Is LeBron James Having One of the Best Seasons Ever?
John Hollinger says the answer is yes and that LeBron James 2008-2009 season is almost as good as Michael Jordan’s 1987-88 season. One key argument is this chart, which adjusts everyone’s numbers to a flat per-40-minute basis and adjusts to the faster pace of the ‘86-’88 Bulls:
I’m not sure, however, that it really makes sense for those of us who aren’t John Hollinger to lean so heavily on his PER stat. Look at shooting efficiency—Jordan had a TS% of 60.3 in the 1988 season, James’ is 58.6; indeed, in the 1989 season Jordan got all the way up to 61.4 and I would say arguably that was a better season than his top PER year as his rebound rate was higher then too.
I would say, in other words, that while LeBron is very good—and still only 24—Jordan still outpaces him. But note that LeBron is still only 24; it wouldn’t be unusually for him to continue improving for several more seasons. In particular, it would only take a small improvement in his 3 point percentage to turn this into an efficient shot, at which point all bets would be off in terms of defending him.
66 Responses to “Is LeBron James Having One of the Best Seasons Ever?”
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March 24th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
The first thing I did after reading the article was to open a new tab and type in yglesias.thinkprogress.org. Sure enough you have a contrarian point of view without saying why PER is not something to “lean on”. LBJ will get his J better, but he is having a phenomenal season. You have to watch the games to see how much he makes everyone else better.Its unfriggin’ believable.
Get over your wizards bitterness and recognize greatness for once. To quote Petey “He is the word made flesh”
March 24th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
No wonder Jordan was so good. He averaged 40.4 minutes per 40 minutes!
Also, given it looks like everyone else’s stats were adjusted upwards, wouldn’t it make more sense to just normalize everything to the average pace of play this year?
March 24th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
To be honest, nobody really cares about those stats. Jordan is a legend because he won, along with Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant (what are their stats?). If James doesn’t win a NBA title, he will be in the same category as Barkley or Malone.
March 24th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
What Why oh Why said. It’s worth noting that Jordan DIDN’T win in 1987-88– he was too selfish at that point and Phil Jackson hadn’t come yet.
Further, how can you possibly discuss what season qualifies as the “best” without mentioning defense? The greatest winner in NBA history, Bill Russell, never had an offensive season that would come close to making that chart. But he– and importantly, his teams– played defense.
March 24th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
#3: True. You should also note this is from the ‘88 season, which I believe is before Pippen or anyone else and back when they were losing in the first round every year. Kind of like AI used to be, I guess.
March 24th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
I take it that his performance in the Olympics and throughout this season with the 15-win last-season Heat has not disabused you from your petty antipathy toward DWade. Somehow I thought you would be “big” enough to overcome your distaste for him, but I underestimated your stubborness and refusal to change your opinions according to current circumstances. Sad.
March 24th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
I would say, in other words, that while LeBron is very good—and still only 24—Jordan still outpaces him. But note that LeBron is still only 24
In the 1987-88 season, Michael Jordan was… 24 years old.
(To be fair, he turned 25 right after the all-star break, and LeBron just turned 24 in late December, so effectively there is a one-year age gap, but still, not a big difference)
March 24th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
And for what its worth, I believe that I watch an unhealthy amount of sports (both range and quantity) and I have to say that in my many years I have never come across a more unselfish player in all of sports.
LBJ is the epitome of unselfishness and greatness. Some people may appear to be more unselfish but with his abundant gifts I have never seen a more team oriented player. (Except maybe on current form Captain Fantastic StevieG ,though he has his streaks now and then when he goes for glory, albeit pulling it off more than once.)
March 24th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
The greatest winner in NBA history, Bill Russell, never had an offensive season that would come close to making that chart. But he– and importantly, his teams– played defense.
So did Jordan’s Bulls, at least during the championship years. And Jordan himself was always a premier defender.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
KC: StevieG? Seriously, StevieG?
Thierry Henry ought to rank then — he scored a ton of goals for Arsenal, but he was always near the top of the assist charts too (and many of those were unselfish lay-offs where he had a decent shot at scoring). He led the premier league in goals with 25 (2d was 21) in 2004-05 and was second in assists (15 to Lamps’ 16): http://soccernet.espn.go.com/stats/topassists?league=eng.1&year=2004&seasontype=1&cc=5901
And I think we have to agree that Thierry is a little more physically gifted than Gerrard — who certainly is a great player, terrific work ethic, and very team-oriented, etc, etc. But come on. No way should StevieG be used in the same sentence as LBJ. (Unless noting that LBJ, like StevieG, has not won a league title)
March 24th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
I did not realize that this was a sport site. I will erase my bookmark.
Whitepup
March 24th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
I did not realize that this was a sport site. I will erase my bookmark.
Whitepup
March 24th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
March 24th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Sorry, messed up the tag. But still.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Thierry in his prime was untouchable , and his pace I don’t have words for.I hope he buries Bayern, and then we will have a matchup. At Anfield and Nou Camp.
AI just you wait boy for April 8th. You shall be shellacked. Nothing against Lampard, I think he has tremendous grace(scored once after burying his mother and doesn’t cry like the million dollar wannabies or whine like his uncle ‘Arry) and is a wonderful clutch player(off on the pace, though, and where was he last Sat against the Spurs). Christ he was a ghost.
StevieG put all of us on his back and won us Europe. And this year both LBJ and StevieG will have championships in common.
Assists will go up when we snatch Eto’o and Barry next season. He is a demonic passer is StevieG this season, and has been injured for the most part of it. Remember that unselfish play where he and Nando were in front of the goal and he passed it to him. I mean what do you call that.
But am an Henry fan from his Higbury days. So I shall not slam him. StevieG on current form is just as good a passer and a better clutch player(Gunners lost to Barca in the finals, rem? And Henry was a ghost of himself.)
March 24th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Both Gerrard and Henry stepped up massively during the last World Cup. SG at times was the only bright light on his side.
“You’ll never walk alone…”
March 24th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
PER definitely has some arbitrary components to it so it seems a little silly to focus on small differences in PER, but I think it is a good baseline figure. +/- is an interesting stat that has obvious limitations, such as the crappy backup effect, but LBJ’s raw +/- this year is ridiculous: Net +23.4. The Cavs are +13.8 with him on the floor and -9.6 with him off the floor. To put that into perspective, the worst team in the league (the Clippers, natch) is getting outscored by 8.6 pts a game. Dwyane Wade, who is also having an amazing year, is at +16.5, while Kobe is +11.2. Now, again, I don’t think raw +/- is by any means a perfect measure of a player. But, it is pretty clear that LeBron has been playing incredible team ball this season.
I don’t think there is any +/- data going back to Jordan’s peak Chicago years, so we can’t compare LBJ to Jordan with that metric, unfortunately.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
Anyone crunched the numbers to see what happens to star players just before free agency, and just after they sign deals as free agents?
(Lampard? Really? Really? Then again, Gerrard looks good because he’s in a shocking squad that plays constipated football, and the Arsenal 2004 squad makes the current one look atriocious. It has been a shocking Premier League season, and the prospect of the entire ‘Big’ ‘Four’ making it to the semis is a disturbing indictment of continental football.)
March 24th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Nate, just come out and say it; PER sucks.
For catchall statistics, I think Dean Oliver’s field-perecentage derived numbers (oRTG and dRTG) are better, although they’re a bitch to calculate (much like the baseball metrics provided by your old employer!). Jason Kubatko (basketball-reference) takes the Oliver numbers one step further to generate win shares. I’m sure you knew all this alredy.
Interestingly, if you project Lebron’s win shares over 82 games this sesaon, he comes up just a hair short of Jordan’s 87-88 (and his 95-96). Close enough to call it even, I would say.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:38 pm
Freudian slip; meant Matt. I’m reading Silver’s mortgage entry in another tab.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Re:AI Like last year?
John Arne Riise has been shipped to Roma:)
And though he stuck a dagger in my heart , I did well up for FrankieL , all things considered.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
just come out and say it; PER sucks.
I dunno. At the top levels, it seems to match my intuition pretty well.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
I think these pace normalizations are somewhat bogus as well.
A few weeks ago Henry Abott linked to someone was talkign about how Oscar Robertson’s triple dozen season was at a much faster pace so if you adjust Lebron’s numbers to the same pace he is at a triple double too.
But I don’t think you can argue that a guy could automatically put up the same stats at a faster pace, maybe the slower pace allows Lebron to get more assists per psosession becasue he takes time on offense, put him in a shoot the first good shot offense like they played in Oscar’s day and his assists go down.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Pseudonymous, we may not have the depth of teams that outspend us by a 100 mil, but “shocking squad”? Mascherano, Alonso, Kuyt, Benayoun, Riera , Aurelio, Reina are all world class. Nando and StevieG are in their own class. Our first team is nothing to scoff about mate. Babel is not bad, we just need a better bench than El Zhar and N’Gog and that stupid Lucas(God bless his soul).
If Gillett sells we shall have a deep bench too.
Also if constipated football brings 13 goals against Real, ManYoo and Villa am all for it:)
En Rafa Confiamos
YNWA
Someone made a nice analysis of +/-. Watch the games and you’ll see those stats come to life.
Shoals from Free Darko expresses it best:
“What makes James James? His uncanny combination of size and speed, which has gotten even more inexorable in the open court, off the dribble, or anywhere around the paint; the emergent defensive nightmare he’s become; his court vision, which insistently delivers the ball to whichever Cav happens to be closest to the basket; a nose for rebounds that comes with just understanding the action better than anyone else. All some combination of peak basketball IQ and/or outlandish physical gifts, traits he’s applied more seamlessly, and synthesized with greater ease, as he’s matured.”
March 24th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
In my enthusiasm I missed Jamie Carragher–>the best centre back on current form on English soil.
March 24th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
prospect of the entire ‘Big’ ‘Four’ making it to the semis is a disturbing indictment of continental football
Pseudonymous are you related to Michel Platini in any way or is there some French lineage that runs through your family tree?
Entire Big Four won’t make the Semis(as delectable as it sounds). The Blues and The Reds collide in the quarters (for the fifth straight time, which makes me wonder if the draws are rigged).
March 24th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
In particular, it would only take a small improvement in his 3 point percentage to turn this into an efficient shot, at which point all bets would be off in terms of defending him.
I’m consistently annoyed when people say stuff like this in sports. “If Star A dramatically improves attribute/skill X, he’ll be the best ever!”
March 24th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
You have got to be kidding about that halfwit clown Gerrard.
March 24th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
diego, i can understand (not agree with, mind you, but understand) why people would prefer lampard over gerrard, but to call him a halfwit clown suggests you don’t know much about soccer.
KC, the tricky thing about henry’s assists (and i loved henry in his prime) is that a rebound off a free kick is regarded as an assist for the free kicker, which is certainly where some of henry’s assists came from. (my own take on henry is that wenger built his team to feature henry, so there was nothing selfish about henry being the leading shot-taker and scorer, but i don’t know that i would say that henry was unselfish, nor that you even want your striker to be unselfish: the great scoring strikers of my years of watching soccer, from gerd muller in the ’70s to ruud van nistelroy in the ’00s, were mercilessly selfish).
but i digress: the topic here is james. i personally don’t knokw or care whether his season is as good as oscar’s or michael’s or what have you: i don’t think it means much to even discuss things in those terms, since it is, after all, a team game.
and that’s how we can really evaluate lebron: you could stick a lot of very good players in place of lebron and the cavs wouldn’t have close to their current record. in my book, lebron is only a couple years away from joining russell, bird, magic, and earvin on my all-time top 5 squad….
March 24th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
As commenters above said, it’s silly to normalize all stats to an imputed equal pace and equal MPG. These players are humans. They’re not robots. Maybe LeBron couldn’t maintain his amazing combination of speed and strength if he played more possessions per minute, and/or more minutes.
Also, it’s hilarious how Hollinger talks as though his PER is some kind of holy writ, received on tablets by Moses. It’s just a formula he invited that creates a linear combination of various statistics, with somewhat arbitrary weights. I’m sure if we perturbed the formula a bit, we could show that Dwyane Wade is having the greatest season of any player, all-time. Or we could construct a formula that shows that Joel Przybilla is having the best season ever!
Obviously I’m begging the question, i.e. I’m assuming that Hollinger’s formula is not an optimal way to capture player performance. I’ve never seen much literature from him where he attempts to justify his formula, nor does he admit of any potential weakness in his regular writing about PER.
March 24th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
So did Jordan’s Bulls, at least during the championship years. And Jordan himself was always a premier defender.
Well, Jordan was a great one-on-one defender, but it was only when Jackson got him that he learned to play team defense.
Those teams won their championships on defense, and the defense was comprised of a lot more than just Jordan. People get so bowled over by Jordan’s scoring that they forget that.
March 24th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
#31 Diego: This is not the NFL. StevieG is the very model of a modern pro(recent charges of affray have slightly taken from that solid image).His family shed blood for Liverpool(His cousin died in the Hillsborough disaster). He does more for charity and development of Merseyside(with Kenny Daglish) than almost any person and is more accessible than anyone of his stature(visits local Pubs/sells his cars below value on AutoTrade). He is a member of the Order of British Empire(OBE) for his efforts and skills.
In short he is what you would know as Larry Fitzgerald only much much more talented on the pitch.
Please go back to Deadspin. I am sure they love you on them boards, mate.
March 24th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Nods to howard(#32). In three years we shall have three championships and King James would have solidly established the Cavs Dynasty.
Yeah its a tricky comparison between strikers and midfielders. Strikers should be poachers(Ruud Vaan, Ronaldo–the original one). StevieG is just so much a team player(like LBJ he is a local lad and feels for the club, unlike, say, many). Recently he said that he only wants to win the Premier League if it is with Liverpool.
I only wish LBJ said something in the same vein:)
March 24th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
Dilan,
Pippen on D was amazing.
Rememeber when Portland made that big comeback vs the Lakers in the Western COnference finals to ultimately lose game 7 after collapsing in the 4th quarter?
In the games they won to come back Pippen compleetely dominated the entire games from the Defense. He was incredible. They played a sort of box and 1 with 4 guys more or less zoned up and Pippen just basically freelancing to shut down whoever he felt needed to be shut down at the time, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it at any level.
March 24th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
# Eric k Says:
March 24th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
I think these pace normalizations are somewhat bogus as well.
A few weeks ago Henry Abott linked to someone was talkign about how Oscar Robertson’s triple dozen season was at a much faster pace so if you adjust Lebron’s numbers to the same pace he is at a triple double too.
But I don’t think you can argue that a guy could automatically put up the same stats at a faster pace, maybe the slower pace allows Lebron to get more assists per psosession becasue he takes time on offense, put him in a shoot the first good shot offense like they played in Oscar’s day and his assists go down.
Teams playing at a faster pace have an advantage on offensive efficiency. Look at the teams that play fast of recent vintage: Suns/Knicks/Warriors/Mavs have all done it at one point or another and are more efficient when they do.
So no, I don’t think your point is valid. It is just as likely that the offense gains an advantage by looking for its shot early and not allowing the defense to set.
March 24th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
“I’ve never seen much literature from him where he attempts to justify his formula, nor does he admit of any potential weakness in his regular writing about PER.”
Then you should check Hollinger old site http://www.alleyoop.com and the Aprmetrics forum. Hollinger has discussed the PER formula quite extensively, and there has been a lot of discussion about the weights. They are not as arbitrary as you think and in fact Offensive PER (a PER without defensive stats) correlates quite highly with teams’s offensive efficiency.
March 24th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
Pseudonymous are you related to Michel Platini in any way or is there some French lineage that runs through your family tree?
Ah, no. And I did miss the QF draw. But in all honesty, this has been a rubbish season, and the idea that the top teams might be that much better than their continental counterparts, at least on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, shouldn’t be anything to to celebrate.
(How many points have Liverpool dropped at home this season? 1-1 against Man City; 2-2 against Hull; 0-0s against West Ham and Fulham. It’s all very well playing champagne football in March, but it’s been a sputtering season with a manager who represents nothing of the Anfield tradition.)
And I urge you to subscribe to the BBC’s 606 podcast, but only for Tuesday nights with Danny Baker.
March 24th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
Just to point out, LeBron’s 3 point shot has improved markedly the last two months. 40% in Feb and 37% in March, while shooting more per game.
March 24th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
I am a subscriber , and on the boards, and Baker is not bad.
Barca(and Real) and Bayern and Inter have dropped games against far lesser teams.I won’t bore you with the list. Olympique have won 8 titles in a row and never done well in Europe(go figure?)English football is the best on the continent, for whatever reasons one may conjure.
Rafa plays tactical footie that might be too high minded for lower level EPL teams. In 2 of those draws stupid Lucas gave away penalties. In almost all of them we dominated, most notably against Stoke, but unlike ManYoo results didn’t fall our way.
We shall play more often in an open style if we have more depth and a manager who is so committed to Anfield and a tactical genius is not bad to have. Your viewpoint is subscribed to by a few Scousers . What would football be without disagreements:)
As for me: En Rafa Confiamos.
March 24th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
“Look at shooting efficiency—Jordan had a TS% of 60.3 in the 1988 season, James’ is 58.6; indeed, in the 1989 season Jordan got all the way up to 61.4 and I would say arguably that was a better season than his top PER year as his rebound rate was higher then too.”
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordami01.html
In 88-89, his blocks were down, his turnovers were up, and his usage was down slightly. That offset the other improvements in a way that’s basically statistically identical to the season before (and even the ones after).
March 24th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
lfv,
That is a circular argument though, do those teams have better offensive efficiency because they play at a faster pace or are they able to play at a faster pace because they have so much offensive efficiency? It isn’t like every team could all of a sudden play Dantoni ball, they players have to have the right skill set for it.
How well Steve Nash or Nate Robinson plays at that pace tells us nothing about whether Lebron is capable of playing at that pace at the same level of performance he is able to play it now.
March 24th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
According the newspapers I get, D. Wade is having one of the best seasons ever. But they can’t compare to the Big O, eh?
March 24th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
eric k Says:
March 24th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
lfv,
That is a circular argument though, do those teams have better offensive efficiency because they play at a faster pace or are they able to play at a faster pace because they have so much offensive efficiency? It isn’t like every team could all of a sudden play Dantoni ball, they players have to have the right skill set for it.
How well Steve Nash or Nate Robinson plays at that pace tells us nothing about whether Lebron is capable of playing at that pace at the same level of performance he is able to play it now.
That’s true. But your hypothesis has no support of even that quality. Do you really think the best physical specimen in the history of the NBA could not play at a fast pace?
Chris Duhon is more capable of elevating his play for Mike D’Antoni than LeBron James? Really?
March 24th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
Pippen on D was amazing. Rememeber when Portland made that big comeback vs the Lakers in the Western COnference finals to ultimately lose game 7 after collapsing in the 4th quarter? In the games they won to come back Pippen compleetely dominated the entire games from the Defense. He was incredible. They played a sort of box and 1 with 4 guys more or less zoned up and Pippen just basically freelancing to shut down whoever he felt needed to be shut down at the time, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it at any level.
I remember that one. I also remember Pippen guarding Magic Johnson in the 1991 Finals. In theory, Magic had a size and speed advantage, but Pippen was just incredible.
It astounds me that people can look at a formula combining various offensive statistics and use it to make declarations of who the “greatest ever” is. Defense is not only 50 percent of the game, it’s the more important 50 percent.
March 24th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
Per Season PER Leaders It seems like a pretty credible list to me. I’m not seeing any obvious errors. That doesn’t mean it’s very good across years, or even at distinguishing between the best and second best player in a single year. But it doesn’t seem to yield crazy results.
March 24th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
I like how all the self appointed soccer experts decide to lecture me about Gerrard, the tofu of fine players. The best being the guy who piously prattles on about the personal virtue of the guy who beat a random DJ unconscious earlier this year for no reason.
March 24th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
Diego:Stop reading THE SUN. No newspaper or report says he beat the man unconscious. He was part of the scuffle is as far as they go. And by the way charges were dropped to affray.
Don’t be judge and jury and if you are a bitter Manc go rant somewhere else. StevieG is all I said he was in my post and if you want you can put facts to disprove any of my statements.
No one is pretending to be an expert. They are just trying to be civil, a concept seemingly alien to you.
March 25th, 2009 at 4:44 am
Defense is not only 50 percent of the game, it’s the more important 50 percent.
This is a stupid comment, especially for basketball. How can it be more important? You’d have to argue that defensive performances varied more than offensive ones. Given the level of intensity in playoff basketball, I just don’t think that’s true. Offense performance in basketball also has the advantage of being far more knowable. If I am a GM, I have to place higher emphasis on offense, just because I have much better tools for evaluating a player’s performance. Same for fans debating, who is better? You get lots of people talking about how great Russell was, and the hilarious thing is, most of them have never watched him play. What kind of joke is that?
March 25th, 2009 at 5:13 am
From the Useless Trivia Department:
Gerrard is the only player ever who has scored in an FA Cup final, a League Cup final, a European Cup final, and a UEFA Cup final.
Not bad for a midfielder.
(MY should post about soccer sometimes, so his basketball posts don’t get hijacked like this
)
March 25th, 2009 at 8:36 am
For everyone talking about MJ’s D, Michael wasn’t just MVP, he was the Defensive Player of the Year in 1988.
March 25th, 2009 at 9:08 am
Aye , aye Thlayli. StevieG is just that awesome:)
I think MY is under the illusion that he is more of a man if he skips “real football” for “American football”. He is fallen in the trap of the exclusive fan who has to trash/put down one sport to like the other(s).
Someone should tell him that the biggest Jewish soprts star,currently, is Yossi Benayoun(skipper of the Israeli team), and we Kopites love him to death.
Glory,Glory Anfield.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:58 am
It’s not a question of whether he could play at that pace, it’s whether he could play with the same PER at the same pace. LBJ would likely be one of the 3 best players in the NBA today at D’antoni’s pace, but would he be historically good? Usain Bolt is the fastest man in the world at 100 meters, it doesn’t mean he’s the fastest man in the world at 400. He’d probably whup anyone posting here, but that’s not the question.
March 25th, 2009 at 11:28 am
# Mo Says:
March 25th, 2009 at 10:58 am
That’s true. But your hypothesis has no support of even that quality. Do you really think the best physical specimen in the history of the NBA could not play at a fast pace?
It’s not a question of whether he could play at that pace, it’s whether he could play with the same PER at the same pace. LBJ would likely be one of the 3 best players in the NBA today at D’antoni’s pace, but would he be historically good? Usain Bolt is the fastest man in the world at 100 meters, it doesn’t mean he’s the fastest man in the world at 400. He’d probably whup anyone posting here, but that’s not the question.
The point is that nearly everyone who plays in one of these systems becomes a more effective offensive player. Why would LeBron James be different? There is absolutely no reason to believe that. Sure, it COULD be true. It could also be true, and seems more likely, that he would be more efficient. Or, he would most likely be EQUALLY as efficient.
March 25th, 2009 at 11:31 am
Oh, and Mo, your comment about Bolt is funny. He actually started off as a 200m and 400m guy and broke all sorts of records in the 400m before deciding he wanted to sprint instead (against the will of his coaches). He has said he aims to break the 400m world record in 2010 =)
March 25th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Mpowell:
NBA history is littered with effective offensive teams (think of the current suns) and players (think dominique wilkins) who didn’t win because the wasn’t good enough. Indeed Jordan and the Bulls kept on losing in the playoffs to the pistons (no Jordan, but much better defense) until Phil came in and installed a tough defense that allowed less than 90 points a game.
The russell celtics, of course, were always beating teams with better offenses and better offensive players.
You sort of give it away when you say that offense is easier to measure. But easy to measure does not equal more important.
Keith:
Don’t confuse media awards with actuial achievement. The bulls as a team were giving up tons of points until phil came in.
March 25th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Bill Russell, career PER 18.9
Al Jefferson, career PER 20.6
March 25th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
This is from a basketball neophyte, but why would you want to include rebounds as part of a guard’s overall score? Sure, rebounds are great all other things constant, but do you really want guards to be crashing the boards instead of releasing on the shot to either execute a fast break or to stop the other team from doing so?
And do guard rebounding rates show rebounding skill or is it just statistical noise? What guards are really good at rebounding and why?
March 25th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Dilan,
I’m not giving anything away. That is simply another very strong argument in favor of the value of offense. There are some great examples of defensive teams that couldn’t get it done also. The Cavs got destroyed by the Spurs two years ago because they were all defense and no offense. The Knicks of the late 90s had a similar problem.
NBA history is littered with effective offensive teams (think of the current suns) and players (think dominique wilkins) who didn’t win because the wasn’t good enough.
This idea is just silly, because it’s just as true of effective defensive teams. Of course you need to be pretty good at both to win a title. To make your claim stick you have to show that teams that rank higher on the defensive side have a better shot than those that rank higher on the offensive side. While this is true of the Celtics and Pistons, it is not true of the Lakers, Heat or even some of the Spurs title winners. And it certainly isn’t true of most of the winners in the 80s. I don’t know about the Bulls, but this is the kind of result you need to prove.
March 25th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
59: Doesn’t PER take into account blocks, which weren’t tracked with Russell?
March 25th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
PER does account for blocks, but Hollinger uses a different formula for the pre-merger NBA. Dean Oliver’s metrics simply doesn’t measure the statistics from those days, which is a poor substitute, but at least it’s consistent.
Basically, PER overweights players with high usage rates (like Allen Iverson) and underrates defenders, rebounders, and offensive efficiency.
As for the great offense/great defense arguments:
Generally NBA champions are good at both (or extremely good at one end). For example, last year’s Celtics and the twin towers editions of the Spurs were historically great defensively, and decent (top 10) offensively. On the other hand, most of the Kobe/Shaq teams were great offenses with solid defenses.
Every once in a while, a team like the Pistons makes it on the strength of one asset alone (their defense). But those are the exception, rather than the rule.
March 25th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Nobody says offense doesn’t matter. But even the guy many consider the greatest offensive player ever, Jordan, could not even get to the finals during his prime offensive seasons. He only started winning titles when the defense improved.
Meanwhile, the best defensive player in history won 11 titles with shifting offensive personnel and against some deadly offensive players and teams.
Peopke like offense. It is more fun to watch. It is easier to measure. It is easier to learn. It gets players the sports center highlights and big salaries.
But the games are won on the other end of the court.
April 1st, 2009 at 3:03 am
Very nice post, I share the same position about this.
April 9th, 2009 at 2:27 am
Hi, I can
April 9th, 2009 at 2:29 am
Thx! very helpful post!
April 9th, 2009 at 2:31 am
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April 16th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
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Thank you very much
. Maurice.