Feb 13th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
The Haul
CBO analysis finally lets us get to the bottom of the much-disputed question of whether or not the recovery package is genuinely fast-acting. For the remainder of FY2009, we’ll have about $185 billion in tax cuts and new spending, and for FY2010, we’ll have about $400 billion in tax cuts and new spending. That adds up to 74 percent of the total cost of the bill, meaning that the congress has essentially hit President Obama’s goal of spending out 75 percent of stimulus funds in the first eighteen months.
32 Responses to “The Haul”
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February 13th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
That just means the end of the republic will come that much sooner as we go all commie.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
It doesn’t change the fact that the economy will be worse in 2 years (maybe much worse), and Democrats will pay a price for it.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
“That adds up to 74 percent of the total cost of the bill, meaning that the congress has essentially hit President Obama’s goal of spending out 75 percent of stimulus funds in the first eighteen months.”
This is only true if you replace the word “essentially” with the word “not.” Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
It doesn’t change the fact that the economy will be worse in 2 years (maybe much worse)…
This is hardly a fact. I’m as lukewarm as most liberals about the highly imperfect stimulus package, and the highly imperfect banking sector restructuring, but it’s certainly possible the economy will be growing again as early as late 2009, never mind the late winter of 2011. My guess would be tepid growth resuming sometime in early 2010, and unemployment peaking by the middle of next year. Yup, it’s just a guess, but so is your idea that the economy will be worse in February of 2011.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Quick correction to my earlier comment – there’s nothing magic about the 75% number. 74% is very close and is essentially what Obama wanted. Close really does count when it comes to fiscal stimulus.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
I meant in November 2010, for the next elections. Given the latest figures for unemployment, it is hard to believe the record of Democrats won’t be bad, no matter what they do or whether they are really responsible for it.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
As long as we’re picking nits, this is really over the next 19.5 months, not the next 18 months.
Of course that doesn’t escape the fact that the 75% standard is essentially meaningless. This bill is none of the following:
Temporary, targeted, or timely
And you surely must know this.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
I think it’s worth noting that, unlike with spending, there is no guarantee that the money people save from the tax cuts will be spent within 18 months. Much of it will be saved, and even the portion of it that will be spent in a stimulative way might not be spent until well after 18 months have passed. So I wonder how “fast-acting” the tax cut stimulus really is.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
I think it’s going to come down to whether or not we have the courage to actually smash the zombie banks and, maybe, the car companies, or we try to limp along and pretend everything’s fine, like the Japanese did in the last decade.
Where’s that passion for “creative destruction” gone?
February 13th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
I just want to know how they got all those clowns in that little car.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Give me the fucking money and I’ll spend it this weekend.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
“I meant in November 2010, for the next elections.”
That’s just a guess, too. You can shift what time period you’re talking about all you want, ’cause neither you nor anyone else knows how things will be in any of ‘em.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Jasper, colby, take a look at this graph:
http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/02/understanding_the_paradox_of_thrift.php
and tell me, seriously, why the economy may be better in November 2010 than it is now.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Re Matthew’s comment “CBO analysis finally lets us get to the bottom of the much-disputed question of whether or not the recovery package is genuinely fast-acting ”
————–
Well, “fast acting” in the sense that the voters will shit their pants when they get the bill…
February 13th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
That adds up to 74 percent of the total cost of the bill, meaning that the congress has essentially hit President Obama’s goal of spending out 75 percent of stimulus funds in the first eighteen months.
So 74% in 22 months is essentially 75% in 18 months?. That’s some crazy math you’re doing over there. Seems like in 18 months it’s going to be closer to 60%.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
I heart Dave Obey.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Why oh why,
Maybe you’re right. On the other hand, the economy tanked hard months before Obama took office, and the voters noticed. Heck, the fact that the economy was tanking was the biggest issue for the last two months of the campaign.
So it’s just guesswork whether voters will blame Democrats for it.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
That’s some crazy math you’re doing over there.
Actually Matt’s “math” is fine. You see rounding 22 to 18 is okay because it helps make his liberal argument. Just don’t try calling 850 billion a trillion because Matt will say you don’t know math. Or something like that.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
I like the way Republicans have completely given up on trying to make their doomed case, and spend all of their time trying to convince the liberal majority that they should be disappointed in Barack Obama, who is a lying liar.
Clearly, the sign of a movement that is confident in both its ideas and the depths and breadth of its support among the public.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Gordon and right:
Please come back when you understand what the term “fiscal year” means. The actual rounding being done is 19.5 down to 18.
February 13th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
I’m for the stimulus, more or less (more on the Krugman side of things), but note that in nearly achieving the (arbitrary) 75% target some of the heavy lifting comes from one of the fastest-acting disbursements: the Alternative Minimum Tax patch, which is targeted at the comfortably well-off and is therefore less likely to be spent and to stimulate.
February 13th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
and tell me, seriously, why the economy may be better in November 2010 than it is now.
Why oh Why: If credit markets are functioning better in late 2010 than now, and if the economy is no longer shrinking, in my book that’s an improved economy, even if the improvements are too modest or not yet sufficiently widely felt to help Democrats in 2010 (I fully expect the midterms to be tough for the good guys). If the banking sector is still on life support and the economy is still shrinking 20+ months from now, then we really are back in Hoover/FDR territory. I’m guessing we won’t be, but yes, I could be wrong.
February 14th, 2009 at 12:28 am
If the economy is as bad as Obama has been saying it is, this bill is too little, too late (at least for the midterms). Maybe it’s all part of Obama’s grand plan to unseat Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid by delaying an economic recovery? He knows Clinton did his best work after the GOP took over Congress and he wants his own GOP Congressional majority?
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