Matt Yglesias

18 Responses to “Chas Freeman’s In”

1. strasmangelo jones Says:
   February 26th, 2009 at 3:32 pm

   A somewhat positive sign, but Dennis Ross is now special adviser for the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia. Given that means Iran and much of the Mideast are now being covered by a belligerent warmonger, I’m not too impressed with Obama’s foreign policy picks so far.

2. Ed Smithe Says:
   February 26th, 2009 at 3:44 pm

   Good point strasmangelo…Although I think that Hillary has a lot more to do with that one than Obama.

   Which brings up another issue. Why is it that Obama seems to be so uninterested in foreign policy? Sure there’s Iraq and Afghanistan, but the rest of his FP has been outsourced to Hillary and her band of merry hawkish Wilsonians.

3. TH Says:
   February 26th, 2009 at 3:56 pm

   I don’t think he’s uninterested, just that he’s sort of got his hands full right now. Absent the financial crisis, he’d probably have convened an Israeli/Palestinian summit by now.

4. Kolohe Says:
   February 26th, 2009 at 4:05 pm

   I’m curious what your opinion is on this: http://www.reason.com/blog/show/131843.html.

5. fostert Says:
   February 26th, 2009 at 4:15 pm

   Too bad it’s too late. The government in Israel still hasn’t been formed, but we already know that they will be even less willing to negotiate than Hamas. By the time Israel is willing to negotiate, there will be no West Bank left to talk about. But hey, there’s always that shithole called Gaza. If it were worth something, Israel would take that too. The interesting thing about Palestinians is how they respond when you ask them where they’re from. Most people say “I’m from .” When you ask a Palestinian, they just say “I’m Palestinian.” They really aren’t from anywhere. They have no country. That will clearly always be the case. So it’s worthless to even talk about Mr. Freeman’s attitudes about Israel. Israel will control all of the original British Mandate, and there’s not a damn thing we can do about it. The only real policy is to find some place for Palestinians to live where Israel won’t kill them. How about North Dakota?

6. Zaid Says:
   February 26th, 2009 at 4:23 pm

   What’s your guys’ opinion about Congressman Baird and his change of heart on Palestine following his visit to Gaza?

   http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/dannywestneat/2008782783_danny25.html

7. tWB Says:
   February 26th, 2009 at 5:02 pm

   Here’s something I haven’t seen clarified (and I guess we will soon enough): is Freeman DDNI/A or not? Everything I’ve read describes him as the incoming chair of NIC, but DDNI/A is by definition NIC chair. Has this changed? And, if not, why the focus on NIC instead of, you know, the fact that Freeman will run the overarching analytic arm of the intelligence community?

8. Katherine Says:
   February 26th, 2009 at 5:38 pm

   Zaid -

   Thanks for the link. I think more Americans would be willing to see two sides of the conflict if they actually went to look at things themselves.

9. Petey Says:
   February 26th, 2009 at 6:19 pm

   “A somewhat positive sign, but Dennis Ross is now special adviser for the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia.”

   I love you, strasmangelo, but don’t you understand the two are linked?

   I’m no fan of Ross on the policy merits, but I was mildly enthusiastic about the idea of having him in the administration to provide political cover.

   Freeman wouldn’t be in without Ross. And whatever opening towards Iran that is coming would be far more difficult without Ross.

10. Richard Steven Hack Says:
    February 26th, 2009 at 6:44 pm

    “whatever opening towards Iran that is coming would be far more difficult without Ross.”

    I don’t understand that one at all.

    First, there is ZERO evidence that Obama is “opening” anything to Iran. His attitude is exactly the same as Bush down the line, except some noise about “diplomacy”, namely that Iran cannot have any centrifuges on Iranian soil.

    There is no compromise possible between the two sides, So someone has to blink. Bush could afford to blink – he was on the way out. Obama has four more years to endure Republican, neocon and Israeli bitching at him to “stop Iran” – which is not possible absent a military strike by either the US or Israeli (which wouldn’t stop Iran and just start a war).

    While I’m fairly sure Obama doesn’t want to start another right now, the problem is that none of his “diplomacy” is going to resolve the problem.

    So again, in the end the bottom line is: either the US or Israel attacks Iran, or somebody has to blink. And the Iranians are very unlikely to blink since they need that nuclear energy program.

    It is possible, but unlikely, that the Iranian desire to restore normal relations with the US might cause them to temporarily suspend enrichment while negotiations are ongoing, but unless they are willing to rely on Russia to supply their nuclear fuel forever – which is REALLY unlikely – there is no way they are going to stop enrichment permanently.

    This leave Obama with the need to blink.

    And unless the Israelis are just bitching and moaning about Iran for their own domestic political reasons, Israel is highly unlikely to allow Obama to futz around and blink for the next four years like they did Bush.

    The Israelis knew Cheney wanted a war. Cheney tried to bribe them with $30 billion to start it, to cover his ass. They balked, wanting the US to start it to cover their ass. Their only fear is that they will lose leverage over the US if they start it and get blamed for the resulting mess.

    So unless Israel fears that more than they fear a nuclear capable (if not nuclear armed) Iran, Israel has to make a move within the next two to four years if Obama does not.

    The prognosis is not good.

    I’d like to take this opportunity to admit, pursuant to my bet with Arnold Evans, that my prediction that Bush would attack Iran before leaving office was incorrect.

    Why it was incorrect I don’t know. Maybe Bush really is a wuss and folded under Pentagon pushback against attacking Iran. We’ll have to wait for somebody’s memoirs to figure that out.

    But the reality is it didn’t happen. Mea culpa.

    However, Arnold and I have a new bet: that either Obama or the Israelis attack Iran within the next two years, or both blink and allow the Iranians to continue enrichment. I say the odds favor a war, Arnold favors continued blinking.

    So we’ll see who’s right in two years.

11. joe from Lowell Says:
    February 26th, 2009 at 10:42 pm

    “A somewhat positive sign, but Dennis Ross is now special adviser for the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia.”

    Ideological conformity doesn’t seem to be a top-tier concern for Barack Obama in his appointments. He’s the sort of person who values hearing the other side. That he was going to appoint Judd Gregg to his cabinet proves that.

    There are a lot of advantages to this, as long as he can genuinely command the loyalty of his diverse subordinates. It’s a good way to make sure policies get rigorous internal criticism and review. It makes “Nixon goes to China” moments possible.

12. Richard Steven Hack Says:
    February 27th, 2009 at 5:37 am

    There is zero evidence so far that Obama is “going to Iran” any time soon.

    Susan Rice just proclaimed again at the UN that the US is going to stop the “Iranian nuclear program” – you know, the legal one that Iran has which has nothing to do with nuclear weapons.

    So far, Obama is “Bush Lite” on Iran.

13. The Navigator Says:
    February 27th, 2009 at 9:55 am

    This is good news, but it’s also evidence that antagonizing the “pro-Israel” lobby is no longer bad for your career. Which is itself good news, but means that we can no longer assume that AIPAC has a stranglehold on the acceptable range of Mideast-related dialogue.

14. Joshua Says:
    February 28th, 2009 at 11:06 am

    Also, it means that you can attain a high position in the U.S. government even if you think that the Chinese government should have been tougher on the Tienanmen Square protesters in 1989.

15. dualdiagnosis Says:
    March 1st, 2009 at 3:25 pm

    Positive news, it’s about time we got someone in with the view that the Chinese did not crack down hard enough on those noisy protesters in Tienanmen Square.

16. How to Get Your Ex Back Says:
    April 10th, 2009 at 2:12 am

    This topic is quite trendy in the net at the moment. What do you pay attention to when choosing what to write about?