Forgot About Tim
Given the way the San Antonio Spurs won the NBA Championship in 2003 and 2005 and 2007, simple logic indicates that they’ll win in 2009. But for the bulk of the season, the LA Lakers have seemed to have a lock on the Western Conference. And yet look who’s gone and won eight out of their past ten games? The San Antonio Spurs!
Yes, they’re “only” 34-14, but Tony Parker’s missed ten games and Manu Ginobili’s missed thirteen. With them back in the lineup, San Antonio’s been storming forward. And Manu’s only been playing 27 minutes per game, which he can surely step up in the playoffs. Then of course there’s Tim Duncan who’s been totally brilliant. They still look like underdogs, I suppose, but the Spurs always seem to get forgotten just before they start winning again and then everyone forgets how they managed to forget about them in the first place.
42 Responses to “Forgot About Tim”
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February 10th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Tim Duncan exemplifies why the NBA is relegated to basic cable now. What could be more boring than watching a 7-footer stand two feet from the basket and toss lay-ups? I’d rather watch curling.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Do they still have Robert Horry? He could really take an opposing star out of the game.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Seriously, how far will the Lakers go without Bynum?
February 10th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
I daresay I am the biggest Spurs fan among your readers.
This team is difficult to gauge for lots of reasons. Bowen simply isn’t the same player he was a couple of years ago, and by moving Bonner into the starting lineup, you have a team that simply isn’t as good on the defensive end as the championship teams.
On the other hand, this team can bomb away unlike any Spurs team of recent vintage. Big Shot Rog and George Hill give us more athleticism than we have had.
So this is no longer a team that can manage to simultaneously win going away and not score 90 points, and they have had uncanny good fortune in close games. But while some of that is good coaching, and some of that is great focus and execution, a decent sized chunk of that is luck.
The rodeo trip is always sort of the kick-start to the play-off push, and I think it will be this year as well. Does the defense ratchet up a notch or two or three? If it does, we can play with anybody and have to be considered favorites in the first two rounds. If it doesn’t, I doubt we make it to the conference finals.
Ultimately, it will come down to the play of Ginobili. You know what you are getting from Duncan every night, and pretty much from Parker, too. Ginobili has the ability to be transcendant, but he also has the ability to disappear.
Certainly, I think we have to be considered one of the 4-6 teams with a realistic title shot.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
3: Really? The Lakers didn’t have a lot of trouble making it to the finals last season, and I don’t see any reason for them to be any worse this time around, even without Bynum. The Spurs are only getting older, and for Duncan and especially Ginobili, that’s a pretty big problem.
The Spurs are a very solid team and can play at a high level when healthy, but their collective age makes that a problem. I think overlooking them in 2007 was somewhat of a mistake, but understandable. Not expecting them to make a lot of noise in the playoffs this year is just reasonable.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
The Spurs are on quite the win streak, though let’s not get carried away. Some of those were not the greatest teams in the world – but still! Impressive.
But who would we consider the title teams? Clearly the Celtics, Cavs, and Lakers with Spurs and Magic as close runner-ups. Does no one see anyone else with the luck to make the run? The Spurs are only a few games ahead of everyone else in the West, so there could very well be a (lucky) contender in there – though sadly, I’m doubting on my beloved Blazers to be one of them.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Certainly, I think we have to be considered one of the 4-6 teams with a realistic title shot.
I would think everyone agrees with the following hierarchy:
Main contenders: Boston, Cleveland, LA Lakers
Dark horses: San Antonio, Orlando
Long shots: New Orleans, Denver, Utah, etc.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
for the bulk of the season, the LA Lakers have seemed to have a lock on the Western Conference. And yet look who’s gone and won eight out of their past ten games? The San Antonio Spurs!
Also: look who’s gone and won nine out of their past ten games? The Los Angeles Lakers!
February 10th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Fred, your problem is that all you see is the seven footer making layups. Watch the whole play – the way the penetration to the opposite side of the lane allows him to get deep position, the rotation of the ball to create the angle for the entry pass, the footwork required to keep the defender sealed underneath the rim, the strength and agility required to keep the shot-blocker off the ball, and the touch required to spin the ball off the glass. Watch him anticipate the double team no matter where it comes from, and watch him find each teammate in the position where he can do the most damage to the other team.
Or go watch curling. What do I care?
February 10th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Parker, Manu, actual defensive rotations, Tim’s bankshots, the Suns always losing…I mean, what’s not to love? If they don’t falter in the first 2 rounds, the Spurs will be the toughest out in the playoffs this year.
If Odom somehow puts up numbers like he did this past Sunday (on ABC, btw), the Lakers shouldn’t have much trouble. They have a good inside presence (which shut the Celts down this past week), depth off the bench, Derek Fisher, and some other guy.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Curtis has it right.
Roger Mason, George Hill, & Matt Bonner this year are all improvements over Brett Barry, Damon Stoudamire, and Robert Horry last year. Bonner has a better True Shooting % than Matt’s boy Biedrins. Hill and Mason have young legs and Bonner isn’t living off the vapor of his reputation like Horry. And Popovich can coach a little bit. With Bynum out, I’d put the Spurs as co-favorites to come out of the West with the Lakers.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
it’s not out of the question that this could be a repeat of the 2007 Finals – As a Cavs fan I a)wouldn’t mind this in the least, and b) would like a totally different outcome.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
right,
I would move the Spurs up into the first tier, and I would move the Magic into the first tier, and I would move the Hornets to the bottom of the third tier, below Utah, Denver and Portland.
The problem with the Hornets is they are not mentally tough enough to be serious title contenders. CP3 has a little too much Johnny Mac in him, and the difference between basketball and tennis is that unlike tennis, even if you can use the fire you get from the officiating to take your own game to a higher level, you have to worry about your teammates’ emotional responses.
In the meantime, Utah is getting healthy at the right time. Portland is learning to play together, and Billups is a much better fit with Carmelo than Iverson.
Obviously, some of these teams may face each other, but I tend to think the western semis will be LA, Spurs, Nuggets, and either Blazers or Jazz.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
No mention of scoring margin from Matt? San Antonio has usually had very high scoring margins during championship seasons, even if they didn’t have the best record. They’ve been winning a lot of games lately, but their margin hasn’t changed much during that span, I don’t believe. I’ll get a little less forgetful when they get in the same area code as the top tier.
On top of that, this really isn’t like most other seasons. Boston, LA, and Cleveland have really been fantastic and it’s hard to not mention Orlando in that group (can they keep hitting all those 3s, though?). It’s not all that often that 4 teams are on pace to win over 60 games. True, three of them are in the East and the Spurs would only have to get past the Lakers in the West. But it’s not like they’ll have it easy in the first round or two either- the West goes much deeper.
As much as the odd-numbered year argument is strangely compelling (BTW, go Tribe in 2009!) I think 2009 is just too much unlike 2003, 2005, and 2007 in other, more compelling ways.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Lakers just beat Boston and Cleveland back to back on the road. I wouldn’t get too high on the spurs. And after watching Odom against Cleveland, I don’t think they’ll miss Bynum too much. Cavs will beat them in the finals, but that’s another topic.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Curtis,
Thanks for the intelligent response. Here are my other problems with the game though:
1) Too many fucking games means each game is relatively meaningless. Even in the playoffs — 7 game series? Come on. That’s the reason why March Madness is a bigger deal than the NBA playoffs — each game is meaningful because it’s single elimination.
2) The incessant squeaking sounds of sneakers on polished wood.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Lakers just went 6-0 on a tough road trip, rolling over Boston on the fatigue side of a back-to-back, snapping a long Celtic win streak (again).
And then they cruised past Cleveland, snapping their 23-0 home win streak.
And all without Bynum, and with Kobe staggering from the flu.
Spurs are a fine team, and can never be ignored. (Horry’s semi-retired but might actually hook up with the Lakers or someone for the playoffs. Maybe take some of the money the Lakers now have after letting Radmonovich go.)
Just sayin’.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
Fred,
I agree with you about the sneakers.
I disagree with you about the games, at least in the play-offs. Having one game decide everything does make for great drama in any particular game, and it dramatically increases the chance that inferior teams move on. So you end up with a team that won a tournament, which is cool, but it doesn’t tell you near as much about who the best team is.
A seven game series leaves you with a definitive statement has to which team is better.
It is a difference of taste.
NTEW is crying in 2 on behalf of all of Phoenix. But really, let’s look at it:
2008: 4-1
2007: 4-2
2005: 4-1
2003: 4-2
Twice the Suns had the homecourt advantage, and twice the Spurs had the homecourt advantage. In those four series, there were 11 games in San Antonio (Spurs 8-3) and 11 games in Phoenix (Spurs 8-3). Would it have been better if Horry hadn’t caught Nash with his thigh and the Suns lose a couple of guys? Sure. Would it have been better had Nash not cut open his face in a freak play and miss key possessions in a close game? Or Joe Johnson breaking his face? Of course. But seven game series don’t lie. Take one to a seventh game, Phoenix, and then cry.
You see, the answer is definitive. On the other hand, with any particular NCAA national championship, it is the fluke of one game. Kansas was better than Syracuse, then missed every free throw for 30 minutes and lost one game, and the Orange are champs. NC State may have been the winners of the tournament, but they weren’t particularly close to being the best team in their conference.
So, yeah, it is exciting, but it just doesn’t tell you as much.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
“
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People shouldn’t sleep on Utah. Boozer and Williams should be close to 100% by the playoffs and they are capable of beating the Lakers and Spurs, especially if they can keep the unnecessary fouls to a minimum.
As a Suns fan, I’m bracing for Kerr to keep fucking up a once beautiful team. Unless we can get Bosh for Amare straight-up, I don’t see a trade making this Rube Goldberg roster competitive.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
Waingro,
I have been shocked and horrified at Kerr’s performance as GM. Now it looks like they are going to move Stoudamire. Stunning. He can’t get back to TNT fast enough.
I didn’t realize I was itching this much for a good NBA post.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Unless we can get Bosh for Amare straight-up…
I’m pretty sure Stern would have to disallow this trade even if it were ever attempted simply to maintain the integrity of the league.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Willie,
Since Stern let the Lakers get Gasol for nothing I don’t see how he can plausibly ever black a trade as being unfair. It would just further re-enforce the idea that they rig things to favor marquee teams.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
From what I read the Suns owner doesn’t want to pay the luxury tax and moving Amare is as much about that as being competitive. I think Kerr can squint and see how a deal for Rasheed Wallace plus a young player and a pick gives the Suns a better chance over the last two years of Steve Kerr and Shaq in Phoenix instead of Amare. At least you can sell it that way, even if it’s all about paying less money to the roster.
Rasheed is pretty darn good when he’s motivated as a rental next to Shaq and Nash, he’d be motivated.
February 11th, 2009 at 5:01 am
“I would move the Spurs up into the first tier, and I would move the Magic into the first tier, and I would move the Hornets to the bottom of the third tier, below Utah, Denver and Portland.”
While I agree that there is no longer any “second tier”, I don’t think Orlando belongs in the first tier. Jameer’s injury essentially eliminates their title hopes this year.
First tier: Boston, Cleveland, Lakers, San Antonio.
Second tier: No one.
Third tier: Orlando, Portland, New Orleans, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, Detroit.
—–
The sound of the sneakers on hardwood is actually quite nice. It’s got pleasant jazz rhythms.
—–
“Also, I can’t believe how low the value of Amare Stoudemire is right now … I realize that his performance so far this year has been awful, but is he THAT bad? Really?”
Money. Money. Money.
League revenues are contracting, and Amare is up for a max extension that he may not justify. No one wants to spend that kind of money on him right now, hence his trade value has collapsed.
If he was signed for the next four years at $12m per, teams would be offering a lot more value for him.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:19 am
The “Spurs always seem to get forgotten just before they start winning again” meme needs to die. The Spurs are never forgotten. Back in early December the CW was that the only team that could beat the Lakers in the West are the Spurs. The only people that count the Spurs out are sportswriters that want to come back 4 months later with the annual “You counted them out in December, but look who’s back” article. Quick show of hands, who here didn’t have the Spurs as a top contender for the Western Conference crown? No one? Thought so.
The crazy thing about Amare is that they’re rebuilding on a core of 35 and 36 year olds. Not exactly a way to rebuild. If they want to cut spending and get some young talent, trade Nash and draft a young PG. It will be painful, but building around Amare and Richardson makes more sense than building around Nash and Shaq. Then, in the offseason, ditch Porter for Thibideau.
February 11th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
I used to love Steve Kerr as Marv’s color guy. How did I miss the fact that he apparently knows absolutely nothing about basketball?
February 11th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Fred just doesn’t like pro hoops. Fair enough.
Good thread! Kinda drew me back into the NBA for a bit … I’ll be back when March Madness is over (so sue me, I lobe BOTH MM and the NBA, each has it’s place).
I think the conventional wisdom expressed here that Bynum won’t be much missed is wrong, though.
February 11th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
===
It is amazing. And he’s also to blame for forcing D’Antoni out in a front-office power struggle so he could hire….Terry Porter. I Kerr is working with payroll restrictions, but he is really wrecking the Suns at a tremendous speed…and because he’s an ex-player he’s getting a pass. I think if he hadn’t spent time as a media guy he would be getting killed.
Detroit Lions fans have seen Steve Kerr before when he called himself Matt Millen.
February 14th, 2009 at 3:52 am
The Spurs are definitely looking scarier sneaking up under the radar, as are the Jazz (which I despise admitting).
But I think my team, the Nuggets, are poised to maintain their contention for the 2nd/3rd seed. They just went into the All-Star break with a road win in Orlando that was their best defensive effort – and probably best victory – of the season. They have a fairly tough stretch of schedule through February, but if they can weather it well, they should be able to fairly well coast through March and April. And year after year, it isn’t until after the AS break that Karl seems to really get the team to come together, start meshing and performing consistently at or near their highest level.
I don’t think we’re looking like the team that can win a 7-game series against the Lakers yet (although Bynum’s absence could crack open that window), but we have a damn good chance of making it into the WCF.
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