By Request: Israeli Election
A bunch of folks asking about this. It seems the centrist Kadima Party will narrowly beat the right-wing Likud. But the broader right-wing bloc of Likud plus far-right Yisrael Beitenu and National Union looks set to have more seats than the center and left.
Consequently, it’s very hard to tell what will actually happen in terms of formation of a government. Tradition dictates that President Shimon Peres should give the opportunity to form a coalition to Kadima’s Tzipi Livni but putting a majority together would probably require her to somehow peel off a party of the right. In that case, you’d have a coalition whose main leaders are open to a peace deal but who couldn’t possibly make any such deal without collapsing the coalition. Alternatively, you could have a right/far-right alliance whose leadership would be opposed to dealmaking. Basically, the Palestinians will find that they’re without a serious partner for peace. Just as the Israelis have been complaining, leaders will either be too weak to make peace or else too opposed to peace to bargain with.
67 Responses to “By Request: Israeli Election”
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February 10th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
How would the Israelis have voted differently had Hamas not launched any rockets at Israel in the last year?
February 10th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Dude, check your numbers.
Kadima+Labor+Meretz=47. Shas, a former coalition partner, would give them about 56. Since the parties listed on the polls there don’t add up to 120 due to the smaller parties, she only needs to get 5 votes from the dozen or so seats not listed there.
YB, Likud, UTJ, and JH are only 52. Shas was included in both of the coalitions on the Haaretz article and no smaller parties were included.
Stay tuned.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
The notion that the Palestinians will find that they’re without a serious partner for peace is comic. Only when the Palestinians become willing to be serious partners for peace themselves will this be of consequence.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Amazing how low the Labor Party has fallen. And those guys founded Israel! Now they are beaten by far-right lunatics…
February 10th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Two genocide loving groups of thugs. Ain’t no difference.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Any idea how crazy it would get if the Arab parties were brought in?
Tell me how well negotiations are going regarding the West Bank.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
You should totally follow this with another post about how our political system unequivocally sucks and parliamentary government is uncomplicatedly teh awesommmezt.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
I see southpaw beat me to my post.
On the other hand, I’ll admit that MY’s skepticism that Congress could possibly improve the stimulus plan looks pretty good right now.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
With anti-peace parties winning elections on both sides of the Israeli/Palestinian borders, isn’t it now clear that there is no peace to broker?
Why are we still backing one side of this war?
February 10th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
Only when the Palestinians become willing to be serious partners for peace themselves will this be of consequence.
Take that one up with Martin McGuinness, ‘Seamus’.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
Any idea how crazy it would get if the Arab parties were brought in?
They can’t be brought in. There were times where a labour/left coalition in addition to the Arab parties could form a working government, but it can’t happen. It’s not politically possible to work with the Arab parties which is why Israeli democracy is such a joke.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
If the current tallies hold, a center-left coalition of Kadima, Labor, Meretz, Hadash, and Shas would garner 61 votes. Shas has been in coalitions like this before.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
Get ready for some serious horse-trading. Livni may well be asked to form a government, but it’s a big open question whether she’ll be able to. As pointed out above, Kadima+Labor+Meretz has only 47. If they incorporate a religious party (UTJ or Shas) and can get a deal with the Arab and Communist parties to support the government from the outside (such as the deal that propped up Yitzhak Rabin’s second government), then we could have a center-left(ish) government in Israel.
Chances are though, that won’t happen. The religious parties are relatively unfriendly to the peace process. And it’ll be hard to peel off a right-wing party when they can get a better deal by crowning Netanyahu king.
I would not be shocked if in the end this comes down to a Kadima-Labor-Likud national unity government, with Livni and Bibi alternating as PM, similar to the arrangement Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir had in the mid-80s.
This wouldn’t be the worst possible outcome, but it still does not lend itself well to peacemaking. My guess is that if there is going to be a two-state solution, the U.S. and the other major powers are going to have to start independently pursuing a two-state solution, such as negotiating directly with Arab states and the PLO to impose a solution on the parties.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
I find that result for Labour extremely satisfying. They got beaten by a Russian immigrant party ran by a national embarrassment, racist, eliminationist, crank.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Given the continued disfuncionality of the Israeli political process the World might be better off if Israel adopted the Belgian model.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Wow, tremendously depressing result for both of the Palestinians that are looking for a partner for peace.
Seriously, I am impressed that someone can write a sentence like this: “Basically, the Palestinians will find that they’re without a serious partner for peace” about a group of people that elected Hamas in their most recent election with a straight face. Kudos.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
If the Palestinians want a serious partner for peace, they could perhaps stop trying to murder Israelis.
Crazy suggestion, I know.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
Shas has already said before and after the election they prefer Likud….Livni’s chances of forming any government, let alone a center-left one, are slim, despite the victory.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
The Palestinians could pretty easily get the religions parties to partner with Kadima and enter the peace process.
All THAT would take is showing some genuine respect for the Jewish religion. The datiyim (religious) and the Palestinians do have a common ground of social conservatism.
They could also work pretty easily with Shas (the party of the “Arab Jews”, after all.) All that would take is some decency on their part.
But it won’t happen. But next time the Palestinian talking heads whine about the lack of a peace partner, keep in mind they could have one in a heartbeat.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
There’s not going to be any left or right government. Kadima + Likud + Labor, that’s my prediction. That would be the most stable and most “serious” coalition, by simply excluding all the parties whose interests are hopelessly parochial.
Despite their record success, a cordon sanitaire appears to have formed around Yisrael Beitenu. The Arab parties are also traditionally not relied upon, which leaves few options.
The only question is if Livni will be PM or if there will be some sort of rotation (Bibi could certainly accept to be finance or foreign minister and wield a lot of power as such). But this is a big win for Kadima and Livni.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
If the Palestinians want a serious partner for peace, they could perhaps stop trying to murder Israelis.
See, maybe you are ignorant of this, but the Palestinians aren’t: What Palestinians do has a negative correlation with what Israel does regarding settlement. Different members of the government has stated this at times. Something along the lines of “We need to take advantage of the calm”.
Two states died along time ago, there is no way to uncut this knot and Palestinians are naturally going to move away from it into a universal sufferage movement. When they get it (and they will, this can’t continue) those election results are going to be quite different.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Bwaahhaha! I’m pretty sure the last one figured that out about 20 years ago. I love how people are talking about the current state of the american economy in apocalyptic terms–and certainly the us economy is suffering–when the palestinian economy has at least 4x the us unemployment rate, probably much more (though it’s very difficult to even determine such stats accurately).
When you consider how corrupt and incompetent Fatah is and has been for its entire existence, it isn’t difficult to imagine why voters would eventually tire of it and vote for the opposition. And if you ask how the situation came to be as it is, it’s a direct result of decades of concrete Israeli policy to destroy the palestinian economy, treat millions of people as vermin, and destroy their collective will into submission. Another failure for the Green Lantern theory of foreign policy.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
That universal suffrage is a lot more likely to happen with Gaza & a remnant of the West Bank being dumped at the doorsteps of Jordan & Egypt (they hold elections, you know).
February 10th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Let’s try and domesticize this: who of the smaller parties wants the biggest payoffs, and which of those are politically feasible? The ‘legal bribery’ process starts now.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Actually, this is a very surprising result. the Kadima party actually won more mandates then they did in the previous election. A lot of so-called experts expected that the Kadima party would fade away after Sharon was out of the picture. What is most likely to happen is that Kadima, Labor, and Likud will form a government, leaving everybody else in opposition. Probably with Livni as Prime Minister, Bibi as foreign minister, and Barak as defense minister (although as Mr. Andrew commented, Livni and Bibi may trade off the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister positions like Shamir and Peres did in the 1980s). Hopefully, they will enact some reforms in the electoral system, at least raising to bar for getting mandates to 5% and possibly allotting a fraction of the Knesset to constituency based representation (say 1/2 list and 1/2 constituency).
February 10th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
“When you consider how corrupt and incompetent Fatah is and has been for its entire existence, it isn’t difficult to imagine why voters would eventually tire of it and vote for the opposition.”
Because a 3rd alternative, a party neither corrupt nor genocidal&theocratic is beyond the ability of the Palestinians.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Re Ed Marshall
There will be a 1 state solution when the shrimps learn to whistle (old Russian proverb, once used by Nikita Khrushchev).
February 10th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
SLC, my guess is it will happen in my lifetime ,but not in yours.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Because a 3rd alternative, a party neither corrupt nor genocidal&theocratic is beyond the ability of the Palestinians.
It is certainly beyond the ability of the Israelis. You conveniently don’t mention the fact that Israel has done 99% of the killing lately.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
True, “why oh why”, that Hamas has proven unable to carry out its explicitly genocidal intentions.
The IDF, however, has been able to do so for years and has not done it. Which shows who has what intentions.
And who is a shrill twit.
February 10th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Re Ed Marshall
I see that Mr. Marshall has been partaking of the nose candy lately.
February 10th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
I find comparisons to Israelies and nazis to be distastful to say the least–the same goes for accusations of genocide. Nonetheless, if we are talking about genocide here, one side is much closer to it than the other–and looking at the numbers clearly shows it isn’t the palestinians.
As noted by Edward Said, Arafat mainly played the role of incompent thug as given him by the Israelis. They were perfectly fine with him destroying freedom of speech, spying on the population, destroying his internal enemies, etc. as long as he gave them most of everything they wanted (spefically the illusion of a peace process) and didn’t make too much of a fuss they (and the us) had no problem giving that impotent dictator the trappings of office and quite a bit of financial compensation he happily disbursed to his assorted cronies. When you have no freedom of speech, you have no culture, and when you have no culture you have no real critique of power–except for religion. When Fatah predictably failed there was only one political movement that had the opportunity to succeed it; again, this is a predictable result of US and Israeli foreign policy, so the phony moralism that condemns the palestinians is distasteful–”we gave them democray [not really] but they weren’t supposed to use it!
February 10th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
they didn’t give them democray, or even democracy!
February 10th, 2009 at 7:17 pm
Client # 11: Ever notice how the hard care Zionists on this site never define what “peace” would mean? I guess it’s because in America telling to people to leave their ancestral homes so that your agnostic Russian relatives can take over isn’t called “peace.”
Watch how quickly SLC replies with a comment of low-to-no wattage.
February 10th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Peace means the absence of war, Mythbuster.
No reason for “hard core zionists” to drag a dictionary along.
February 10th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Partners for peace? What the hell are you talking about? The Palestinians are split in half and are killing each other. Israel is the only long standing democracy in the region. The citizens voted and it works out that there won’t be peace. So be it. Launching thousands of rockets probably didn’t help the process if you wanted peace. What BS!
February 10th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
Watch how quickly SLC replies with a comment of low-to-no wattage.
SLC has presumably resumed fapping to photo-montages of Avigdor Lieberman captioned with “let’s exterminate all the vermin!” in Russian.
Which is regrettable, given that his first comment was on the mark: the smart haggle is a Labor-Likud-Kadima grand coalition that reforms the electoral system and limits the power of the smaller parties to demand payoffs. The likely haggle is Bibi and everything to his right, given that Bibi is a power-hungry bastard and he’s spent most of the night insulting Livni. I’m sure Bill Kristol is on the phone right now.
I’m not sure if the data exists, but I’d like to know how many of YB/NU’s voters came from the West Bank: that’s the thing neither Bibi nor Livni wants to deal with.
February 10th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Mythbuster: Yeah, even mentioning things like the right of return (or at least some financial compensation) is taboo. Questioning things like the purposes of settlements, walls, checkpoints, etc. is unforgivable and met with silence or dissimulation. But, however cruel (and counterproductive) palestinian violence is, one can only imagine how Israel would react if the situation were reversed and arabs were destroying its domestic economy: 20-60% unemployment rate, stagnant or declining economic growth for decades, etc.–not to mention if the prisoner and casualty situations were reversed. The two state solution is dead as there is no way israel will actually some form of self determination for palestinians…of course there is no way they will be granted full citizenship either, as that might have unpleasant consequences for the future of Israeli “democracy”.
Ah well, just a few more decades in purgatory for a people who have no rights because of where they were born and who have no future but to be the pawns of Israeli and US foreign policy. Plus ca change…
February 10th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
pseudonymous in nc: Ah, yes, I forgot to make a snarky comment about the wonderfully civilized racism of Avi Lieberman. Commenters can feel free to make up their own.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:15 pm
Israel is the only long standing democracy in the region.
Why do righties always say this?
Turkey has been a democratic republic longer than Israel.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
Client #11, financial compensation is only taboo on the Palestinian side. Israel has been willing to discuss it from 1948 onwards.
As for the right of return being taboo, who the hell would VOLUNTARILY agree to become a minority among Sunni Arabs? As bad as the rockets and bombings are, it beats being treated the way Egyptian Copts are treated.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
Is it off topic to mention that this bears on Matt’s bizarre fixation on what wouldn’t ever happen anyhow, remaking the U.S. Constitution into the charter for a parliamentary system. I can imagine good outcomes and bad outcomes, rapid solutions and hopeless deadlocks, progress and also times, as perhaps a delegate coalition in 1992 would have perpetuated GOP rule.
But even apart from that, it’s still just plain uninformed and silly, a blogger’s hobby horse best abandoned. As political systems, western democracies have had enough in common that one can take a civics lesson or textbook lesson in American government as valuable in analytic as much as moral terms. Did Matt miss that freshman course?
February 10th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
if we are talking about genocide here, one side is much closer to it than the other–and looking at the numbers clearly shows it isn’t the palestinians.
If Hamas had anywhere near the military capability of Israel, they would have finished the job that Hitler started a long time ago. This isn’t speculation on my part, they happily say this in their charter.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
uhhhhh….the original Israeli settlers?
Then maybe the Israeli policies that led to the rise of Hamas weren’t such great ideas after all?
February 10th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
“Is it off topic to mention that this bears on Matt’s bizarre fixation on what wouldn’t ever happen anyhow, remaking the U.S. Constitution into the charter for a parliamentary system. I can imagine good outcomes and bad outcomes, rapid solutions and hopeless deadlocks, progress and also times, as perhaps a delegate coalition in 1992 would have perpetuated GOP rule.”
It’s more worthwhile than most of the discussion here.
Parliamentary rule is a necessary evil for Israel (a decennial census and redistricting would be a nightmare — Lebanon is about 80 years overdue for one and they don’t dare try it).
But for America? Look at Israel’s marginal parties. The American system keeps those parties where they belong: in the wilderness.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:26 pm
Client #11: As for the right of return being taboo, who the hell would VOLUNTARILY agree to become a minority among Sunni Arabs?
uhhhhh….the original Israeli settlers?
[end quote]
The original settlers were naive idealists. A lot of them got massacred. The rest learned.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
That’s nicely put, Omri.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
The comparative government stuff, that is.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
The original settlers were naive idealists.
Those “naive idealists” founded a country from nothing.
The naive mass murderers currently in charge of Israel think their war crimes will bring peace and prosperity to their country, when the opposite is true.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
Israel’s parliamentary system is atypical and characterized by its extreme form of proportional representation.
Plenty of other parliamentary democracies have stable governments – the key is how the representatives are elected: single member or multi-member; first-past-the-post or proportional representation and if the latter, then how is it implemented – a list system with a high thresshold? Mixed-membership? Or, as Israel does, a party list with an extremely low threshold for election?
February 10th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Why oh why:
Those “naive idealists” founded a country from nothing.
Those naive idealists came to a region where the dominant community regarded them as bound by God to a place of submission and humiliation (Sharia law- gotta love it). They did not expect that they would have to fight to establish otherwise. Seriously. They did not know this. Read what they wrote at the time. But, they wised up.
February 10th, 2009 at 11:49 pm
I see that Mr. Marshall has been partaking of the nose candy lately.
I feel pretty good about my predictive skills these days. I don’t know why you aren’t embarassed to high hell about yours. Obama birth certificate? Hillary as the nominee? I’d think after a certain point regurgitating a diet of Ynet and the like would result in cognitive disonance.
I’m quite certain that the entire narrative you cling to is falling apart in real time. It really didn’t have to be this way, and it’s sad in a certain respect that I don’t expect you to live long enough to see it repudiated. It will be though, the writing is on the wall. Your contribution to the post-mortem history of Der Judenstatt will be hashed out by a generation behind me, but that’s how it’s going to go down.
February 11th, 2009 at 12:09 am
The Palestinians shouldn’t be worried about the composition of the Israeli government.
They should be figuring out how to kill the motherfuckers.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:34 am
Man, SLC, then next 5 years are going to be SWEET! It’s gonna be like a party all the time.
As an American liberal, I can’t fucking WAIT for the awesomeness that will emanate from a right/far-right/far-far-right coalition government doing EXACTLY the things you want them to do.
You will SO be proven right by how shibby this war is gonna be.
February 11th, 2009 at 9:00 am
“My guess is that if there is going to be a two-state solution, the U.S. and the other major powers are going to have to start independently pursuing a two-state solution, such as negotiating directly with Arab states and the PLO to impose a solution on the parties.”
Ah, yes, if you mean the UN and the US needs to “impose a solution” on Israel. If you mean impose one on the Palestinians, good luck with that. Because without Israel agreeing to not make war on the “Palestinian state”, a two-state solution will quickly devolve into all-out genocidal war by the Israelis on the Palestinians.
The first fucking rocket some Hamas faction throws will result in total war by Israel on the “Palestinian state”. Which is precisely what Israel would like to happen so they can finish their slow-motion ethnic cleansing rather more quickly.
The solution that needs to be imposed is the declaration by the UN that Israel is an illegal, rogue, terrorist state and is therefore dissolved.
Then the UN can revisit 1947 and build a new state covering Jews and Palestinians by sidelining everybody who is in Fatah, Hamas and the Israeli government.
That is the only solution with a snowball’s chance in hell of succeeding.
February 11th, 2009 at 9:02 am
“they wised up.”
In other words, via the Palmach, the Irgun and the Haganah, they became Al-Qaeda-level terrorists.
Now they’re bitching about the people they oppressed turning to terrorism.
What goes around comes around. Blow-back’s a bitch.
February 11th, 2009 at 10:48 am
Your comments say a lot more about you than they say about the first generation Israelis, Hack.
You want to talk “blowback”?
Talk about the Palestinian massacres of Jews in 1840, 1860, 1892, 1904, 1921, 1929.
Long before there was an Israel. Or Zionists.
Talk about how Sharia law encouraged those massacres.
Then talk blow back.
February 11th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Well, if there were such massacres, that merely emphasizes why the Zionist concept was so much stupid horseshit from the git-go.
Trying to take over a country where the inhabitants outnumber you and dislike you is pretty frickin’ stupid to begin with.
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