Feb 6th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Centrist Senators Change Stimulus By Redistributing Wealth Upwards
If my understanding of what’s happening in the Senate is correct, a bipartisan group of “centrists” is going to modify the stimulus proposal by making it somewhat less generous to poor people and somewhat more generous to prosperous homebuyers. Paris was worth a mass, and a recovery package is worth a dumb homebuyers’ tax credit. But people shouldn’t be under any delusions as to what Nelson, Collins, and co. are doing—they’re slimming the bill down by going after weak claimants, not by slicing out the weakest claims.
69 Responses to “Centrist Senators Change Stimulus By Redistributing Wealth Upwards”
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February 6th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
can’t you take at least a little joy in seeing how pissed off a bunch of Republican Senators have been made by their inability to do more than snipe around the edges?
Not when Diaper Dave Vitter’s ‘NO MOENY 4 ACORNS’ amendment got 45 yea votes. Matt’s exactly right here, and while Krugman is politically naive about the possibility of starting off with a package over ONE TRILLION DOLLARS, he’s right that Lobsterpot and Huskerdoo would have trimmed off $100m from any bill just for bipartisan shits and giggles.
This is fucking over the poor for the sake of neither-fish-nor-flesh “centrism”, which gets applauded by the Village media because they’re all just horrible people.
February 6th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
I am far more frustrated with the fact that Congress hasn’t learned any lessons about subsidizing house prices and homeownership.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:18 am
The real question is what happens in conference. Surely the House will object to a lot of the centrist stupidity. If the conference report comes back and the Republicans filibuster, then lets do away with the pro-forma filibuster rules now in place and make the Republicans obstruct the conference report by filibustering in the well of the Senate in the face of 600,000 jobs a month.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:18 am
It was rather a joy to watch the pissed off Republican Senators take the floor moan and groan and decry the traitors in their midst. Lindsey Graham in particular had lots of dire warnings about what it all protends for bi-partisanship in the future.
I am coming to think that Obama may have seriously outfoxed those goons. Imagine what will happen the next time he meets with the Republican leadership regarding major legislation. They will have all kinds of suggestions on the matter, and he will remind them about what happened on the stimulus. He listened, he added things to please them, he removed things to appease them, and what did they do for him? Nada, nothing, zilch. They will have to be much more conciliatory on the next round if they want to have any influence at all.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:31 am
Yeah the GOP hysterics are fun to watch.
You have to especially savor McCain complaining about how this isn’t a bipartisan bill if only a few GOP Senators vote for it. This is the same guy who introduced a version that was all tax cuts, and that something like 36 GOP Senators voted for. When the far right is off in la-la land, there’s really not much room for bipartisan compromise.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:35 am
“I am far more frustrated with the fact that Congress hasn’t learned any lessons about subsidizing house prices and homeownership.”
“Keep people in their homes” is a masterful bit of political bullshit, a perfect sheeple con. Oh, and don’t forget millions in campaign $$$ from NAR, NAHB, etc.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:37 am
Jeebus, I’ve been a mealymouthed centrist my whole fricking life, and even *I’m* disgusted by the Collins-Nelson gang. And cosign with pseudonymous in nc about the goddamn villagers.
Matt is right that Paris is worth a mass — perspective, etc. — but I hope the next step is that we undo this in committee.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:46 am
Excellent content here and a nice writing style too – keep up the great work!
February 7th, 2009 at 12:47 am
Surely the House will object to a lot of the centrist stupidity.
The problem that lies ahead, though, is that the narrative has already cast the House Dems as overreaching commies who wanted billions of dollars to support the perverted arts. So they enter the conference as somehow Less Serious than Nelson, Collins and the rest of the weak tea brigade.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:50 am
You know, Obama talked about a tax cut for 95% of working people every damn day of his campaign. You’d think the stimulus should reflect that.
Maybe he should bring that up.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:55 am
pseudonymous in nc,
Do you have a book we can use to translate your posts into English?
February 7th, 2009 at 12:59 am
@carnap: it’s straightforward
weak tea brigade = people who think crappy weak tea is infinitely preferable both to real tea and to water
February 7th, 2009 at 1:01 am
I am glad to see Obama is going to be paying visits next week to the constituents of Mel Martinez and Dick Lugar.
February 7th, 2009 at 1:02 am
I am far more frustrated with the fact that Congress hasn’t learned any lessons about subsidizing house prices and homeownership.
As opposed to subsidizing other forms of overconsumption? I don’t think that subsidizing homeownership is a good idea, but (particularly if only homes that were already bought ae subsidized) it’s smarter than trying to stiulate peopel to buy more stuff they cannot afford.
We’re going through detox right now – that’s what the recession is – and Obama and the Congress has decided to fix the problem by giving us more heroin,
February 7th, 2009 at 1:06 am
Yes. This is what
conservative pricks in *centrists’* clothing“moderates” exist to do. (that sentence will look much better if this blog takes “strike” tags…)That, and extort campaign contributions from people with money.
What’s Nelson auditioning for, a role as Lieberman in the post-2012 caucus?
February 7th, 2009 at 1:10 am
Actually, if we’re going to play metaphor roulette, I’d say we’re in free fall right now — that’s what a recession is — and Obama is flying in with an extra parachute harness, trying to strap it to our back at 18,000 feet while a bettle-browed Bond villain with an (R) after his name tries to bite our ear off. (That’s what cable news is.)
February 7th, 2009 at 2:04 am
I hope that Senator “Scissorhands” Nelson is satisfied with his handiwork on the National Science Foundation budget. A zero increase in funding does not get anywhere near the five years of budget compression imposed by the Yankee-Texan. I guess he thinks dumping veteran scientists and engineers on to the unemployment rolls this March is the way to go. Thanks Uncle Ben, have a happy depression…Can someone spread some sawdust over that oil spot he left on the Senate floor?
February 7th, 2009 at 2:13 am
“Obama and the Congress has decided to fix the problem by giving us more heroin”
Actually… that would be what they do to heroin patients going through withdrawal. Well, in some countries. In others you just get synthetic heroin (methadone). I like the analogy though because detox can kill people if you don’t take the edge off.
See, the thing is… the SYSTEM is the problem. Leaving things alone won’t make shit go back to normal, it will destroy the system. And no that’s not a good thing. Just look at the great depression. Our economy may be an over-leveraged debt ridden piece of shit, but it’s still our economy and you don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Cold turkey isn’t the solution to everything. And sometimes it’s the worst decision you can make
February 7th, 2009 at 2:52 am
If the conference report comes back and the Republicans filibuster,
I am reasonably sure you can’t filibuster a conference report.
February 7th, 2009 at 3:32 am
I want to smack Susan Collins in the face with Ben Nelson’s toupee.
February 7th, 2009 at 5:41 am
This has been such a great show, I wonder what they’ll do in the health care episode?
February 7th, 2009 at 6:23 am
The Senate just gave America a sporkulus.
It sucks as tax policy, it sucks as spending policy, but it’s a bipartisan compromise so it must better than an individual tax spoon and and individual spending fork! Ah, the wonders of compromise as it’s own ideology.
Shorter Senate: The earth is round! The earth is flat! Let’s make the equator a square and call it a deal! Done.
It would be far better to start from scratch and pass a $250 billion tax cut bill AND a $500 billion spending bill and do them one after the other. Get commitments from the Gang of 3 (Snowe, Collins, Specter) that they will vote for the spending, get the commitment in public and then pass two reasonable bills. Holy crap are the Senate Dems a bunch of lame-os. The Detroit Lions put up more fight.
February 7th, 2009 at 7:20 am
Perhaps McCain and Gramm will realize that if they want to have a seat at the table, they have to start by rejecting some of the more absurd proposals floated by Coburn, DeMint and Thune. The serious GOP was identified by who was voting against the extreme amendments.
February 7th, 2009 at 7:48 am
Berry, is that you?
February 7th, 2009 at 7:56 am
This ia worse bill than even the original draft. Even more tax cuts and even less to spend on health care, education, the homeless, poverty reduction, the environment… The mighty O is no mighty change agent. More of the same!
http://www.sunstateactivist.org/ssablog/
February 7th, 2009 at 8:19 am
It would be far better to start from scratch and pass a $250 billion tax cut bill AND a $500 billion spending bill and do them one after the other. Get commitments from the Gang of 3 (Snowe, Collins, Specter) that they will vote for the spending, get the commitment in public and then pass two reasonable bills. Holy crap are the Senate Dems a bunch of lame-os. The Detroit Lions put up more fight.
Time is of the essence however. The longer this dragged on the better the Republicans would have fared. Also, the sooner the economy is stimulated the better the chance the stimulation will actually work. If it doesn’t work, the moderates can be blamed for watering it down, but of course if it doesn’t work we’re screwed.
Perhaps McCain and Gramm will realize that if they want to have a seat at the table, they have to start by rejecting some of the more absurd proposals floated by Coburn, DeMint and Thune. The serious GOP was identified by who was voting against the extreme amendments.
If the stimulus works, the moderates can be lionized by the Village media at the expense of the obstructionists, and maybe some of the more reasonable Republicans will come around to the view that they can get some of the reasonable things they want done if they play ball.
February 7th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Glad I found this site – I’m finding the content very useful – thanks!
February 7th, 2009 at 8:23 am
I believe the Republicans can filibuster a conference report but not a budget reconciliation bill. Nancy Pelosi has already come out hard against the cuts.
Obviously, this thing is far from over; the two competing bills are just the opening bids. What comes out of conference is the real deal; the “centrists” made a deal with themselves and not the House Democrats.
I will naively cling to hope that the Democratic leadership realize they have the advantage.
February 7th, 2009 at 8:32 am
Harry Reid is such a weak majority leader, and these “centrist” make me want to puke.
I fear they have watered down this legislation that it won’t be effective enough to truly do the job. Harry Reid has set us up for another pissing contest in June or September 2009 to clean up this bill and provide additional economical stimulus. The math is very simple. Vanish approximately $4-trillion in wealth in 6-months, and lose approximately 500,000 jobs a month, you start to see that this bill is like putting chewing gum in the breech.
I feel like protesting in Washington like they did in Iceland — banging pots and pans so loud until the bureaucrats could think straight.
February 7th, 2009 at 8:35 am
Why all of this skepticism about the centrist senators? They are indeed centrists, walking a fine and principled line between helping poorer Americans and killing them outright.
February 7th, 2009 at 8:35 am
They *can* filibuster a conference report, but let’s see if they’ve got the guts to, with the slope of the unemployment curve at 0.5%/mo. and Obama making a speaking tour of states he carried that have a Republican senator.
February 7th, 2009 at 8:38 am
If you just assume that every stage in the checks-and-balances system will result in further “redistributing wealth upwards”, you will rarely go wrong.
February 7th, 2009 at 8:53 am
I fear they have watered down this legislation that it won’t be effective enough to truly do the job. Harry Reid has set us up for another pissing contest in June or September 2009 to clean up this bill and provide additional economical stimulus. The math is very simple. Vanish approximately $4-trillion in wealth in 6-months, and lose approximately 500,000 jobs a month, you start to see that this bill is like putting chewing gum in the breech.
The math is simple but the psychology is complex. People have money to spend but don’t have the confidence. Once the economy turns the corner and the psychology changes a virtuous cycle will take hold. That’s why it was important to get the stimulus done quickly. My view is that if we aren’t seeing any positive signs whatsoever by late summer we could be in for a decade or so of slump and the bitchy left will have all sorts of things other than Obama’s bipartisanship to complain about.
The good news is that the global downturn will put heavy pressure on tinpot dictatorships like Venezuela, Iran and Burma. The bad news is that the IMF is back, salivating like a vampire at sunset.
February 7th, 2009 at 9:26 am
Actually… that would be what they do to heroin patients going through withdrawal. Well, in some countries. In others you just get synthetic heroin (methadone). I like the analogy though because detox can kill people if you don’t take the edge off.
Methadone is chemically distinct from heroin. This bill is not methadone, nor is it q small dose of heroin to take the edge off. The goal of this bill is essentially to get us re-addicted, and to keep us spending more than we make. (Methadone would be, e.g., subsidies to people who are on the margins of foreclosure, but only for people who already have a house, to try to keep too many foreclosures from destroying the banks).
What we need is an increase in productivity, not to be encouraged to go deeper into debt. But everyone wants something for nothing, so stimulus will pass anyway.
February 7th, 2009 at 9:28 am
The math is simple but the psychology is complex. People have money to spend but don’t have the confidence.
But we don’t have the productivity to support the spending. Once people are confident again and start spending, expect prices to shoot up 10%, 20% a year or more and a return to 1970s stagflation.
Of course, if your goal is to help the debtors at the expense of the savers by devaluing debts, I suppose that is what you want. Screw those who were responsible.
February 7th, 2009 at 9:31 am
DTM says
I’m sorry, but I don’t see how they didn’t already win this. They have defeated Obama in something he says he absolutely had to have. They have taken control of the Senate with willing enablers like Nelson.
Most importantly, they have weakened this bill to the point where it won’t work. In three months when everything is in the tank the will sit up and scream, “look liberalism failed and now we need to really cut taxes by lowering corporate taxes to 0.”
If this passes in its current form it will be an incredible loss not just for Obama, but for the country as well as for progressive governing ideas.
Reid MUST go. He is clearly in over his head.
February 7th, 2009 at 10:07 am
I’m not sure who’s more annoying — pontificating centrists, or my progressive pals like Choska who see every political event from a distance of 1 centimeter and have the volume knob stuck permanently on “Outrage.”
$775 bil is the target Obama was originally talking about. I don’t see why you conclude that would be a catastrophe — and in any case the conference committee isn’t done — and in the third case, the legislative process is rarely a all-or-nothing game.
February 7th, 2009 at 10:14 am
Indeed. You could tell it was just starting to dawn on people like Graham and McCain how much it was going to suck being the Detroit Lions of politics for at least the next couple years
You know, with all fo the Republicans that got defeated by Democrats in 2008, how come Bob conley couldn’t have defeated Lindsey Grahamnesty? I actually donated 50 bucks to the Conley campaign.
February 7th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Unless things changed, the homebuyer rebate applied to both new and existing construction, so it’s not even like it was well targeted to boost the construction industry.
The way the Republicans are talking, it sounds like if they were in charge they’d cut taxes to zero, wipe out all spending but the DoD, and take the whole country over the cliff.
February 7th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Dave, don’t get me wrong. I railed against the GOP’s excessive Offense Department spending during the Bush years, and I don’t think that their “Tax cuts, tax cuts” policy will do much to stimulate the economy either, seeing as the government is running a deficit and the money to run the government has to come from somewhere (if taxes are cut, it will be borrowed or printed).
The best stimulus plan I can conceive of is to bring our troops home – from overseas, from Iraq, mostly rom Afghanistan, from Japan, from Germany, etc. Take the money saved and do something useful with it.
Unless things changed, the homebuyer rebate applied to both new and existing construction, so it’s not even like it was well targeted to boost the construction industry.
Yeah, I’m not in favor of the rebate that the GOP proposed.
February 7th, 2009 at 11:21 am
“You know, with all fo the Republicans that got defeated by Democrats in 2008, how come Bob conley couldn’t have defeated Lindsey Grahamnesty?”
Because South Carolina is a backwards southern religious state that would vote for a turd sandwich if it had an R by its name? And I live there, I’d know.
Also, because Conley was a Ron Paul supporter who had close to zero funding or support or exposure, given that the SC Democratic Party is something close to nonexistent. And he still only lost by like 9 points. Look to Martin to see what would have happened were he a good candidate.
February 7th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Peter K.,
Don’t be dumb. Venezuela isn’t a dictatorship. They would have every right to be, but they aren’t.
They also, as of last month, have a lower unemployment rate than the United States. Chew on that.
February 7th, 2009 at 11:26 am
Enough of this. We lost. We cut some of the most stimulative programs and have a ’stimulus’ which is 48 percent tax cuts. Conference will not dramatically alter this more than tweaking a few elements in our favor. The contours are already there.
Now, this is terrible because it wont do what is needed. Stop talking about how silly the Republicans look. Who cares. They won. They were able to water down the bill so significantly as to kill its power, thus continuing the economic free fall and placing the blame on Obama.
We lost. Stop covering.
February 7th, 2009 at 11:35 am
They were able to water down the bill so significantly as to kill its power, thus continuing the economic free fall and placing the blame on Obama.
Oh, come on. It’s $40B less than the House bill which was essentially Obama’s plan untouched. You think $40B is the difference between economic freefall and a swift recovery? The Senate bill is better in a few ways but porbably a bit worse overall; the above hyperbole is a bit much though.
To the extent that the Republicans won, they won by default by the timing of this crisis. Even the biggest reasonable stimulus would leave us with weak employment and a large GDP gap by midterm elections.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
I don’t understand how aid to the states got cut from the bill. Isn’t that the biggest bang-for-the-buck stimulus there is? And aren’t senators supposed to look out for the interests of their states? Why doesn’t the White House have every state governor on speed-dial to lobby for this? Granted, there are a few (like the governor of SC, IIRC) who are auditioning for the role of Herbert Hoover, but they should be able to get 40+ governors (including plenty of Republicans and The Mighty Palin) without breaking a sweat. What are they waiting for?
February 7th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
I wonder what lame ass excuses those of you too stupid and shortsighted to understand why this is so bad are going to make when the Economy doesn’t improve, and the Democrats lose 5-6 seats in the Senate and 20 in congress in 2010, are unable to get any new bills through like you all moronically assume they will, and this cost us the White House.
You’ll probably stammer about how nobody could have forseen this, and that it would have been much worse if, for some unknowable and unexplained reason, nothing got passed. Which will be nothing but a lame cover for your own stupidity, Obama’s incompetence in this matter; and completely ignore that they could easy pass this under budget reconciliation rules.
February 7th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
And for the idiots talking about the conference comittee reconciliation, What proof do any of you have that this isn’t another lame, mind-reading attempt on your part.
Remember how you all claimed that of course Gregg had promised to vote for the stimulus bill, so it made sense to nominate him?
Remember how you claimed that Rahm was appointed to crush Republicans? It’s pretty clear that has was appointed so that Liberals would blame him and not Obama for every corporatist move that scumbag makes.
Whgo can forget the great ‘If he gives ground on the stimulus bill, Republicans will pass the EFCA!’ Bullshit. They won’t even confirm the labor Secretary.
I’m trying to figure out if folks like DTM are Straussian liars who really believe that the country is better off with a slave class and an elite class; or if they are just idiots who really shouldn’t be involved in any kind of power-game at all.
February 7th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Re: don’t understand how aid to the states got cut from the bill.
Was it cut from the bill entirely? Or just reduced somewhat. Not that it’s a good thing either, but it’s my understanding that the latter is the case and the substantial state aid remains in the bill.
By the way what was the GOP’s motivation in that? I can see why they cut things that benefitted liberal interest groups, but several GOP-dominated states are in very bad shape too (e.g., Florida, South Carolina) so aren’t they shooting themselves (or at least their state-level parties and officials) in the foot too?
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