German Politics
There’s an easy story you can tell about deficits in American politics. Basically, the way it goes is that tax cuts produce a positive short-term response from those who get them. And spending hikes also produce a positive short-term response from those who get the spending directly or the services provided indirectly. Deficits, meanwhile, have their impact over the medium term and don’t directly target anyone’s interests. Hence the tendency is for deficits to drift up and up until you’re on the verge of collapse in the bond market, at which point “avoid short-term collapse” becomes an important constraint on politicians. And if you look at, say, Italy you’ll see that a similar story seems to be in effect. And these appear to be pretty simple facts of political life grounded in basic elements of human nature. But consider the case of Germany, which has provided a pretty large fiscal stimulus by continental European standards, but which most American observers want to do more. Look at the political incentives facing Angela Merkel:
Unlike Mr. Sarkozy, who has three more years to his term, Mrs. Merkel finds herself in a difficult position, facing elections in September with voters leery of fiscal profligacy. Her Christian Democrats have been sinking in the polls, with the pro-business Free Democrats eating away at their support.
I keep hearing this. In part, Merkel is constrained by policy considerations that she deems compelling. But in part she’s constrained by a German political logic in which the voters would, apparently, prefer to see unemployment skyrocket as economic problems abroad cause Germany’s export-oriented economy to collapse than to see large budget deficits. She is, I’m reliably told, actually paying a political price for having done as much stimulusing as she has. But no matter how many times I read that, I find it difficult to imagine a political culture that operates that way.
In principle, my understanding is that Germany’s heavily regulated retail sector means you could actually find ways to stimulate domestic consumption and demand without necessarily spending more money. But changing those policies has been a hardy perennial of “things non-Germans think Germany should do” and the German people themselves don’t seem very enthusiastic about the idea.
52 Responses to “German Politics”
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March 31st, 2009 at 12:30 pm
They did have a difficult experience with hyperinflation, you know.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Even more compelling than the fairly distant hyper-inflation of the Weimar era is the myth–not in a negative sense–of Ludwig Erhard’s pro-market reforms that got the German economy moving after WWII. Couple that with the strength of the D-Mark as something a German could be proud of in an era when most expressions of patriotism or nationalism were frowned on, and you get a pretty far-reaching consensus for Social (actually Christian) Democracy, free markets, low public debt, and low inflation.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:42 pm
The big difference between European thinking and us is the extistance of the safety net. High unemployment isn’t as catastropic as here – everyone still retains medical coverage and a dignified standard of living that doesn’t exist here when there is high unemployment.
It’s not the most optimum of outcomes – but I don’t think that high unemployment is viewed as having the same electoral consequences as does here – I think we need to go a little more towards the extra mile to understand the Europeans attitudes toward this – it’s very different from ours.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:46 pm
The Germans have this strange concept of believing that HyperInflation is bad. They also seem to think dumping unprecedented amounts of money into the market could cause this HyperInflation thingy. That has only been shown to be true about 95% of the time. Does anyone really believe putting more money into the market causes inflation? Those crazy Germans and their crazy German Ideals. Like they know more about HyperInflation then America… pfff.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:50 pm
That’s true Andy. The view in Germany of the US is that it needs to make superhuman efforts to stop a recession because it doesn’t have a social safety net.
Also, I should add, that Germans see the fact that their society is aging as another reason to save and not aquire more debt, though I would argue that is reason that is attached onto the idea I mentioned above, which to my mind explains why this is the instinctive reaction across much of the political spectrum. Keynes is a dirty word in Germany.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:58 pm
matt – check out Canadian political culture sometime. in 1994, there was a conversion of the body politic that deficits are bad. A politician bringing in a deficit could expect to be chastised at the polls. Luckily, the unique nature of this economic problem has allowed stiulus here, but the politicians have to promise (and sort of mean it) that they will be back in surplus within a few years.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:03 pm
I agree with Rich, David and Nitch that this is possibly something to do with the German experience of hyper-inflation. Though I don’t think that putting more money into the economy leads to hyper-inflation. I didn’t see the US dot-com or housing bubbles, which led to way more money in the economy by any decent measure of money, leading to hyper-inflation.
But I also wanted to throw out one other possibility. (Disclaimer: I have no idea whether this really is what’s going on in Germany, but it is one mechanism through which voters complain about deficits.)
In Australia, most mortgages are variable rate. And unlike American variable rate mortgages, rates can vary frequently, an a lot. One thing that pushes interest rates up is high deficits. The effect of this is that for a lot of people, a tax rise will make them directly and immediately better off, because it will lead to a cut in their mortgage payment larger than the tax change. The effect has been a very strong political pressure for balanced budgets, which has only recently been outweighed by the badness of the economic times.
If many Germans have variable rate mortgages, and in general are sensitive to interest rate shifts in a way that Americans, typically, are not, then they will feel short-term pain from expansionary budget activities.
Now as I said, I don’t know enough about Germany to know whether it is true here. But I don’t think Matt’s right to think that the forces that produce massive deficits in the US are applicable in all similar countries.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:07 pm
The effect has been a very strong political pressure for balanced budgets, which has only recently been outweighed by the badness of the economic times.
This is something we ought to emulate in the States.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Interesting discussion.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:09 pm
I’m not sure which heavy retail regulations Matt is talking about liberalizing. Store hours were already liberalized a few years back.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Here’s something I’d like someone who knows more than me to answer:
I lived in Germany 2004-2008 and I wonder what they’re supposed to spend stimulus money on. The highway system seems very well-maintained (certainly compared to France or Italy), the railroads are great, the unemployed have great benefits, and the health care is terrific (my daughter was born in a German hospital so I speak from experience. What does a hypothetical German stimulus fund?
March 31st, 2009 at 1:10 pm
It’s also important to keep in mind that the German economy is heavily weighted with exports. You can’t rev up an export economy by giving consumers more money.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:12 pm
The central fallacy here is that the purpose of the spending is “stimulus” it’s not. The purpose of the vast majority of the spending is bailing out the dozen or so failed banks who are bust but who also own the politicians. The non financial spending is purely for political cover to ensure that the looting continues.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:13 pm
I guess there’s a concern that strong deficits will ultimately force a dismantling of the currently existing, relatively generous welfare state (especially given the rapidly aging population). And many Germans fear losing that element of security more than the hardship of a prolonged recession. In other words, the politics of the crisis plays out very differently in Germany.
Also, the prevailing culture in Germany is very much that as a private person you don’t spend money you don’t have, never, ever. I never bought anything on credit, and my parents and grandparents sure as hell didn’t either. Most Germans don’t even have credit cards. I suppose if taking on debt is considered normal as a private practice, as in the US, you’d have more tolerance for the state doing the same, psychologically speaking. But in Germany the psychological mechanism goes the other way.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:14 pm
I also think we can change policy in Europe by collectively pointing and laughing at their tiny stimulus packages.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:17 pm
This [a very strong political pressure for balanced budgets] is something we ought to emulate in the States.
Any conservatives making this argument, who did not utter unequivocal and consistent condemnation of George W. Bush’s non-stimulative fiscal irresponsibility, are hereby invited to shut their pie holes.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:19 pm
“High unemployment isn’t as catastropic as here – everyone still retains medical coverage and a dignified standard of living that doesn’t exist here when there is high unemployment.”
Over the short term, yes, that’s perhaps true. But over the long term, getting unemployed in a layoff is actually probably much worse for individual Germans than for Americans – German companies do not (generally) like to hire experienced workers, they prefer to train workers themselves over very long periods of time. American companies don’t view it (too) negatively if a potential employee had been laid off in his past; but German firms often do.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Brian, Germany has relatively low levels of home ownership and thus fewer mortgages than, say the US or Britain. Also, typically German mortgages require a much higher deposit than American loans do, up to 20% of the full value–and I think they tend to be fixed-rate, but if someone knows differently let me know. So I think your variable rate mortgage thesis is probably not too relevant to the German case.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:21 pm
“I suppose if taking on debt is considered normal as a private practice, as in the US, you’d have more tolerance for the state doing the same, psychologically speaking. But in Germany the psychological mechanism goes the other way.”
I can certainly understand not having credit cards and maybe even buying all your cars with cash, but do Germans really not regularly take on debt to purchase a house?
March 31st, 2009 at 1:29 pm
NS in NOVA spricht die Wahrheit. What exactly is Germany supposed to stimulate? They already spent most of the 90s stimulating East Germany, with mixed results. But by American standards Germany is and has been on a “stimulus” footing for years. And spurring greater consumption won’t work either, even ignoring the very real cultural aversion to personal debt that gr talks about, Germans just don’t have room for lots more crap. Most Germans live in apartments or small houses. Where would they put the Foreman grill, the Air Hockey table, the new bikes, the snowboards and the 52″ plasma TV? You need physical space, or lots of planned obsolescence, to keep people consuming at levels that keep the economy growing, which is why economic “growth” is such a flawed metric. I own a 2000 sq ft house with a yard and I’m already maxed out on space. Maybe part of the current recession is caused by middle and upper middle class Americans simply deciding they just don’t need anymore stuff.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:32 pm
My impression that the stimulus question in Europe has more to do with asking Germany to pour money into Greece, Lithuania, Portugal, etc. than with asking Germany to spend money domestically. Germany are understandably reticent to do that.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:33 pm
There has been very little stomach for fiscal spending in the U.S. since what, Nixon? Johnson? What changed here is that central bank interest rates went to zero. ECB rates are not at zero. In fact, the ECB has no mandate for full employment; so fiscal stimulus could be counter-productive if it causes the ECB to raise rates.
You are correct that the political calculus does not make sense, if Germany had the U.S. Fed. But they don’t.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Adam,
I was overdrawing a bit. Of course, people take out mortgages to buy houses. But as David points out, the lending standards are very conservative. Also, people don’t usually buy houses with the intention of reselling them at a higher price or to ‘take out money’ by refinancing. Buying (or building) a house is often looked on as a once-in-a-lifetime affair.
It is not unheard of either for people to buy a car on credit, but in my extended family that would be looked on as very shady behavior. And I assume that’s not an uncommon attitude.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:40 pm
I can certainly understand not having credit cards and maybe even buying all your cars with cash, but do Germans really not regularly take on debt to purchase a house?
No, because the majority of Germans rent their houses or apartments, they do not own. Since German law provides more protection for renters than in the US, a German renter can have some of the benefits of homeownership, i.e. stability, without having the large capital outlay.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:41 pm
And spurring greater consumption won’t work either, even ignoring the very real cultural aversion to personal debt that gr talks about, Germans just don’t have room for lots more crap. Most Germans live in apartments or small houses. Where would they put the Foreman grill, the Air Hockey table, the new bikes, the snowboards and the 52″ plasma TV? You need physical space, or lots of planned obsolescence, to keep people consuming at levels that keep the economy growing, which is why economic “growth” is such a flawed metric. I own a 2000 sq ft house with a yard and I’m already maxed out on space. Maybe part of the current recession is caused by middle and upper middle class Americans simply deciding they just don’t need anymore stuff.
With anti-sprawl German zoning policies and a commitment to maintain green space, Germany can’t also engage in the artifical stimulus of unchecked suburban sprawl as in the US.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Writing from Berlin, just a few notes. I may be wrong, but I believe that in the wake of re-unification, the Federal Republic went into deficit spending for the first time ever. At any rate, many people certainly talked about it that way at the time. Germans have gotten away without running up public debt, or at least not much of it, for a very long time, and they don’t like it at all.
Also, Germans are fiercely proud of their generous welfare state — as someone mentioned above, it’s a matter of acceptable national pride, a touchy matter for a people who have had spectacularly bad experiences with inappropriate national pride. One of their worst nightmares is to reduce social services so that Germany becomes similar the US (I hear that a lot). During hard economic times, there have been many calls for austerity, mostly from outside of Germany, so as to make labor less expensive. But their decision has been, yes indeed, that they’d really rather have high unemployment, tempered by the safety net, than give up social benefits.
So it wouldn’t be out of character for Germans to resist high stimulus spending even at the cost of high unemployment.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Any conservatives making this argument, who did not utter unequivocal and consistent condemnation of George W. Bush’s non-stimulative fiscal irresponsibility, are hereby invited to shut their pie holes.
Oh please! If my wife charges a $500 dress on the credit card and I don’t complain, does that mean I don’t have the right to complain when she charges 10 $500 dresses?
March 31st, 2009 at 2:22 pm
If my wife charges a $500 dress on the credit card and I don’t complain, does that mean I don’t have the right to complain when she charges 10 $500 dresses?
More like you and your wife threw a massive $5,000 party, and now you are complaining about spending another $5,000 to clean up the mess.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:33 pm
An Israeli Citizen
A Letter to Charlotte Kates – Pro-terrorist Law Student at Rutgers University
The following letter was written to the President of Rutgers State University by an Israeli citizen after reading Kates’ published comments on the Israeli/Palestinian situation !!
Dear Ms. Kates,
I think you are a remarkable woman. You are neither an Arab nor a Jew, you do not study the Middle East, or any associated subject, and correct me if I am wrong, you have never visited this region. Therefore I am somewhat astounded at your expertise and to your comments on Israel being an “Apartheid” state.
I have lived in Israel for many years and I would be delighted to take you on a little virtual tour of our country. Let me first give you a couple of minor points. Israel occupies 0.1% of the landmass of the Middle East and it is the only Jewish state, not only in this region, surrounded as we are by 22 Arab states, but in the world.
Let us begin your virtual tour!!
You have already been through immigration at Tel Aviv Airport with your boyfriend, whom we shall call Ken. You will have filled out a visitors form. This form will not ask you, as it will in many of the countries that surround us, what is your religion, and it will certainly not ask you, as they do in Saudi Arabia, for a “certificate of religion”.
The day is Sunday! You will want to attend a church service. No problem in the Apartheid State of Israel. We tolerate and freely allow worship for all religions. This is more than can be said for nearly all of the surrounding 22 Arab nations. In fact many of them would not even have a single church, let alone a synagogue.
After a lovely service you and Ken would head for a leisurely lunch, maybe at one of the lovely beachfront restaurants in Tel Aviv. You would most likely have returned to your hotel and put on a very casual outfit, as fitting the very hot Israeli summers. This could be a pair of shorts and a tight fitting skimpy t-shirt. No problem in the Apartheid state of Israel. In Israel we allow freedom of dress, especially for women, who are not made to wear bulky long robes, a veil to cover their face, and, wouldn’t it be a pity if you had to cover that lovely coiffed hairdo, as you would probably have to in most of the surrounding 22 Arab states.
During lunch Ken could gaze lovingly into your heavily painted eyes, complete with a good application of black mascara. He would be free to lean across and kiss your lips, finely painted with lip liner, 2 shades of burgundy lipstick and gloss. People would probably think you were in love, especially as Ken has proudly displayed a good wine on the table. Public displays of affection and consuming alcohol in the Apartheid state of Israel is nothing unusual and its not even scorned upon. That’s more than can be said for most of the surrounding 22 Arab states, where your glossy lips would be considered whorish and alcohol is forbidden. But, Ken being a little flirtatious pinched one of the young waitresses while you went to reapply your lipstick. It was harmless and luckily for the young girl in the Apartheid State of Israel, her father and 6 brothers will not take her to the family pool in the evening and drown her, as they would in some of the surrounding 22 Arab states.
After lunch you and Ken drive around. You are even allowed to drive. It is not forbidden in Israel. You stumble across a kindergarten. The children are running around and enjoying themselves. They are not made to sit for hours reciting by rote, pages from religious books. Their games are in the sand pit or on the swings. They are not infested with hate or told the only honor to their lives will be in death. In the Apartheid state of Israel we rejoice in life and living. We do not promote murder and violence by brainwashing our children with hatred, as they do in many of the surrounding 22 Arab states.
By the end of the day you and Ken come across a political rally. Many thousands have turned up. In the Apartheid State of Israel, all the citizens, men, women, Jew, Arab and Christian are free to vote. We are allowed to openly criticize the government and our media, including the T.V. and newspapers, offer, without prejudice, a choice of opinions. Every person has the right to openly agree or condemn the government. This can certainly not be said for most of the surrounding 22 Arab states, ruled as they are by oppressive dictators, where any dissent is met with dire consequences.
Of course, most of the 22 surrounding Arab countries can’t offer you a good old-fashioned homicide bombing as a tourist attraction. This can only happen in the apartheid state of Israel, surrounded as we are, by so many hostile countries, determined, as you are to wipe us of the face of the earth. Where else can you get on a crowded bus, often packed with children and come face to face with some poor, plighted Palestinian ghoul who thinks life isn’t very jolly, having been fed and brainwashed by evil organizations like Hamas, to believe that the only way forward is to murder innocent people. This dehumanized creature will have been fed on a 24/7 diet of lies and hate incitement, he will have been coaxed with the reward of 72 vestal virgins waiting for him in Paradise. His demonic mother will be dancing in the street waving her $10,000 check.
While Israelis are scraping their dead children off the sidewalks, the Palestinians will be lighting fireworks and dancing in the street, to honor this mass murderer as a hero, often to their children who are being systematically nurtured to be the next generation of mass murderers.
The Apartheid state of Israel. Forgive me Ms. Kates but you seem somewhat confused as to the meaning of the word. It usually refers to segregation. Its funny isn’t it that a large section of the Jews who live in this apartheid state had to flee for their lives from nearly all of the surrounding 22 Arab states. These countries not only have no tolerance for Jews, they refer to anyone who is not a Moslem as an Infidel and an enemy. I find it somewhat curious that you find nothing “apartheid” about these countries. Maybe you should do a project on how many churches there are in Saudi Arabia. Let me help you – there are none. It would not be tolerated.
I am proud to live in this Apartheid State. In 55 years we have become one of the most technologically advanced nations on this planet, with many innovations that have made Israel a true leader in many fields. It is tragic that we have to live in a region that feels threatened by our achievements. Israel is not an apartheid state and it is appalling that a so-called intelligent and thinking person like you can go around finding feeble excuses for mass murder. Ms. Kates there is no justification, in any society, for getting on a crowded bus, often packed with children, detonating an explosive belt, often packed with nails and shrapnel and destroying innocent lives. This is not a freedom fighter, or a person seeking justice, but a chronically and irreversibly evil human being.
I can only assume that one day in the near future Ms. Kates, you will chip off that heavy layer of make up and discover your conscience.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:47 pm
NS in NOVA asked:
“I lived in Germany 2004-2008 and I wonder what they’re supposed to spend stimulus money on.”
The around $100 billion stimulus package includes:
- temporary extension of short-time working benefits from 6 months to 18 months
- extra money for improving energy efficiency in buildings
- some infrastructure plans were brought forward
- temporary higher tax deductions for business investments
- a cash bonus of $3325 if you scrap your old car (9 year or older) and buy a new one
- additional money for job training programs
- additional money to help found a new business
They are probably some other things too. But these are the ones I remember.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Judd, shut your pie hole.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Great point, Matt.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Gosh F Germany, thanks for posting this very long non-sequitor. Apparently the Israeli Palestinian conflict is SOOOOOOOOOOOOO important we can’t even discuss German debt preferences without it intruding into our lives. So thanks again.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:50 pm
@ Detlef
Thanks for the information. I guess I wonder what Germany would spend money on if they initiated a U.S.-sized stimulus (relative to GDP).
March 31st, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Phil,
I’m not sure which heavy retail regulations Matt is talking about liberalizing. Store hours were already liberalized a few years back.
Maybe Matt meant that any country where WalMart couldn´t compete must be – per definition – highly regulated?
(From what I´ve read they made some pretty stupid business decisions.)
March 31st, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Another factor that I think comes into play in all of this (based on a few conversations with acquaintances here) seems to be a bit of “American stupidity got us into this mess, so why would we want to follow their lead now?” Anecdotal, sure, but I’ve heard the sentiment more than once.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:52 pm
In Luxembourg supermarket hours are as follows:
Weekdays 9 am to 5 or 6pm. Saturdays closed or 9am to noon. Sundays always closed.
As I recall the minimum wage there is equal to US$13/hour, and overtime is mandatory outside of normal business hours. I believe Sunday requires double time, and since you can’t make a profit paying grocery store clerks $26/hour, they are all closed.
The only retail open on Sunday are gas stations, who can afford the $26 an hour for a single clerk since large numbers of people come in from Belgium, France, and Germany to buy the region’s cheapest gas and cigarettes. Even then, many gas stations are closed on the weekend, especially Sunday.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Social (actually Christian) Democracy
Funny that Germany actually has a Social Democrat Party and a Christian Democrat Party, and they have shared time in power since WWII. So I have no idea what this “actually Christian” means.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Funny that Germany actually has a Social Democrat Party and a Christian Democrat Party, and they have shared time in power since WWII. So I have no idea what this “actually Christian” means.
Oh, simple really, no religious or ideological motivation on my part. In political economy, when talking about Europe, we generally refer to the Anglo-Saxon model, the Social Democratic model (think Scandanavia–with universal benefits paid for with substantial support from general revenue), and the Christian Democratic model (social benefits tied to work and contributions from work). Obviously those are ideal types of a sort. That’s all I was getting at.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:27 pm
One of the best ways to understand German politics is to make it a rule never, ever to use NYT as a source. This was the paper that thought Merckel was self-evidently going to win the last election in a landslide. After all, she was running on those neo-liberal/conservative “let’s imitate America” principles that was so very popular with the people with whom every NYT correspondent in Germany associated ( either Christian democrats, businessmen, or radically conservative nuts).
The Morgenpost poll today shows no increase for the FDs – they alternate between 2 more points and no gain. The Linke – the “organized irresponsibles”, according to the SPD, and my fave party, headed by Oskar Lafontaine – have expressed some interesting ideas, like raising the marginal rates on the wealthy to 80 percent. But as long as the SPD can’t find a way to make peace with the Linke, I don’t see much changing in this election.
March 31st, 2009 at 4:42 pm
In political economy, when talking about Europe…
I have studied Economics, and I have no idea what you are talking about. So I suspect your post refers to Political Science, a ’science’ rotten to the core. From an American point of view, every single European country is socialist or social democrat, because among other things they have universal health care and a mainly public education system.
From the European point of view, they have different parties and ideologies, some of them right-wing (business), some of them left-wing (unions) – this is, of course, a silly summary of what is really going on in each of those countries.
But I have never heard of anyone thinking that “Christian Democracy” is actually a fully-developed theory, no matter what the right-wing party in Germany calls itself.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:27 pm
From an American wingnut point of view, every single European country is socialist or social democrat,...
Fixed that for you.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Vanya, I consider myself a Socialist, or a Social Democrat, or whatever you want to call Senator Sanders. I hope this illuminates your understanding of my post.
March 31st, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Or maybe it’s this graph:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/c7szl8
German national debt is almost twice ours as a percentage of GDP.
March 31st, 2009 at 6:42 pm
Fascinating discussion with some original questions (such as what to spend stimulus on).
I’ve been hearing numerous Germans make the comment that a drift of voters to the Free Democrat Party will become much greater where the present government under Merkel commits itself to large scale nationalization of companies (especially Opel). These people suspect that many CDU voters (especially those of a certain age) will be extremely distrusting of a former citizen of East Germany who actively promotes an agenda of nationalization of industries. The banks may be one thing, these commenters argue, but industrial enterprises are quite another.
I can’t really judge that perspective, but it is definitely a local German take of one colour on the issue.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Why oh Why:
I’m sorry you have never heard of that. But it is common in comparing welfare state types. Germany is somewhere between a classic Christian Democracy, like Italy, and a Social Democracy like Sweden. Read the first few pages of this if you are interested for some references:
http://www.rwj.harvard.edu/papers/lynch/Lynch%20Cologne%20Apr%2004.pdf
Also, I’m all for social democracy so you don’t need be so snippy about it.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:23 pm
I’ve been hearing numerous Germans make the comment that a drift of voters to the Free Democrat Party will become much greater where the present government under Merkel commits itself to large scale nationalization of companies (especially Opel). These people suspect that many CDU voters (especially those of a certain age) will be extremely distrusting of a former citizen of East Germany who actively promotes an agenda of nationalization of industries. The banks may be one thing, these commenters argue, but industrial enterprises are quite another.
Eh, with a Grand Coalition if people disagree with government policy they tend to drift towards the minor parties. Hence the increase in FDP, Green, and Left poll numbers. Polling I have seen, however, indicates that the CDU is holding up relatively well compared to the SPD.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Well,Why oh why, I think it’s ridiculous to call Germany a “socialist” country. I don’t think most SPD members consider Germany a socialist country either. Sweden is a socialist democracy, but still not a socialist country. Spain, Portugal, Ireland and the UK certainly don’t qualify as “socialist countries” by most normal definitions of the word, although I’m sure most of the folks at Red State consider them to be so. Of course when I think of “socialism” I think of the GDR and the USSR.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:01 pm
David, apparently we had very different teachers. And that’s fine. Nobody is a prophet.
Vanya, what does “socialist” mean to you? For most right-wingers, it’s a call to arms. But to me, today, a socialist is someone who thinks that some (read: not all) sectors of the economy should be nationalized – in my opinion, education and health care first. And that it would help the country. I am a Socialist.
I would note that you try to distinguish between ’socialist’ and ’social democrats’. That’s also fine (I did that above). But it is really meaningless. The socialist tradition is a proud one in many countries; just not the US, or Eastern European states, for historical reasons.
Let’s be honest: what contemporary socialists or social democrats want is high tax rates on the rich, in order to fund social programs benefiting most of the middle class and all of the poor. Who is on their side? We’ll see.
April 1st, 2009 at 7:05 am
Domestic consumption in Germany has always been weak during the last decades and it is not easy to stimulate since the savings rate is very high. If consumers have more money, they safe more. And yes, I don´t understand either what Matt means by a “highly regulated retail”.
Having lived in Germany now for thirty years, I strongly disagree with the assumption, Germans didn´t fear high unempolyment rates because of the social safety net. First, most agree the unemployment rate is already very high and has been extremely high through most of the 90s and the worst that can happen is that it climbs back to where it was not long ago. Secondly, “Hartz IV” may guarantee high living standards compared to other countries but is a big step down from what the net once offered. And the longer you get it the less the probability you get highered anywhere. Receivers depend on government to a high degree.
One note to the German stimulus package
“a cash bonus of $3325 if you scrap your old car (9 year or older) and buy a new one”
Yes, the Abwrackprämie. Has worked extremely well so far for car builders such as GM´s subsidary Opel. And is currently beginning to kill dealer´s workshops for there are less old cars.
And one word regarding the elections:
The CDU may hold up well compared to the SPD but the margin between CDU/FDP and SPD/Greens/Left is very very thin.
April 1st, 2009 at 11:46 am
What does a hypothetical German stimulus fund?
Maybe they could build a wall around Berlin.
April 16th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Sorry. Difficulties are meant to rouse, not discourage. The human spirit is to grow strong by conflict.
I am from Malawi and too bad know English, give true I wrote the following sentence: “Credit an account for unused airline tickets purchased with a centrally billed must first return the unused tickets to the issuing airline or.”
Thank
Ovid.