are made leading some current gub. hopefuls to look Senate-ward. Tom Wolf (no e, no white suits), former Revenue Secretary for Rendell, would be an interesting choice. Or Dan Onorato, Allegheny Co. chief executive…
Just thank god it’s not going to be Chris Matthews, whose campaign would have been a colossal embarrassment to the state!
April 5th, 2009 at 12:32 am
Since 1934, 1982 is the only Penna. Governor’s race where the Pasrty of the sitting President won. I’d bet on a Republican win there.
Meanwhile, Penna. more often than not splits for a US Senator of the Party opposite to the Governor or Presidential candidate who wins the state. While I’d give an edge to the Democrat on that, the vast majority of non-split exceptions have been Republican sweeps.
“Past History is no Guarantee of Future Performance.”
April 6th, 2009 at 9:24 am
I think Arlen’s hosed, no matter what he does, and I don’t see anyway that the GOP can hold his seat. There simply aren’t many moderates left in the PA GOP, because Santorum, Toomey and their ilk have scared them off. PA has a closed primary, so Specter would need to get a bunch of former Republicans who have either registered as Dems or as independents to reregister as Republicans, which I don’t see happening. Arlen’s one opportunity to win the primary is to have a bunch of conservatives run against him, splitting the vote and allowing him to win with a plurality.
But even if Specter wins the primary, he’d still have to win the general. The conservatives would much rather lose than vote for Specter, so they’ll sit on their hands. He can’t count on union support, which he’s won previously, because he came out against card check.
And if the GOP nominates someone like Toomey, they have no shot in the general. So all the Democrats have to do is nominate someone who can walk and chew gum at the same time, and they’re home free.
April 9th, 2009 at 6:07 am
If you ever want to hear a reader’s feedback
, I rate this article for four from five. Detailed info, but I just have to go to that damn google to find the missed parts. Thanks, anyway!