Does the GOP Governors Split Foreshadow the Party’s Future?
Robert Pear and J. David Goodman take to the pages of The New York Times with the provocative notion that the debate between Republican governors over the stimulus package “will go a long way toward shaping how the national party redefines itself in the wake of its election defeats of recent years”.
I’m not really sure how true that is. The issues posed by the stimulus bill are only tangentially related to those of “ordinary” politics. But if this is the future, then it’s a bit hard to see it playing out well for Republicans:
For some — mostly Democrats but also a few prominent moderate Republicans — the bill represents an admittedly imperfect but desperately needed infusion of cash that will help them avert thousands of layoffs.
For others — predominantly conservative Southern Republicans — the flaws partly outweigh the benefits. And for those with presidential aspirations, the strong stance in opposition to the Obama administration may be seen as a way to stand out and stake a claim to leadership.
If it’s true that the only kind of politics that will play in a GOP presidential primary is the kind of politics that plays in Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina but not California or Florida (!) then it’s just hard to see how Republicans get to a majority. At the same time, I recall having read a lot of commentary about how the rise of Iraq War opponents such as Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, and Barack Obama was going to doom the Democrats to some kind of big city oblivion. Instead, well, we got what we have.
I think the main lesson this teaches us is of the transcendent importance of events in political matters. Opposition to the Iraq War was fairly unpopular at one point, but as time when on it became a majority position far outside of Vermont and the Bay Area. At the moment, opposition to the stimulus only seems politically tenable in the Deep South and the Mormon belt. But public opinion on the economy is quite different today from where it was 18 months ago. Why? Well, obviously because the actual situation changed. And 18 months from now—and 18 months from then—things will likely change again. They might change in such a way as to make the stimulus skeptics look utterly discredited or they come to seem rather prescient to some people.
But even if the Jindal/Sanford/Barbour line does come to be more popular in the future, there’s still the question of what you’re going to be for along with what you’re against. And as Joe Klein observes, what Jindal seems to be for is tax cuts for wealth individuals. I don’t have that high an estimation of the public’s memory and I could see people yearning for a returning to the failed economic strategies of the Bush years in 2016 or 2020, but I think it strains credulity to think that voters will have forgotten by 2010 or 2012 that this is a governing philosophy that’s been tried and found wanting.
73 Responses to “Does the GOP Governors Split Foreshadow the Party’s Future?”
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February 23rd, 2009 at 9:33 am
They might change in such a way as to make the stimulus skeptics look utterly discredited or they come to seem rather prescient to some people.
Opposition to the Iraq War by the people you mention was based on the rational assessment that it was a bad idea—it was not merely adopting a minority-contrarian position in hopes that doing so might pay off politically in the future. So, Matt: What possible scenario are you proposing that might make “stimulus skeptics” look prescient?
February 23rd, 2009 at 9:37 am
I wonder why no one has pointed out how ridiculous this is? It’s not like the Republican Party doesn’t use a delegate system, doesn’t award more delegates to bigger states, and at least for the moment has a divide between winner take all and proportional allocation that overwhelmingly favors big, somewhat more moderate states like New York, New Jersey, Florida, and even California. John McCain won an overwhelming victory in 2008, despite a rather poor showing in the Deep South, which Huckabee swept. And that was in a year when both parties had contested primaries, and the nature of the Democratic primary was drawing most independent and moderate primary voters to their contests. 2012, on the other hand, will almost certainly feature no sort of competitive Democratic primary, meaning the national Republican primary will likely be much more moderate than normal.
February 23rd, 2009 at 9:38 am
So, Matt: What possible scenario are you proposing that might make “stimulus skeptics” look prescient?
Are you kidding? Deteriorating economic conditions that can be credibly–even if not accurately–tied, in part, to the stimulus package. Say crap employment numbers plus large inflation numbers.
February 23rd, 2009 at 9:41 am
As the saying credited to Napoleon Bonaparte goes, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
Remember that unemployment benefits are paid to the legendary “hard working people” who have fallen on hard times–lost their jobs through no fault of their own, and can’t find work in the worst economy in decades. _Whatever_ happens to the economy in the next three years, Jindal is going out of his way to give the finger to the very people Republicans falsely claim to be defending. How does that end up benefitting him?
February 23rd, 2009 at 9:44 am
Deteriorating economic conditions that can be credibly–even if not accurately–tied, in part, to the stimulus package. Say crap employment numbers plus large inflation numbers.
In my opinion, an attempt to pin further deterioration in the economy on the Democrats is not going to fly with anyone outside the 25% hardcore GOP base.
February 23rd, 2009 at 9:47 am
No split. There is no ideology underlying the republican party beyond making sure that the wealthy are taxed as little as possible. The rest of what they do is just PR moves designed to put them into office so they can . . . make sure the wealthy are taxed as little as possible. There’s an inherent flexibility there that the democratic party doesn’t have.
February 23rd, 2009 at 10:20 am
Matt, you seem to be making more typos in the last few weeks.
Are you getting enough sleep?
February 23rd, 2009 at 10:23 am
I assume Matt’s use of the Governator pic is supposed to show that the Cali GOP is markedly less crazy than the LA, MI, or SC Repubs. Not so! The unique politics of the 2003 recall of Gray Davis was the only way a “moderate” GOPer like Ahnold could get into statewide office. The recent budget battle and the subsequent mau-mauing of handful of Republicans in the legislature willing to evince some sanity confirms that the CA state GOP can do crazy as well as any in the nation.
February 23rd, 2009 at 10:27 am
Polling doesn’t look that good for Republicans at the moment. They have to hope the economy not only implodes, but that they can also drive a wedge betweent the “producers” and the “takers”. This strategy is, as Matt implies, circumstance-dependent. IMO, the downside risk is huge since voters are not likely to see their salvation in laissez-faire economics. But there is an upside, too. If Republicans can make the case that minorities are the ones really responsible for this crisis, they could galvanize enough white voters to win after 2012. Remember: they still have the megaphones, the sound-bites, and the crazy juice. It would be tantamount to mutually-assured destruction politically, but given the demographic tsunami facing them, a risk worth taking.
February 23rd, 2009 at 10:47 am
the republicans as we know them are finished. “Small government” cannot work in an economy as large and complex as ours. this country is headed toward center-left politics. the repubs of tomorrow will look like the dems of today.
February 23rd, 2009 at 10:50 am
I would really enjoy watching Jindal self-immolate, if it weren’t at the expense of his entire state. He really, truly believes that the Republican base is going to support a brown-skinned dude named “Piyush” in a primary election? Has he lost his mind?
February 23rd, 2009 at 10:51 am
Republican governors of poor states would like wealthy states to fall to their level, and that’s not just schaudenfreude (sp?), it’s a bid to redefine our economic and cognitive map. I understand the impulse, and in a perverted way it is real advocacy for their states.
February 23rd, 2009 at 10:56 am
I’m sure many of you saw the clip on TPM where Glenn Beck was hosting a round table discussion about future armed rebellions of “bubbas” against the federal government, aided and abetted by members of the armed forces who love the constitution too much to follow the orders of their Commander in Chief. With characteristic sincerity, the waste of cytoplasm was feigning shock and horror about the future he is working so hard to make a reality.
Now I know there was some overheated rhetoric on the left after the 2000 recount fiasco and Supreme Court decision. But conservatives of goodwill — can you point me to any members of the left with a comparable mainstream platform who were actually inciting armed, violent resistance to the Bush government and large scale disobedience by members of the military?
February 23rd, 2009 at 11:04 am
If it’s true that the only kind of politics that will play in a GOP presidential primary is the kind of politics that plays in Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina but not California or Florida (!) then it’s just hard to see how Republicans get to a majority.
Rush Limbaugh and the like are advocating policies the R party will not itself implement. If they can con Democrats into carrying out those policies, they win. If it destroys the economy, they really win. If they fail to con Democrats into carrying out those policies, and the economy rebounds, they can still point to something bad happening (’Black people better of’) and argue that. They can also claim to be principled, even if they have no intention of implementing those policies. Hell, they can get the D’s to inflict Hooveresque policies and then sweep in and play FDR. For government spending! For lower taxes for rich people! Against black people!
They’ve got no incentive to do anything but what they’re doing, especially since they can argue their actual policies cost them the majority. They don’t have to worry about hurting the poor, since poor people in the South are black!
max
['Lacking a conscience is, in some ways, a major political asset.']
February 23rd, 2009 at 11:05 am
Opposition to the Iraq War was fairly unpopular at one point,
This is simply not true.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_popular_opinion_on_invasion_of_Iraq
The American people had deep and grave misgivings about this thing from the start, and even after the aggressive sales job from the Bush Administration, they still had grave misgivings and wanted more validators, like the UN. This is in spite of the fact that there was comparatively little news coverage of the case against the war, except, of course, the outsized coverage given to a small minority of kumbayah hippies.
The only real exception to this pattern is the weeks immediately after the invasion. Frankly, this is the public opinion equivalent of standing on the docks, cheering and waving goodbye to soldiers. Even if you think a war is stupid, you’re certainly not going to say it to the boys’ face as they’re shipping off.
February 23rd, 2009 at 11:31 am
Jindal, Stanford and the like must figure that if the stimulus works their political chances are nil on the national level. If the stimulus fails, by opposing it, they can claim to have been right at the beginning. If they support stimulus now they lose politically whether the stimulus succeeds or fails.
February 23rd, 2009 at 11:49 am
Cant’ people see that there is something wrong with Jindal? Just look at any picture of him. For God sakes the guy is a freak, and looks like a retard to boot. If he’s the future of the republican party, good on them. Between him and Palin they’ll have the ho and the retard vote locked up.
February 23rd, 2009 at 11:57 am
What the Republicans should be doing is running against California. The state in dominated by Democrats and has a governor who is more Democrat than Republican. The Democrats and Gov. schwarzenegger failed to cut spending during the good times, expanded long term entitlements based upon a housing bubble economy, are driving out middle class, private sector workers, and face long term financial problems. Borrowing money to fund new entitlements is foolish. Short term funding for long term entitlements is foolish. If you want to make the entire country like California, then to the stimulus plan instead of thinking about the long term costs.
February 23rd, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Superdestoyer,
All the Dems need to do is point out that California is still in a better position than say Louisiana, S. Carolina, etc. A lot of the southern states are dirt poor.
February 23rd, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Micheline,
However, California is on the downslope whereas many of the southern states are on the rise. California has become too expensive to afford a private sector employed middle class. Being middle class in South Carolina is much easier than in California.
February 23rd, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Why not offer (or at least threaten to offer) federal direct unemployment assistance? It’d be a nice way to remind these dickweeds that ‘their’ citizens are also citizens of the entire United States, which often seems to be a missing viewpoint in Southern political leadership.
February 23rd, 2009 at 1:05 pm
A Conservative listener calls a Progressive TV show to discuss the Stimulus Bill, hilarity ensues:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H156Rrc0iL4
February 23rd, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Is Jindal already so convinced of his national electability that he’s this eager to screw his own constituents with the cameras running? The mind boggles at his Mittens-like distain for the state he’s elected to serve.
But I suppose it’s TAINTED, godless money he’s protecting his peeps from. What a tool.
February 23rd, 2009 at 1:40 pm
“The state in dominated by Democrats and has a governor who is more Democrat than Republican.”
It would be pretty difficult to paint that portrait, especially on the second point. Whatever his policies are, he still campaigned for Bush and McCain. Those images are far more palpable to voters.
February 23rd, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Why does Matt continue to repeat the lie that Jindal is refusing all the stimulus funds? He’s just turning down the unemployment increase, and is using state money to increase unemployment insurance instead.
February 23rd, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Apparently you have a higher estimation of the public’s memory then I do. Even by 2010 the news media will be spouting off left and right about how Obama is dragging us further and further into debt and that that is what is causing the terrible economy. Whether or not (papers, magazines, radio, and TV, will all argue) Bush was responsible for the initial economic problems, and there is no conclusive evidence of that, clearly Obama has made the problems much worse. Here is a chart showing the economy is now worse then it was in 2008, see, so it must be all Obama’s fault.
By 2010 the country will be ready to elect Jeb Bush, if there were a presidential election then, certainly they will have no problems reelecting more republicans. Public memory is short, and the news media have an unbelievable ability to vastly distort the situation.
Another point I want to make relates to the endless “fools or liars” debate when it comes to the Republican governors talking about refusing the stimulus money. I believe that most people, when offered the options of voting against (because, let’s face it, in this day and age people aren’t really voting FOR candidates anymore, but AGAINST other candidates) a fool, or against a liar, most people would rather vote against the liar, as the fool might realize what is really going on and fix things, whereas a liar is always going to be corrupt.
My guess is that people like Jindal and others are hoping that by refusing public money for their own states, Independents and democrats will see them as principled fools, rather then liars, and so will not vote against them. My take is that they are liars, but just a clever form of liars insofar as they realize they are best off pretending to be fools.
Or, perhaps, I am being too cynical…
February 23rd, 2009 at 11:00 pm
Re: However, California is on the downslope whereas many of the southern states are on the rise.
The only Southern states that are on the rise are those that have seen significant in-migration from non-Southerners and have consequently moderated their old share-cropper planatation style politics: Virginia and North Carolina mainly, but to a lesser extent Tennessee, Texas and Georgia (Florida is in a class by itself). The states still clinging to the past– Lousiana, Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina– are and remain a mess.
February 24th, 2009 at 12:17 am
Anybody notice that Ah-nuld’s frown and Maria’s frown look exactly the same in the picture?
Scary. I used to think Maria wasn’t bad looking.
February 24th, 2009 at 12:39 am
“Cant’ people see that there is something wrong with Jindal? Just look at any picture of him. For God sakes the guy is a freak, and looks like a retard to boot.”
Very enlightened of you to judge someone by his appearances. What’s that stupid verb feminists like? “Objectify”? And Jindal is plenty smart, don’t you worry about that.
February 27th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
anonymiss writes:
The problem is that your link contains no info between May 2003 (79% approval, two months after the invasion) and August 2004.
March 6th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
Можно и подискутировать по этому поводу …
March 11th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Я в принципе, мало, что смыслю в этм посте, но постараюсь все таки понять.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
Очень понравилось, даже не ожидала.
March 13th, 2009 at 4:23 am
Очень понравилось, даже не ожидала.
March 13th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
Ага, теперь понятно…А то я сразу не очень то и не понял где тут связь с самим заголовком…
March 14th, 2009 at 4:38 am
Уважаемый автор блога, а вы случайно не из Москвы?
March 15th, 2009 at 2:42 am
Спасибо за статью.. Актуально мне сейчас.. Взяла себе еще перечитать.
March 15th, 2009 at 7:39 am
Очень интересно!!! Только не очень могу понять как часто обновляется ваш блог?
March 16th, 2009 at 7:21 am
Я в принципе, мало, что смыслю в этм посте, но постараюсь все таки понять.
March 17th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Уважаемый автор блога, а вы случайно не из Москвы?
March 17th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
А Вы не задумывались о том, чтобы параллельно завести еще один блог, на смежную тему? У Вас неплохо получается
March 19th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Ага, теперь понятно…А то я сразу не очень то и не понял где тут связь с самим заголовком…
March 20th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
А у вас пара ошибок в тексте… тока не обижайтесь )
March 26th, 2009 at 12:38 am
Интересно, а почему так редко блог обновляете?
March 26th, 2009 at 3:27 am
Да, похоже что в действительности – так оно и есть. P.S. Сайт, кстати, у вас прикольно сверстан
March 28th, 2009 at 3:56 am
Огромное человеческое спасбо!
March 29th, 2009 at 4:38 am
Сенкс за инфу, почитал с интересом
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Вот решил вам немного помочь и послал этот пост в социальные закладки. Очень надеюсь ваш рейтинг возрастет.
April 4th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
women is so scared :O
April 5th, 2009 at 10:39 am
как сказал один очень умный человек которого мы все хорошо знаем )
Растить в душе побег унынья – преступленье,
Пока не прочтена вся книга наслажденья
Лови же радости и жадно пей вино:
Жизнь коротка, увы! Летят её мгновенья.
April 6th, 2009 at 5:19 am
Спасибо. Просто спасибо, за красивые мысли вслух. В цитатник.
April 6th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Хорошо пишете. Надеюсь, когда-нибудь увижу нечто подобное и на своем блоге…
April 7th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Да уж. В этом блоге хоть комментаторы нормальные.. А то пишут обычно в комментарии ерунду всякую.
April 7th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Спасибо вам за сайт, очень полезный ресурс, мне очень нравится
April 8th, 2009 at 9:05 am
Альпинарий – что это такое, и с чем его едят?
Возможно ли его сделать в домашних условиях?
April 8th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Очень интересно, но все в будущем хотелось бы еще побольше узнать об этом. Очень понравилась ваша статья!
April 9th, 2009 at 1:15 am
Огромное вам пасибо! а еще посты на эту тему будут в будущем? Очень жду!
April 9th, 2009 at 11:32 pm
А Вы не задумывались о том, чтобы параллельно завести еще один блог, на смежную тему? У Вас неплохо получается
April 10th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Каждое колесо Airtrax оснащено собственным электрическим или гидравлическим двигателем, трансмиссией, тормозом и блоком управления.
April 10th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Классная статья, кстати автору хочу предложить установить от яндекс.денег фишку на сайт “Дай рубль”. Я бы дал, так сказать на поддержание.
April 11th, 2009 at 4:38 am
Автор выйди к напроду, вопросы есть!
April 12th, 2009 at 6:29 am
Очень интересно, но все в будущем хотелось бы еще побольше узнать об этом. Очень понравилась ваша статья!
April 12th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Чёрт возьми! Круто!Вы Сами ответили.Беру в цитник! Смысл жизни и всё остальное. Решено.Без шуток.
April 13th, 2009 at 7:36 am
Огромное вам человеческое спасибо, очень актуальная заметка.
April 14th, 2009 at 9:40 am
И да прибудет с нами сила
April 14th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
The sponsor on a make-up of 66 ceremonies of the premium « the Gold globe » which will pass in Hollywood on January, 11th new year became known. To it becomes cosmetic company Mistura Beauty.
[b]http://womandreams.ru[/b]
April 15th, 2009 at 12:35 am
Уважаемый автор блога, а вы случайно не из Москвы?
April 15th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Добавил в свои закладки. Теперь буду вас намного почаще читать!
April 16th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Спасибо. Просто спасибо, за красивые мысли вслух. В цитатник.
April 16th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Очень интересно!!! Только не очень могу понять как часто обновляется ваш блог?
April 17th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Я бы сказала о монументальности, грандиозности некоторых сюжетов. А назвала бы – “нефильтрованный реал”. На мой взгляд, красота – это все-таки другое: лучшее, чистое, избранное, заставляющее трепетать и поражаться. Можно найти красоту во всем, но всё скопом – не есть красота. Имхо.
April 18th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Интересно, а почему так редко блог обновляете?
April 19th, 2009 at 7:16 am
И да прибудет с нами сила